THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming good health, how close do you think Ryan Ludwick will come to matching last year’s productivity, which included 37 HRs, 113 RBIs and a .299 average?

DERRICK GOOLD
Ryan Ludwick can have a better season in 2009 and not come near the numbers or the accolades of his breakout year in 2008. That said, the number he’ll come closest to duplicating — and likely surpassing — is that RBI total. More games and more opportunities coupled with a more prominent spot in the middle of the Cardinals’ order will give him a ample chance to repeat as a 100-RBI outfielder, even with a drop in homers and average.

RICK HUMMEL
If Ludwick hits 25 homers and drives in 90 it still will be a good year. He probably isn’t a .300 hitter. Put him down for .275.

JEFF GORDON
Ryan is a grinder. He kept making adjustments last season. He will punish bad pitching and get lots of breaks against tough righties. So I see him hitting .280 with 30 homers and 95 RBI. La Russa will want to spread it around to keep any one of these guys from getting exposed.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
His history suggests that his batting average may come down a bit. Ludwick has a .270 career average in the big leagues and he was a .273 hitter in 2,780 at-bats in the minors, so something around .270-.280 would be logical for ’09.

I don’t expect his home run total to slip much, if at all. Ludwick has never hit fewer than 24 home runs in any pro season during which he’s picked up at least 400 at-bats and he’s hit a home run every 18.1 at-bats in the Major Leagues. It’s fair to assume he’ll get more at-bats in ’09 than he did in ’08 because he really didn’t cement himself as an “everyday player” right away last year. He enters this season with that distinction and should get 40-50 more at-bats as a result.

I think he’s a little better than his “career pace” indicates, so I think it’s safe to count on Ludwick for 35 bombs. His RBI total will depend on where he hits in the lineup. If he’s hitting 2nd a lot his RBI total will dip but if he spends the year hitting 4th or 5th I think he’ll top 100 RBI.

My projections: .275, 35 HR, 110 RBI, .350 OBP, .550 SLG, .900 OPS

TOM ACKERMAN (Sports anchor of “Total Information A.M.” on KMOX)
Ludwick is capable of putting up similar numbers, but I think it’s asking a lot. Never underestimate the value of scouting reports. Teams have compiled enough video to know his hot and cold zones. Ludwick should have ample protection in the lineup and plenty of RBI chances, so he’ll be close to those All-Star stats.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

BUT I’M A-ROD: Filip Bondy of the New York Daily News has a hilarious column on Alex Rodriguez showing up today for his hip surgery in Arizona. In Bondy’s world, A-Rod would be treated just the same as the rest of us in today’s American health care system. Here’s a quick sampling of his column:

A-Rod: I’m here for my surgery.

(No answer.)

A-Rod: I’m here for my surgery, with Dr. Philippon.

Clerk: Just a minute. (into telephone) Peggy, I have someone here. I’ll have to call you back.

A-Rod: I’m A-Rod.

Clerk: Is this your first time here, Mr. Rod? Fill out these seven forms.”

If you want a good mid-afternoon chuckle, you should check out his column.

L.T. SHOULD GO TO BIG EASY: The San Diego Chargers and five-time, Pro-Bowl running back LaDainian Tomlinson continue to haggle over terms that would keep Tomlinson with the team this season. Tomlinson, who has three years remaining on an eight-year contract he signed in 2004, is being asked to take a pay cut to remain with the team after suffering through an injury-plagued season in 2008 when he had a career low 292 rushing attempts and 1,110 yards. The Chargers apparently feel comfortable asking L.T. to take the pay cut after putting a franchise tag on running back Darren Sproles, which guarantees Sproles will be paid at least the average of the games top five running backs.

San Diego is the only home Tomlinson has ever known, but if I had produced the way he has for the Chargers the past eight years and had other teams pursuing me (reportedly the New Orleans Saints), I’d go ahead and kick the dust of San Diego off my heels and head south. Furthermore, I’d feel totally disrespected by the team franchising a scatback like Sproles while asking L.T. to take a cut. Here’s hoping L.T. decides to join a backfield with Drew Brees and continues to light up the league for another couple years. That would be poetic justice, as it was the Chargers that sent Brees packing a few years back in a similar scenario — and we’ve all seen Brees’ aerial attack for the Saints. Imagine if he had L.T. in that backfield to help him out.

THINGS TO PONDER

RETURN TO THE ROAD: Former NBA star Charles Barkley has been released from jail after serving his three-day sentence on a drunken-driving conviction. Everyone be careful out there.

TRENT EDWARDS IS T.O.’S NEXT VICTIM: The Buffalo Bills have just mortgaged their future. They’ve taken on a 35-year-old wide receiver by the name of Terrell Owens, formerly known as one of the best WRs in the game and currently known as the guy who has served as a divisive force in three different NFL locker rooms. I’m sure the lure of T.O. is hard to pass up, but the Bills have just washed away the future of young QB Trent Edwards. Owens will devour Edwards, who will be entering just his third NFL season in 2009. Owens has thrown his previous three QBs under the bus, including Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo. And those are three pretty high-profile QBs. How is a young guy like Trent Edwards going to handle T.O. in his face demanding the ball? And what about the chemistry Edwards already has with the team’s No. 1 WR Lee Evans? This has disaster written all over it, and not just for the Buffalo Bills. Specifically, it likely will come at the expense of destroying the psyche and ego of a pretty good young QB in Edwards. I’m really surprised conservative coach Dick Jauron signed off on this one.

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STAT OF THE DAY

4 DEGREES OF SEPARATION — I found this cool tool called the “Oracle” on baseball-reference.com that allows you to link any two major league players by a shortest possible list of teammates. By just punching in their names, I was able to connect Stan Musial to Albert Pujols in just four degrees of separation. Here they are:

1. Stan Musial played with Dick Schofield for the 1953 St. Louis Cardinals
2. Dick Schofield played with Jerry Reuss for the 1971 St. Louis Cardinals
3. Jerry Reuss played with Bobby Bonilla for the 1990 Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Bobby Bonilla played with Albert Pujols for the 2001 St. Louis Cardinals

If you wanna have a little fun with some of your favorite players of the past and present, check out this site.