Web Search powered by YAHOO! SEARCH
06.26.2009 1:55 pm

How many wins will it take to capture NL Central?

  • Email this
  • Print this

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.

6 comments

Comments are closed.

What about “baby jesus”? Ankiel needs to find his stroke soon, I would opt him out for a week or two at AAA.

— John
2:32 pm June 26th, 2009

I would have jumped at the chance to trade Mott/Perez and Boggs for DeRosa. The Cardinals seem to overvalue anyone with a STL on his cap. Without a major deal of some kind, whoever gets hot will leave the Cards in their dust. I have heard for over a year now about the over abundance of outfielders. Who among them besides Colby is worth a starting position. I wouldn’t hesitate to move anyone or two of them for a real hitter.

— ronald vines
2:35 pm June 26th, 2009

Right now, the Cardinals are on a pace to win 88 games, even having lost 3 of 4 in New York. The Brewers are on a pace to win 85 or 86, the Cubs and Reds on a pace to finish under .500. I know everybody likes to harp on what the Cardinals lack, but everybody else must lack even more than we do. If the pitching can get and stay healthy and even one of our other “power” hitters can pull it together, I think the Cardinals are in the catbird seat in this division, and once in the postseason, could win it all with dominant pitching in a short series (Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and even Pineiro are quite good, along with Franklin doing fabulous as the closer). That’s just my opinion, but I’m sticking with it. Go Cards!

— revpauld
2:44 pm June 26th, 2009

All points well taken. I liked Joes critique…interesting stuff he posted up. Bernie is being Bernie…right on, it would be a travesty if the Cards play stall ball and not make a move while they hope for the competition to do poorly. Dans point about the Cards being an ordinary team with a chance to win it is in synch with what we are currently witnessing. I think the Cubs, Brewers, Cards and Reds will all be slipping as they try to reach the summit of 90 wins. One of them will make it though. It will be interesting to see just how, and it will be interesting to see how the other teams slip and fall. Recent history points to the Cubs to make it. I’m not betting against them unless the Cards make a significant move to help put them over the top. The Brew crews pitching already has them fighting against a stiff wind that is slowing their progress. Do the Reds have enough leadership on the field to keep them focused on the summit? If not there is no way they will reach that goal. Thanks for the time guys…well done as usual and I enjoy the opportunity to mingle thoughts.

— drelboc
3:42 pm June 26th, 2009

I think Bernie is right on with his comments. It has been proven in the past that the Cubs and the Brewers will make the necessary moves to shore up their weaknesses for the stretch run to make the playoffs. Jockety tended to do the same thing when he was with the Cards. The problem is that who, other than the obvious untouchables, do the Cardinals have that would appeal enough to other teams for us to get decent help? Maybe Perez or Motte or Brendon Ryan or Pinero. Everybody is clamering for the Cards to make a deal, but it takes two to tango, and I don’t see where the Cards have much to offer. It’s pretty sad…..

— Richfromiowa
4:07 pm June 26th, 2009

The Jockman knew how to make a trade good for both, Mo has not shown that skill as of yet and in todays climate in baseball it isn’t easy. 95 wins and it will be either Cubs or Brewers per Bernie’s call on their willingness to make the move and spend the cash. If Jock gets to pull the trigger with the Reds it could be 88 wins in a photo finish.

— James K
4:18 pm June 26th, 2009