THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.