Will Wellemeyer’s arm hold up in 2nd season as starter?
THE WATERCOOLER
QUESTION: Todd Wellemeyer pitched 191 innings last season, more than double the number of innings he’d ever pitched at the major league level. He went 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA, exceeding most expectations. Do you see the innings load becoming a problem for Wellemeyer, or should he only get stronger in his second season as a full-time starter?
JOE STRAUSS
Wellemeyer missed a start last June with an elbow impingement, making his 191 innings even more impressive. Barring a recurrence of elbow problems, 190 innings is certainly realistic. He continues to improve his curveball. This is his walk year entering free agency. Plenty of reasons to expect a solid second act.
BERNIE MIKLASZ
Wellemeyer had to go on the DL with an inflamed elbow in 2007, after he’d been converted to starter. Last season he avoided the DL, but did have minor elbow problems, and he was held out of the rotation for a couple of turns in June. The elbow may have bothered him some in July, when Wellemeyer had an ERA of 5.88 in six starts. But he finished strong. I was surprised that Wellemeyer overcame the issue as well as he did; he had a 3.01 ERA and allowed a batting average of .234 over his final 13 starts.
Has he learned to pace himself instead of maxing out on every pitch? That’s the question. Either way, I think the Cardinals will manage Wellemeyer well enough to keep him reasonably healthy. They have to be prudent. Last year I believe Wellemeyer pitched a couple of times when he was less than fully sound, and in one of those starts he took a horrific beatdown from the Phillies at Busch Stadium on June 13. After that, he didn’t pitch again for two weeks. That was smart. And I think the Cardinals will be more careful in 2009. If so, he should be fine.
DERRICK GOOLD
One of the accepted rules of thumb when it comes to pitchers is they break down the year after a career-push of innings. A notable exception: Braden Looper. After the making the leap into the rotation in 2007 the career reliever threw 199 innings in 2008. He didn’t have the lag expected and pitched not only stronger but better. In many ways, Wellemeyer is Looper. Strong. Durable frame. He’s conditioned now as a starter. The evidence sayS Wellemeyer will have trouble the year after packing on the innings. The eye says Wellemeyer will pull a Looper.
RICK HUMMEL
Not having pitched many innings earlier in his career actually should benefit Wellemeyer, who is strong enough to handle a big workload. If he pitches well, he should make 200 innings. If he doesn’t, he still gets $4 million, but doesn’t get 200 innings.
JEFF GORDON
I believe he can be the same type of pitcher he was last year. He is a big, strong guy. In the past, he hurt himself by overthrowing against top hitters. Dave Duncan has convinced him to pace himself, throw with less velocity and concern himself more with movement and pitch location. That new approach ought to keep him on the mound.
Here we go…optomistic homerism at it’s finest: we get 15+ wins from Carp, Waino and Lohse…10+ from the Colonel and Joe-El…less than 15 blown saves and we’re in it!!!