THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Todd Wellemeyer pitched 191 innings last season, more than double the number of innings he’d ever pitched at the major league level. He went 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA, exceeding most expectations. Do you see the innings load becoming a problem for Wellemeyer, or should he only get stronger in his second season as a full-time starter?

JOE STRAUSS
Wellemeyer missed a start last June with an elbow impingement, making his 191 innings even more impressive. Barring a recurrence of elbow problems, 190 innings is certainly realistic. He continues to improve his curveball. This is his walk year entering free agency. Plenty of reasons to expect a solid second act.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Wellemeyer had to go on the DL with an inflamed elbow in 2007, after he’d been converted to starter. Last season he avoided the DL, but did have minor elbow problems, and he was held out of the rotation for a couple of turns in June. The elbow may have bothered him some in July, when Wellemeyer had an ERA of 5.88 in six starts. But he finished strong. I was surprised that Wellemeyer overcame the issue as well as he did; he had a 3.01 ERA and allowed a batting average of .234 over his final 13 starts.

Has he learned to pace himself instead of maxing out on every pitch? That’s the question. Either way, I think the Cardinals will manage Wellemeyer well enough to keep him reasonably healthy. They have to be prudent. Last year I believe Wellemeyer pitched a couple of times when he was less than fully sound, and in one of those starts he took a horrific beatdown from the Phillies at Busch Stadium on June 13. After that, he didn’t pitch again for two weeks. That was smart. And I think the Cardinals will be more careful in 2009. If so, he should be fine.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the accepted rules of thumb when it comes to pitchers is they break down the year after a career-push of innings. A notable exception: Braden Looper. After the making the leap into the rotation in 2007 the career reliever threw 199 innings in 2008. He didn’t have the lag expected and pitched not only stronger but better. In many ways, Wellemeyer is Looper. Strong. Durable frame. He’s conditioned now as a starter. The evidence sayS Wellemeyer will have trouble the year after packing on the innings. The eye says Wellemeyer will pull a Looper.

RICK HUMMEL
Not having pitched many innings earlier in his career actually should benefit Wellemeyer, who is strong enough to handle a big workload. If he pitches well, he should make 200 innings. If he doesn’t, he still gets $4 million, but doesn’t get 200 innings.

JEFF GORDON
I believe he can be the same type of pitcher he was last year. He is a big, strong guy. In the past, he hurt himself by overthrowing against top hitters. Dave Duncan has convinced him to pace himself, throw with less velocity and concern himself more with movement and pitch location. That new approach ought to keep him on the mound.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The St. Louis Blues’ recent success has put them in position to make a run at a playoff spot. It also has muddied the trade deadline waters. What do you think the Blues should do at the trade deadline: Be buyers, sellers or stand pat with the team that got them to this point? Is it worth trading off any of the youngsters for a veteran presence?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
The Blues should stand pat. I was one who said that this team would not make the playoffs, but some way, somehow they’ve managed to put themselves in a good position. The bottom line is they can’t fool with the chemistry they’ve created. Regarding the question should the Blues trade a young player for veteran help, the answer is no. Even if the team should make the playoffs it is not a Stanley Cup contender. The Blues should continue following the same plan they’ve had all along.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Stay the course. Do not trade good young players or top prospects for short-term gain. The only way it would make sense to mortgage some of the future is if the Blues honestly believed they had a chance to win the Stanley Cup this season. And they don’t. They are playing very good hockey with what they have. There is no reason to bail out and become a seller. And there is no reason to mess with a bright future by making an impulsive, short-sighted move. Stay the course.

JEFF GORDON
The Blues should stand pat unless another team spits up a No. 1 pick to rent Keith Tkachuk. That would be too good to pass up. Otherwise, the team should skate with what it has. It is really playing well. I wouldn’t overpay hoping to make it better, though, because everything is overpriced at the deadline. The Blues have made that mistake before — and that is one reason why this franchise has never built a Cup winner.

DAN O’NEILL
Realistically, I don’t think the Blues are in a position to make a significant trade. What they need most right now is scoring help, and it’s hard to imagine they have the chips to get a player who would have much impact. Trading a scoring threat (Keith Tkachuk) for a scoring threat doesn’t make much sense, unless it is a player you can build with for the future.

