THE WATERCOOLER:
The Cubs have lost five in a row but could get Aramis Ramirez back today and Ted Lilly on Monday. (No word yet on Carlos Zambrano.) Is it too early to count the Cubs out in the NL Central?

BRYAN BURWELL:
History shows us that the Cards don’t surrender leads this large this late. Now, combine that with the nightmarish cruel history of the Cubs and all the injuries and instability going on in Wrigleyville, and there is no other answer than “Turn out the lights, the party’s over.”

JOE STRAUSS:
The math still works for the Cubs but the direction of their season makes it hard to believe they will win a third consecutive NL Central title. Lilly and Zambrano are huge variables; however, Ramirez can transform the Cubs from a mediocre to a dangerous offense. His shoulder problems are more persistent than a 15-day stay on the disabled list. The Cubs remain inept on the road and against solid competition. Barring a sweep of the Cardinals during their three-game set at Busch Sept. 18-20, this just doesn’t seem to be the Cubs’ year. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have the look of a dangerous team: relatively healthy with three consistent starters and a deep lineup. Simply put, the Cardinals appear in control.

RICK HUMMEL:
With third baseman Aramis Ramirez returning, the Cubs again have a formidable lineup. They will be involved down to the last week. The gap between the Cardinals and Cubs got big all of a sudden but consider that the Cardinals were playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati while the Cubs were playing at Colorado and were home to Philadelphia. The Cardinals are 1-8 themselves against those two teams.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Yes, though it’s tempting. The Cardinals are playing well enough to pull away. The Cubs have spent most of the season straggling behind in the division race, struggling with injuries and playing below their potential. They have shown in the past that they can go where Aramis Ramirez takes them, and if he comes back, healthy and productive, it will be a needed jolt for the Cubs. It could be good enough to get them back on track and with a dash or two of healthy pitching they could go on a run. But Ramirez is a question mark. The Cardinals know the pitfalls of a third baseman coming back from a shoulder injury all too well.

GERRY FRALEY:
The Cubs are finished, as is the National League Central race. The Cubs have been a mis-matched team all season. Even if they were playing well, the Cubs would have difficulty catching the first-place Cardinals. The teams have only three games remaining, at Busch Stadium on Sept. 18-20. The Cubs also face a brutal schedule that includes two more trips to California and 50 games in a 52-day stretch through Sept. 27.
The Cubs are done.

JEFF GORDON:
Since Ramirez’s shoulder troubles aren’t likely to disappear this season, the Cubs are headed in the wrong direction. They lack a reliable closer. The Milton Bradley Experiment still looks like a failure. With the ownership of the franchise in limbo, the team hasn’t been able to make major roster upgrades. Manager Lou Piniella seems exasperated by the group and its collective bad luck. If the Cubs don’t snap out of their funk immediately, the Cards playing a favorable schedule, could quickly build a substantial lead. So I don’t think it is too soon to dismiss the Small Bears.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Even with all the offensive firepower the Cardinals have added recently, which team do you see as the biggest threat to St. Louis for the NL Central crown and why?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cubs are the only real threat. They were supposed to be the best team in the division and they still well may be the best, IF lefthander Ted Lilly, their most effective pitcher this season, doesn’t miss too much time with knee and shoulder miseries.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs. There is a reason why the Cubs have one of the highest payrolls in the majors — they have a lot of talent and they, arguably, have the best lineup and most imposing rotation … when … healthy. And that’s the key. The Cubs have been hanging around, hanging around, hanging around and hanging around and the longer they hang around the more time they have to get their Wrigley together, ditch the chaos and injuries from earlier this season and play like they’re capable. Their Central foes had their chance to pull away from the Cubs. And they didn’t.

JEFF GORDON
Until Roy Oswalt went down, I liked the Astros. That team has been on a prolonged upturn. The ’Stros can really beat up opponents in its bandbox stadium. But they have to have their ace. If Oswalt misses significant time with his back strain, that makes the Cubs the biggest threat — even without Ted Lilly. Neither team seems likely to make a major move at the trade deadline, though, so both teams could lose some steam.

GERRY FRALEY
The Chicago Cubs have the best talent in the NL Central. The most telling sign of that is the Cubs have not been buried despite nearly four months of slipshod play. The Cubs win despite themselves because they can out-talent most teams.

The Central will be a two-month drag race between the Cardinals and the Cubs. How soon ailing lefthander Ted Lilly returns to the Cubs’ rotation will be a significant factor. It is possible the rivalry will carry over into October. The clubs could push each other so hard that both will get into the playoffs, with the runnerup as the wild-card entrant.

LUKE THOMPSON
Even without their recent hot streak, the Cubs would seem to be the team with the best chance to challenge the Cardinals in the final two months. Lou Piniella’s team was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and now Aramis Ramirez is back, as is Milton Bradley, who is finally starting to hit. Of course, injury issues continue to cause problems, most notably with All-Star Ted Lilly. But the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central on paper, and that is probably still true even with the Cardinals’ new additions. It’s quite possible their one remaining series on September 18-20 in St. Louis could have large title implications.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cubs. They’ve had key players underperforming all season long, they’ve had injuries and a half dozen on-field temper tantrums that have almost cost them a Gatorade machine. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong — at least until recently — and yet they’re right there in the race.

