THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Matt Holliday’s agent Scott Boras was quoted in a Post-Dispatch story Wednesday talking about the Cardinals, saying, “If you’re drawing 3.3 million fans and you’re averaging $50 a fan coming in, I just don’t know that mid-market term.” Is Boras correct in his implication that due to the revenue generated by high attendance numbers year after year that the Cardinals should not be considered a mid-market club? Do you feel the team uses “mid-market” status as an excuse to keep the payroll lower than it is actually capable of paying?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Scott Boras has a simple job: to pimp for his client and get the most money possible. And he’s criticizing ownership in St. Louis to put pressure on the Cardinals to pony up for his guy. It’s a negotiating tactic. Nothing more, nothing less. Boras is hoping that Bill DeWitt freaks out and offers a blank check to Holliday. It won’t happen. DeWitt is many things, but the last time I looked, he seemed to be rather smart, and he’s also sane. That isn’t what Boras wants. The agent’s success is based on finding the one or two completely crazy owners out there who will rush in, lose their heads and anxiously capitulate to his demands. That’s why Boras is so terrific at his job. He usually gets the kooks to overreact.

DERRICK GOOLD
Mid-market has become a shield as much as a designation for many baseball teams. Some can cower behind the protection of that “mid-market” designation and pocket additional profit while weeping over an inability to keep or sign top-flight players. St. Louis certainly cuts the image of a mid-market city. Its media size is mid-range. Its population is mid-size. Its Fortune 500 footprint falls behind Chicago and Houston in the NL Central Division. So on. So on.

So St. Louis is a mid-market city, but the St. Louis Cardinals are not a mid-market baseball club, and nor do they operate like one. Their fanbase defies the mid-market label. Go beyond the 3 million that Scott Boras cited and consider the merchandising that comes with being one of the most recognizable brands in baseball. Or, think of the broadcast fees the Cardinals command because of the sheer geography of their fandom. It’s Cardinals Nation, not Cardinals Suburb. Boras is correct.

All of that allows the Cardinals to operate with a payroll bigger than their market. There is a symbiotic relationship between attendance and fanbase spending and the club’s payroll. With one ranking high within baseball, so should the other, and vice versa. The Cardinals acknowledge that, and they should be held to that.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals, while certainly mid-market as far as metropilitan area population, are higher than that because of their 3,000,000 attendance every year. However, they don’t have nearly the broadcast revenue of the New Yorks, Bostons, Los Angeles teams and the Chicago teams. Therein lies the major issue in their trying to bid with those teams for free-agent players.

JEFF GORDON
When you factor in media revenue — a huge piece of the puzzle — the Cards are an upper mid-level team. They are well behind the LA teams, the NY teams, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. They are in that next group and that is pretty much how the franchise spends. The Cards will outspend teams like Cincinnati, Atlanta, Cleveland for years to come. This means the team can afford to pay Albert Pujols the going rate . . . but it also means the Cards can’t go deep in the Matt Holliday sweepstakes.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
According to Forbes Magazine the Cardinals are 7th in terms of franchise value, a number Boras also cited yesterday, though incorrectly using that ranking for revenue rather than franchise value. Forbes ranked the Cardinals 10th in total revenue for the 2008 season (too early for ’09 numbers to be considered) and they were 12th for 2007.

Based on those rankings, I’d have to say the “mid-market” label is misleading. The Cardinals generate more revenue than teams in much bigger markets, like Houston and Dallas, and the size of the media market isn’t as important as how much money comes in.

Their payroll ranking is generally right where their revenue ranking is. The Cardinals had the 11th highest payroll in baseball in 2006, 2007 and 2008. They were 6th if you go back as far as 2005 and they were 13th in 2009 because they adjusted their season-opening payroll over concerns about the economy. Then they added significant salaries like Mark DeRosa and Holliday as the season went on. They could afford to expand the payroll, I have no doubt about that, but it’s not like they’re pulling a fast one on the fans.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you think will be the strongest determining factor(s) as to whether or not Tony La Russa returns as Cardinals manager after his contract expires at the end of this season?