That said, if there are no plans to resign Tkachuk, it would be crazy not to explore moving him, and in that regard it may behoove the team to make a deal. You hate to mess with the chemistry right now, and everyone hopes the team can make the playoffs. But realistically, is it going anywhere in the playoffs? Unlikely. So if you have a chance to help yourself by moving Tkachuk, it would make sense to do so. There is also the possibility they will find a team (Buffalo?) willing to deal for a veteran goaltender (Manny Legace). The former Blues starter has a shutout and has allowed 17 goals in eight games at Peoria.

In the big picture, the Blues should stick to their guns and keep their young players. I would hate to see them deal one of their promising newcomers (David Perron) for the purposes of making the playoffs. The goal should be to win in the playoffs, not make them.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Even if the Blues make the playoffs, no one should expect them to go past the first round. For the Blues, the victory will be getting into the postseason. If you can get a good price for a veteran like Tkachuk, you make that deal. But other than that, I think the core group of Blues has to stay intact. I don’t think this team is one player away from being significantly better. (Well, maybe if that one player was Crosby or Ovechkin, but not Pronger.) It’s not as if John Davidson is fine-tuning his roster for the stretch drive. Teams historically overpay at the trade deadline. The Blues are not in a position to overpay. The ideal kind of trade for the Blues was the one earlier this season where they got Steen and Colaiacovo for Stempniak, getting two contributors for the price of one. It’s hard to make those at the deadline. So at this point, “Standing Pat Except for Tkachuk” is probably the best course of action.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I would be aggressively looking to buy but also be more than happy to stand pat if the price of doing business isn’t agreeable. There is no need for a desperation move. If I could pull something off that made a significant difference I would do it. It’s almost unfair to even mention Chris Pronger’s name but since it’s already out there in the rumor mill I’ll go ahead and say that if I could get a player of that caliber I’d pull the trigger. I just wouldn’t move Backes, Berglund, Oshie, Johnson, Polak or any of the established forwards on the NHL roster to get it done.

The Blues have more than enough prospects for the future and, let’s be honest, you can’t possibly count on having 15-20 young, homegrown players on your team in the next year or two. There are two reasons professional sports franchises need a strong developmental system: to create cheap talent that you can add to your roster periodically and to have the ability to acquire established impact players via trade.

You never say “never” when it comes to the possibility of selling off a player or two, it just depends on what is offered. I would have to really “win” the trade to move anyone of significance off this team right now. Short of reaching the playoffs, which is the primary objective, this team needs a strong finish to give them a jumping off point for 2009-2010.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

PEAVY TALK STILL SWIRLS AROUND CUBS: For those who thought a Jake Peavy-to-the-Cubs deal was dead, it appears there still might be some life to it. The Chicago Tribune is reporting today that there are still plenty of reasons to believe a deal could be consumated before the start of the season. Peavy, 27, leads all National League pitchers with 1,256 strikeouts since his big-league debut in 2002. If the Cubs are able to somehow land Peavy, it would give the North Siders a starting rotation of five pitchers that would be considered No. 1-type pitchers for many clubs — not a Joel Pineiro to be found. Stay tuned.

NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT: Many Cardinal fans have questioned the club’s logic in not re-signing free agent pitcher Braden Looper. Perhaps the news that Looper suffered an oblique-strain after feeling a twinge while sneezing last week alters that perspective. As of now, the Brew Crew is unsure whether or not Looper will be available at season’s start. Can you imagine the gnashing of teeth in Cardinal Nation if fans here were not only holding their breath on Chris Carpenter’s return, but also had to worry about every time Looper sneezed? Ach-choo. Bless you.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

JUST HAVING SOME FUN: The folks at ESPN.com are having a little fun with NFL defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth’s new $100 million free agency contract. You just punch in your annual salary and they tell you how long it takes Haynewsorth to earn your wages. Check it out, it’s kind of fun and gives you some perspective on just what kind of money pro athletes make.

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STAT OF THE DAY

7,075 — Most offensive yards gained in an NFL season. The feat was accomplished by the 2000 St. Louis Rams. The 1984 Miami Dolphins are second with 6,936 yards and the 1998 San Francisco 49ers are third with 6,800 yards. (Source: NFL Fact and Record Book)

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the St. Louis Cardinals do acquire a couple more players via free agency or trade sometime before the season starts, are there any players you’d specifically like to see the team pursue?

