Why should Missouri lose seats when we’ve actually gained in population?

Here’s a crazy idea (crazy in that it will never happen, despite it being a good idea.) Expand the number of seats in Congress. I mean, it’s held steady at 435 since 1911, when our population was less than a third of what it is now. To have our representatives closer to the people, it would be well worth reducing the number of people they represent. The Constitution merely says that we can’t make the number greater than 1 per 30,000, and gives the power to Congress to expand its ranks.

What a really bad idea! Just what we need… more mouths feeding at the public trough.

That said this will give us, finally, the chance to say goodbye to Lacy Clay. The 1st and 3rd districts are surrounded by a sea of red, and in the battle to keep one of the two districts blue I’m betting Russ wins it.

Yeah, yeah, many of you would say ‘crave up the 2nd district, and use it to keep both the 1st and the 3rd. We don’t like Akin anyway.’

All well and good… but doing so would put enough GOP voters into each of the remaining districts to make them both susceptible to swinging to, and being held by, a Republican… something that neither Lacy or Carnahan would allow.

Clark, they can’t get anything done with 435 of them so how would more be a good idea? Just more stalemates.

As a resident of the First, I am willing to see it go to Texas. I’d like to see Lacy win down there.

Clark’s right; I think the same thing; why should people be denied their represenative if their population has stayed the same or gone up? No reason Congress shouldnt expand their ranks; some public heat, perhaps, but not from states that are going to lose a seat. If population has tripled with no increase in representatives, and much more and complex problems to solve, the least we can do is keep the ratio of people to reps the same from here on. Could have a compromise: those scheduled to increase do so, but those scheduled to lose, dont unless they’ve lost population proportionately. I think I’ll introduce such legislation. After I beat Akin in 2010. I think I’ll run as a Republican; only fair to represent the more conservative values and interests of the district; I’m sort of a moderate, Rockefeller/Schwartenegger/Bloomberg Republican, liberal social issues conservative fiscal issues anyhow.

They will NEVER end a predominantly black district in the St. Louis area. Why do you think the 1st was put together like it was? The black exodous from the city into North County created the way the 1st district is now situated. Besides, if you take the population of just Lincoln, Warren and St. Charles counties, you would have enough for a “new” seat.

It makes much more sense to have one rep for St. Louis City, one for St. Louis County, one for the western area and one for the southern and southwestern area. That would balance the populations of the districts and the representation as well.

1st Dist-City of St. Louis

2nd Dist-St. Louis County

3rd Dist-Jefferson, Franklin, St. Gen, Perry(as far south as you need to go for balance)

4th Dist-Lincoln, Warren and St. Charles Counties (because they have gained the most in population the past 10 years)

Political implications: The projected gains and losses would move 7 electoral votes from Obama to McCain. Obama would still win if he won all the same states, but by less. (Note: one seat-losing state is missing, because Michigan is listed twice.)

In MO, redistricting will be interesting. The legislature gets the first shot, and compromises will be necessary for a legislative solution. Republicans won’t control everything (just as they haven’t since at least 1921) because Nixon is assured being Governor in 2011 and can veto a Republican gerrymander, but Democrats are unlikely to seize control of either legislative body in 2010, especially the senate, where the GOP has a better than 2-1 edge and only half the seats are up between now and redistricting. Nixon will probably play it tough, knowing that the courts are the backup redistricters and confidant that the “nonpartisan” judges selected by a process skewed towards the Democrats will see things the Democrats’ way. A democratic gerrymander would expand all the urban districts at the expense of the Republican rural districts. The most vulnerable incumbent is the rookie, Republican Luetkemeyer, who could be combined with either Skelton (unlikely) or Graves or Akin.

There is an important legal reason why “[t]hey will NEVER end a predominantly black district in the St. Louis area.” Court decisions prevent eliminating a minority seat when one could reasonably be drawn. The folks most interested in watering down Clay’s district are Democrats, because they want to move reliably Democrat north county blacks into the 2nd district to flip Akin’s seat, while wasting more west county Republicans in Clay’s district. At a 50-50 black-white ratio, the district is already constitutionally suspect, and only survived court challenge because nobody bothered to challenge it. The only constitutional way to expand Clay’s district is to expand into the newly black areas of south city, probably including Carnahan’s house. If Russ and Clay both ran for that district, I’ll take tsquare’s bet, because Clay would win easily. But that contest won’t happen, because a congressman isn’t required to live in the district in which he runs (which is why Bill Haas, Republican Chris Sander and a bunch of Libertarian congressional candidates were allowed to run in the districts they did). Russ would take on Akin in a district that would include a lot of Russ’ current district.

Who wins a contest in which either Akin or Carnahan has to lose? The public!

LittleOne’s solution (one district for city and one for county) runs afoul of the equal population requirement (one-person one-vote). The county’s population is about triple the city’s.

Oracle,

Thanks for catching the double Michigan — New York is the other state on pace to lose a seat.

Can you tell me where in the Constitution it says you can’t fool with a minority district? Thank you for giving me the answer “the courts skew towards the Democrats.” What about all of the disenfranhised here in the Central County who are sacrified to the alter of the Clay dynasty. Clay never even comes out here and could care less about us. Don’t we deserve representation? Clay’s district used to go much farther south, until Gepardt couldn’t win in the south county area anymore. Move Clay into South City and let Prince Russ fend for himself.

More like “not growing as fast or as eager to embrace migrant populations of questionable immigration status as Texas, Arizona, and Georgia.”