WASHINGTON — Maybe, which is why political junkies in places with red-hot races next year — like Missouri and Illinois — will be examining results from three contests tomorrow as a guide for 2010.

There are favorable trends beyond history for Republicans heading into the mid-term elections. And they could show up in Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and in a House special election in New York that has drawn wide attention because of the success of Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Easiest to predict is Virginia’s election for governor,  where Republican and ex-state attorney general Bob McDonnell looks on the verge of wiping out state Sen. Creigh Deeds, judging by his double-digit lead in polls. Virginia, of course, is one of traditional GOP states that voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

In New Jersey, the race between Gov. Jon Corzine and ex-U.S. Attorney Chris Christie is tougher to call given polls showing them running close. But pollsters note that it’s rare when governors win re-election with such high unfavorable ratings (Corzine’s is over 50 percent) and voters in a foul mood.

The New York election has received loads of attention (and money) from across the country and took a weird turn over the weekend when Dede Scozzafava, the moderate Republican who had drawn the wrath of right-leaning candidates across the land (including Missouri), dropped out and threw her support to the Democrat in the race, Bill Owens. Vice President Joe Biden heads to New York today in hopes of giving Owens a boost.

So what would a victory by the Conservative Party’s Hoffman mean? That conservatives are back after predictions that their Reagan-inspired movement had run its course? Or perhaps that Republicans can wind up in disarray when the GOP’s angry fringe rises up?

Two of Washington’s top pollsters, one Republican and one Democrat, talked with reporters this morning about how they’re viewing Tuesday’s elections.

To Bill McInturff, who has polled for Sen. John McCain and dozens of other Republicans, a key finding in polls heading into tomorrow’s votes is the intensity of Republican voters — fueled by concerns about government spending and Democrat-proposed health-care reform.

“What it looks like so far is that without President Obama on the ballot, Democrats are having a difficult time marshaling energy,” he added.

McInturff predicted that Republican successes tomorrow would enter into the thinking of Democratic moderates in Congress, who are being asked by Obama to cast tough votes on health reform, climate change legislation and perhaps immigration.

“There are only so many profiles-in-courage votes you can make if you’re a Blue Dog Democrat,” he said.

McInturff said that Tuesday’s results also could help shape of next year’s elections. “If tomorrow goes well for Republicans, it will have an enormous impact on candidate recruitment and money,” he said.

Mark Mellman, a pollster for many prominent Democrats, asserted that what Republicans are seeing now could mean trouble down the line if GOP candidates are pushed to adopt positions out of step with the public. 

Mellman said his party understands that times have changed since the last two elections when Democrats captured the White House and more than 50 seats in the House. He noted that just two governors in recent times have won re-election with the likes of Corzine’s dismal job ratings. (One of them was former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who was drummed out of office after winning a second term.)

“It’s going to be a different cycle for us. But that’s the ebb and flow of politics,” he said. “There is going to be a certain amount of despair and soul-searching partly because of overly broad generalizations in the media.”