THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given the success of rookie Colby Rasmus, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Cardinals will bring back free agent centerfielder Rick Ankiel. What do you think Ankiel’s legacy will be in St. Louis … the wunderkind pitcher who lost it? The feel-good story of coming back with a bang in his first big-league season as an outfielder? The player who struggled to find much consistency at the plate this past year? Or are these things oversimplifications of how Cardinal fans will remember Ankiel?

JOE STRAUSS
I don’t think any of those should be discounted. For much of his career Ankiel was a curiosity, a marvelous talent wrapped within a swirl of suspicion, potential and paranoia. There was also the revelation about his HGH use that MLB and the Cardinals couldn’t wait to explain away. Though regarded as a good teammate, Ankiel never overcame resentment of media that reported on what millions witnessed in the 2000 postseason and beyond. To pass judgment in such a short forum minimizes a talent who endured more than some entire clubhouses have experienced personally and professionally. Ankiel ultimately let his departure from the Cardinals clubhouse speak for him — out the back door without a word.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Easily one of the most overhyped Cardinals in franchise history. Just think of all of the money, time and patience invested in a guy who pitched 242 innings and had 1,044 at-bats at the big-league level since joining the Cardinals in 1999.

DERRICK GOOLD
Simply and dramatically put, Ankiel is the Cardinals’ Hamlet. He was a tortured soul capable of sheer brilliance. A compelling and riveting story that didn’t end well. And, ultimately, a personality most will wish they could have known — or rather, understood — better. Ankiel’s career as a Cardinal is one of the most remarkable reinventions in baseball, but it is also a story of talent unrealized. That is his legacy. Not just the roman-candle pitching talent who burned bright before burning out. Not just the outfielder. Not just the HGH admission, or the playoff wild pitches or even the seven-RBI magic on Sept. 6, 2007. How he’ll be remembered as a Cardinal is all of that, all that he was, but also all he didn’t become.

RICK HUMMEL
You’d like to think that more fans would remember Ankiel’s stunning comeback to the majors as an outfielder or even his impressive rookie season of 2000 before his pitching meltdown. But probably more will remember what happened lately — meaning last season, when Ankiel,was never quite the same after running into the center-field wall, and had a highly mediocre offensive season.

JEFF GORDON
Above all else, fans would remember Rick Ankiel as one of the best athletes they’ve ever seen — and one of the more disappointing performers of all time. He looked like one of the best young lefties of his generation, then he broke down on the mound. His switch to the outfield was somewhat inspirational, but then he never matured as a hitter. If 2009 was his final season in St. Louis, it will be remembered with great exasperation.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
To me Ankiel will always be “The Enigma.” He’s a guy that has more raw, physical talent than almost any player in the game but what goes on between the ears disrupts what the rest of his body can accomplish on the field. That’s true of his first career as a pitcher and of his current career as an outfielder. Ankiel had an elite fastball, a knee-buckling breaking ball and a fluid, easy motion on the hill. As a position player he has very good speed, amazing arm strength and a powerful swing capable of generating 30-35 home runs per year.

In both cases, however, what goes on in his mind has interrupted his performance on the field. It’s no coincidence that he started off well in both “careers” and then tailed off viciously after experiencing some form of failure or hardship. From the time he was called up in 2007 until the All-Star break of 2008, Ankiel hit .276 with 31 HR and 89 RBI in just 479 ABs. Since the ’08 All-Star break he’s hit just .234 with 16 HR and 59 RBI in 478 AB. Prior to the 2000 playoffs Ankiel was 11-8 with a 3.46 ERA and 233 strikeouts in 208 IP. He appeared in only 11 Major League games as a pitcher following the 2000 playoffs, allowing 9 HRs in 35 IP and posting a 6.62 ERA.

I don’t mean any of that as a shot at Ankiel — I don’t think he can control whatever it is that holds him back — but it’s quite obvious that he’s capable of a lot more than he has accomplished. This is not a simple issue as it almost certainly relates in some way to off-the-field issues (his father’s legal problems for example) but there is clearly something that keeps Ankiel from being as great as he is physically capable of being. I know he’s had injuries, but they don’t seem to adequately explain the dramatic declines he experienced in both of his careers.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you feel should be the Cardinals top priority this offseason?

