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04.15.2009 1:14 pm

Round Two Part Deux: The predictions

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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: It’s prediction time … The Blues and Canucks will kick off their seven-game series tonight in Vancouver. What do you see being the key areas in how this series plays out, and who comes out on top?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD

There’s a lot of pressure on the Canucks and virtually none on the Blues. Fans in Vancouver are waiting for the big contract given to Mats Sundin to pay off, they’re waiting for the Sedin twins - Henrik and Daniel - to produce in the playoffs and they’re waiting for Roberto Luongo to prove he’s a goalie that can take them deep into the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Blues aren’t supposed to be here. They aren’t Cinderella . . . instead folks should start calling Cinderella “The Blues.” And yet while they’re underdogs, they were 2-2 against the Canucks in the regular season, and that was with Chris Mason not playing as well as he has shown this season. Mason is 1-3 with a 3.44 goals-against average and an .863 save-percentage against the Canucks this year.

The edge may come in the special teams. The Blues have the No. 3-ranked penalty-kill and the No. 8-ranked power-play in the NHL and those categories will become even more important in the playoffs. If the Blues can play physical, continue to get balanced scoring and Mason can come close to matching Luongo, they can beat the Canucks.

Prediction: Blues in six.

DAN O’NEILL

For the Blues, the key areas will be stopping those darn Sedin twins, pounding on 38-year-old Mats Sundin and scoring ugly goals against elite goaltender Roberto Luongo.

To that end, the Blues have to win the special teams battle. They were better than Vancouver with both the penalty kill and the power play units during the regular season, and that must hold true. Obviously, Chris Mason has to make big saves and bail the team out when the opposition pressures. And it wouldn’t hurt to have Brad Boyes get hot.

For the Canucks, the biggest key is Vlade Divac look-alike Luongo. He has been outstanding since returning from an injury and he can win a series single-handedly. At the same time, Vancouver has to get balanced scoring from its forwards. During the regular season, five different Vancouver players scored 20-or-more goals, with the emerging Alex Burrows scoring 28 to compliment Daniel Sedin’s team-leading total of 31.

Prediction: This is truly a toss-up, but Canucks in seven.

JEFF GORDON

The Blues have tons of momentum coming into this series. Sadly, the Canucks are rolling, too. Vancouver has the edge in goal, with Roberto Luongo, and on defense, where the Canucks are highly skilled. Vancouver also has the home-ice advantage.

So the Canucks ought to win in six games. But . . . I’ve picked against the Blues down the stretch and they kept winning. So maybe this continued negativity is good Karma.

Prediction: Canucks in six.

ROGER HENSLEY

Let’s keep this simple and take the emotion out of it. The Blues are the better team right now. As Bill Parcells is fond of saying, “You are who your record says you are.” And the Blues record since January says they are ready to compete and win this postseason. I say they steal one game in Vancouver and win all three while playing to the crowd at Scottrade. A tall order? Maybe. But using that math it adds up to …

Prediction: Blues in six.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)

Three days ago on the Blues post-game show, right after the 1-0 win in Colorado, a caller asked me if I thought the Blues were going to beat the Canucks. While allowing for a change of heart after a few days of consideration, I said I thought Vancouver would probably win.

Well, I’ve had a change of heart.

The Blues are loose, playing better hockey than anyone in the NHL over the last 40 games - and the last 10 games for that matter - and the weight of the world is on the shoulders of the Canucks. The tension here in Vancouver is palpable. There are questions about key Canucks’ players, like the Sedin Twins and Mats Sundin, and whether or not they’re “playoff tough.”

Plus, Vancouver is Canada’s great hope for the 2009 playoffs. It’s been 16 years since Lord Stanley’s Cup made it’s home in Canada (1992-93 Canadiens) and the pressure is clearly on this Vancouver team. It all adds up to a Blues series win to me.

Prediction: Blues in six.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, KFNS)

First off, how great is it to once again be breaking down the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Only if my dog didn’t chew up my passport I’d be in Vancouver!

Just because it’s the playoffs doesn’t mean you are forced to change your game. You want to continue to do the things that got you here. Obviously if you see something Vancouver is doing on the PP or PK you may be forced to make an in-game adjustment, but besides that, the Blues don’t need to worry about changing what they do.

It is important however that the Blues get to the Canucks “D” on the forecheck. Vancouver’s D-men are all mobile skaters who have the ability to move the puck quickly. The Blues need to prevent guys like Ohlund, Edler, Bieksa, and Salo from making their usual long stretch passes through the middle of the ice. The Blues will try to make Vancouver go D to D and force them to go up the boards when they are leaving the zone.

My point here is that a strong forecheck will cause problems, create turnovers, and allow St. Louis to spend a lot of time in the offensive zone. My other point is that everything needs to be taken to the net hard. Don’t pass up chances to shoot the puck and it’s important the Blues forwards drive hard and makes things as difficult as possible for Vancouver all-world goaltender Roberto Luongo.

It goes without saying the Blues checkers need to be successful in keeping Vancouver’s top offensive players off the score sheet. This is no different than any other game, but the Jay McClements of the world have an opportunity to create a strong reputation as quality NHL shutdown players.