JOE STRAUSS
Randy Wolf, Jon Garland and Braden Looper are names I’d key on at the first suggestion of a continued problem with Chris Carpenter (or any other member of the rotation). Let’s be blunt. Since acquiring Carpenter, the Cardinals have reached the postseason every year in which he’s delivered 28 or more starts (’04, ’05, ’06). They’ve tanked every year in which he has failed to do so (’03, ’07, ’08). There remains an alarming lack of depth within the rotation. I have a feeling one of the previously mentioned three would be willing to accept a one-year deal plus an option with the opportunity to re-file for free agency in a better economic climate. I frankly believe the Cardinals have a better chance of surviving the season with Jason Motte and Chris Perez closing than with their rotation exposed without Carpenter (or Wain’o). If Carpenter reaches spring training ready to go, great. But listing Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, Brad Thompson, Jesse Todd, etc. as a “No. 6 starter” suggests more crunch time for the bullpen.

RICK HUMMEL
I’m a big fan of lefthanded starting pitching. I’d like to see the Cardinals get either Randy Wolf or Oliver Perez. I would even take a chance on oft-injured righthander Ben Sheets.

DERRICK GOOLD
The more I look at what the Cardinals have done to improve the left side of the bullpen, the less convinced I am that they can 100-percent bank on actually being improved. Trever Miller is a clear upgrade, but the Cardinals themselves questioned his health. The other candidates are intriguing, but there’s isn’t a guarantee. So much hinges on the integrity of Miller’s labrum. To assure that the left side of the bullpen is better in 2009 than it was in 2008, bring on Will Ohman. Believed to be one of the first lefties who was going to sign this winter— with Atlanta, no less — Ohman is still out there. They wanted him in July, they can still get him in January. Beyond Ohman, for me the most fascinating free agent is — cue Joe Strauss’ signature derisive chuckle — Smoke Laval’s former ace, Ben Sheets. Sure his health is a concern, but he’s made at least 20 starts in all but one season and did pitch 198 innings in 2008. Roll the die on Cy: Get either Sheets or Chris Carpenter healthy and pitching to form and the Cardinals are in position to contend. Get both … and they are a favorite.

JEFF GORDON
This team needs a capable left-handed starter. In this favorable marketplace, it appears Oliver Perez could slip through the cracks IF the Mets sign Derek Lowe. Perez is a guy with huge potential. Maybe Dave Duncan could make him into something on a two-year basis. Failing that, Randy Wolf would be a good fit if the Dodgers don’t go overboard to bring him back to the West Coast. He’s been hurt a lot, but he knows how to pitch. This team also needs a stronger left-handed relief option. It would be a shame if the Cards struggled there this season after taking a pass on more credible lefties in the market. John Mozeliak has every opportunity to upgrade the left side of his pitching staff. Do it!

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

RICKEY MIGHTY HAPPY FOR RICKEY: Rickey Henderson, baseball’s all-time stolen bases and runs scored leader, and power-hitting outfielder Jim Rice were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Henderson got in on the first ballot, while Rice made it in on the last time he would be eligible. The pair will be inducted into the Hall July 26. Players must be named on 75 percent of the ballot for induction. Mark McGwire received just 21.9 percent of the vote.

Speaking of McGwire, I’m beginning to wonder if his omission from Hall of Fame voting has less to do with his suspected used of performance enhancers and more to do with how poor his Hall of Fame induction speech might be when he got to the podium and simply said, “I’m not here to talk about the past.”

SO LONG, TONY: 53-year-old Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy is expected to announce his retirement at a press conference this afternoon. Dungy’s success as head coach is undeniable … after 13 seasons (six with Tampa Bay and seven with the Colts), he ranks 19th in all-time victories in the NFL, leading his teams to 148 career wins including the playoffs, and he led the Colts to the 2006 Super Bowl championship. Dungy also ranks 3rd all-time in winning percentage for a coach who has coached at least 50 games with one team, going .759 with the Colts.

The NFL has lost a truly great coach, and perhaps even more importantly, an inspirational leader and a true gentleman of the game. We wish him the best in future endeavors.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

LIFE OF REILLY: I’ve read a lot of articles and columns belittling the BCS bowl process and the fact that an undefeated Utah team got completely snubbed in the process. But of all I read, perhaps no one said it better than Rick Reilly. If you’re not tired of the subject, check out what he had to say.

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STAT OF THE DAY

1 — Number of black head coaches to win a Super Bowl. That would be Tony Dungy.

THE WATERCOOLER

Question: Now that closer Brian Fuentes is out of the equation, what is the Cardinals No. 1 priority?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Same as it ever was: starting pitching. It’s folly to assume Chris Carpenter can return to full health and form. And shouldn’t the Cardinals at least take a look at Trevor Hoffman? He had a strong second half in 2008. Does the Hall of Fame closer have one more solid year left in that arm?