The Cards have had plenty of bad breaks themselves, make no mistake about that. They and the Cubs are actually quite similar when you think about it. Neither team has played as well as it can play and now the Cardinals have some significant new pieces to play with. I also say the Cubs are the biggest threat to the Cards because I don’t think the Astros or the Brewers are all that hot. They’ll fade while the Cards and Cubs continue to sprint toward the finish.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: NL Central division rival Chicago arrives today for a three-game series, followed by a three-game set against cross-state rival Kansas City. In addition to those two important series, the Cards are anticipating the return Wednesday of Chris Carpenter and Rick Ankiel, which in turn will force some roster moves. It’s shaping up to be an important week. All that said, what do you think will be the most important development for the Cardinals in this homestand?

JOE STRAUSS
As big a deal as Carp’s start is Wednesday, Ankiel’s return on the same day potentially helps the team every day. The offense has fallen into a torpor ever since Ankiel’s loss was compounded by Ryan Ludwick’s hamstring strain. The Cardinals have very few ways to win now short of a solid start. Returning Ankiel to the lineup offers Pujols greater protection, allows TLR to drop Yadier Molina to a more comfortable spot in the order, and at least gives another reason to believe the Cards can score more than once in an inning. Carpenter makes the team better the day and the day after he pitches. During one of his offensive binges, Ankiel can be a daily force. In eight years of covering this club, I can’t recall a more difficult time for a Cardinals lineup than the last week.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s always about Carpenter. It’s not only what he brings with his physical ability, but the emotional lift he would give to a team that is kind of confused right now.

DERRICK GOOLD
The most important long-term development for the Cardinals during this homestand is … and how many times have we written this in the past three seasons? … the healthy return and presence of Chris Carpenter. Film at 11. The damning short-term development for the Cardinals in this homestand is how deep a crippled offense leaves them in the standings. Wins could be scarce against the Cubs and the Royals are improved. The Cardinals entered this homestand in first place in the NL Central. They could leave it with Rick Ankiel in the lineup, Chris Carpenter in the rotation, and a serious drop in the standings.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, the Cards need to win some games and stabilize. Period. How they do that is not important. Just having Carpenter and Ankiel back will give the boost, but a LOT of players are struggling all at once. By winning a few of these games, the Cards could release some of their building frustration and build toward a turnaround. This team can’t get everybody out of their funk at once, but a couple of victories against quality opponents would start the process.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t know if it will be a positive development or not, but what I’m most curious about seeing this week is how Tony La Russa will dish out the playing time at SS and 3B. Joe Strauss’ story (in Tuesday’s Post-Dispatch) about Khalil Greene moving into a reserve role for the time being makes you wonder how it’s all going to play out. Does Tyler Greene emerge as a legit option as the regular shortstop? What about Brendan Ryan? Do we see him more at short, at third or will he be on the pine? Are Brian Barden (.083 in May) and Joe Thurston (.195 in May) going to lose at-bats or will they continue to play regularly?

How things develop at those two positions could determine a lot here in the near future because the other offensive issues will fix themselves, to a degree, once Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick return to the lineup. If you’re not getting much out of 3B and SS, however, you’re looking at a lineup that won’t have a threat in the bottom third. In that scenario you would need Yadier Molina to swing the bat more like he did in April (.333/.402/.500) than what he’s doing in May (.222/.387/.329) — and that’s not a fair expectation. Yadi’s gotten better as a hitter but if you’re counting on consistent run production from him in the middle third of the order things are going to continue to be tough on offense.

A little something on offense from SS and 3B would certainly go a long way.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have started the season 7-3 against Pittsburgh, Houston and Arizona. It’s always better to win than to lose. However, what happens when they arrive in Chicago today for a four-game set against their first real major-league opponent?

JOE STRAUSS
Wow, we’re already trivializing playing .700 ball over the opening 10 games. Wonder if that’s the attitude in Chicago, Atlanta, Florida or Southern California, where other NL teams have gotten off to solid starts?

This weekend’s intrigue will surround P.J. Walters’ Friday start and a Carp-less rotation’s ability to consume innings. The right side of this bullpen has yet to fully take shape. Now Mitchell Boggs and Chris Perez are inserted with roles fluctuating almost daily. The more the pen gets stretched out, the more its frailties are exposed.

We now get to see how the Cardinals’ rotation matches up against the Cubs. Adam Wainwright’s start this afternoon is pivotal, not only from a win-loss angle, but also from protecting the pen. If he fails to make six innings for a third consecutive start, this weekend could get ugly. If Wainwright is Wainwright, the Cardinals will then take their chances behind Lohse Saturday and Wellemeyer Sunday on extra rest. The Cardinals can claim victory with a split.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s not so much these four games that will have that much definition for the Cardinals as it the 10-game stretch they have against Chicago (seven) and New York, which I consider to be the best teams in the National League. A showing of 5-5 or better for the Cardinals in those 10 games would generate even more enthusiasm. If they go 2-8 or 3-7, then there’s work to be done.