It’s going to be a long, physical series and the Blues need to make life miserable for the Sedins, Sundins, Keslers, and Demitras of the world. If the Blues can do this they can win the series, and I think they will. It’s critical they get a split in the first two games.

Enjoy the playoffs Everybody.

Prediction: Blues in six.

15 comments

Comments are closed.

The only thing that surprises me is that these people are called “experts.”

Must be a slow day at the P-D when Dan O’Neill is an “expert” on something.

— Wes Mailman
2:21 pm April 15th, 2009

The Blues will sweep Vancouver. Just watch!

— Andy Boogher
2:40 pm April 15th, 2009

Hey Wes… please provide a link for a time that Dan O’Neil has been wrong. They sarcastic tone of your comment would leave one to believe that you have some proof as to why you can’t stand him.

So, please… provide a link. And while you’re at it… why don’t you tell us your real name, and provide an email address as well?

Afterall, only a gutless, spineless coward would throw insults at a man while hiding behind some message board alias.

— Jim Wilson
2:58 pm April 15th, 2009

If the Blues win tonight, they win the series. If the lose tonight, they lose the series. Black and white. Watch.

— bathroom towel
3:00 pm April 15th, 2009

I don’t think any of them are pounding their chests. They’re just printing what they believe to be true. I’d probably let this go, Wes. Time spent worrying about something else would probably be a good thing for you.

I particularly like Strickland’s considerations. I really thought he was going to pick the Nucks’. If this game goes to 7, it’s Vancouver. If Stl wins, it’ll be in 6 games….IMO.

— R.C.
3:04 pm April 15th, 2009

BATHROOM…interesting prediction, I thought it was the best of 7.

— mjkfc
3:05 pm April 15th, 2009

Hey Bathroom towel - any reason you don’t believe the Blues will win if they don’t win tonight, but win tomorrow?

I think a split is all they need to accomplish to give themselves a chance.

— R.C.
3:06 pm April 15th, 2009

Jim Wilson - it’s not a point of whether Dan O’Neill is right or wrong. The point is why attack him. O’Neill is wrong on many occasions. Look no further than the Round 2 Blog posted from the archives back in December. The question was “which team makes the playoffs first.” No need for a link, just head to the main page.:

DAN O’NEILL
The Cardinals will be the first because they are the closest to being playoff solvent. They are only missing a couple of key pieces — a closer, a starter — while the Rams and Blues are still missing several pieces (many pieces where the Rams are concerned). The Cardinals were in the playoff hunt until the last month of the season. You can turn things around in baseball quickly — look at what Tampa Bay did last year — if you get some breaks and make the right personnel moves.

— R.C.
3:16 pm April 15th, 2009

I agree that it’s great to be talking about the playoffs again. The Notes have been in the playoffs for 2 months already….so my question is -Can the Blues maintain that high level of intesity or do they relax now that they made it into the playoffs? It will be a great test for Coach Andy and the veterans to get everyone fired up again for the Canucks. Personally, I think Vancouver has just a bit too much, but the Blues will fight and push it to game 7….then it’s just 1 game and anything can happen in 1 game.

Go Blues! It’s great to bleed blue again, although I never stopped!

— BG
3:19 pm April 15th, 2009

Have any of these so-called experts ever played the game of Hockey…I wish the Blues well in the playoffs….wow

— Hank Aaron
3:37 pm April 15th, 2009

I hope the Blues sweep! if for only the selfish reason I have game 4 tix.

— Nick J
3:41 pm April 15th, 2009

Can we all thank Sarah Palin for getting Chris Mason the job of goalie. He would not be where he is today unless Manny gets injured on the ceremonial carpet back on oct 28th. If Manny does not get injured he stays in the lineup and the Blues do not make the playoffs. What a twist of fate!!

— ray baumann
4:02 pm April 15th, 2009

Why would anyone attack anybody for posting their FREE prediction on a web blog? It’s not like you are paying good money for premium hockey insight here. The format of Round Two is to provide the insight of the P-D sports writers on a variety of topics across all sports, so that’s what you should expect to get.

I agree with Jim Wilson — if you’re going to say rude things to people, then quit hiding behind the anonymity of the internet and post your full name and contact information.

— Andrew
4:16 pm April 15th, 2009

RC - You are right… i didn’t mean “when he was wrong.” Everybody is wrong, everyday. I should have said “when he was incompetent.”

but going back to December… when the Blues were he worst team in hockey, and flaming him for thinking The Cardinals would make a playoff first is ludicrous. There isn’t a person on this earth, out of 9 billion people, that thought The Blues could make the playoffs this year. Not you, not me, not even the most loyal beer-gutted hoosier Blues fan… nobody! Hope is one thing, betting your head on a chopping block is another. I bet we can’t go back to December and find ONE ‘expert’ on earth from the STLPD, ESPN, SI, or anywhere, that predicted The Blues would make the playoffs at that point.

That certainly doesn’t show that he is incompetent.

— Jim Wilson
4:29 pm April 15th, 2009

Blues in Three!

— JC
9:22 pm April 15th, 2009