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06.22.2009 10:06 am

Would you pitch to Albert Pujols with the bases loaded?

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION OF THE DAY: The Royals chose to pitch to Albert Pujols with the bases loaded on Sunday and he responded with a grand slam. Only six players in MLB history have been intentionally walked with the bases loaded. Would you pitch to Pujols with the bases loaded?

RICK HUMMEL:
Always. Why give the Cardinals a run? Even at ..330, you get him out nearly seven times out of 10.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Pujols has four at-bats with the bases loaded this season. Result: three grand slams. Doesn’t that answer your question?

BRYAN BURWELL:
I hate the intentional walk. From a pure competitive standpoint it is a strategic capitulation. I hated it when they did it to Barry Bonds. I hate it now.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Yes. Because he’s only 3-for-4 this season with the bases loaded and in his career he’s just managed a .404 average with the bases brimming with ‘Birds. So there’s a chance. There’s a slim, itty, bitty, teeny chance that he does not produce the run you would be gift-wrapping with a bases-loaded walk. Besides, if you’re in a situation where your pitcher is facing Pujols with the bases loaded … it’s already too late. Why fool yourself. Face it: You’ve clearly had an epic fail in executing the plan on pitching to the Cardinals. Let the rest of the lineup have their whacks and then pitch around Pujols. Not the other way around, silly.

JEFF GORDON:
This depends on the scenario. Do I trust my pitcher to get the next guy? Late in a game, with two outs and a three- or four-run lead, I would walk in the run IF I had a strong reliever on the mound. Albert hits anybody, so walking him, even to force in a run, is a thought. But if your pitcher walks the next guy, too, or throws the sort of meat that Ryan Ludwick hammered in Kansas City . . .

Albert is a given. He hits in that scenario. We know whoever is hitting behind him is NOT a given. Every other manager knows that. With this bases loaded, though, a lot can go wrong if your pitcher can’t handle that pressure. Doing this with a shaky starting pitcher early in a game could prove disastrous.

10 comments

Comments are closed.

Yes Albert is money, but I still don’t think you can walk him no matter what, from a purely statistical perspective. As great as he is, he’ll still make an out 6 out of 10 times. The odds are in your favor. Now I’d love to see him put one over the wall just like yesterday but sooner or later the odds catch up.

— netboy65
10:38 am June 22nd, 2009

Babe Ruth is dead. Get the guy out.

— BaylorDan
10:54 am June 22nd, 2009

DG… You’re funny. ‘;>)

As silly as this may sound… I agree with all of you.
The only way I would pitch to Pujols is if I were pitching grenades!

— dave cobler
12:53 pm June 22nd, 2009

I would pitch to Albert Pujols with the bases loaded, unless I could walk in a run and not have it alter the outcome of the game. There are very few situations where a manager can calculate that the run walked in won’t alter the outcome of a game, like being up 3 runs w/ 2 out in the last of the 9th. Otherwise, if you took the HR/AB ratio of even the greatest power hitters, as a BA it would figure to less than .100. Is your pitcher afraid of that?

— Michael Scriven
12:54 pm June 22nd, 2009

Let’s make up some generous numbers (his ridiculous numbers this season are simply too small of a sample size to be realistic):

Albert bats .400 with the bases loaded. 1/4 are singles, 1/4 are doubles, 1/2 are grand slams. 10% of the time he hits a DP grounder. 10% of the time he hits a sac fly. The other 40% he makes a simple out.

Obviously a sac fly is better than an intentional pass - you give up the same run, but there are 2 on and you gain an out, instead of bases loaded with the same number of outs. So 60% of the time, the result will be better than the intentional pass.

Of course, it’s not that simple, since 40% of the time, the result can be significantly worse - a hit scoring 2, 3, or 4 runs. In this simplistic calculation, if you pitch to him, on average he will knock in 1.4 runs and make 0.7 outs.

Let’s say that whoever’s up after Albert will get a hit 25% (40% of those are HR’s, 40% singles, 20% doubles), walk 10%, GIDP 10%, sac fly 10%, simple out the rest of the time. If you walk Albert, you give up a run and then pitch to this guy - on average you will give up (counting the run you IBB’d in) 1.85 runs and make 0.75 outs.

These calculations are very much back-of-the-napkin and the numbers are totally made up, but it’s probably an even choice at best as a numbers game, and this doesn’t account for the message it sends to your team and your pitcher when you intentionally walk in a run. (There’s also lost entertainment value, but the manager’s job is first and foremost to win games, not to entertain the fans.)

I pitch to him in most cases. As gordo says, if you’ve got 2 outs in the 9th and a 3-run lead, that changes things.

— Dave
3:07 pm June 22nd, 2009

I’d pitch to Albert, and anyone else for that matter.

— jfmoyn
3:36 pm June 22nd, 2009

Who’s batting behind him? Ludwick? Ankiel? Schumaker? Duncan? Rasmus? Even Greene, LaRue, or Yadi will put a hurtin’ on you in clutch situations. Part of the game.

— Darby Jarboe
5:40 pm June 22nd, 2009

I think Hillary was pushed!

— Terry Gee
8:12 pm June 22nd, 2009

It is rare for me to agree with Bryan Burwell, especially on a baseball issue, but in this instance we’re in synch. I have hated the intentional walk since I was a kid and think it should be banned from baseball. Obviously, I expect pitchers to pitch him carefully, especially with men on base, but Burwell is right — it’s “capitulation.” Until the hitters can choose who pitches to them, pitchers/managers shouldn’t get to pick who they pitch to. It negates the essence of the game and cheats both the players and fans. I don’t pay money to go to a game to see the best hitter in baseball intentionally walked. And pitchers didn’t spend all those years learning how to pitch to want to back off of challenging the best hitters. Verlander was told to walk Pujols twice in the first two innings last Tuesday. When he got to pitch to him (albeit with no one on) he struck him out. That’s what the game is all about and I’m tired of all of the baseball writers and commentators saying they wouldn’t pitch to Pujols. And as much as I despise Barry Bonds, I felt the same way about all of the intentional passes he got. What’s the point of players trying to be the best if that will be used against them? And what’s the point of playing the game if you’re unwilling to face the best?

— kikki2570
9:19 pm June 22nd, 2009

MLB is so desperate to get past the A-Roid scandal that teams have been instructed to pitch to Pooh Holes. Bonds fell. A-Roid fell and he was supposed to be the “clean” player to erase Bonds from the record books. Now MLB is turning an eye as El Roidre makes his assault to topple Bonds. MLB has more lives than a cat.

— Turd McPunch
10:49 pm June 22nd, 2009