BRYAN BURWELL
The simple answer is, that’s why they play the game. Let’s find out quickly where the Cards stack up with Chicago. The quicker we see how wide or narrow the gap is between the Cubbies and Cards, the sooner GM John Mozeliak can see if he has properly constructed a team that can go head to head with the division favorite.

JEFF GORDON
The Cards caught Houston and Arizona at the right time for sure. But their hitting is real and they still have four starting pitchers throwing well, despite Chris Carpenter’s loss. This team is still a work in progress, due to the bullpen turmoil and lineup shuffling, but you can see the potential. We’re learn a lot more about the Cards — good or bad — when they face a powerful offensive team in hostile conditions. They have the firepower to win a couple of games while they are still sorting things out.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cardinals have only one favorable matchup in the four-game series: Adam Wainwright against Sean Marshall, who has pitched only one inning with the Cubs this season, in today’s opener.

Rookie P.J. Walters will step into the rotation on Friday against Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano. He was 1-2 with a 12.75 ERA against the Cardinals last season, but this is still a favorable matchup for the Cubs. The Cubs also have an advantage with Ted Lilly against Todd Wellemeyer on Sunday night.

That makes Saturday the swing game of the series. The Cardinals will start Kyle Lohse against Ryan Dempster. Lohse was 0-1 with a 6.38 ERA against the Cubs last season, but he has had two good starts this season. Dempster, the magician, is 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA for his last 20 starts at Wrigley Field.

If the Cardinals win on Saturday, they can leave Chicago with a split. If the Cubs win on Saturday, they should win the series.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The St. Louis Blues’ recent success has put them in position to make a run at a playoff spot. It also has muddied the trade deadline waters. What do you think the Blues should do at the trade deadline: Be buyers, sellers or stand pat with the team that got them to this point? Is it worth trading off any of the youngsters for a veteran presence?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
The Blues should stand pat. I was one who said that this team would not make the playoffs, but some way, somehow they’ve managed to put themselves in a good position. The bottom line is they can’t fool with the chemistry they’ve created. Regarding the question should the Blues trade a young player for veteran help, the answer is no. Even if the team should make the playoffs it is not a Stanley Cup contender. The Blues should continue following the same plan they’ve had all along.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Stay the course. Do not trade good young players or top prospects for short-term gain. The only way it would make sense to mortgage some of the future is if the Blues honestly believed they had a chance to win the Stanley Cup this season. And they don’t. They are playing very good hockey with what they have. There is no reason to bail out and become a seller. And there is no reason to mess with a bright future by making an impulsive, short-sighted move. Stay the course.

JEFF GORDON
The Blues should stand pat unless another team spits up a No. 1 pick to rent Keith Tkachuk. That would be too good to pass up. Otherwise, the team should skate with what it has. It is really playing well. I wouldn’t overpay hoping to make it better, though, because everything is overpriced at the deadline. The Blues have made that mistake before — and that is one reason why this franchise has never built a Cup winner.

DAN O’NEILL
Realistically, I don’t think the Blues are in a position to make a significant trade. What they need most right now is scoring help, and it’s hard to imagine they have the chips to get a player who would have much impact. Trading a scoring threat (Keith Tkachuk) for a scoring threat doesn’t make much sense, unless it is a player you can build with for the future.

That said, if there are no plans to resign Tkachuk, it would be crazy not to explore moving him, and in that regard it may behoove the team to make a deal. You hate to mess with the chemistry right now, and everyone hopes the team can make the playoffs. But realistically, is it going anywhere in the playoffs? Unlikely. So if you have a chance to help yourself by moving Tkachuk, it would make sense to do so. There is also the possibility they will find a team (Buffalo?) willing to deal for a veteran goaltender (Manny Legace). The former Blues starter has a shutout and has allowed 17 goals in eight games at Peoria.

In the big picture, the Blues should stick to their guns and keep their young players. I would hate to see them deal one of their promising newcomers (David Perron) for the purposes of making the playoffs. The goal should be to win in the playoffs, not make them.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Even if the Blues make the playoffs, no one should expect them to go past the first round. For the Blues, the victory will be getting into the postseason. If you can get a good price for a veteran like Tkachuk, you make that deal. But other than that, I think the core group of Blues has to stay intact. I don’t think this team is one player away from being significantly better. (Well, maybe if that one player was Crosby or Ovechkin, but not Pronger.) It’s not as if John Davidson is fine-tuning his roster for the stretch drive. Teams historically overpay at the trade deadline. The Blues are not in a position to overpay. The ideal kind of trade for the Blues was the one earlier this season where they got Steen and Colaiacovo for Stempniak, getting two contributors for the price of one. It’s hard to make those at the deadline. So at this point, “Standing Pat Except for Tkachuk” is probably the best course of action.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I would be aggressively looking to buy but also be more than happy to stand pat if the price of doing business isn’t agreeable. There is no need for a desperation move. If I could pull something off that made a significant difference I would do it. It’s almost unfair to even mention Chris Pronger’s name but since it’s already out there in the rumor mill I’ll go ahead and say that if I could get a player of that caliber I’d pull the trigger. I just wouldn’t move Backes, Berglund, Oshie, Johnson, Polak or any of the established forwards on the NHL roster to get it done.