JOE STRAUSS
1. Inner drive
2. Team’s success
3. Working relationship with front office/ownership
4. Job availability elsewhere

BERNIE MIKLASZ
La Russa usually bases his decision on his relationship with players, and certainly that will be an important factor again. But this time his relationship with Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak will be the most substantial consideration. It will come down to trust. Namely: does La Russa believe that management is committed to giving him a reasonable chance to win?

RICK HUMMEL
La Russa stays if he thinks (a) the players still tolerate him, (b) management still wants him, (c) the fans haven’t turned on him and (d) if the Cardinals have a good enough season in 2009 and a nucleus that could challenge for a world title in 2010. But (e) I think he’ll think 14 years is quite enough, especially if the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs for a third straight season.

DERRICK GOOLD
Simply, his fire. If manager Tony La Russa still burns to compete, to manage, to spend months away from home, days leaning on a fungo bat and some nights tossing and turning in his office at Busch Stadium, then he’ll return. If he gets to a point where even he doesn’t buy the message he’s selling after all of these years, then he’ll take a break or call it a career. Sure he wants to be supplied with a ready-to-contend club — who doesn’t? — but the Cardinals offer him a comfort and an environment that is appealing and supportive beyond the competitive level of the team. They cater to him and his staff. He recognizes that. Only when he cannot meet his own standards of competitive verve will he walk away.

JEFF GORDON
Can the kids play? If Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, Brett Wallace, Jason Motte, David Freese, Joe Mather, Jess Todd, Jon Jay et al are really all that, then the Cards will be highly competitive going forward. Tony La Russa would have a chance to mold the next generation of players. But if the emphasis on player development doesn’t pay off, then the philosophical differences between TLR and Bill DeWitt/John Mozeliak will drive him away.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

TEN NIGHTS IN FEBRUARY: In the immortal words of Jim Mora, “Playoffs?!? Playoffs?!?”

Yes, I know it may sound absurd talking about the Blues playoff chances as they sit in last place today in the Western Conference. Blues players and the front office certainly have tried to steer clear of too much playoff talk, rather focusing on the “one-game-at-a-time” mantra. But I’m here to tell you that ten nights in February will be the make-or-break period that defines this team’s season.

And it begins tonight, fittingly, in a game against the team now holding the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference — Vancouver. In the next ten games, a period that will end in Phoenix on Feb. 28, the Blues will be doing battle almost solely against teams within striking distance in the Western Conference. It’s a unique opportunity for this team to pick up points, climb in the standings and be sitting on the cusp of a playoff spot when the calendar hits March.

Currently the Blues are in 15th place with 50 points. Take a look at the upcoming sked, with total team points and where the teams’ stand in the Western Conference:

Vancouver, 56 points, 8th place
@ Nashville, 53 points, 12th place
Chicago, 66 points, 4th place
New York Rangers (6th place in Eastern Conference)
@ Columbus, 55 points, 10th place
@ Nashville
Nashville
Phoenix, 53 points, 13th place
@ Dallas, 59 points, 5th place
@ Phoenix

You look at that sked and tell me the import of these next ten games. The Blues get three shots at 12th-place Nashville and two against 13th-place Phoenix. And in the last ten games they’ve played, the Blues have performed as well or better than all of these teams ahead of them in the conference. This is the pivotal point of the season. A strong run in the next ten games (let’s say 14 or 15 points) puts them in the thick of the race. On the flip side, coming out of this stretch at .500 most likely leaves the Blues on the outside looking in again this year.

It begins tonight. Vancouver. One game at a time.

A-ROD, A-ROID, A-FRAUD: So Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez — after getting caught — comes clean (no pun intended) and admits he was using steroids while with the Texas Rangers from 2001-2003. What, does this really surprise anyone? Just because the guy has had a relationship with the modern-day Madonna, did you think it meant He walked on water? I think it’s sad news for the game of baseball as many thought Rodriguez ultimately, and legitimately, would one day grab the title of Home Run King from Barry Bonds. Now we know Rodriguez’s numbers will be tainted, too, along with the rest of them. But I really can’t say I’m surprised … in fact, there’s not a name in the game that could come out as having used ’roids some time in the last ten years that would truly surprise me. Not one. I’m not saying everyone did it, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be surprised. Would you? Really?