JOE STRAUSS
Obviously, getting a handle on Matt Holliday’s situation is significant because of what signing him would do to the club’s financial flexibility. Likewise, losing him to free agency frees up significant money to pursue another direction. Holliday is Scott Boras’ leading free agent this winter. Boras typically leaves his top client on the market for an extended period. This tendency does not square with the Cardinals’ desire for a quick resolution. If Holliday reaches the open market, the Cardinals’ task in signing him becomes exponentially more difficult, so much so that Jason Bay’s name now freely floats within the organization. The team’s late-season meltdown against “plus” pitching underscores the need for further improvement.

DERRICK GOOLD
This very public eagerness to work on an extension with Albert Pujols strikes me as a non-traditional strategy, especially with two years remaining on his contract and his leverage likely never better with a second consecutive MVP on the way. It makes sense to do eventually, but why the push to do it now? Unless they want to do something in concert to make sure when they add a new player Pujols is still the highest-paid player . . . hmm. Simply, the priority should be outfitting the lineup around Pujols, Mr. I Want to Stay With a Contender, and to do that with the best bat that fits — the team’s finances, the team’s structure and the team’s approach, all of it. That still is Matt Holliday. Linking his best years to Pujols’ best years is in everyone’s interest.

RICK HUMMEL
The top priority is to explore the prospect of re-signing OF Matt Holliday to a long-term deal. If not, I would offer him arbitration (to make sure of getting two draft picks) and he might even accept that if there isn’t a long-term deal he likes anywhere.

JEFF GORDON
Top priority: Lock-up Albert Pujols for the long haul. Once that is done, the cornerstone is secured and all the other decisions will fall into place. The other matters are minor compared to this one. If he can’t be secured during this offseason, for whatever reason, then the need to re-sign Matt Holliday increases — since this team will need somebody to build a batting order around from 2012 on.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Bringing back the manager and the pitching coach would be at the top of my list. I’m not sure Matt Holliday is worth what the market will bear, so I wouldn’t rate him No. 1. Plus the team has kids like Allen Craig and Jon Jay who may prove worthy of an opportunity to do in 2010 what Colby Rasmus did in 2009. In fact, I’m almost leaning toward letting all the kids battle for the open roster spots early in the year and then dealing for veterans, if necessary, come June or July. I think what the team did this year worked quite well and I’d follow that pattern again just in case guys like Craig, Jay, David Freese, Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth and Mitchell Boggs have breakthroughs. Spend the money to get Albert re-signed and then deal for veterans in-season, if necessary.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have scuffled to find wins this past week. Is this just a market correction after the sizzling month of August or do you see some tangible areas of concern for this team moving forward?

BERNIE MIKLASZ

The Cardinals struggle against good pitching, lefthanded pitching, and no-name pitchers. All teams don’t hit as well against the first-tier pitchers, of course. With the lefthanders, the problems are basically this: (1) the Cardinals are a fastball-hitting team, and the lefties throw more breaking and offspeed stuff; (2) guys who are supposed to be hitting the lefties aren’t getting it done. Mark DeRosa is batting .214 vs. LH since coming over from Cleveland. Julio Lugo, who starts at 2B much of the time when a LH is starting, is only batting .226 against the lefties since joining the Cardinals. And in CF, Rick Ankiel (.242) and Colby Rasmus (.147) are often overmatched against lefties. About the no-name pitchers: there’s a flaw in the system. The Cardinals rely on video scouting, which doesn’t really prepare them for actual competition against a pitcher for the first time. October should be interesting, because the Cardinals figure to see plenty of quality pitchers, plenty of LH pitchers.

JEFF GORDON

Any time a team’s closer struggles right before the playoffs, that is a huge reason for concern. Also, when a team doesn’t have an effective fourth starter heading into the playoffs, that is a concern, too. And this offense takes whole nights off for whatever reason. So, yes, Tony La Russa does have serious concerns.

RICK HUMMEL

Much of the Cardinals’ August success was achieved against bottom feeders Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, San Diego, Washington and pitching-starved Milwaukee. Now they’re playing contending clubs with top starting staffs and bullpens. The hits are harder to come by.