The Blues have more than enough prospects for the future and, let’s be honest, you can’t possibly count on having 15-20 young, homegrown players on your team in the next year or two. There are two reasons professional sports franchises need a strong developmental system: to create cheap talent that you can add to your roster periodically and to have the ability to acquire established impact players via trade.

You never say “never” when it comes to the possibility of selling off a player or two, it just depends on what is offered. I would have to really “win” the trade to move anyone of significance off this team right now. Short of reaching the playoffs, which is the primary objective, this team needs a strong finish to give them a jumping off point for 2009-2010.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

PEAVY TALK STILL SWIRLS AROUND CUBS: For those who thought a Jake Peavy-to-the-Cubs deal was dead, it appears there still might be some life to it. The Chicago Tribune is reporting today that there are still plenty of reasons to believe a deal could be consumated before the start of the season. Peavy, 27, leads all National League pitchers with 1,256 strikeouts since his big-league debut in 2002. If the Cubs are able to somehow land Peavy, it would give the North Siders a starting rotation of five pitchers that would be considered No. 1-type pitchers for many clubs — not a Joel Pineiro to be found. Stay tuned.

NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT: Many Cardinal fans have questioned the club’s logic in not re-signing free agent pitcher Braden Looper. Perhaps the news that Looper suffered an oblique-strain after feeling a twinge while sneezing last week alters that perspective. As of now, the Brew Crew is unsure whether or not Looper will be available at season’s start. Can you imagine the gnashing of teeth in Cardinal Nation if fans here were not only holding their breath on Chris Carpenter’s return, but also had to worry about every time Looper sneezed? Ach-choo. Bless you.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

JUST HAVING SOME FUN: The folks at ESPN.com are having a little fun with NFL defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth’s new $100 million free agency contract. You just punch in your annual salary and they tell you how long it takes Haynewsorth to earn your wages. Check it out, it’s kind of fun and gives you some perspective on just what kind of money pro athletes make.

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STAT OF THE DAY

7,075 — Most offensive yards gained in an NFL season. The feat was accomplished by the 2000 St. Louis Rams. The 1984 Miami Dolphins are second with 6,936 yards and the 1998 San Francisco 49ers are third with 6,800 yards. (Source: NFL Fact and Record Book)

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: After laying a third-period egg in a very important game at home against Vancouver Tuesday night, what do you think is the most important thing fans should watch for in how the Blues respond tonight at Nashville?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
Keep an eye on the Blues’ defensive play. For the most part, the forwards played well in Tuesday’s 6-4 loss to Vancouver. Andy McDonald will take a few weeks to round into form, but he looked good on a line with T.J. Oshie and Patrik Berglund. The Blues were two for three on the power play, scoring those two goals in only 1:34 of power-play time. Chris Mason wasn’t great, but he made some nice saves. But the Blues’ defense, which has played well the last couple of weeks, let them down with five giveaways. Mason made 47 saves in a 1-0 shutout win over Nashville back in November, but he won’t do that again tonight if the Blues play defensively like they did Tuesday. Look for Mike Weaver to be back in the lineup, replacing Steve Wagner.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Hockey is a pretty simple game. Tenacity matters in this sport, and the Blues didn’t have much of it Tuesday after taking that 2-0 lead on Vancouver. They backed off. This is a team that must have an underdog’s mindset. They have to bring the effort and the physical play for 60 minutes. That didn’t happen against Vancouver. The Blues went into a cruise-control mode. So they have to come out flying tonight, and take the play to Nashville. I didn’t think Chris Mason was sharp against the Canucks. Granted, he was the victim of some fluke stuff, but he’s the clear No. 1 goaltender now, and the pressure is on him to play consistently well. He’ll have to be on top of his game tonight.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Plain and simple, they need to win, no matter how it looks. They can’t afford a losing streak at this time of the season. They may be close points-wise, but it’s going to be tough to climb over all those teams since everyone is playing each other.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, Team 1380)
The most disappointing thing to me in regards to Tuesday’s loss was how nonchalant the Blues performed in the third period. At this time of year you can’t afford to allow the opposition to dictate the pace of the game, especially in the third period. The Blues put themselves in bad situations by taking irresponsible penalties and failing to do the little things that matter when you’re trying to protect a lead late in the game.

The Blues will try to give a smarter effort tonight in Nashville. It starts in their own end with goaltender Chris Mason, who failed to come up with the big save when the club needed it in the worst way against the Canucks. It’s crucial the Blues get a lead early to prevent the team from chasing the game.

