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07.29.2009 12:18 pm

Cubs are still Cardinals’ biggest threat

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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Even with all the offensive firepower the Cardinals have added recently, which team do you see as the biggest threat to St. Louis for the NL Central crown and why?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cubs are the only real threat. They were supposed to be the best team in the division and they still well may be the best, IF lefthander Ted Lilly, their most effective pitcher this season, doesn’t miss too much time with knee and shoulder miseries.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs. There is a reason why the Cubs have one of the highest payrolls in the majors — they have a lot of talent and they, arguably, have the best lineup and most imposing rotation … when … healthy. And that’s the key. The Cubs have been hanging around, hanging around, hanging around and hanging around and the longer they hang around the more time they have to get their Wrigley together, ditch the chaos and injuries from earlier this season and play like they’re capable. Their Central foes had their chance to pull away from the Cubs. And they didn’t.

JEFF GORDON
Until Roy Oswalt went down, I liked the Astros. That team has been on a prolonged upturn. The ’Stros can really beat up opponents in its bandbox stadium. But they have to have their ace. If Oswalt misses significant time with his back strain, that makes the Cubs the biggest threat — even without Ted Lilly. Neither team seems likely to make a major move at the trade deadline, though, so both teams could lose some steam.

GERRY FRALEY
The Chicago Cubs have the best talent in the NL Central. The most telling sign of that is the Cubs have not been buried despite nearly four months of slipshod play. The Cubs win despite themselves because they can out-talent most teams.

The Central will be a two-month drag race between the Cardinals and the Cubs. How soon ailing lefthander Ted Lilly returns to the Cubs’ rotation will be a significant factor. It is possible the rivalry will carry over into October. The clubs could push each other so hard that both will get into the playoffs, with the runnerup as the wild-card entrant.

LUKE THOMPSON
Even without their recent hot streak, the Cubs would seem to be the team with the best chance to challenge the Cardinals in the final two months. Lou Piniella’s team was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and now Aramis Ramirez is back, as is Milton Bradley, who is finally starting to hit. Of course, injury issues continue to cause problems, most notably with All-Star Ted Lilly. But the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central on paper, and that is probably still true even with the Cardinals’ new additions. It’s quite possible their one remaining series on September 18-20 in St. Louis could have large title implications.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cubs. They’ve had key players underperforming all season long, they’ve had injuries and a half dozen on-field temper tantrums that have almost cost them a Gatorade machine. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong — at least until recently — and yet they’re right there in the race.

The Cards have had plenty of bad breaks themselves, make no mistake about that. They and the Cubs are actually quite similar when you think about it. Neither team has played as well as it can play and now the Cardinals have some significant new pieces to play with. I also say the Cubs are the biggest threat to the Cards because I don’t think the Astros or the Brewers are all that hot. They’ll fade while the Cards and Cubs continue to sprint toward the finish.

19 comments

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I like, with four of our starters, our chances a lot. Conceding every fifth game by using Wellemeyer was moronic. Our sticks match most clubs pretty good. Motte needs some movement on his pitches.

It’s in The Birds own hands. Using only four starters would be ideal.

— DP
12:48 pm July 29th, 2009

I predict the Cubs will slowly fall down to second once they start playing away from the “friendly confines” of Wrigley. Their recent surge has put them just below the Cards in the standings, but looking back those wins came against Washington and the Reds. They are 22-27 on the road so that will tell a lot. Dempster didn’t look good last night after coming back from the DL, Lilly is out, Harden is a bust this year, and Zombrano is a rollercoaster. The Cards have a solid starting 4 and the offense is clicking. The Cubs will give them chase and keep things interesting. The Central is ours to lose. Go Cards!

— cards&badgers
12:57 pm July 29th, 2009

The Cubs always screw it up don’t even worry about them.

— redbirds
1:16 pm July 29th, 2009

Why does everyone (all writers above) think the Cubs are better than Cards – On Paper that is.

What am I missing?

1stBase Albert vs Lee – Ill take El Hombre
2nd Skip vs Fontenot – Ill take Skip (Font batting .228)
3rd De Rosa vs Ramirez – Ok this goes to Cubs (I like DeRo though so far – stud!)
SS Ryan vs Theriot – offensively this goes Cubs
LF Holliday vs Soriano – No question here, no headaches Holliday
CF Fukudome vs Ankiel – Push?
RF Ludwick vs Bradley – See LF, no headaches with Luddy and better production
C Molina vs Soto/Hill – Molina in my book for D alone

SP Carp vs Zam – Ill take Carp
SP Waino vs Harden – Give me Waino
SP Pinero vs Lilly (if healthy) – I guess Lilly

RP Slight edge to Cubs?

