THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: On this date last year the Cardinals were 12 games above .500 at 70-58, yet they already trailed the Chicago Cubs by 11.5 games in the National League Central. Fast forward one year and the Cardinals are 15 games above .500 and lead the Cubs by six games. The Cubs are struggling to keep their record above .500 while the Cards seem to be picking up steam. What do you see as the main reasons for the disparity in records of the two clubs between this season and last?

DERRICK GOOLD
The Karma of Mark DeRosa. Things started to go bad for the Cubs when they traded DeRosa to Cleveland in order to clear salary and roster space that was eventually used to sign the human volcano, Milton Bradley. Things started to go right for the Cardinals once DeRosa returned from his wrist injury and heralded a parade of newcomers that have elevated the Cardinals from a division challenger to a pennant contender. So, it’s DeRosa. Well, it’s at least figuratively DeRosa.

One of the biggest tangible reasons is the ninth inning. The Cardinals would have won the division last year if games ended after the sixth inning, but instead they stumbled to more than 30 blown saves and were, as mentioned in the question, light years away from running down the Cubs. This year, the Cubs have 17 blown saves in 46 opportunities. Six of those belong to unsteady closer Kevin Gregg, and the only NL teams with more relief losses than the Cubs all have losing records.

It’s as simple as DeRosa is symbolic: Own the ninth, stay in the hunt.

RICK HUMMEL
The bullpen is one big difference. The Cardinals have had a strong closer in Ryan Franklin. The Cubs haven’t. The Cubs’ best player, Aramis Ramirez, was out for more than two months with injury. The Cardinals’ best player, Albert Pujols, has been there from the start. He is the league’s best player. The Cardinals clearly are the better team now, with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo on board. But don’t give up on the Cubs yet. They easily could be the wild-card team if they don’t run down the Cardinals.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cubs many problems can be encapsuled in three players: Mark DeRosa, Aramis Ramirez and Geovanny Soto.

A year ago, the trio combined for 71 homers and 284 RBIs with the Cubs. This season, they have 18 homers and 63 RBIs entering Wednesday night’s play. The Cubs traded DeRosa to Cleveland in the off-season to clear payroll space for the left-handed bat that manager Lou Piniella wanted. That was Milton Bradley, and he has been an expensive bust and a disruptive presence in the clubhouse.
Ramirez missed about two months because of a dislocated left shoulder, and the offense withered about him.

Soto looks more and more like a one-year wonder.

With these three players hot last season, the Cubs led the National League with 5.31 runs per game. They are down to 10th with 4.44 runs per game this season. This will not be the year for the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON
Last year injuries destroyed the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright went down and Chris Carpenter didn’t make it back. Jason Isringhausen broke down and the Cards never found a reliable closer. This year the Cards have Wainwright, Carpenter and a reliable closer, Ryan Franklin. So this team was contending for the NL Central crown before adding all the offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, suffered every imaginable injury setback this year. And unlike the Cards, they lack a reliable closer.

DAN O’NEILL
The Cubs are a mess, with problems in the bullpen and the starting rotation. The Cardinals have added Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and discovered Ryan Franklin is a dependable closer. Last, but certainly not least, they have a healthy Chris Carpenter. End of story.

THE WATERCOOLER:
The Cubs have lost five in a row but could get Aramis Ramirez back today and Ted Lilly on Monday. (No word yet on Carlos Zambrano.) Is it too early to count the Cubs out in the NL Central?

BRYAN BURWELL:
History shows us that the Cards don’t surrender leads this large this late. Now, combine that with the nightmarish cruel history of the Cubs and all the injuries and instability going on in Wrigleyville, and there is no other answer than “Turn out the lights, the party’s over.”

JOE STRAUSS:
The math still works for the Cubs but the direction of their season makes it hard to believe they will win a third consecutive NL Central title. Lilly and Zambrano are huge variables; however, Ramirez can transform the Cubs from a mediocre to a dangerous offense. His shoulder problems are more persistent than a 15-day stay on the disabled list. The Cubs remain inept on the road and against solid competition. Barring a sweep of the Cardinals during their three-game set at Busch Sept. 18-20, this just doesn’t seem to be the Cubs’ year. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have the look of a dangerous team: relatively healthy with three consistent starters and a deep lineup. Simply put, the Cardinals appear in control.

