Koster 34%
Donnelly 32%
Harris 32%
Williams 2%

Luetkemeyer - Missouri 9th - REP
Baker - Missouri 9th - DEM
Hulshof - Governor - REP
Page - Lt. Governor - DEM
Harris - Attorney General - DEM
State Treasurer - Zweifel - DEM

The 9th Congressional primaries and 7th Senatorial race are complete toss-ups, but here are my predictions:

GOP Governor: Hulshof
DEM Attorney General: Harris
DEM Treasurer: Zweifel
DEM 9th Congressional: Baker
GOP 9th Congressional: Luetkemeyer
DEM 5th Senatorial: Hubbard
GOP 7th Senatorial: Cunningham
DEM 15th Senatorial: Trout
GOP 31st Senatorial: Pearce

I agree with Jack, Koster narrowly wins. Onder in the 9th district. Hulshof for governor. And Bill Haas will lose again, due to bad karma for cheating me out of a cup of coffee.

Lt. Gov

Carter 43%
Page 39%
Plattner 11%
Tolbert 3%
Metzger 3%
Williams 1%

There’s really someone out there that thinks Page is going to lose? Ridiculous.

And I think as this blog said earlier today, the heat is keeping people in.
That means the primaries voters will be a concentrated pool of hard-core party activists. That (thankfully) spells a loss for Koster. Real Dems don’t support wolves in sheeps clothing.

Governor: Hulshof
LG: Page
AG: Harris
Treasurer: Zweifel
Ninth: Onder and Gaw

Lt. Governor’s race - Sam Page
Attorney General’s race - Jeff Harris
state Treasurer - Clint Zweifel
5th state Senate - Rodney Hubbard
57th state Rep. - TD El-Amin
60th state Rep. - Jamilah Nasheed
61st state Rep. - Chris Carter
63rd state Rep. - toss-up, depends on 6th ward voter turn-out
64th state Rep. - Rachel Storch
65th state Rep. - Michele Kratky
67th state Rep. - Mike Colona
108th state Rep. - Jake Hummel
Circuit Attorney - Jennifer Joyce
Sheriff - Jim Murphy
city Treasurer - Larry Williams

Gov - Hulshof, but narrowly, and Nixon, but with his token opponent getting a respectable total, maybe 20%
LG - Page and Kinder, both handily. Page wins especially big among voters annoyed by Carter’s robocalls.
Treas - will be decided late, with 4 candidates in double digits
AG - Koster narrowly. Donnelly wins StL area but nowhere else. Low turnout by young voters dooms Harris. Koster carries outstate.
2nd CD - Pentland, with Haas a surprising 2nd. Again, 4 candidates in double digits.
9th CD - Baker and Luetkemeyer. Both primaries feature 4 candidates in double digits. Baker rides women’s vote to victory, but Bode surprisingly strong, taking votes expected to go to Gaw. Low turnout by young voters dooms Olivo (thank God!). Onder hurt by MRL betrayal and anti-StL bias.

I could be mistaken, but if you look at the ORACLE’s 2004 predictions and musings — they were not just off, but ridiculously off. If you want a link, I can look it back up.

Don’t ge me wrong, I like the ORACLE, but his predictions have proved hopeful instead of insightful.

Chad Carter
314-591-0169
chad@vote4carter.com