GERRY FRALEY

The quality of competition must be considered when looking at the Cardinals. They went 20-6 during August by doing what contenders must do: pound the bad teams. Of the seven clubs the Cardinals faced in August, only one has a winning record: the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the last week, the Cardinals have played clubs more typical of what they will face in the post-season: Atlanta and Florida. That does not mean they are doomed to an early exit, but it is a reminder there are no tomato-can opponents in the post-season as there were in August.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: From all you’ve seen from Colby Rasmus so far during his rookie season, what are your expectations for the Cardinals centerfielder in the coming years?

JOE STRAUSS
Rasmus does a number of things very well. At 23, he’s a very mature baserunner and has good instincts tracking balls. He makes both look very easy. His ability to smoke a ball 440 feet is rather exceptional for a 180-pounder who has dealt with weight loss this season. He also has a good eye and bunts well. I wonder what his potential might be as a base-stealer. If anything, he has been underexposed in that regard this season, though regular appearances in the No. 2 spot in the lineup argue against daring on the bases.

Raz’ has an obvious hole: He has yet to find a comfort zone against LH pitching. Improving against lefts will dictate whether he becomes a productive everyday hitter who can hit for more than a .260 average. If there is a disappointing element to his game so far, it’s been his sluggish adjustment against lefts. That has kept him off the field enough to severely diminish his Rookie of the Year candidacy.

My opinion remains as it was before the season: a 25 HR, 90 RBI guy who may steal 20 bases while hitting .270-.280. Perhaps he will evolve into a No. 5 hitter for a very good team, but right now it’s easier to project him as a No. 2 or No. 6 bat for a NL contender. Rasmus exudes a flat-liner’s personality. Some interpret that as a lack of urgency within his game, which may be unfair. However, he may be a guy who could help himself by playing the game a little more “mad.” The attribute has served many gifted players well.

RICK HUMMEL
When Rasmus settles in and becomes more comfortable in his environment, he should be a 20-25 homer man with 25-30 steals. He may not be a .300 hitter but he’ll border on Gold Glove status in the outfield, once he learns the players and the parks. His health is a factor here, though. Rasmus, through illness and stress, lost too much weight during this season and somehow must adjust his eating habits so that he can keep weight on longer.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Rasmus has an abundance of talent. He can be a 25-homer, 25-steals guy in the majors on an annual basis. But like many young players, he has to make sure to supplement his talent through more effective workouts and nutrition. I’m not suggesting that Rasmus has been negligent. He’s just a rookie, that’s all. They have a lot to learn and they always need to be adapting. Raz needs to get stronger and he needs to maintain his stamina so he can play at a higher level more consistently. Cutting down on the strikeouts would be a plus, too.

DERRICK GOOLD
What a learning experience his rookie season has been for Young Rasmus, the three-time top prospect and the organization’s figurehead for its renovated farm system. For the first time in his life, he hasn’t been a featured or everyday starter. He’s had to change his diet, deal with nagging injuries, soldier through extended slumps and adjust to the culture shock that a major-league clubhhouse can be for some. And yet … He’s done alright. For awhile he was leading the Rookie of the Year conversation, and while weight loss and a long season may have put him on the backburner in the ROY race, he’s still shown ample improvements as a player.

All of that bodes well for when he takes over as the everyday centerfielder next season. Rasmus has the athleticism to be an excellent defensive player at a key position. He has the nose for base hits and the legs for extra bases, so 100 runs will come with playing time. And, as he adapts his in-season work to improve his stamina he’ll show the power that could make him a 20- or 25-homer threat. A 20-20 season isn’t out of the question for a center fielder who could soon be the best at his position in the division.

JEFF GORDON
He should fit somewhere between Aaron Rowand and Jim Edmonds. He is already a nice major league outfielder. But can he make the adjustments at the plate? Rick Ankiel roared into the majors as a promising power hitter, then he suffered a massive relapse when pitchers adapted to him. That is a cautionary tale for Rasmus. Big league pitchers prey on weaknesses. Rasmus must work daily to fill those holes, then continue to make adjustments throughout his career. It’s too early to define that side of Colby’s profile, I’ve been impressed by his ability to produce even while moving in and out of the lineup.

GERRY FRALEY
Rasmus could be a Jim Edmonds-type player. He gets good angles on balls hit to center field, and he has a better arm than Edmonds. The big step will be hitting left-handed pitching. Edmonds hit lefthanders from the moment he arrived in the majors with the Angels. Rasmus has not done that, hitting only .149 with a .230 slugging percentage against lefthanders. If he improves there, the Edmonds comparison becomes more valid.