As expected, the New York tabloids are having a field day with A-Rod’s “confession.” I particularly enjoyed a column by Daily News columnist Mike Lupica, where he says, “(Rodriguez) says he was young, stupid, naive. The fact of the matter is that he took the drugs for the same reason they all took them — to get bigger and stronger and better. In that way he is no better than Barry Bonds or any other drug cheat.”

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THINGS TO PONDER

ONE TOKE OVER THE LINE: Swimmer Michael Phelps tells the Baltimore Sun “it will take a few months” to decide whether he’s willing to commit to the 2012 Olympics. After recently being pictured in a British tabloid smoking a bong, it’s not all that surprising Phelps needs time sorting out his thoughts … it comes with the territory. (Or so I’m told.)

Speaking of Phelps, if you haven’t seen the Seth Meyers’ Weekend Update from Saturday Night Live taking Kellogg’s to task for dumping Phelps as a spokesman, you’re missing a good one. Meyers also chides USA Swimming for suspending Phelps for three months, saying: If you really want someone to stop smoking pot, giving them three months off work probably isn’t the best way to do it.

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STAT OF THE DAY

21 seconds — That is the fastest hat trick scored by a player in NHL history. The feat was accomplished by Bill Mosienko of the Chicago Blackhawks on March 23, 1952. According to “Hockey’s Top 100: The Game’s Greatest Records,” here’s how it happened: The Blackhawks were trailing the Rangers 6-2 in the third period. At 6:09, Mosienko snapped a low wrister past goalie Lorne Anderson, a rookie appearing in only his third NHL game. On the ensuing faceoff, Mosienko received a pass from teammate Gus Bodnar and put it in the net at 6:20. Another Chicago faceoff win left Mosienko with the puck and he reportedly deked Anderson off his feet, netting his third goal at 6:30. That’s it … three goals, 21 seconds.

As a side note, the Rangers fell apart and lost that game 7-6 … and that rookie goaltender? Well, Lorne Anderson never played again in the NHL.

THE WATERCOOLER
(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: With general manager Jim Hendry saying Monday that the Cubs will raise payroll again next season, what chances do the Cardinals have to stay competitive in the NL Central given their projected budget?

JOE STRAUSS
Acquiring a legitimate closer and depth for the rotation should give the Cardinals an expectation of 90 wins. That should compete next season within a division including a financially taxed Houston Astros, a Sheets-less and Sabathia-less Milwaukee Brewers and a still rebuilding Cincinnati Reds team. The Cardinals still appear dependent on the Cubs taking a step back. Budget is secondary to personnel decisions. Kyle Lohse last year proved a much better acquisition than, say, Carlos Silva.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals still will be competitive — if they add starting pitching help themselves. Jake Peavy doesn’t help that Cubs’ offense any and, as you saw, any team with decent right-handed pitching (Los Angeles Dodgers, most recently) can carve up the Cubs’ right-handed hitters.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs having a budget that could be $40 million more than the Cardinals gives them more ability to take risks and a larger margin of error, especially with their pitching. They can gamble on injury risks like Rich Harden and Jake Peavy at such high dollars because the gap in payroll gives them that option. The Cardinals don’t have that luxury and have to hinge their ability to contend on Chris Carpenter being healthy, filling in holes with cost-effective options (i.e., Trever Miller) and having more depth in place. The difference in payrolls comes down to this: Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs have the ability to paper-over their big-money import’s poor performance with another big-money outfielder. The Cardinals have to get big bangs for their bucks to contend. The Cubs can have a few busts from their bucks and still win the division.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The spending isn’t the only issue, but clearly the Cubs have a tactical advantage over the Cardinals because of their aggressive expansion of payroll. That said, money isn’t everything. The Cubs have wasted plenty of it by signing the likes of Kosuke Fukudome. But the Cubs have gained the upper hand in this rivalry by putting so much emphasis on starting pitching. The rotation carries the North Siders and the edge will be even more pronounced if Jake Peavy lands at Wrigley. The Cardinals haven’t kept up in the arms race.

