THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you feel should be the Cardinals top priority this offseason?

JOE STRAUSS
Obviously, getting a handle on Matt Holliday’s situation is significant because of what signing him would do to the club’s financial flexibility. Likewise, losing him to free agency frees up significant money to pursue another direction. Holliday is Scott Boras’ leading free agent this winter. Boras typically leaves his top client on the market for an extended period. This tendency does not square with the Cardinals’ desire for a quick resolution. If Holliday reaches the open market, the Cardinals’ task in signing him becomes exponentially more difficult, so much so that Jason Bay’s name now freely floats within the organization. The team’s late-season meltdown against “plus” pitching underscores the need for further improvement.

DERRICK GOOLD
This very public eagerness to work on an extension with Albert Pujols strikes me as a non-traditional strategy, especially with two years remaining on his contract and his leverage likely never better with a second consecutive MVP on the way. It makes sense to do eventually, but why the push to do it now? Unless they want to do something in concert to make sure when they add a new player Pujols is still the highest-paid player . . . hmm. Simply, the priority should be outfitting the lineup around Pujols, Mr. I Want to Stay With a Contender, and to do that with the best bat that fits — the team’s finances, the team’s structure and the team’s approach, all of it. That still is Matt Holliday. Linking his best years to Pujols’ best years is in everyone’s interest.

RICK HUMMEL
The top priority is to explore the prospect of re-signing OF Matt Holliday to a long-term deal. If not, I would offer him arbitration (to make sure of getting two draft picks) and he might even accept that if there isn’t a long-term deal he likes anywhere.

JEFF GORDON
Top priority: Lock-up Albert Pujols for the long haul. Once that is done, the cornerstone is secured and all the other decisions will fall into place. The other matters are minor compared to this one. If he can’t be secured during this offseason, for whatever reason, then the need to re-sign Matt Holliday increases — since this team will need somebody to build a batting order around from 2012 on.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Bringing back the manager and the pitching coach would be at the top of my list. I’m not sure Matt Holliday is worth what the market will bear, so I wouldn’t rate him No. 1. Plus the team has kids like Allen Craig and Jon Jay who may prove worthy of an opportunity to do in 2010 what Colby Rasmus did in 2009. In fact, I’m almost leaning toward letting all the kids battle for the open roster spots early in the year and then dealing for veterans, if necessary, come June or July. I think what the team did this year worked quite well and I’d follow that pattern again just in case guys like Craig, Jay, David Freese, Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth and Mitchell Boggs have breakthroughs. Spend the money to get Albert re-signed and then deal for veterans in-season, if necessary.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Joel Pineiro will take the mound vs. the Mets tomorrow night sporting a 2.84 ERA on the season. Pineiro has far exceeded expectations this season with a renewed emphasis on the sinker. As he will hit free agency at the end of this season, and given the many other Cardinals players also reaching free agency, what do you think the chances are that the team will be able to lock up Pineiro to a new contract?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals gave Kyle Lohse $41 million over four years last September. Based on numbers other than win percentage, Pineiro is enjoying a better season. It’s hard to imagine Pineiro taking a significant lower Annual Average Value than Lohse, who did agree to backload his deal. A baseline of 3 years/$27 million may be discussed. Length of contract may be more an obstacle than AAV. It’s a matter of priorities, which underscores the organization’s need to read the Matt Holliday situation. If Holliday is extended, the club may have to scrimp on starting pitcher or delay talks of an extension with Albert Pujols. It already appears a mortal lock that next year’s No. 5 starter will come from within the organization (Garcia, Walter, Boggs, Hawksworth, McClellan). Look for any deal(s) to be weighted heavily after 2011, when several deals now on the books expire.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll have a much better chance if they lock him in as they did Kyle Lohse last year, i.e. before he goes out on the open market. Believe it or not, Pineiro, because of his outstanding control and ability to keep the ball in the ball park, will be one of the most sought-after pitching free agents.

DERRICK GOOLD
Today, those chances seem minimal. Joel Pineiro has the look of a pitcher who will follow Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, heck, even Jeff Weaver, and so many other reanimated pitchers on the path out of town. His reinvention as a sinkerball pitcher has been well-timed and mutually beneficial — the Cardinals are getting his performance in a division-title race and he’ll get the benefit of recasting his career in a contract year. The one catch is this: Are the Cardinals convinced they have a pitcher ready to move into that spot? Are they willing to turn two spots in the rotation over to a competition of Todd Wellemeyer and minor leaguers like P.J. Walters, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.? If Pineiro is gone — and most likely he is — the Cardinals better be content with who’s coming up or be willing to pay to replace him.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
If the Cardinals act early, it will improve their chances. Pineiro has reinvented himself this year; his ground-ball rate of 73.3 is the best in the majors to this point. I think Pineiro is smart enough to realize he has a great pitching coach and a terrific situation here. That said, we’ve seen jumpy MLB teams give insane contracts to pitchers, so if Pineiro hits the open market, he could be very attractive to some bigger-market teams that need a 4th or 5th starter.

GERRY FRALEY
Pineiro’s agent, Adam Katz, is a realist, and that bodes well for the Cardinals.

The coming free-agent market could be flush with top starting pitchers. Righthanders Josh Beckett, Rich Harden and John Lackey and lefthanders Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn could all be available this fall.

Pineiro has pitched well this season, but he still runs the risk of being squeezed on the free-agent market and forced to take a leftover of an offer. If the Cardinals make a fair offer, Pineiro and Katz would be wise to take the sure thing.