THE WATERCOOLER:
For the season, Rick Ankiel’s batting numbers are worse than Chris Duncan’s so is Tony La Russa correct in saying Duncan has been treated unfairly by the fans?

RICK HUMMEL:
Duncan would have to hit .280 with 25 homers and 80 RBI and field 1,000 to win over the fan base here, some of which unfortunately think he is on the team because his father is the pitching coach. Ankiel almost always has been the feel-good story, where people seem to root for him. Duncan, for whatever reason, has folks rooting for him not to succeed. The skipper has some merit in his complaint although neither Duncan, nor Anklel, nor Rasmus for that matter, is not helping the club much now.

JEFF GORDON:
Yes, Chris Duncan has gotten a rougher ride from fans due to his family ties. It’s not easy playing for your father’s team. Expectations are higher. Fans won’t cut you slack as you play hurt and play out of position. But Chris had every chance to win over fans when Ankiel and Ludwick went down. He had every chance to reestablish himself as a good offensive player and he failed. Now he is REALLY struggling at the plate. That, combined with his painful defensive limitations, makes him an easy target. It’s not fair, but that is life in the big leagues.

JOE STRAUSS:
Tony’s right only if he means everyone should start criticizing Ankiel,too.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Rick Ankiel’s numbers are worse. Chris Duncan is hardly alone in his current struggles (i.e., Colby Rasmus is 4-for-37). Other’s defensive faux pas are easily forgiven. And few truly know — or take the time to care — the kind of pain Duncan was in and the radical surgery he required to sleep comfortably again, let alone play baseball. For some reason, Duncan is, as Tony La Russa put succinctly here yesterday, the “whipping boy.” Well, wait … we know the reason. He’s the pitching coach’s kid. Fans have the right to wail about Duncan’s amount of playing time and his lack of production, and there is plenty to be critical about. Start with the fact that Duncan’s most recent appearance was against Jose Valverde and he could start tonight against Roy Oswalt. Not exactly slump-busting assignments. But the solid, reasonable criticisms of Duncan cannot be heard above the loony din. The tone of some of the emails I receive are vicious, bordering on obsessive. It’s not healthy. One person with the team told me earlier this season that the best thing for Duncan would be to hit well, hit for power, and hit his way into a trade. I see what he means.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: With four home runs in his last seven games and his batting average up to .283, is it safe to assume that Colby Rasmus has now earned the job as the Cardinals’ EVERYDAY centerfielder?

DERRICK GOOLD
If he hasn’t already, it cannot be long before he does. At the least, Rasmus is an everyday outfielder and has been for some time. The rookie has thrived in the No. 2 spot, batting .292 there with a .506 slugging percentage. Seven of his 11 home runs have been hit from the spot ahead of Albert Pujols. And that’s where Tony La Russa has wanted him to excel. A few weeks ago, La Russa was in his office discussing his lineup and the notion of having Rasmus bat cleanup: “You know I like him a lot in the two spot.” The two-spot for the Cardinals just may be the best spot in baseball to hit. La Russa’s checklist to hit that spot includes a lot of the assets Rasmus has shown. Rasmus has the speed to score from first on a Pujols’ extra base hit and he has the strike-zone feel and aggressiveness to pounce on the strikes he’s going to see ahead of the MVP. That has been keenly obvious since his return from the hernia and as he’s surpassed 200 major-league at-bats. It seems obvious the best bat the Cardinals have for the best spot to bat in baseball is Rasmus. That makes him an everday player.

RICK HUMMEL
No question, although that doesn’t mean that manager La Russa won’t sit Rasmus against a particularly tough lefthander once in a while. But Rick Ankiel will be the regular left fielder or in a platoon in left.

JEFF GORDON
Absolutely. Rick Ankiel is lost at the plate. Ankiel showed some signs of life back in April, but his months-long funk is turning him into a pine-time player. Rasmus is a natural in center field. He isn’t as flashy as Ankiel, but he is more sound defensively. And right now he is the team’s second-best offensive player, behind only Albert. He will be in center field for a long, long time. What happens to Ankiel is anybody’s guess.