DERRICK GOOLD
What “is” the No. 1 priority and what “should be” the No. 1 priority are completely different questions. What “is” the No. 1 priority apparently is positioning themselves with a flexible budget so that they can: a) swoop in with a vulture’s savvy when other teams are selling off parts (yes, I’m looking at you Houston) and, b) brace themselves for a revenue stream that could fall short of initial estimates. What “should be” the No. 1 priority hasn’t changed. It’s starting pitching. The Cardinals simply do not have enough known quantities to fill out their rotation. They need someone who they know will fill innings and there are plenty of options out there. (A Braden Looper-type, even if it’s not Braden Looper, per se.) The Cardinals are counting on a healthy Chris Carpenter, and he has the salary to mandate that. But they should consider Carpenter a bonus. Build a rotation that can contend without him and be a favorite to win with him.

RICK HUMMEL
I don’t think there is a No. 1 priority. I think they need a starting pitcher and a closer. They rank equal in my mind. And I don’t think it would be impossible that they’d consider signing a pitcher who’s done both … started and closed.

DAN O’NEILL
That is somewhat of a loaded question because I don’t believe Brian Fuentes ever was in the equation, not seriously anyway. I think the Cardinals should be looking for bench strength right now. I think pitching is going to become available later because of the economic conditions. There are going to be a number of free agents signing late, ala Kyle Lohse, accepting shorter term deals, hoping for an economic turnaround and a solid 2009 so that they can cash in next winter. They don’t call me Dan “DeWait” O’Neill for nothing.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

MEET COACH MOSS: No, Winston Moss has not been named the new Rams head coach just yet. But he at least survived a round of defensive bloodletting by the Green Bay Packers. According to the Associated Press, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy cleaned house Monday by releasing defensive coordinator Bob Sanders and five other assistants. According to the report, assistant head coach-linebacker coach Moss was the only major defensive coach to keep his job. Moss interviewed Saturday for the Rams head coaching position, the first of multiple candidates expected to visit.

Moss has not commented yet on whether he feels it would be better to be fired by the Packers or hired by the Rams. Stay tuned.

FORGET EVERYTHING YOU’VE LEARNED: The Arizona Republic makes a case for the Arizona Cardinals to beat the Carolina Panthers this weekend … and bases it on historical data. No, not the fact it’s the Cardinals first trip to the playoffs in 10 years. No, not because they haven’t advanced past the second round since winning an NFL title in 1947. The Cardinals have a chance, they say, because other lower-seeded teams have gone on the road in recent years to win Super Bowls.

I’m thinking those other lower seeds didn’t finish the last six games of their seasons 2-4. And I’m guessing that if you went even a bit deeper, you’d find that those other lower seeds were not outscored 167-70 in four such losses. But if the good folks in Arizona think historical data is on their side, all I can say is, “Good luck with that.”

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THINGS TO PONDER

YES TO RICKEY, NO TO McGWIRE: The Chicago Tribune polled its nine baseball Hall of Fame voters to see who they chose to induct into this year’s class, which will be announced on Jan. 12. Base-stealing leadoff man Rickey Henderson received the only unanimous nod. Also going in on the Tribune ballots were Andre Dawson and Jim Rice. Conspicuously absent from all nine ballots … Mark McGwire. You can take a look at all nine complete ballots and read why the writers voted for the players they did at the Chicago Tribune web site.

BULLETIN BOARD BLUNDER: Nothing like calling out a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback just days before facing him in a national championship game. But that’s exactly what Oklahoma defensive back Dominique Franks did earlier this week, saying Florida quarterback Tim Tebow (who won the Heisman last year) would be only the fourth-best quarterback in the Big 12.

No. 2 Oklahoma will square off Thursday night with No. 1 Florida in the BCS championship game. Given a chance to respond at a media event today, Tebow just laughed off Franks’ comments and took a pass on responding. But Franks better beware of Tebow’s passing (both on the field and off). Imagine a game-winning pass from Tebow that sails right over Franks’ hands. Nothing better than letting your play do your talking for you … particularly to a DB who may find himself on a nationally televised island Thursday night.

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STAT OF THE DAY

$423.5 million — Total amount the Yankees have committed to just three free agents this offseason. A press conference has been scheduled for tomorrow to announce that first baseman Mark Teixeira’s eight-year, $180 million deal has been finalized. Other deals already completed by the Yanks include seven years at $161 million for pitcher CC Sabathia and five years at $82.5 million for pitcher A.J. Burnett.