RICK HUMMEL:
With third baseman Aramis Ramirez returning, the Cubs again have a formidable lineup. They will be involved down to the last week. The gap between the Cardinals and Cubs got big all of a sudden but consider that the Cardinals were playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati while the Cubs were playing at Colorado and were home to Philadelphia. The Cardinals are 1-8 themselves against those two teams.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Yes, though it’s tempting. The Cardinals are playing well enough to pull away. The Cubs have spent most of the season straggling behind in the division race, struggling with injuries and playing below their potential. They have shown in the past that they can go where Aramis Ramirez takes them, and if he comes back, healthy and productive, it will be a needed jolt for the Cubs. It could be good enough to get them back on track and with a dash or two of healthy pitching they could go on a run. But Ramirez is a question mark. The Cardinals know the pitfalls of a third baseman coming back from a shoulder injury all too well.

GERRY FRALEY:
The Cubs are finished, as is the National League Central race. The Cubs have been a mis-matched team all season. Even if they were playing well, the Cubs would have difficulty catching the first-place Cardinals. The teams have only three games remaining, at Busch Stadium on Sept. 18-20. The Cubs also face a brutal schedule that includes two more trips to California and 50 games in a 52-day stretch through Sept. 27.
The Cubs are done.

JEFF GORDON:
Since Ramirez’s shoulder troubles aren’t likely to disappear this season, the Cubs are headed in the wrong direction. They lack a reliable closer. The Milton Bradley Experiment still looks like a failure. With the ownership of the franchise in limbo, the team hasn’t been able to make major roster upgrades. Manager Lou Piniella seems exasperated by the group and its collective bad luck. If the Cubs don’t snap out of their funk immediately, the Cards playing a favorable schedule, could quickly build a substantial lead. So I don’t think it is too soon to dismiss the Small Bears.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Even with all the offensive firepower the Cardinals have added recently, which team do you see as the biggest threat to St. Louis for the NL Central crown and why?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cubs are the only real threat. They were supposed to be the best team in the division and they still well may be the best, IF lefthander Ted Lilly, their most effective pitcher this season, doesn’t miss too much time with knee and shoulder miseries.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs. There is a reason why the Cubs have one of the highest payrolls in the majors — they have a lot of talent and they, arguably, have the best lineup and most imposing rotation … when … healthy. And that’s the key. The Cubs have been hanging around, hanging around, hanging around and hanging around and the longer they hang around the more time they have to get their Wrigley together, ditch the chaos and injuries from earlier this season and play like they’re capable. Their Central foes had their chance to pull away from the Cubs. And they didn’t.

JEFF GORDON
Until Roy Oswalt went down, I liked the Astros. That team has been on a prolonged upturn. The ’Stros can really beat up opponents in its bandbox stadium. But they have to have their ace. If Oswalt misses significant time with his back strain, that makes the Cubs the biggest threat — even without Ted Lilly. Neither team seems likely to make a major move at the trade deadline, though, so both teams could lose some steam.

GERRY FRALEY
The Chicago Cubs have the best talent in the NL Central. The most telling sign of that is the Cubs have not been buried despite nearly four months of slipshod play. The Cubs win despite themselves because they can out-talent most teams.

The Central will be a two-month drag race between the Cardinals and the Cubs. How soon ailing lefthander Ted Lilly returns to the Cubs’ rotation will be a significant factor. It is possible the rivalry will carry over into October. The clubs could push each other so hard that both will get into the playoffs, with the runnerup as the wild-card entrant.

LUKE THOMPSON
Even without their recent hot streak, the Cubs would seem to be the team with the best chance to challenge the Cardinals in the final two months. Lou Piniella’s team was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and now Aramis Ramirez is back, as is Milton Bradley, who is finally starting to hit. Of course, injury issues continue to cause problems, most notably with All-Star Ted Lilly. But the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central on paper, and that is probably still true even with the Cardinals’ new additions. It’s quite possible their one remaining series on September 18-20 in St. Louis could have large title implications.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cubs. They’ve had key players underperforming all season long, they’ve had injuries and a half dozen on-field temper tantrums that have almost cost them a Gatorade machine. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong — at least until recently — and yet they’re right there in the race.

The Cards have had plenty of bad breaks themselves, make no mistake about that. They and the Cubs are actually quite similar when you think about it. Neither team has played as well as it can play and now the Cardinals have some significant new pieces to play with. I also say the Cubs are the biggest threat to the Cards because I don’t think the Astros or the Brewers are all that hot. They’ll fade while the Cards and Cubs continue to sprint toward the finish.