Is it wise to tie up so much money in Pujols and Holliday?
THE WATERCOOLER:
Is it smart baseball to spend nearly 40 percent of a team’s payroll on two players as the Cardinals could do with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday?
JOE STRAUSS:
No. If the payroll were $125 million, then maybe. But with a $100 million payroll as the Cards were last year. No.
RICK HUMMEL:
If it were Pujols and Bob Gibson, maybe. But one of the players has to be a pitcher to be worth it.
BERNIE MIKLASZ:
The Cardinals are up against it unless they expand the payroll. If you count Albert Pujols’ existing contract, they’re alread obligated to pay out a guaranteed $55 million-plus to players in 2010, and it’s about the same in 2011. And keep in mind that the salary number is likely higher than that, because it does not include the arbitration-related salaries that will be paid to Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. On the positive side, the list does include three starting pitchers who are locked in for the next two (at least) seasons: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse. So they do have a rotation foundation to work with. And there are some young pitchers (Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.) worthy of an opportunity. But if Matt Holliday commands, say, $15 million a year, you are looking at $70 million to $80 million guaranteed obligations for each of the next two seasons.And that doesn’t include Pujols’ likely increase if there’s a new contract for him. Either way, it doesn’t leave a lot of spending room for other needs, including third base, a strong fourth outfielder, perhaps a veteran starting pitcher, and the bench. The Cardinals can pull it off, but it’ll be tight. The question is: what is Holliday worth? Is he a $20 million a year player? No. Is he a $15 million a year player? I don’t think so, but he will be if some other team is crazy enough to offer it. I can’t set Holliday’s market price. The teams shopping for left fielders will do that. But I see no reason why he’d have to be paid as much as Pujols. Not even close, really. If the market breaks in the Cardinals’ favor, they might be able to get Holliday at a “reduced rate”, though we’re still talking about an awful lot of money.
DERRICK GOOLD:
If that were the Cardinals only payroll bloc to maneuver around then maybe. But it’s not. The Cardinals also have Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse locked up for, possibly, the next three seasons, and in 2011 that trio will cost $33.5 million That means more than two-third of the projected payroll can be isolated on five players. The only way the Cardinals — or any other team for that matter — can lump so much of the payroll on so few players is if they can count on getting contributions from prospects and young stars — not players, stars — who not yet arbitration eligible. Colby Rasmus, for example, is one. Brendan Ryan, for another couple seasons, is another. Lefty Jaime Garcia projects as one. Outside the organization, however, the Cardinals are not viewed as a team that can lean this much on its minor-league system. The depth of the organization has improved. But its depth is mainly in complementary players. The Cardinals have players who will play in the majors. But there is a difference between minor-leaguers who play in the majors, those who stay in the majors and ones who will star in the majors. The Cardinals don’t have the obvious contributors storming up the ranks to paint themselves into a financial corner.
Commish is spot on. Spend the extra money on pitching. Let Ludwick, Rasmus and Freese develop around that Pujols guy. Thats the future we need to focus on.