REED LOW (Former Blue and co-host of “The Low Down” on KFNS)
They need to come out with a good start. Also they need to play with desperation … that’s what made them successful over their last 10 games. The other night the team was watching instead of forcing the play. Goaltending has to be better — they worked hard to get the lead back after a power play goal the other night and you need your goalie to make it happen after something like that. Lastly, they need to play four lines and keep rolling the bench and getting everyone in the game. After a couple periods of that you will wear the other team down because a home team will usually try to get their best players out for a few extra shifts. Stay patient with the game plan and keep it simple.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

THE WORLD OF PETE ROSE: Of all the people I would have expected to hear speak up about Alex Rodriguez and steroids, perhaps Pete Rose would’ve been one of the last. I know steroids and gambling are two different things, but the whole pot-kettle thing bothers me. Both have admitted to breaking the rules. Period.

But Rose, the game’s all-time hits leader with 4,256, had a few things to say to Dayton Daily News’ legendary baseball writer Hal McCoy. Take this for example: “I would have got 5,000 hits if I took steroids.”

Really, Pete? Almost 750 more hits because you were juicing? Wanna bet on it?

But I will give Rose credit for his thoughts on when A-Rod said he juiced because of all the pressure he was under due to his huge contract. Here’s what Rose told McCoy: “Pressure? A lot of us are understanding in these times that pressure is signing a $250 contract, not $250 million.”

That, I couldn’t have said better myself.

ALL ABOARD: According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the Brewers are teaming up with Amtrak to try to make Wrigley Field in Chicago a home away from home — at least for one game. The report states that the first 100 Brewers fans who buy tickets to the Brewers-Cubs Sept. 17 game will get a free, round-trip ride to Chicago on Amtrak. The name of the promotion: Miller Park South. While they are only giving away 100 free train rides, all those fans and 1,500 others who attend the game will be given t-shirts that say, “Miller Park South.”

I say when you send 1,600 Brewers fans into the dregs of the drunken Friendly Confines claiming the Cubs’ home field as their own, the t-shirts might as well say, “Go ahead, kick my #$#.”

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

THIRD JERSEY UNDER SCRUTINY: It was news to this editor to find out this morning that ESPN had done a story about St. Louis Post-Dispatch multimedia journalist Darryl Swint and how renderings for a new Blues third jersey that Swint designed and delivered to the Blues back in 2003 have many similarities to the third jerseys the Blues introduced this season. I offer no opinion or bias on the merits of anyone’s claims in the story, but thought fans might like to see the story and the side-by-side shots. You can form your own opinions.

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HOME RUN HISTORY

As Albert Pujols prepares to begin his ninth season in the major leagues with the St. Louis Cardinals, here’s a look at the players who hit the most home runs through their first 8 seasons, along with how many they hit:

1. Ralph Kiner — 329
2 Albert Pujols — 319
3. Eddie Mathews — 299
4. Adam Dunn — 278
5. Ernie Banks — 269
6. Ted Williams — 265
7. Frank Robinson — 262
8. Frank Thomas — 257
9. Hank Aaron — 253
10. Darryl Strawberry — 252
11 Todd Helton — 251
12. Willie Mays — 250
13. Mickey Mantle — 249
14. Rocky Colavito — 246
15. Joe DiMaggio — 244
16. Albert Belle — 242
17. Alex Rodriguez — 241
18. Mike Piazza — 240
19. Roger Maris — 240
20. Ken Griffey — 238

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Now that St. Louis Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo has his coaching staff in place, looking over all the hires what kind of personality do you expect the Rams to have in coming years?

JIM THOMAS
There’s no doubt that teams reflect the personality of their head coach. In Steve Spagnuolo, the Rams have an intense, high-energy, driven personality. As for the rest of the staff, it’s way too early to tell. As is the case with a bunch of new players, when you have 20 new coaches assembled together for the first time, it takes a while to jell.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
In some respects, the assistants are irrelevant. Don’t get me wrong; they can have a lot of impact. Just look at what offensive coordinator Mike Martz did for the 1999 Rams, and what defensive coordinator Lovie Smith did for the 2001 Rams. But if the head coach is a dud, or overwhelmed, he can have the greatest assistants in the NFL and it won’t matter much. Not only do head coaches lead players, but they lead the other coaches, too. They set the example, the tone, the direction. They put a philosophy in place and the assistants coach accordingly. On the surface it appears that Spagnuolo has done a fine job in assembling his first staff; in particular I hear wonderful things about offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. And that’s important, because I fully expect Spagnuolo to have a major hand in running his own defense. But the best thing Spagnuolo can do is emerge as a strong leader who gives this team — and his coaches — a winning personality.

BRYAN BURWELL
While offensively Spags says he won’t put labels on it, Marc Bulger tells me it clearly is the West Coast offense. It’s the same offense he ran during the 2007 pro bowl working with Pat Shurmur and the Eagles staff. Defensively, it will be an aggressive defense with bigger players and, ultimately, it will be a pressure-the-quarterback reliant attack that Spags made so successful in New York.

