THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Carp or Waino? If you were to choose one of the Cardinal hurlers to win tomorrow’s NL Cy Young award, who would you choose?

JOE STRAUSS
I’ve sided with Wainwright since early August. The fact that he remained available to the club the entire season and produced second-half numbers almost identical to Carpenter’s tips a close race in his favor. Had a curious managerial decision and a bullpen meltdown not sabatoged Wainwright’s 20th win, we wouldn’t even be having this debate.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d cast my vote for Carpenter because he was simply the better pitcher. Wainwright pitched in six more games than Carpenter and notched two more wins. Other than that, Carpenter was easily the better pitcher. Carpenter posted the lower ERA (2.24 to 2.63), the lower WHIP (1.00 to 1.21), his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 40% better (3.8 to 2.7), opponents hit for a lower average against him (.226 to .244) and Carpenter’s opponents’ OPS was almost 100 points better than Wainwright’s (.581 to .679).

In other words Carpenter was tougher to get a hit against, tougher to get on-base against and he was tougher to score against. To me, that translates to “better pitcher” regardless of the language you’re speaking. Wainwright wins the “quantity” argument and Carpenter wins the “quality” argument. With Carpenter making 28 starts this year, hardly an insignificant number of games, I’ll gladly take quality over quantity.

Wait, there’s one more thing. The manager and pitching coach treated Carpenter like the “ace” of the staff by setting up the rotation late in the season so Carpenter would start Game 1 of the NLDS. Case closed in my book.

JEFF GORDON
As great as Carpenter was for much of the year, I see Wainwright as the wire-to-wire force for this rotation. Chris may be the better pitcher, but Adam was more accomplished this year. I can’t get past the win total. Also, he piled up high pitch counts to work deep into games and he ranked among the league’s strikeout leaders. This was Wainwright’s year and he should be rewarded.

RICK HUMMEL
Wainwright, because he led in two of the four major categories for pitchers — wins (19) and innings pitched (233). Carpenter led in one (ERA, 2.24). Tim Lincecum led in only one (strikeouts).

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What does your gut tell you as far as whether or not Tony La Russa will return with the Cardinals next season?

JOE STRAUSS
There are more reasons to believe TLR will return than not. It’s been 10 days since the Cardinals’ inglorious exit from the postseason. No one needs to tell the manager how much the organization invested into this season. He is soul-searching to examine what went wrong, whether he still commands his players’ attention and, at 65, to determine if he still wants to put himself through the annual 8-month grind. The Cardinals may be prepared to make him the game’s highest-paid skipper, status he briefly enjoyed before the LA Dodgers hired Joe Torre two years ago. TLR says he is not interested in managing elsewhere should he step away. However, there is some intrigue given than Torre and the Atlanta Braves’ Bobby Cox have both indicated next year will be their last in the dugout. The Dodgers job especially may be appealing. That strikes me as a longshot scenario, though.

RICK HUMMEL
Tony is back. One of his biggest concerns is that he is wearing thin with the media, which probably is exaggerated. His popularity with the fans, even though the Cardinals had an abrupt exit from postseason play, rarely has been higher. He is getting along nicely with general manager John Mozeliak and he has the best hitter and the top two starting pitchers in the National League.

DERRICK GOOLD
He’ll be back. The reasons to return far outnumber the niggling little hangups he really has to search to find. If La Russa is going to manage somewhere in 2010, the only somewhere he is ready to consider is the Cardinals. He either just wants to hear how much the team appreciates him and would like him to return, or he’s waiting for the results of Albert Pujols’ surgery to know for sure about the team’s chances to contend …

BRYAN BURWELL
To me, it’s hard to imagine that La Russa would walk away from the Cardinals with Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at his disposal.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Is it smart baseball to spend nearly 40 percent of a team’s payroll on two players as the Cardinals could do with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday?

JOE STRAUSS:
No. If the payroll were $125 million, then maybe. But with a $100 million payroll as the Cards were last year. No.