Closer Franklin vs Gregg – neither flashy, but cant argue with Franks success this year.

What am I missing, or am I looking thru Cardinal red glasses?

— StlJK
1:26 pm July 29th, 2009

I agree with stljk…On paper… we still have the better team.

— Kevin
1:33 pm July 29th, 2009

I hate the Cubs so much it is hard for me to be objective but right now I am not concerned about the Cubs. As long as the Cards stay healthy I think the Cards have the talent this year. Not only that, the Cards have players who can win the big games, guys who have been to the World Series and won, players who excel at crunch time. The Cubs have no one like that, and if you disagree please review the 2007 and 2008 playoffs. The closest thing they had - DeRosa - is now a Cardinal. Imagine that.

— Leecard
2:03 pm July 29th, 2009

It is the red glasses. I hate to say it but the Birds are playing for the wildcard.

— arealist
2:16 pm July 29th, 2009

The Cubs (with any combo of Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, and Dempster) and Reds (with Vasquez, Cueto, and Harang) are the only teams in the Central with 3 starters with the POTENTIAL to pitch as well as Carp, Waino, and Piniero have thus far. The thing is, neither have pitched as well (and the Reds are falling out of the picture). I’m willing to bet we win the division by at least 3 games with the additions of DeRosa at 3B, Holliday in LF, and even Lugo to round out 2B and SS.

— StubbyClapp
2:40 pm July 29th, 2009

Another ironic screen name: Arealist. You’re either: A) A die-hard Cubs fan; B) As dumb as a Cubs fan; C) Just looking for attention; or D) All of the above. You don’t need red glasses to see that a team that was already in first place with some of the best pitching in the league AND THEN aquired three very good, highly motivated position players AND kicked lil’ Dunc out of the lineup AND Rick Ankiel finally got it back, (run-on sentence duly noted), can continue to hold first place and in fact pull away from the Cubs. By September, the only questions will be whether the Cardinals can catch LA or Philly in the overall standings for playoff positioning, and when will Pinella get fired. Yeah, I know the Cubs were just in first yesterday and could be again before the day is over, but there is ZERO chance that will last. The Cardinals are just too deep.

— Captain Hero
3:27 pm July 29th, 2009

Don’t be so sure that the Cards are a lock. The Cubs are way more talented than they have played thus far. Did any of you read this article? ALL of the writers are saying that the Cubs are a legitamate threat. Carp, and Wainy are studs, but beyond that, I don’t see anything special. The Cards have played as many home games as the cubs, but they have played .500 on the road. The Cubs are stilll 2 up in the loss column. I do believe that this will be a neck and neck race til the end of September. Cards miss the playoffs. You heard it here first.

— John
3:32 pm July 29th, 2009

Cards will take the division.

August is shaping up to be a good month for us. We have a home series against Washington, San Diego and Cincinnati and away series against San Diego and Pittsburgh. That’s 16 games against teams whose winning percentage is .320 (Washington), .386 (San Diego), .430 (Pittsburgh) and .455 (Cincinnati). Pittsburgh also just traded away Snell and Wilson today. San Diego is without Peavy. Washington is Washington and Cincy is, well, Cincy. Our other series in August are against Houston (.505) (without Oswalt and Berkman), the Mets (.485), the Dodgers (.620) and then Houston again (probably will have both stars back, but we play at home). That’s right, other than Houston which is barely over .500, we only play ONE series against a contender in August.

September/October are loaded with division series against the Cubs (1), Brewers (3), Pittsburgh (1) and Houston (1). If we cleanup August like we should, we should be in great position to close out the division in September.

— Brian
5:32 pm July 29th, 2009

And a couple of points about the pitching. There are 16 starters in MLB that have an ERA under 3 as of yesterday’s games. Only 3 teams can boast 2 starters with sub-3 ERAs. They are San Francisco (Cain and Lincecum), Seattle (Washburn and Hernandez) and Atlanta (Jurrjens and Vazquez). Only one team, St. Louis, can boast THREE starters with sub-3.00 ERAs (Carpenter, 2.19, Wainwright, 2.80, and Piniero, 2.95). The Cubs, Pirates, Reds and Brewers have NONE on that list. Houston has just one person on that list, Wandy Rodriguez. The top two pitchers on that list in Home Runs allowed? Piniero and Carpenter (in that order, too, in case you’re interested).