JEFF GORDON
The head coach is all business, so long-suffering Rams fans can only hope the team — and the whole organization — takes the same persona. Spagnuolo is not theatrical, like a Jon Gruden. He is not a lump, either, like Scott Linehan. Spagnuolo looks like he will keep things simple and work very hard. As this point, with the Rams going back to square one, that is the approach everybody at Rams Park should take.

KATHLEEN NELSON
Given the Rams’ stated chain of command, the team personality will reflect the personality of Spagnuolo and Billy Devaney more than the assistants. Those two have been front and center and will stay that way. The personalities of assistants tend to mesh, not clash, with the head coach. Which just reinforces that the team is a reflection of Devaney and Spagnuolo, as opposed to assistant coaches.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I expect a more authoritative style of leadership from Spagnuolo. Not authoritarian, but authoritative. Scott Linehan was plenty smart but he didn’t “command the room” with regard to his players and fellow coaches. Spagnoulo will.

Spags knows he’s good at what he does and you could see his personality come through with the way the Giants played defense. The Rams will react the same way. They may not win right away - heck they may not win at all under Spagnuolo, you just never know - but fans can expect a noticeable change beginning with Game 1 of the preseason.

A team that spent the last few years doubting itself will ultimately tranform itself into an assertive team brimming with confidence. Whether wins come along with that remains to be seen.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

FAVRE RETIRES … AGAIN: Brett Favre has told the New York Jets he plans to retire. No word yet on when we’ll get the teary press conference, when ESPN will start giving us reports on Brett maybe wanting to play again, or what team’s training camp he’ll turn into a circus this summer when he says he’s got one more year left in him.

What I do know is that Favre would have gotten a much better sendoff had he ended it in Green Bay. New York, not so much. Today’s Daily News headline says it all about how many New Yorkers feel: Favre goes from savior to failure in his one season as ‘Broadway Brett.’

Ouch. In talking about Favre’s coming-out-of-retirement season with the Jets, Gary Myers of the Daily News writes, “The whole thing turned into an embarrassing failure when Favre completely ran out of gas down the stretch and cost the Jets the playoffs and cost Eric Mangini his job.”

Seriously, try to stick to the Wrangler commercials now, Brett. Fight that voice inside your head. Walk away from that bright light.

EMPTY FEELINGS, EMPTY SEATS: As stated in this space yesterday, last night’s Blues game against the Vancouver Canucks was just the start of an incredibly important 10-game stretch through February. Game 1 … zero points. Not a good start.

A 2-0 lead at the first intermission gave me a pep in my step as I headed out to my friendly Bud vendor. The 3-2 lead at the second intermission was promising … but there were all these nagging memories in my head of this team losing so many games in the third period this season. After the Canucks four-goal barrage (one an empty-netter) in the third period, it was just an empty feeling. A great opportunity blown. This Blues team just cannot afford to give up two, 2-goal leads, and the boys apparently need to be downing energy drinks at the second intermission of games. As has been pointed out a lot this season, one can’t fault the team’s effort. But man-oh-man, you’ve got to put games like that away.

Aside from the defeat, the other surprising/disappointing thing about last night’s game was the attendance at the Scotty. Seeing as how this team was on a 6-3-1 run coming into the game and they were battling a Vancouver team that was sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot, I expected a pretty full house. While the announced attendance was a little over 16,000, I can guarantee you there were not that many folks there. Patches of empty seats all over the building … from the lower bowl to the nosebleeds.

I’m not one to judge how anyone else spends their money, especially when we’re all going through these tough economic times, but it really was a bit of a head-scratcher to me. Just as a guy going to the game, it was a letdown for the place not to be rocking on a such a big night. Perhaps if the Boys in Blue can put away a few more of those games in the third period that will change.

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THINGS TO PONDER

SO YOU NEED A CLOSER: After missing out on free-agent closer Brian Fuentes, the Cardinals are saying they are not yet ready to hand over closing duties full-time to either Chris Perez or Jason Motte. Looks like they’ll head into the season with a committee in the ninth inning. The two-time defending NL Central Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, have no such problem. They’ve got two very capable arms vying for the spot. Not only is closer-in-waiting Carlos Marmol ready to assume the position, but the team also signed former Florida closer Kevin Gregg, setting up a spring training competition. Looking at it objectively from all angles — from the starting rotations to the bullpens to the lineups — do you think the Cardinals are really equipped to contend with the Cubs this year?

RAZING ARIZONA: The following headline in The Onion caught my attention today. It’s breaking “news” concerning Arizona’s Super Bowl loss. The headline reads: “Ken Whisenhunt: ‘A Lot Of People Said We Couldn’t Come In Here And Win, And They Were Correct”

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STAT OF THE DAY

8 — That’s the most seasons any player in the NFL has led the league in rushing. The winner? Jim Brown. He did it for Cleveland from 1957-61 and 1963-65. That’s twice as many seasons leading the league as any other RB all-time. The runners-up, all with four seasons leading the league:

Steve Van Buren, Philadelphia, 1945, 1947-49
O.J. Simpson, Buffalo, 1972-73, 1975-76
Eric Dickerson, L.A. Rams, 1983-84, 1986; Indianapolis, 1988
Emmitt Smith, Dallas, 1991-93, 1995
Barry Sanders, Detroit, 1990, 1994, 1996-97