JEFF GORDON
This is an interesting scenario. The Cubs will have new ownership soon. So the current regime wants to win in 2009. Why worry about the future? The next owner may want his own guys. The Cardinals are taking a longer view. Bill DeWitt is stressing player development and John Mozeliak is managing his assets for the long haul. These two aren’t going anywhere. But that doesn’t mean the Cards can’t compete in ’09. Thanks to the influx of Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, etc, Mozeliak will be able to assemble a playoff contender for $100 million or less. And thanks to the wild-card rule, the Cards don’t have to fret the Cubs winning 110 games with the Best Team Money Can Buy.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

HAVE BATS, WILL TRADE: Joe Strauss reported in this morning’s paper that the Cardinals are poised to deal from a surplus of left-handed hitters created by Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan and top prospect Colby Rasmus. Is there any question which one of those guys Cardinal fans would most like to see go? But you have to know if all the fans see it, other teams see it, also. If John Mozeliak can pull off a trade involving a quality pitcher for Chris Duncan, I say the Cardinals just go ahead and make him GM for life. No, if the team deals, I think it has to involve one of the other outfielders if you want quality in return. More on this situation in our winter meetings blog.

CRY ME A RIVER: Former Cubbie Ron Santo, who was bypassed for election to the Hall of Fame yesterday, says the voting process needs to be changed. “It’s a travesty,” Santo told the Chicago Sun-Times. “When I saw nobody got in again, I go, ‘Whoa, this is wrong.’ They can’t keep going the way they’re going. They’ve got to put a [different] committee out there.”

That’s it, Mr. Santo. Let’s get a different committee. Obviously all 64 living members of the Hall of Fame who make up the Veterans Committee do not understand what it takes to make the Hall. Santo says he’s not just speaking up for himself but for other players also. However, one has to wonder if Santo would be saying anything at all if he were already in the exclusive club. Santo was a nine-time All-Star, won five Gold Gloves and finished his career with 342 home runs and a .277 lifetime batting average. Is that enough to get you in the Hall of Fame? The Veterans Committee says no. End of story.

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A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

IT’S ALL GOOD: Yesterday in this forum I lamented the fact that I wasn’t going to get to see T.J. Oshie play alongside the other Baby Blues at the Scotty last night. While I didn’t get to see Oshie, I did see history in the making. Three things you’ll never again see happen in the same night at a Blues game: 1) The Blues score 6 goals; 2) B.J. Crombeen corrals a hat trick; and, 3) Alex Steen is on the ice and actually does something (goal and assist.) I know, I know, why do I have to say something negative the day after the Blues finally climb above .500? Perhaps it’s because I expected Steen to have a Brad Boyes-like transformation once he arrived in St. Louis and, up until last night, he seemed to be a total non-factor since coming over in the Lee Stempniak trade. But let me put a positive spin on it and say: Here’s hoping last night was the beginning of a good run for Steen.

(By the way, Blues fans, Jeremy Rutherford is feeling a bit threatened by the deluge of traffic the new Round Two blog is getting. So in the holiday spirit, I implore you to visit his Morning Skate blog to get him more “hits” than Round Two.)

STICKING IT TO THE LITTLE GUY: The NFL announced today that it is cutting more than 10 percent of its headquarters staff in response to the downturn in the nation’s economy. That’s about 150 jobs lost. I’m thinking if you took the salaries of guys like Pacman Jones and Plaxico Burress and gave it to the league, not only could you save those 150 jobs, but you could probably go on a hiring binge. Perhaps I’m just edgy because of all the jobs being lost at A-B and around the country in general, but the huge salaries paid to some guys who don’t care about all of “us” who actually pay their salaries just peeves me. I thought you were supposed to become more conservative as you got older, and here I am talking like Karl Marx. But I’m just sayin’ …

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STAT OF THE DAY

3.18 – Assuming the Cubs land Jake Peavy, that would be the combined 2008 ERA of the team’s rotation. That’s a lower team ERA than any individual ERA on the Cardinals’ staff not named Carpenter … who threw only 15.1 innings last season. By pursuing Peavy, the Cubs are clearly climbing the ladder to the top of the tree, bypassing all the low-hanging fruit.