GERRY FRALEY
By easing Rasmus into the lineup, Cardinals manager Tony La Russa played it just right. That allowed Rasmus to find his footing in the majors without any added pressure. Rasmus is now free to take off, which appears to have been La Russa’s plan all along. Rasmus can hit less than .283 and still be the everyday center fielder because he is clearly the club’s best defensive player at the position.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Absolutely. In addition to being the hottest of the Cardinals four regular outfielders at the plate, Colby also happens to be the best defendsive center fielder on the team. That combination should be enough to get him “everyday” at-bats, regardless of whether the opposing starter is right- or left-handed. The key thing to remember is that Colby is also at the stage of his career where significant improvement can come simply from getting reps. The more he faces lefties, the better he’ll get at it. In contrast, guys like Ankiel and Duncan essentially “are what they are” at this stage of their careers. If they’re not hitting lefties yet, they probably aren’t going to. Rasmus has the ability to be an impact player now and in the future and impact players don’t sit because the other team’s starter throws with the wrong hand.

THE WATERCOOLER

SCENARIO: A major league club opens the season with a pared-down payroll following an offseason in search of “low-hanging fruit” for free agent help. The club’s 99-RBI third baseman from a year ago is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Its former Cy Young-winning pitcher, whom the club said was vital to the success of the rotation this year, is already on the DL again. The team’s defense has committed 19 errors through 20 games. And the club’s manager is shuffling his lineup more than a blackjack dealer to find the right matchups. Through all of this the club finds itself at 14-6 through 20 games and sitting atop the NL Central. That club is the 2009 Cardinals.

QUESTION: Given all these obstacles, and perhaps a few more not mentioned, what do you think is the key to success the Cardinals have had so far this year and is there reason to believe they can sustain a pace anywhere near this?

JOE STRAUSS
Without a doubt the longest question in the history of Round 2. That said, the key to date is the stability of the offensive core, the rotation’s early effectiveness and the bullpen’s solid performance when allowed to pitch in role. (We’ll give the defense a break today.) The take here remains much as it was entering the season: Minus Troy Glaus, the Cardinals will remain solid if their 20 best players remain available. The loss of Chris Carpenter is significant but won’t become magnified unless further attrition occurs. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are experiencing what the Cardinals cannot afford as Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol are all compromised. So far, this season represents a (near) best-case scenario for the Redbirds.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
This will be my shortest answer ever: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Period. Despite the insane, inexplicable hatred that a faction of bizarre, hopelessly bitter fans have for the manager and pitching coach. Can the Cardinals keep it up? Down to the wire, yes. They’ll be in the hunt in September. And that’s the goal.

DERRICK GOOLD
You mean besides the obvious two-word answer: Albert Pujols? The fuel for the Cardinals’ quick start is offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Cardinals led the league in batting average and were fourth in runs scored, yet this year’s lineup is deeper and has the chance to be better because the production won’t be isolated around the island of Pujols-Ludwick. The Cardinals’ hitting this April has papered-over serious concerns, like the innings the starters are leaving for the work-in-progress bullpen to swallow and the errors that force those same pitchers to pitch around. Even an offense powered by Pujols cannot keep up this current pace. Those flaws will come out.

So the starters have to go deeper into games if the Cardinals are going to remain atop the NL Central, and the defense cannot give away outs to make going deeper into games more difficult. The absence of Chris Carpenter is enough of a challenge for the rotation and bullpen to overcome.

Can the Cardinals keep up this winning percentage? No. Can they slow down and still win the NL Central? It’s bad form to back off preseason predictions (especially three weeks in), so I’ll stick with the answer I gave for the preview section. … Sure. Sure, they can.

RICK HUMMEL
The keys, in no particular order, have been the comeback of Joel Pineiro (4-0), who didn’t win his fourth game until August last year; the emergence of Ryan Franklin from a tangled bullpen as the closer; the insight and, even daring, of manager Tony La Russa to find the right daily combinations in the outfield and at third base; the ability of catcher Yadier Molina and the pitchers to absolutely nullify the opposition’s running game. . . and, of course, Albert Pujols. Nobody else has a player like that and anybody who does will always be a contender. Will the Cardinals play .700 ball? No. Could they win 90 or more games? Yes. Will they? I thought 90 before the season, so I’ll stay with that.

