THE WATERCOOLER:
The Cubs have lost five in a row but could get Aramis Ramirez back today and Ted Lilly on Monday. (No word yet on Carlos Zambrano.) Is it too early to count the Cubs out in the NL Central?

BRYAN BURWELL:
History shows us that the Cards don’t surrender leads this large this late. Now, combine that with the nightmarish cruel history of the Cubs and all the injuries and instability going on in Wrigleyville, and there is no other answer than “Turn out the lights, the party’s over.”

JOE STRAUSS:
The math still works for the Cubs but the direction of their season makes it hard to believe they will win a third consecutive NL Central title. Lilly and Zambrano are huge variables; however, Ramirez can transform the Cubs from a mediocre to a dangerous offense. His shoulder problems are more persistent than a 15-day stay on the disabled list. The Cubs remain inept on the road and against solid competition. Barring a sweep of the Cardinals during their three-game set at Busch Sept. 18-20, this just doesn’t seem to be the Cubs’ year. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have the look of a dangerous team: relatively healthy with three consistent starters and a deep lineup. Simply put, the Cardinals appear in control.

RICK HUMMEL:
With third baseman Aramis Ramirez returning, the Cubs again have a formidable lineup. They will be involved down to the last week. The gap between the Cardinals and Cubs got big all of a sudden but consider that the Cardinals were playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati while the Cubs were playing at Colorado and were home to Philadelphia. The Cardinals are 1-8 themselves against those two teams.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Yes, though it’s tempting. The Cardinals are playing well enough to pull away. The Cubs have spent most of the season straggling behind in the division race, struggling with injuries and playing below their potential. They have shown in the past that they can go where Aramis Ramirez takes them, and if he comes back, healthy and productive, it will be a needed jolt for the Cubs. It could be good enough to get them back on track and with a dash or two of healthy pitching they could go on a run. But Ramirez is a question mark. The Cardinals know the pitfalls of a third baseman coming back from a shoulder injury all too well.

GERRY FRALEY:
The Cubs are finished, as is the National League Central race. The Cubs have been a mis-matched team all season. Even if they were playing well, the Cubs would have difficulty catching the first-place Cardinals. The teams have only three games remaining, at Busch Stadium on Sept. 18-20. The Cubs also face a brutal schedule that includes two more trips to California and 50 games in a 52-day stretch through Sept. 27.
The Cubs are done.

JEFF GORDON:
Since Ramirez’s shoulder troubles aren’t likely to disappear this season, the Cubs are headed in the wrong direction. They lack a reliable closer. The Milton Bradley Experiment still looks like a failure. With the ownership of the franchise in limbo, the team hasn’t been able to make major roster upgrades. Manager Lou Piniella seems exasperated by the group and its collective bad luck. If the Cubs don’t snap out of their funk immediately, the Cards playing a favorable schedule, could quickly build a substantial lead. So I don’t think it is too soon to dismiss the Small Bears.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Kyle Lohse pitches tonight against the Reds and Todd Wellemeyer on Tuesday. Neither has had the same numbers as last season. Which pitcher’s return to form is more important for the Cardinals?

JOE STRAUSS:
Either would be nice. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are arguably right there with the Giants’ Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as the NL’s most productive 1-2. Joel Pineiro enjoys a Top 15 ERA without the deserved W-L. The need for a fifth starter only eight times the remainder of the season would suggest it’s more important that Lohse find his bearings. TLR suggested Wednesday in New York that Lohse is improving physically but is not 100 percent since his 39-day stay on the disabled list due to a forearm strain. Wellemeyer appears to be on probation and must find something positive from Tuesday’s start. Is it a problem? Sure. However, the Chicago Cubs currently miss Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly from their rotation. The Cardinals could get by a with a 3-man turn if they reach the Division Series and could squeeze 6 starts from three arms in a 7-game NLCS. Talk show angst aside, many would take the Cardinals’ problems right now.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Lohse. The 5th starter won’t get as many turns as the 4th starter the rest of the way. It’s important for the Cardinals to get Lohse back in 2008 form, because if he does they can line up a row of four quality starters. And few teams come close to that. Nudging this ahead into the future, if the Cardinals make the playoffs the fourth starter will get some assignments. Another reason why Lohse must get rolling.

