THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin seems to be the consensus No. 1 overall pick in tonight’s NBA draft. You’ve all seen him play in Big 12 action … do you believe Griffin will be a difference-maker in the NBA? Before answering, consider the last 10 surefire picks who went No. 1 in the draft:

2008—Derrick Rose, Chicago
2007—Greg Oden, Portland
2006—Andrea Bargnani, Toronto
2005—Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee
2004—Dwight Howard, Orlando
2003—LeBron James, Cleveland
2002—Yao Ming, Houston
2001—Kwame Brown, Washington
2000—Kenyon Martin, New Jersey
1999—Elton Brand, Chicago

BRYAN BURWELL
The NBA draft, like every other draft, is more inexact science than a guaranteed method for finding great players. But I have seen more than enough of Blake Griffin to believe that he will be an immediate impact player. He is a better athlete and a superior post player than Micheal Beasley, who has already shown that he is capable of being a 20-10 guy in the pros.

VAHE GREGORIAN
Seems to me there’s every reason to believe Griffin will be a fine-to-very good NBA player. But I don’t see him at all as a difference-maker along the lines of LeBron James or Dwight Howard among recent overall No. 1 picks. And that will be especially true if he indeed becomes a Clipper, where he’ll more likely be swamped than able to pull them out of the mire.

JEFF GORDON
Griffin is extremely agile for such a big guy, so he will be a solid NBA player. He can jump and he can finish. He is a mediocre free throw shooter, though, and he doesn’t have a “long” physical build, so there reason to doubt his potential as a defender and shot blocker. He dominated as a man among boys at the college level, so it’ll be fun to watch him evolve against more powerful competition. I don’t believe he is a sure NBA all-star by any means.

LUKE THOMPSON
Griffin still has some work to do before anyone compares him to the elite big men in the league, but he’s earned the No. 1 spot based mostly on his impressive performance (22.7 points and 14.4 rebounds per game), rather than potential. That’s what separates him from previous busts like Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani and maybe Greg Oden after a couple more years. Obviously, his strength and quickness advantages won’t be the same in the NBA as they were in the Big 12, but he’s dedicated enough and smart enough to find other ways to succeed. He needs to step up his defense and extend the range on his jump shot before he becomes an All-Star, but he looks like a solid starter at worst as long as the Clippers don’t ruin his career like they have so many others.

CARLOS AYULO
There’s no doubt that the overall No. 1 pick in the NBA draft has been a crap shoot the last ten years. But the Los Angeles Clippers get lucky for the third time with Blake Griffin falling in their lap. Griffin should help the Clippers contend for the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoffs next season, especially with Phoenix and Dallas on the downside. The Oklahoma forward can play the low post, has a decent mid-range jumper and should win Rookie of Year. Griffin could be a star and keep the Clippers competitive as he matures, BUT, there is always the fear that being drafted by arguably one of the league’s worst franchises may hurt Griffin’s long-term potential. As a history lesson, former LA Clippers’ 1988 No. 1 pick Danny Manning was an All-Star twice. Their other No. 1 pick was Michael Olowokandi, drafted in 1998. ‘The Kandiman’ is considered one of the worst No. 1 picks ever.