SOURCE: NFL Record and Fact Book

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Now that the Arizona Cardinals have made the Super Bowl, we see anything is possible. St. Louis Blues owner Dave Checketts proclaimed a couple years back that he would bring the Stanley Cup to St. Louis. How long do you think it will be before this team is not only playoff-bound, but strong enough to make some noise when they get there?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
The Blues are at least three years away from competing for a Stanley Cup. Now that they’ve got the young talent in house, they need time for it to develop and gain experience. When Erik Johnson, Patrik Berglund, T.J. Oshie and David Perron are ready, then the team can make a move for a top-flight player or two to complement them. The Blues can play with the top clubs in the league now, as theY showed Monday in Boston, but in a seven-game series it would be another story. That day, however, appears to be getting closer.

JEFF GORDON
Given all their injury setbacks, the Blues are at least two years away from making playoff noise. The team must find a cornerstone goaltender; that may or may not be Ben Bishop. We’ll see. The defense ought to be outstanding next season and beyond, but the team will still need to develop more scoring to help Berglund, Perron, Backes and Oshie. Lars Eller may be two years away and Phil McRae could be three years away. Meanwhile, the Blues won’t have the resources to buy a whole lot of help.

DAN O’NEILL
The Blues have a corps of good young players, and more on the way. They have been playing considerably better hockey in the past two weeks. If they could get one of their goaltender’s hot, get a couple of players healthy, I do not think it is beyond the realm of possibility that they could make the playoffs this season, but it’s a long shot. I think with the addition of a couple more pieces, they are more likely to make the playoffs next year. As for “making noise,” you never know once you get in. But it seems like they are at least two years away from a Stanley Cup run.

TOM TIMMERMANN
The Blues probably won’t make the playoffs this year, and they may get in next year, but won’t go far. So we’re looking at the 2010-11 season before the Blues have a chance to make some noise. By that point, some of the team’s players who are kids today will have become experienced players and a good many of the players who are here today will be gone. But I’m not sure if even then this team will be a Stanley Cup team. They’re going to have to pick up a big-time goal-scorer along the way somewhere.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

INTRODUCING YOUR 2009 CUBS: As Cardinal Nation flocked to the Winter Warmup this past weekend, Chicagoans were doing the same at the Cubs Convention. Chicago Tribune writer Steve Rosenbloom took the opportunity to take manager Lou Piniella to task for batting Alfonso Soriano in the leadoff spot, and offered up his own lineup for the ’09 club. He’s got former Cardinal Aaron Miles in the No. 2 hole and has this to say about it: “(He) batted .358 in the two-spot last season; that was in front of Albert Pujols, but .358 is .358, pal.”

Check out the rest of his lineup card. Amusing … but scary.

REALIZING THE DREAM: Sports and politics don’t mix, right? Wrong, if you’re ESPN. They’ve put together a really nice package at ESPN.com recognizing the historic nature of the day with Barack Obama taking his oath of office. They’ve got some well-thought out stories, vignettes from a number of athletes on what the day means to them and a story about how even Tiger Woods (normally not political at all) got into the mix. Plus, the network has a full lineup of programs today ranging from a Jack Johnson documentary to a piece on black quarterbacks in the NFL. You can read all about it and get a full listing of the programs at their Web site.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

WOW … JUST WOW: What an afternoon in Boston yesterday for the Blues. That had to be one of the most amazing final five minutes of a game I’ve ever seen. Oh wait, I didn’t actually see it since it wasn’t televised. I was watching via the CBS live scoreboard. I headed out the door to grab some lunch with five minutes remaining and the Blues leading 2-1. By the time I got into my car and flipped on KMOX to pick up the game, the Blues were trailing 4-2. What??? Then I heard the announcers’ calls on the Perron and Backes goals (do you know how excruciating it was not to be able to see the replays of Backes’ game-tying goal and just having to trust the announcers that the goal was good while it was being reviewed?) Listened to OT while going through a drive-through. Back in the office just in time to see Oshie and Boyes shootout goals … again via CBS scoreboard.

I can’t believe how exciting it was without even being able to witness it. Perhaps I should just drop my Direct TV and do it the old-fashioned way from now on.

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STAT OF THE DAY

7 – Number of points by which Pittsburgh is favored over Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII.

MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

GAUGING THE MARKET: As many in Cardinals National have been screeching about the team’s relative inactivity in the free agent market this offseason, others have started to voice a dissenting viewpoint, pointing out there are still many good free agents out there that may be scooped up later at cheaper prices.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the market for free agents is shaping up in the dissenters’ favor. In a blog today, Olney says: “It is evident that a lot of veteran players are coming to grips with the reality that there isn’t a lot of cash available for the middle class of players this winter. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe fared well, but the dropoff, after that, gets steeper by the day.” He cites former Cardinal David Eckstein as the latest example. Eckstein earned $4.5 million with the Blue Jays last season, but just Thursday signed an $850,000 contract to play for the Padres this season.

