What Obama coalition? Takeaways from a Tuesday
Virgina Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell
WASHINGTON — Wednesday mornings after off-year elections always bring over-generalizations.
But the results of Tuesday’s elections — in which the GOP won governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey and Democrats captured a House seat in New York — appeared to deliver distinct messages for the closely contested races next year in Missouri and Illinois:
– Incumbent Wake-up Call? The party that held the three offices in question no longer does. As GOP consultant Bill McInturff put it, there are some “virulently anti-government, ticked-off people” out there. More proof: New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg barely won re-election despite spending $100 million of his fortune (for a job that pays him $1 a-year.)
– Always the Economy, Stupid: Over half the voters in both Virginia and New Jersey said they were very worried about the economy, similar to exit polling last year. Like last November, they were looking for someone to blame.
– Obama Rebuke? Of course the returns signaled worries about the country’s direction even though President Barack Obama remains personally popular. His spokesman said today that he wasn’t tuned into the returns, but there’s little doubt that he and his advisers will be weighing Democratic losses in figuring how they proceed with a complex agenda.
– Indys Shifting? In Virginia, a border state with similarities to Missouri, 60 percent of independents supported Republican Bob McDonnell in his victory over Creigh Deeds.
– Youth Snoozing Again? Maybe they were too busy studying for mid-terms or drinking beer. Perhaps they need the sort of stimulation from a candidate like Obama. But in Virginia, just 10 percent people under 30 voted yesterday — less than half of the youth turnout when Obama won there in 2008. It was similar in New Jersey.
– Conservative Revolt Brewing? Republicans would really be crowing today if it weren’t for the GOP’s surprise loss of the House seat in upstate New York they’ve held since 1872 in a vote split caused by the emergence of a Conservative Party candidate. In a dozen or more races around the country — including Illinois’ Senate contest — GOPers thinking they have claims to seats are threatened from the right.
– Blue Dogs Nervous? Given Tuesday’s results, moderate Democrats, especially those in swing districts, surely will be looking over their shoulders in the months ahead when called upon to make tough votes on issues like health insurance reform and climate change legislation.
– Kaine Looking Lame? Tim Kaine is Virginia’s governor until early next year. He’s national chairman of the Democratic Party. He’s a Kansas City native and a Mizzou grad. He’s also looking fairly ineffective today considering that the guy in his state in a marquee race got pole-axed by 18 points after getting outspent 2-1.
As Erick Erickson at RedState.com said:
“The Love Affair is Over: In 2008 Independents Proved They Weren’t Racist by Voting Obama. In 2009, Independents Vote GOP to Prove They Aren’t Socialist.”
Blue dogs: listen to the voters or to Queen Nancy. You can not vote for HR 3200 and get re-elected.
Given Tuesday’s results, moderate Democrats, especially those in swing districts, surely will be looking over their shoulders in the months ahead when called upon to make tough votes on issues like health insurance reform and climate change legislation.
Let us note that Creighton Deeds is just about the bluest blue-dog in this nation. He went down to a flaming defeat in a state that has recently rewarded many more progressive democrats. Perhaps the take-home message should be that Democrats should be more, not less, overtly progressive?
Erick Erickson is quite possibly the stupidest person writing for any marquee blog in the country, and that’s saying a lot.
And another thing to take away: Talk radio cannot win elections for republicans, case in point NY23! Whether it’s the NFL of NY23 Ole Rush just keeps on losing. 2010 is a long way off, it all depends on the ECONOMY.
The “message” is that there were two Governor’s races and a smattering of others. Yet MSNBC and others were calling it “Super Tuesday”?! Give me a break….
The message here is that the Congressional races will be hotly contested next year. Look for the usual party lines:
“Do Nothing Republicans wnat to reward their rich friends with more tax breaks for the wealthiest, while saying NO to health care for the rest of us.”
“Tax and Spend Democrats are at it again…”
In other words, it will be which parties get the most boots on the ground and phone and e-mail networks going. The Obama campaign showed the way and the Republicans were caught snoozing. I doubt that they will be so slow again.
In my fantasy world, the next year’s campaigns will discuss issues thoroughly and honesty, so the voter can make an intelligent choice.
In the real world we have Rush, Beck, Coulter and others (fill in your own names) who will see that this does not happen.
Nobama, Pelosi and Reid had better read the tea leaves…..if they pass this so called health care, which will socialize medicine in this country,
and which the people certainly don’t want, Dimocrats will lose big in 2010 and we can kiss Nobama and his radicals goodbye in 2012. I predict the Dimocrats will lose at least 50 seats, possibly 70, in 2010. With the GOP back in control of Congress, that will neuter Nobama for the next two years.
“… Pelosi and Reid had better read the tea leaves…..if they pass this health care, which will medicine in this country,… Republicans will lose big in 2010 and in 2012. I predict the Republicans will lose at least 50 seats, possibly 70, in 2010. With the GOPin the back seats of Congress, …for the next two years.”
See Frank, I just removed your perjoratives and corrected some of your spelling so your comment now reads better.
What have Blue Dogs Democrats done to merit all this courting by the Party? They weren’t among the people who phone banked, canvassed door-to-door, registered voters and donated money to the campaign that elected Obama and majorities in both chambers. And it’s a safe bet that they won’t be among the energized in future campaigns. I and the volunteers with whom I worked are perplexed, dismayed or fuming. We thought we sent a clear message in 2008. There was another on 11/03/09 when we stayed home. What reactions did Democratic leadership expect?
It seems to pander to orchestrated publicity stunts. All the honor cards were removed from the deck early health care reform negotiations. Lobbyists for a financial services sector that demonstrated incompetence and lousy judgment get to block attempts at updating regulatory standards. That’s not what activists and independents voted for in 2008!
Perhaps Blue Dogs are inadequate at informing their constituencies as well as listening. In future elections, we’ll probably hold our noses and vote for you vs. the other guy – that is, if our manicure appointment doesn’t run late. It wouldn’t be smart to count on us!