RICK HUMMEL:
If it were Pujols and Bob Gibson, maybe. But one of the players has to be a pitcher to be worth it.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
The Cardinals are up against it unless they expand the payroll. If you count Albert Pujols’ existing contract, they’re alread obligated to pay out a guaranteed $55 million-plus to players in 2010, and it’s about the same in 2011. And keep in mind that the salary number is likely higher than that, because it does not include the arbitration-related salaries that will be paid to Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. On the positive side, the list does include three starting pitchers who are locked in for the next two (at least) seasons: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse. So they do have a rotation foundation to work with. And there are some young pitchers (Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.) worthy of an opportunity. But if Matt Holliday commands, say, $15 million a year, you are looking at $70 million to $80 million guaranteed obligations for each of the next two seasons.And that doesn’t include Pujols’ likely increase if there’s a new contract for him. Either way, it doesn’t leave a lot of spending room for other needs, including third base, a strong fourth outfielder, perhaps a veteran starting pitcher, and the bench. The Cardinals can pull it off, but it’ll be tight. The question is: what is Holliday worth? Is he a $20 million a year player? No. Is he a $15 million a year player? I don’t think so, but he will be if some other team is crazy enough to offer it. I can’t set Holliday’s market price. The teams shopping for left fielders will do that. But I see no reason why he’d have to be paid as much as Pujols. Not even close, really. If the market breaks in the Cardinals’ favor, they might be able to get Holliday at a “reduced rate”, though we’re still talking about an awful lot of money.

DERRICK GOOLD:
If that were the Cardinals only payroll bloc to maneuver around then maybe. But it’s not. The Cardinals also have Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse locked up for, possibly, the next three seasons, and in 2011 that trio will cost $33.5 million That means more than two-third of the projected payroll can be isolated on five players. The only way the Cardinals — or any other team for that matter — can lump so much of the payroll on so few players is if they can count on getting contributions from prospects and young stars — not players, stars — who not yet arbitration eligible. Colby Rasmus, for example, is one. Brendan Ryan, for another couple seasons, is another. Lefty Jaime Garcia projects as one. Outside the organization, however, the Cardinals are not viewed as a team that can lean this much on its minor-league system. The depth of the organization has improved. But its depth is mainly in complementary players. The Cardinals have players who will play in the majors. But there is a difference between minor-leaguers who play in the majors, those who stay in the majors and ones who will star in the majors. The Cardinals don’t have the obvious contributors storming up the ranks to paint themselves into a financial corner.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What are three keys to the Cardinals securing a Game 1 win tonight?

JOE STRAUSS

1. The Cardinals enjoy an edge in the pitching match-up but need to exploit the advantage by practicing what hitting coach Hal McRae has recently preached: aggressiveness within a tighter strike zone. My thinking is that seeing Skip Schumaker in CF would reinforce that suggestion.

2. Chris Carpenter merely needs to be Carpenter. He has beaten the Dodgers in each of five career starts. He knows that. They know that. The longer he goes, the more obvious the outcome should be to all. His five-and-dive in Cincinnati should leave him in good position for a strong outing tonight.

3. This sounds elementary, but the Cardinals have to more closely resemble the much-improved defensive unit of August than the comedic version that ended the season. Extra outs can neutralize the best pitchers and look to be the Dodgers’ only leverage against Carpenter.

DERRICK GOOLD

1. Chris Carpenter pitching like Chris Carpenter.

2. Ryan Franklin rediscovering his first-half form.

3. The defense waking up from its weeklong, collective and uncharactertistic slumber to play the kind of crisp, sound game that has inexplicably escaped the Cardinals since they clinched.

RICK HUMMEL

1. Carpenter gets to the eighth inning.

2. Franklin closes without incident.

3. Cardinals’ middle infield plays solid defense

JEFF GORDON

1. Chris Carpenter pitches at his very best. If he does that, he can shut down a deep and dangerous Dodgers offense. He and Adam Wainwright are the equalizers.