This is not a free pass for the Cardinals to sit on their wallets, but perhaps general manager John Mozeliak has a much better read on this than the average fan. Afterall, he is being paid to be a big league GM.

And in case you missed it, Derrick Goold put together a complete lineup of all-stars that are now available on the free agent market. Take a look at his team in the Birdland Blog and convince me there’s not still plenty of options available. With no one clammering to snatch up these guys now, why not wait awhile until the clearance sale begins?

ON THE OTHER HAND: The Chicago Cubs apparently are not subscribing to the wait-and-see approach in free agency. And while the Cards are working on developing homegrown talent, the Cubs seem to be going in the other direction. In fact, the Chicago Sun Times reported today that, “On Opening Day 2009, only shortstop Ryan Theriot and catcher Geovany Soto figure to be true homegrown players in the Cubs’ starting lineup. That’s not a bad thing, either. The Cubs are spending money the way a big-market team should be, sprinkling in a few of their own along the way.”

One of those that won’t be sprinkled in is former super-prospect Felix Pie. The Cubs have loaded up in the outfield and it looks like this once-can’t-miss prospect will be shipped out.

ASK HIM YOURSELF: You can ask Mozeliak about how this team is shaping up and why he’s doing things the way he is next week when we host a live chat with the Cardinals general manager. Check in with him at 1 p.m. next Wednesday at STLtoday.com.

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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Do you think the Cardinals will top 3 million in attendance this summer?

JOE STRAUSS
While the economic angst is very appropriate, I believe the Cardinals will continue to receive strong support. I do think the economic climate makes them more vulnerable to a dramatic loss of walk-up sales should the team tank. Barring a meltdown season, I place the attendance over/under at 3.25 million.

DERRICK GOOLD
Selling 3 million tickets is different than drawing 3 million fans. I imagine the Cardinals will clear 3 million in tickets sales for the 11th time in 12 years, and they probably will inch past their budget-target of 3.2 million, even in this wicked economy. But the turnstile will have a different view. For the first time since the opening of the ballpark all of those tough sells — those Tuesday nights vs. Pittsburgh, for example — will really look the part. Empty seats. Empty boxes. No lines for garlic fries and red licorice. The same volunteers each night for the fifth-inning dance off. While the All-Star Game is a heck of an insurance policy for ticket sales, it won’t put red-clad butts in those red-painted seats when August comes unless the team is worth watching.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll make three million if they start fast. If they’re not contending or interesting in April and early May, it won’t happen.

JEFF GORDON
Despite the terrible economy, I believe the Cards can still draw 3 million if they contend. And I believe they will contend in ’09, despite all the current naysaying. This team may have to do some ticket discounting on the fly, as the Blues have, but the team should get that number. It helps that the Rams have tanked and the Blues are struggling, too. More than ever, this is Cardinal Nation. Fans will quit a number of vices before they get to baseball.

TOM TIMMERMANN
I don’t think so. Even if the team was championship worthy, I think it would be a tough sell this summer. People are going to pull a DeWitt and play it close to the vest with their money. They’ll sit back, pop open a beer and listen to Dan and Al. Or Mike and John. Or read Joe and Derrick and Rick, though hopefully not drinking a beer over the morning paper.

MIKE SMITH
Signs of the times: The Smith family probably will have to dump its annual $5,500 contribution to DeWitt Care for two seats out in left field. And fan grousing seems to be at an unprecedented level for the 29 years I’ve worked in the P-D sports department. Still … if the Cards find a second baseman who at least looks like he wants to be on the field, then put their best lineup out there and ACTUALLY LEAVE IT OUT THERE more than one or two days a week (“Leading off and playing left field, Joe Thurston!”), you’ve got the makings of a season that could attract 3 million fans.

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THINGS TO PONDER

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO: USC coach Pete Carroll got blistered today by L.A. Times columnist Bill Plaschke for how he’s handled the news that QB Mark Sanchez will enter the NFL draft early. Sanchez has already received his bachelor’s degree, and even though he has one year of eligibility remaining, the fact that he is ranked among the 10 best players in this year’s draft made the lure of the NFL just too much. Plaschke says Carroll handled Sanchez’s decision “with all the decorum of a jilted lover.”

Is it about the kid or is it about winning, Pete?

OK, THIS IS ONLY A JOKE: It’s a well-known fact that former NFL quarterback Archie Manning sired the last two Super Bowl winning QBs — Peyton and Eli Manning. But according to the satirical magazine The Onion, Archie may not yet be out of the running for a third consecutive Super Bowl in his family, even though Peyton’s Colts and Eli’s Giants have been eliminated from the playoffs. “Donovan McNabb Is Also My Son,” reads the headline. Check it out.

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NOW THAT’S SAYING SOMETHING

“During my 18 years I came to bat almost 10,000 times. I struck out about 1,700 times and walked maybe 1,800 times. You figure a ballplayer will average about 500 at bats a season. That means I played seven years without ever hitting the ball.”
— Mickey Mantle