If you think that St. Louis pitching can’t match up to anyone, you probably also still believe that the earth is flat and there are only four elements in nature (earth, air, fire and water).

The full list and their ERA through yesterday? Greinke - KC (2.04), Haren - ARI (2.19), Carpenter - STL (2.19), Cain - SF (2.27), Lincecum - SF (2.30), Jackson - DET(2.59), Halladay - TOR (2.62), Washburn - SEA (2.64), Rodriguez - HOU (2.65), Jurrjens - ATL (2.69), Hernandez - SEA (2.79), Johnson - FLA (2.80), Wainwright - STL (2.80), Piniero - STL (2.95), Kershaw - LAD (2.96) and Vazquez - ATL (2.98).

— Brian
5:44 pm July 29th, 2009

I wonder when was the last time the Cardinals had three starters in the top 10 in ERA? 1985, maybe? Maybe never in my lifetime. Any stat geeks want to tackle this one?

— captain hero
7:49 pm July 29th, 2009

It is now time to go to the four man rotation with the occaisional fifth man used. Power goes to the Cards and the Outfield belong to the Cards.
The infield is a break even. For the Cards to stay ahead of the Cubs we need to strengthen our middle and set up relief or just start having faith in one or two the relievers and just give them job and tell them to do it.
Division winners should be the Cards by a two game spread.

— Aussie Cardinal
9:24 pm July 29th, 2009

no one mentioned the schedule. i think the next month or so will be quite telling. cards have more time at home while cubs lose much of their wriggley field advantage. probably will end in an end of sept shoot out. i think adding an eighth inning reliever could be the winning chip for the cards, only question is do we have enough trade chips available to nab someone like qualls. i like our chances. i also think we have the larussa advantage, though he frustrates me often, he knows how to motivate and seems to be able to squeeze every last ounce out of the team. both teams hit well enough, mostly comes down to pitching and injuries, who gets luckier? can’t count out astros and their patented second half charge. brewers without making several pitching moves probably a non factor. end guess, both cubs and cards make playoffs as champ and wild card.

— roger from lake tahoe
10:15 pm July 29th, 2009

Why do you writers knock the Cardinals starters and conclude that the Cubs have a better rotation? Not one Cub’s starter is in the top 10 for ERA in the majors, while the Cardinals have 3 pitchers in the top 10. Lohse has had a tough year so far with all the weird incidents, but he will get back on track–the excellent pitching from the top 3 is contagious and Lohse competes. Yes, the bullpen has started to look a little shaky in spots. It would help a little if Tony would quit relying on Reyes in late and close situations. He may have looked better at the beginning of the season, but Trevor Miller has proven to be the best LHP we have. The Cubs also have their bullpen issues. They in no way have a tight, leakproof ship there. Finally, the team chemistry thing. This is an intangible that you cannot underestimate. The Cardinals have had as many injury issues as the Cubs this year and talent that underperformed, as well. But, you didn’t see the Cardinals players having emotional meltdowns on the field or in the dugout. This may be one of the main reasons that the Cardinals were able to hold onto 1st place all this time, while the Cubs dropped as low as last place at one point in the season. The Cards play as a team and cheer each other on. They aren’t a collection of divas, each with their own agendas, like many of the Cubs. They’ve added 2 guys that have reputations as great clubhouse guys and should only add to that team chemistry. The Cubs have Milton Bradley.

— LPD
11:50 am July 30th, 2009

Hey, the cubby’s in the race this late in the game just means we get to watch another wonder crash and burn sometime between now and the end of the season by them. Remember, their the cubby’s

— Stang52
3:55 pm July 30th, 2009

I agree with Jeff on this one. I liked the Astros too before Oswalt went down. They started their climb from oblivion earlier this year than they have in recent seasons. I still think they’ll hang around and give us a run. I’ll stick with what I said last week, if the Cards don’t win it, then it will be Houston……….personally I don’t think it’s meant to be for the Cubs this year, but then again it’s pretty much like that every year, right?

— BillP.
8:26 pm July 30th, 2009

The Cubs have a history that is impossible to ignore. We mere mortals may not understand it, but it is not superstition. The Cardinals have their own history and it’s the opposite of the Cubs. The Redbirds will win the division again this year. Being a Cardinal fan is simply a better way to go. My own personal take is that Cardinals fans are better fans because they actually do believe their team will win and expect it to happen. The Cubs fans believe something else.

— Brian Clarke
1:07 pm August 1st, 2009