2. Outfielders not named Matt Holliday need to hit. The run production from the No. 5 spot in the batting order has been sporadic. This would be a great time for Ryan Ludwick to heat up again.

3. Ryan Franklin needs to close. We all saw his lack of sharpness late in the season. But he’s needed now.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cards went 5-2 against the Dodgers in two series played back in July and August. That was then. This is now. How do you think the Cardinals match up with the Dodgers?

DERRICK GOOLD
St. Louis’ regular-season success masks the fact that the Cardinals didn’t really hit well against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In seven games this past season, the Cardinals, as a lineup, hit .218 with a .306 on-base percentage and a .343 slugging percentage. The Dodgers were able to contain the middle of the Cardinals’ order, pitching around Pujols (who hit .222 vs. LA, but had a .400 on-base percentage) and handcuffing Ryan Ludwick (.192/.276/.192). Matt Holliday offers somewhat of a deterrent there for the Dodgers, but he too had his troubles with LA pitching (4-for-22 at Dodger Stadium). All of that reveals how the Cardinals went 5-2 against the Dodgers this season: pitching. And that hasn’t changed from the regular season to October. Of all of the numbers that can be tossed out there to illustrate the Division Series ahead, it’s really two names that define the Cardinals’ edge in this series: Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.

RICK HUMMEL
The edge the Cardinals have over the Dodgers is that they have two premier, top-of-the-line starters in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and the Dodgers have only one — and Clayton Kershaw still is in training. But Kershaw could be deadly pitching in Thursday afternoon’s twilight. The 5-2 mark is very misleading because many of the games were very close but in a five-game series, the team having two outstanding starting pitchers who potentially could make four starts is the better team.

JEFF GORDON
Randy Wolf will be a major pain for the Cardinals, given his ability to exploit their various offensive weaknesses. And LA has hammers at the back of its bullpen. But the Cards have a huge advantage with top-end pitching and with the Pujols/Holliday combo. The Dodgers are still sorting through their pitchers. The Cards seem set up to prevail in a short series. Neither team played great down the stretch and both teams have playoff-tested Hall of Fame-caliber managers, so this will be fun.

GERRY FRALEY
This is, by far, the better matchup for the Cardinals. The Dodgers lack a dominating starter. Their opening-game starter, lefthander Randy Wolf, is the bad-karma pitcher of the season. The Dodgers have nine blown saves behind Wolf, who has trouble getting beyond the sixth inning. Lefthander Clayton Kershaw allowed 4.79 walks per nine innings and also usually departs in the middle innings. The bullpen is fried after working 553 innings, the third-highest total in the majors. (The Cardinals’ bullpen had the fewest innings in the majors at 437.) The Cardinals were also among the first team to discover that Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers’ No. 3 hitter, can no longer handle hard stuff inside. Ramirez went 4-for-28 with no homers, one RBI and only two extra-base hits during the season series with the Cardinals.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: There’s been much talk about which of the Cardinals two aces is the stronger Cy Young contender, Chris Carpenter (16-4, 2.30 ERA) or Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.58 ERA). More importantly, which of the two do you think should take the mound for Game 1 of the National League Divisional Series?

JOE STRAUSS

Either seems appropriate when you’re discussing the possible 1-2 finishers for the Cy Young Award. A five-game Division Series would mean that whomever is bypassed for the Game 1 start would open the NLCS should the club gets that far. I don’t think the debate rises to a controversy, especially after Wainwright threw a team season-high 130 pitches in Saturday’s win over the Rockies. Carpenter may be better equipped to make two starts in a first-round series. I await more compelling pending Round Two discussion, such as the make-up of the bullpen’s right side.

BERNIE MIKLASZ

On the surface, go with Carpenter. He has more postseason experience as a starting pitcher. But other factors are in play. The opponent? Home or away? It depends. Perhaps Carpenter matches up against a certain team better than Wainwright — or vice versa. The manager can’t go wrong on this one.

