Blunt, left, and Carnahan

WASHINGTON — A poll to be released tomorrow affirms what most political observers already know — that Missouri’s Senate race shaping up between Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt is about as close as it gets.

The poll sheds light on how one of the nation’s marquee election contests next year likely could be decided — by independents and partisan intensity.

The survey by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-aligned firm in North Carolina, shows Carnahan polling 1 percent higher than Blunt — the same margin as ten months ago when she was pitted against Blunt and other hypothetical GOP candidates.

Tom Jensen, spokesman for the polling company, referred to the Missouri findings as a panelist this morning along with other pollsters in an election preview sponsored by Congressional Quarterly and Roll Call.

In a discussion about the extreme partisanship pollsters are seeing these days, Jensen told the gathering that Carnahan is getting only 5 percent of the Republican vote. Likewise, Blunt, from southwestern Missouri, is getting almost no Democratic backing.

Across the country, Republicans are much more unified at this point than the Democrats, added Jensen, whose company is polling in selected races and has no paying client in Missouri.

He spoke later with STLtoday.com about more of the Missouri findings. Nearly everyone in and around politics is talking these days about the significance of independents next year based on the results of GOP victories in gubernatorial races this month in Virginia and New Jersey. Missouri is no different.

In a somewhat confusing finding, the Public Policy poll will show that Carnahan has a 13 percent higher favorability rating than Blunt among independent voters yet trails Blunt by 12 percent among independents, Jensen said.

Those numbers speak in part to Carnahan’s need to distance herself from Democrats in Congress, who are especially unpopular among non-aligned voters. It also may help explain why Carnahan has been unwilling to take hard and fast positions on the health-care overhaul and other thorny congressional issues that might be gone from the public’s radar screen a year from now.

“Why tick off the people who are already ticked off about health-care?” Jensen said.

Pollsters heard familiar names when they asked people to identify their favorite — and least favorite –Missouri governor in recent times: John Ashcroft, a Republican who went on to become a senator and the nation’s attorney general, came out on top; Matt Blunt, another Republican, was mentioned most often as least favorite.

But Jensen noted that even those Republicans who gave a thumbs-down to Matt Blunt said they would be willing to vote for his father, Roy.

Summing up, Jensen said his survey results show that the race “is going to be highly partisan because neither candidate has much crossover apeal.”

He added: “It’s going to come down to independents and who can get their voters out.”