RICK HUMMEL:
Lohse’s performance is more important because that spot in the rotation will get two or three more starts then Wellemeyer’s. And Wellemeyer could go to the bullpen, which Lohse really hasn’t done on any regular basis.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Kyle Lohse. Hands down. The Cardinals plan to limit the need for a fifth starter as much as possible, and that immediately reduces the impact Todd Wellemeyer could have on the remainder of the season. Lohse will start every five days and must provide the kind of quality starts that could determine whether a series is won, split or swept. Lohse’s ability to reconnect with his 2008 self has gained increased importance with Joel Pineiro’s road-trip troubles. Lohse has been billed as the team’s No. 3 starter, and the Cardinals are going to need him to pitch up to his billing to stay ahead and pull away from the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON:
Lohse is more important. This team needs four strong starting pitchers to have a real shot in postseason play. This team needs to get Lohse back to where he was last season — when he was the No. 1 starter for much of the campaign. A year ago, he could win some tough match-ups. Based on that, he should be the No. 3 starter behind Carpenter and Wainwright this season.

The fifth starter is the fifth starter. The Cards are 5-0 when Boggs pitches, so, despite La Russa’s protestations, the team could always revisit that in a pinch. Getting Lohse back to normal has to be the bigger priority. Come playoff time, the fifth starter might not even make the active 25-man roster for any of the series.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have started the season 7-3 against Pittsburgh, Houston and Arizona. It’s always better to win than to lose. However, what happens when they arrive in Chicago today for a four-game set against their first real major-league opponent?

JOE STRAUSS
Wow, we’re already trivializing playing .700 ball over the opening 10 games. Wonder if that’s the attitude in Chicago, Atlanta, Florida or Southern California, where other NL teams have gotten off to solid starts?

This weekend’s intrigue will surround P.J. Walters’ Friday start and a Carp-less rotation’s ability to consume innings. The right side of this bullpen has yet to fully take shape. Now Mitchell Boggs and Chris Perez are inserted with roles fluctuating almost daily. The more the pen gets stretched out, the more its frailties are exposed.

We now get to see how the Cardinals’ rotation matches up against the Cubs. Adam Wainwright’s start this afternoon is pivotal, not only from a win-loss angle, but also from protecting the pen. If he fails to make six innings for a third consecutive start, this weekend could get ugly. If Wainwright is Wainwright, the Cardinals will then take their chances behind Lohse Saturday and Wellemeyer Sunday on extra rest. The Cardinals can claim victory with a split.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s not so much these four games that will have that much definition for the Cardinals as it the 10-game stretch they have against Chicago (seven) and New York, which I consider to be the best teams in the National League. A showing of 5-5 or better for the Cardinals in those 10 games would generate even more enthusiasm. If they go 2-8 or 3-7, then there’s work to be done.

BRYAN BURWELL
The simple answer is, that’s why they play the game. Let’s find out quickly where the Cards stack up with Chicago. The quicker we see how wide or narrow the gap is between the Cubbies and Cards, the sooner GM John Mozeliak can see if he has properly constructed a team that can go head to head with the division favorite.

JEFF GORDON
The Cards caught Houston and Arizona at the right time for sure. But their hitting is real and they still have four starting pitchers throwing well, despite Chris Carpenter’s loss. This team is still a work in progress, due to the bullpen turmoil and lineup shuffling, but you can see the potential. We’re learn a lot more about the Cards — good or bad — when they face a powerful offensive team in hostile conditions. They have the firepower to win a couple of games while they are still sorting things out.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cardinals have only one favorable matchup in the four-game series: Adam Wainwright against Sean Marshall, who has pitched only one inning with the Cubs this season, in today’s opener.

Rookie P.J. Walters will step into the rotation on Friday against Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. He was 1-2 with a 12.75 ERA against the Cardinals last season, but this is still a favorable matchup for the Cubs. The Cubs also have an advantage with Ted Lilly against Todd Wellemeyer on Sunday night.

That makes Saturday the swing game of the series. The Cardinals will start Kyle Lohse against Ryan Dempster. Lohse was 0-1 with a 6.38 ERA against the Cubs last season, but he has had two good starts this season. Dempster, the magician, is 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA for his last 20 starts at Wrigley Field.

If the Cardinals win on Saturday, they can leave Chicago with a split. If the Cubs win on Saturday, they should win the series.