DERRICK GOOLD

In almost every way, Chris Carpenter is viewed as the leader of the pitching staff. And that doesn’t even begin to cover it. Carpenter is one of the rare pitchers whose influence crosses the aisle to the position players as well. Infielders, outfielders, whomever, describe how Carpenter is a leadership presence — perhaps even the strongest leadership presence — in the Cardinals’ clubhouse. He’s comfortable offering “suggestions” to youngters about how to carry themselves on the field, just as he’s willing to offer some celebration pointers to a member of the Cardinals’ front office. Simply, Carpenter sets the tone for the Cardinals — and that is why he should start Game 1. Adam Wainwright may win the Cy Young Award this season, and he may in fact be a Carpenter-in-training, but Carpenter’s experience in the playoffs and contagious poise is why he should make the first start for the Cardinals in the postseason. That, and he kinda, you know, pitches pretty well.

RICK HUMMEL

Wainwright is the stronger candidate because he will have anywhere from two to four more victories than Carpenter and if Wainwright reaches 20, there is no question that he should be the Cy Young Award winner. He probably should be the winner at 19 anyway. But that having been said, Carpenter is the acknowledged ace of this team — by Wainwright, too — and Carpenter will and should pitch the first playoff game.

JEFF GORDON

Wainwright is the sturdier of the two right now, so I would open with him knowing that he is the best candidate to get extra or short-rest starts as the playoffs go on.

DAN O’NEILL

I think Carpenter is the right choice to pitch Game 1. He is a former Cy Young Award winner, he is recognized as the leader of the Cardinals staff by his peers and the rest of the league, and he is recognized as one of the best pitchers in the game. Wainwright will win the NL Cy Young this season, and is certainly deserving of “ace” recognition … on many staffs. On this staff, Carpenter has earned that designation. And Wainwright would be the first to say so.

GERRY FRALEY

Chris Carpenter should start the playoff opener. He’s pitched well, and every extra day of rest that Adam Wainwright can get at this time of the season will only help him. Carpenter has less wear on him than other playoffs-bound starters because he spent six weeks on the disabled list in the first half. Wainwright has not missed a turn and has six more starts and 39 1/3 more innings than Carpenter. That is significant. So are Wainwright’s pitch totals. In his last start, on Saturday at Colorado, he threw 130 pitches in eight demanding innings. It was the second-highest pitch total in the National League this season, one fewer than former Pittsburgh righthander Ian Snell had on April 29. It was also Wainwright’s fourth start of 120-plus pitches this season. Only two major-leaguers have more 120-plus pitches starts: Detroit’s Justin Verlander with nine and San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum with five. For Wainwright to make it through another month, manager Tony La Russa must use every method to get him extra rest. Going second is a good way to start.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals make it to the postseason, which National League team do you feel offers the greatest matchup problems for the Redbirds?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Phillies. They lead the league in runs, homers and slugging. They’re the best slugging team in the NL against righthanded pitchers, and the Cardinals have a RH rotation. The Phillies’ rotation was upgraded substantially with the addition of Cliff Lee and this is the one playoff-bound NL team that can match up reasonably well with rhe Cardinals’ big three of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. For some reason, Carpenter hasn’t pitched well in Philly; he has a 6.75 ERA in three career starts at Citizens Bank Park. That said, Wainwright was magnificent there in his only start, and Pineiro hasn’t allowed a run there in two starts. The Phillies rake well at Busch Stadium; Ryan Howard and their big hitters like the place. In 17 games in STL the Phillies have averaged 6.9 runs since Busch opened in 2006. The X factor would be Brad Lidge. The Phillies closer is having a horrible season, and if that continues, the Phillies are vulnerable late.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Phillies. The Cardinals may be 10-2 against lefthanded starters since Matt Holliday arrived, but the Phillies still have lefties like Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Jamie Moyer who can tie the Cardinals in knots. Joe Blanton is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA against the Cardinals this season and they have yet to figure him out. He’s 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 21 innings against the Cardinals in his career. Ryan Madson, a late-inning reliever, may be the only Albert Pujols specialist in the game. The Cardinals first baseman is 0-for-10 in his career against Madson. He doesn’t strike out against the righthander, but he doesn’t hit him well either. And that’s all without mentioning what may be the most difficult lineup in the National League to contain. The variety of hitters the Phillies throw at opponents — speed in Victorino, balance in Utley, thunder from Howard and power throughout — makes a lineup with few, if any, cracks. Forget how Howard hits like Roy Hobbs in St. Louis, whether he’s taking aim at a Red Lobster in Ballwin or crushing shots at Busch Stadium. Sure Colorado is playing as well as anyone. Yes, the LA Dodgers have Manny and pitching. Fine, the Giants have a fearsome tandem atop their pitching staff. But the defending champs have more. And Brad Lidge.