The alternative is to become the next Jeff Weaver. He has had a rocky ride since his standout performance for the Cardinals in their 2006 run to the World Series title. Weaver jumped to Seattle in 2007, and did not make it through the season. He spent all of last season and part of this year in the minors before making it back with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a long reliever-spot starter.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d call it 60-40 in favor of Pineiro being kept around. Both he and Wellemeyer are up after the season and the Cards don’t appear to have two Major League ready kids to take those spots heading into 2010, nor does it seem likely that Welly is brought back. In that case you almost have to re-sign Pineiro unless his demands are outrageous.

Not counting the contracts of Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa (because they came in later in the season) the Cards will have roughly $40 million freed up after the season, though that includes Pineiro’s money and the contracts of Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. Keeping Holliday would knock $15-18 million off that right off the top, leaving $22-25 million for Pineiro, DeRosa, Ludwick and any other potential free agents they’d like to retain (Ankiel, Jason LaRue, Trever Miller, etc.). Things could be tight unless payroll goes back up to the 2008 level next year.

If Pineiro isn’t looking for a Kyle Lohse contract of 4 years and $41 million (which is what I’d be asking for if I were his agent) then his chances of staying will be better. If he is seeking that big deal the Cards will be facing some difficult decisions.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given Todd Wellemeyer’s recent run of poor starts, what are the Cardinals’ best options concerning a fifth starter as they move forward?

JOE STRAUSS
The path of least resistence would be to give Wellemeyer Friday’s start against the Houston Astros before re-setting the rotation following Monday’s day off in New York. That said, organizational patience with Wellemeyer’s inconsistency may have been exhausted in his last three outings, including a poor showing in relief against the Cubs before the break.

Blake Hawksworth is in the house. He had been pitching well in Memphis — his last Triple-A start was a 7-inning, 1-hit outing in which he received no decision — and could easily be aligned for Friday’s outing. Brad Thompson also started in place of Kyle Lohse when Lohse was on the DL. PJ Walters struck out 14 in this weekend’s start in New Orleans, but his style of pitching has yet to win backers within the major-league clubhouse. Mitchell Boggs also has improved recently, though his propensity to work in and out of trouble spooks pitching coach Dave Duncan.

GM John Mozeliak remains attuned to the trade market, though finding low-cost help for the rotation (Ian Snell?) is difficult at this time of year.

Something will be done, perhaps as early as this afternoon. But the answer remains elusive.
Barring trade, the best option may be reversing roles between Thompson/Hawksworth and Wellemeyer. Most would agree, however, that represents only a temporary fix.

RICK HUMMEL
For one more start, Friday vs. Houston here, Wellemeyer is the best option. After that, the Cardinals won’t need a fifth starter for about 10 days. Then the landscape might change.

GERRY FRALEY
The fifth-starter situation calls for bargain shopping. The biggest bargain out there may be Arizona lefthander Doug Davis. He is only 5-10 but has a 3.75 ERA for a team that gave up weeks ago. Arizona’s bullpen has three blown saves behind Davis, and the offense has scored two runs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts. The drawbacks are Davis’ slow pace and high walks rate: 4.5 per nine innings. When it comes to a fifth starter, flaws should be expected.

In this search, the Cardinals will be better served looking outside the organization. The minor-league arms tried so far have been found lacking. A pennant race is no place for an overmatched kid.

BRYAN BURWELL
I think in the very short term the way the schedule sets up, La Russa could resort to a modified four-man rotation. In the long term, the club could resort to bullpen games.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Todd Wellemeyer, the most inconsistent of the Cardinals’ five starters, goes tonight in Houston against the Astros. He has averaged barely 5 innings per start and has lost three of his past five decisions. How important is tonight’s start?

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Not very. Dave Duncan is obviously committed to Wellemeyer. And Tony La Russa and Duncan obviously have little faith in alternative candidates from the system, pitchers such as Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth or Clayton Mortensen. Perhaps a test case will surface when (and if) Jaime Garcia is ready to pitch.

BRYAN BURWELL:
Wellemeyer has to know that the leash is getting extremely short at this point, particularly because of the way the schedule is laid out. La Russa could decide to go with a four-man rotation if Wellemeyer produces another clunker and who could blame him.

JOE STRAUSS:
Organizational patience with him appears to be wearing thin. In his next two starts, he needs to show more of the pitcher of last year, and not the lost cause that many have suspected he has become.

RICK HUMMEL:
The way I see it, Todd Wellemeyer has three more starts in which to prove himself, i.e. show he deserves to stay in the rotation. But after the third one of those, July 31 against Houston, the Cardinals have two off days in the next week and they wouldn’t have to use him anyway until about Aug. 12.

DERRICK GOOLD:
The start isn’t as pivotal for Wellemeyer as it is for the Cardinals in this series. I spoke with several people yesterday around the Cardinals and all refuted the idea that Wellemeyer was on game-to-game probation as a member of the rotation. The biggest reason: There isn’t a pitcher pushing to replace him. As manager Tony La Russa said, Wellemeyer knows he’s their best option and is pitching now so that he’s not “vulnerable” when they do have an alternative. That said, Wellemeyer’s start represents the tipping point of this series. Monday was the night the Cardinals had the pitching edge, with Wandy Rodriguez and his home success going tonight for Houston and the duel of aces — Roy Oswalt vs. Chris Carpenter — coming tomorrow. The pitching lined up such that the Cardinals could count on Carpenter to pitch for the series win Wednesday. Instead, a loss Monday means Wellemeyer must perform tonight so that Oswalt isn’t throwing for a series sweep.

JEFF GORDON:
You never get the sense that Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan will never take him out of the rotation. They certainly want no part of starting, say, Blake Hawksworth in that spot. But general manager John Mozeliak has enough chips to acquire a No. 5-type starter and he could force a change. Wellemeyer looked so hopelessly lost his last two times out that another horrid start would force Mozeliak to intensify his trade talks.