JEFF GORDON
There are three keys to the Cards success:

1) The much-maligned Cards managed investing in pitching, extending Kyle Lohse’s deal a year after doing the same for Joel Pineiro. These two are helping offset Carpenter’s injury. John Mozeliak responded to his bullpen deficiency by buying free agent Dennys Reyes during spring training.

2) The player development is paying off. Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs are helping the home-grown Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan and Chris Duncan get the job done.

3) Once again, the team located scrappy, handy utility players in Brian Barden and Joe Thurston.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is blessed with two outstanding coaches in vital positions.

The good work of pitching coach Dave Duncan is well-chronicled. Duncan knows how to get through to distressed pitchers and make them embrace his pitch-to-contact philosophy. This staff will not light up the radar guns, but it will get ground-ball outs.

Batting coach Hal McRae is equally good in his field. He teaches his hitters to use the entire field rather than trying to pull every pitch. A National League scout at last weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs said McRae’s hitters are unusual in that they can drive the ball to the opposite field. When most hitters use the opposite field, the scout said, they lob the ball for singles. The Cardinals get extra-base hits to the opposite field. They go into tonight’s game leading the National League in average at .296, slugging percentage at .476 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at .854.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the 2009 season kicks off, the Cards have many interesting story lines: Players returning from injuries, players switching positions, players acquired via trade or free agency and players making their debuts in new roles. Of all the interesting story lines, which player do you think might most surprise Cardinal fans this season?

JOE STRAUSS
I believe Colby Rasmus will prove valuable to this year’s club, but perhaps in a more nuanced way than most would project. Rasmus does not project as a 500 at-bat rookie. However, expect TLR to use him surgically by starting him in more advantageous pitching matchups; bringing him off the bench late for either defense or PH duty; hitting him No. 9 or turning him loose as a base-stealer. Raz’ likely will grow into his reputation as an impact major-league player. For now, less may be more. But it will not diminish his early influence.

RICK HUMMEL
Khalil Greene. Many fans and observers tend to look at just the previous season’s statistics when trying to assess a player. But, in Greene’s case, he looked this spring much more like the 27-homer, 97 RBI man of 2007 with San Diego than the .213-hitting, 10-homer hitter of last year. Off what I’ve seen, his average is likely to be much better than his .248 lifetime number.

JEFF GORDON
I’ll vote for Joel Pineiro. He never got rolling last year, as we all saw, but he was pretty impressive in 2007 (3.96 earned-run average in 11 appearances) while providing emergency help. He showed up in great shape and used his World Baseball Classic snub as a motivator. He just turned in one of the most impressive starting pitching performances of this spring. And fans forget that Joel won 30 games during the 2002-03 seasons in Seattle.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Khalil Greene has the most “surprise” potential in ’09 coming off his awful ’08 campaign. A lot of the other emerging players have interesting story lines for sure, but in almost every one of those other cases the player is a highly rated prospect, a proven veteran or someone that did good things in a Cardinals uniform last season. Hence it would be less surprising if they had success.

Greene will be a much bigger offensive threat than Cesar Izturis and he’ll be a better defender than David Eckstein. In fact, Greene should have the best offensive season for a Cardinals shortstop since Edgar Renteria’s monster ’03 season, though he definitely will not approach Renteria’s .330-13-100 (.874 OPS) performance.

There are several other potential surprises lurking on the ’09 Cardinals roster and maybe that’s why I’m feeling a little more optimistic about them now than I did at this point last spring. With reasonably good health — an interesting caveat to say the least — the Cards should be 4-5 games better than they were in ’08.