RICK HUMMEL
The world champion Phillies. They have the lefthanded-hitting firepower to contend with the Cardinals’ all-righthanded rotation. In five games, four of them wins by the Phillies, Philadelphia has outscored the Cardinals, 40-24.

JEFF GORDON
The Phillies come at you with lefthanded power and switch-hitters. They put up some football scores on the Cards earlier this season, although much of that damage came against guys like Todd Wellemeyer, Josh Kinney and Jason Motte. The addition of Cliff Lee gives them a 1-2 punch to match Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. The only soft spot on that team is Albert’s buddy Brad Lidge. A Phillies-Cards battle in the NLCS would be quite a battle.

GERRY FRALEY
As Ric Flair often said, “to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man.’’ Philadelphia, defending World Series champion, would present the biggest problems for the Cardinals in a post-season series.

LHP Cliff Lee changes the face of what was a mediocre rotation. Since being obtained from Cleveland, Lee is 5-0 with a 0.67 ERA and has allowed more than one run only once.

The Cardinals’ all-RHPs rotation will bring out the best in Phillies 1B Ryan Howard. Howard struggles against lefthanders, but goes into tonight’s play batting .312 with a .692 slugging percentage and 30 homers in 295 at-bats against righthanders.

Of course, this all changes if a Cardinals-Phillies series comes down to Albert Pujols against Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge. A year, with Lidge on top of his game, the Phillies were 79-0 when leading after eight innings. With Lidge having problems stemming from a bum knee, the Phillies are 58-7 when leading after eight innings this season.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: John Smoltz got off to a good start with the Cardinals Sunday in San Diego. How important is that given Kyle Lohse’s groin injury and what does Lohse’s injury do to the Cardinals plans to eventually move Smoltz to the bullpen?

RICK HUMMEL
Unless Smoltz encounters difficulty in his next couple of starts, he will be in the rotation until Lohse comes back, which won’t be before the second week in September. If Smoltz still is doing well, he doesn’t see the bullpen until October.

JEFF GORDON
Lohse hasn’t been right all season, so there was always a chance Smoltz could play a rotation role here — if he showed staying power. If the Cards got to the NLCS, they would likely need that fourth starter. So Smoltz’s ability to get through the Padres batting order a second time was notable. He may have to finish out the season as the No. 4 starter — unless John Mozeliak can add still another starter this week. And if I am Mozeliak, I am trying to do just that. When Lohse returns, perhaps HE could go to the bullpen given his tendency to tire in the middle innings because of his lingering forearm injury.

BRYAN BURWELL
Clearly this impressive five-inning stint combined with the loss of Lohse makes it obvious that the short term for Smoltz is as the fourth starter. Don’t expect any seven or eight inning stints, but he will be handed the ball.

GERRY FRALEY
Tony La Russa would consider this blasphemy, but the National League Central race is over. Everything the Cardinals do over the final 36 regular-season games should be with an eye toward the playoffs. Because of that, the Cardinals cannot let Kyle Lohse’s injury change their plans for John Smoltz. They will need only three starters in the post-season: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. Smoltz will be needed out of the bullpen, and the plan should not change.