The question is whether or not that will be enough to get them in the playoffs.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals return three starting outfielders in All-Star Ryan Ludwick, .300-hitting leadoff batter Skip Schumaker and 20-homer center fielder Rick Ankiel. And that doesn’t even include super-prospect Colby Rasmus. But what about Chris Duncan, who — before injuries set in — hit .273 with 43 home runs and 113 RBIs in 655 at-bats in 2006-07? Appearing healthy again at spring training following two surgeries, manager Tony La Russa says Duncan holds an edge in the crowded outfield due to his big league production. Do you see Duncan as an everyday outfielder over the others, or do you think he’s better utilized as a situational hitter or, perhaps, someday as a DH?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
No manager is better at distributing at-bats than Tony La Russa. That said, he’ll have to play Chris Duncan based on Duncan’s viability. If Duncan returns to the power-hitting form he showed in 2006 and the first half of 2007, he can be a force as a frequent lineup presence against righthanded pithing. But if Duncan is struggling, La Russa will lose credibility by giving him at-bats that should go to others. In a perfect world Duncan would play enough to mash righthanded pitching, but if he’s back into the helpless mode, frankly he’s of little use to this team. It seems to me that La Russa’s biggest headache this season will be finding enough at-bats to justify keeping Colby Rasmus in the major leagues. That’s why I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rasmus start off the year at Triple A. This is a tricky political situation for La Russa because even if Duncan performs well a considerable percentage of the fan base will be crying nepotism and demanding that the lions’ share of the at-bats go to Ankiel, Schumaker and Rasmus — the other lefthanded hittings outfielders.

JOE STRAUSS
The question is almost rhetorical. Of course Little Dunc’ projects better as a DH and a guy who should be protected against lefthanded pitching. But that is not to detract from his short-term value to the Cardinals. He entered last season (we’ll consider ’08 a wash because of injuries) a career .287 hitter vs. RH pitching compared to .209 vs LHP. He averaged a HR every 13.5 at-bats vs RHP compared to one every 32 at-bats vs LHP. In 2007, 20 of his 21 HR came off RHP. He has so far proven a force off the bench with five HRs in his first 53 pinch at-bats. Duncan hit two grand slams in his first 21 career at-bats with the bases loaded. He also has improved against breaking stuff. As a fourth outfielder, Duncan is virtually certain to prove more valuable than when playing frequently with injuries as he has the last two years.

RICK HUMMEL
Ultimately, Duncan would be better as a designated hitter. But obviously he can’t do that in the National League. Remember, he was the best No. 2 hitter in front of Pujols that the Cardinals had. And he will take a walk. He hit almost 45 home runs over two years. If he’s healthy, Duncan belongs in the lineup.

BRYAN BURWELL
I think this is La Russa’s way of reminding the kid Rasmus that the starting CF job is not promised to him and that this is an open competition for all the OF jobs. I can see a healthy Duncan being a starter in LF and batting No. 2.

JEFF GORDON
Chris Duncan could have a breakout offensive season. When healthy, he can mash the ball. He has become a selective hitter. For that breakout to happen here, however, somebody else must get hurt or fail. When Colby Rasmus reaches the Cards outfield — and he will at some point this season — something will have to give. It just will. Ryan Ludwick must get 500 at bats as the team’s second best righthanded power source. Rick Ankiel has unlimited offensive potential and fabulous right-field defensive skills. So he must play, too. Even if Skip Schumaker moves to second base, there will be a surplus once the well-rounded Rasmus arrives to play center field for the next 10 years.

If everybody hits this spring and stays healthy, then John Mozeliak will have to deal either Duncan or Ankiel for other commodities. With Jon Jay, Brian Barton, Daryl Jones and others on the climb as well, a massive outfield logjam is forming.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

CROSS ROBERTS OFF LIST: For those Cardinal fans that have been opining for the team to make a run at Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts, it appears he’s off the market. Roberts confirmed to the Baltimore Sun this morning that he’s on the brink of signing a four-year, $40 million extension with the Orioles. Let’s be real here anyway … recent history has shown that the Cardinals would never commit that kind of jack to a second baseman. So what can Cards fans hope for with the team’s second base situation? They can hope Jose Oquendo coaches his tail off this spring and can have someone ready to man the middle infield by early April.

GRIFFEY GOES TO GREATS: Struggling to make a choice between playing for the Atlanta Braves or the Seattle Mariners this season, Ken Griffey Jr. picked up the phone and called Hall of Famers Willie Mays and Hank Aaron for advice, according to an ESPN.com report.

Griffey’s agent, Brian Goldberg, told ESPN that both players advised Griffey to consider his long-term legacy when making the decision. “Willie hit on it a little harder, but they both said, ‘You have to do what you want to do,’” Goldberg said. “They told him, ‘You might have to make some short-term sacrifices. But the bottom line is, Go by how you want to be remembered for the next 50 years after you’re done.’” Griffey ultimately chose the Mariners, heading back to the place where he began his career.