Keep in mind one more thing: Smoltz threw well on Sunday against the worst offensive team in the National League. The Padres are last in runs and batting average. An American League lineup of the type that beat up Smoltz while with Boston it is not.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
It’s a nice bonus but with an 8-game lead over the Cubs and only 36 games remaining I think the team should stick with the plan to eventually work Smoltz into a late-inning role. It might be wise to extend his stay in the rotation a bit longer than previously planned but the ultimate goal should still be to send him to the pen because they’ll need what he brings to the table out there come playoff time.

A fourth starter isn’t necessary in the playoffs but having someone who can blow hitters away in the 7th and 8th innings most certainly is. The Cards can make it through the rest of the regular season without setup help, but the playoffs are another story.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: On this date last year the Cardinals were 12 games above .500 at 70-58, yet they already trailed the Chicago Cubs by 11.5 games in the National League Central. Fast forward one year and the Cardinals are 15 games above .500 and lead the Cubs by six games. The Cubs are struggling to keep their record above .500 while the Cards seem to be picking up steam. What do you see as the main reasons for the disparity in records of the two clubs between this season and last?

DERRICK GOOLD
The Karma of Mark DeRosa. Things started to go bad for the Cubs when they traded DeRosa to Cleveland in order to clear salary and roster space that was eventually used to sign the human volcano, Milton Bradley. Things started to go right for the Cardinals once DeRosa returned from his wrist injury and heralded a parade of newcomers that have elevated the Cardinals from a division challenger to a pennant contender. So, it’s DeRosa. Well, it’s at least figuratively DeRosa.

One of the biggest tangible reasons is the ninth inning. The Cardinals would have won the division last year if games ended after the sixth inning, but instead they stumbled to more than 30 blown saves and were, as mentioned in the question, light years away from running down the Cubs. This year, the Cubs have 17 blown saves in 46 opportunities. Six of those belong to unsteady closer Kevin Gregg, and the only NL teams with more relief losses than the Cubs all have losing records.

It’s as simple as DeRosa is symbolic: Own the ninth, stay in the hunt.

RICK HUMMEL
The bullpen is one big difference. The Cardinals have had a strong closer in Ryan Franklin. The Cubs haven’t. The Cubs’ best player, Aramis Ramirez, was out for more than two months with injury. The Cardinals’ best player, Albert Pujols, has been there from the start. He is the league’s best player. The Cardinals clearly are the better team now, with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo on board. But don’t give up on the Cubs yet. They easily could be the wild-card team if they don’t run down the Cardinals.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cubs many problems can be encapsuled in three players: Mark DeRosa, Aramis Ramirez and Geovanny Soto.

A year ago, the trio combined for 71 homers and 284 RBIs with the Cubs. This season, they have 18 homers and 63 RBIs entering Wednesday night’s play. The Cubs traded DeRosa to Cleveland in the off-season to clear payroll space for the left-handed bat that manager Lou Piniella wanted. That was Milton Bradley, and he has been an expensive bust and a disruptive presence in the clubhouse.
Ramirez missed about two months because of a dislocated left shoulder, and the offense withered about him.

Soto looks more and more like a one-year wonder.

With these three players hot last season, the Cubs led the National League with 5.31 runs per game. They are down to 10th with 4.44 runs per game this season. This will not be the year for the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON
Last year injuries destroyed the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright went down and Chris Carpenter didn’t make it back. Jason Isringhausen broke down and the Cards never found a reliable closer. This year the Cards have Wainwright, Carpenter and a reliable closer, Ryan Franklin. So this team was contending for the NL Central crown before adding all the offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, suffered every imaginable injury setback this year. And unlike the Cards, they lack a reliable closer.

DAN O’NEILL
The Cubs are a mess, with problems in the bullpen and the starting rotation. The Cardinals have added Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and discovered Ryan Franklin is a dependable closer. Last, but certainly not least, they have a healthy Chris Carpenter. End of story.