First, how cool would it be to call Willie Mays and Hank Aaron for life advice? Second, how refreshing is it that money didn’t seem to factor into the equation? Third, how nice is it to hear someone talking about a player’s legacy without using the word “steroids”?

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THINGS TO PONDER

JUST ONE MORE BOUNCE: The new, calmer, more Zen-like approach to observing the Blues paid off last night. Rather than flipping the game off in disgust when the Blues fell behind 4-1 in the second period, I stayed tuned through the intermission to see how they would respond in the third. I was rewarded by witnessing a team play with desperation — bringing a much stronger forecheck and funneling the puck to the net. In fact, the shorthanded goal by Alex Steen and the followup goal by T.J. Oshie with four minutes remaining actually had me thinking the Blues had a chance to garner a point. My mind was trying to tell me that after losing so many points in the closing minutes this year, perhaps this was the night to see it reversed. Alas, the Blues couldn’t get that one lucky bounce a team sometimes needs.

Coach Andy Murray was rightfully upset with how the Blues opened the game; particularly how the team reacted to the early penalty on Barret Jackman (which led to a PP goal) and Steve Wagner’s defensive gaffe (which led to another goal). Down 2-0 on the road in the first period just isn’t where you want to be.

I’m no Blues apologist, but like I said in this space last week, for the rest of this season I’m trying to look through the rose-colored glasses of the future. And what I saw in the third period was a team that didn’t give up, and for those fans that stayed tuned in, a little excitement before the final buzzer.

HOW TOUGH ARE HOCKEY PLAYERS? This tough. Ottawa Senators captain Daniel Alfredsson had his jaw fractured when he was hit in the face by a puck Wednesday night during his team’s 3-2 overtime loss to Colorado. Alfreddson, who’s no youngster at age 36, left the game for X-rays but returned to finish the third period and overtime. Now that the Senators know his jaw is broken, how long will he be out? At least a week, according to the club. A week. I know that’s a minimum, but if I fractured my jaw I’d spend at least a week on the couch downing pain killers and watching Jerry Springer … much less thinking about getting back on the ice to get slammed around just seven days later. Can you imagine a pro baseball player coming back from a broken jaw in a week? No, me neither.

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NUMBER OF THE DAY

No. 2 — Who will the Rams take with No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft? Hard to say depending on the strategy of new GM Billy Devaney. Do you go with best player available, greatest need, skill position … so many different ways to look at it. But in honor of the NFL Combine kicking off today, I thought I’d update you on Scout.com’s 2009 draft rankings as of today. Check it out and see if it changes your opinion on who the Rams should take.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you think will be the strongest determining factor(s) as to whether or not Tony La Russa returns as Cardinals manager after his contract expires at the end of this season?

JOE STRAUSS
1. Inner drive
2. Team’s success
3. Working relationship with front office/ownership
4. Job availability elsewhere

BERNIE MIKLASZ
La Russa usually bases his decision on his relationship with players, and certainly that will be an important factor again. But this time his relationship with Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak will be the most substantial consideration. It will come down to trust. Namely: does La Russa believe that management is committed to giving him a reasonable chance to win?

RICK HUMMEL
La Russa stays if he thinks (a) the players still tolerate him, (b) management still wants him, (c) the fans haven’t turned on him and (d) if the Cardinals have a good enough season in 2009 and a nucleus that could challenge for a world title in 2010. But (e) I think he’ll think 14 years is quite enough, especially if the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs for a third straight season.

DERRICK GOOLD
Simply, his fire. If manager Tony La Russa still burns to compete, to manage, to spend months away from home, days leaning on a fungo bat and some nights tossing and turning in his office at Busch Stadium, then he’ll return. If he gets to a point where even he doesn’t buy the message he’s selling after all of these years, then he’ll take a break or call it a career. Sure he wants to be supplied with a ready-to-contend club — who doesn’t? — but the Cardinals offer him a comfort and an environment that is appealing and supportive beyond the competitive level of the team. They cater to him and his staff. He recognizes that. Only when he cannot meet his own standards of competitive verve will he walk away.

JEFF GORDON
Can the kids play? If Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, Brett Wallace, Jason Motte, David Freese, Joe Mather, Jess Todd, Jon Jay et al are really all that, then the Cards will be highly competitive going forward. Tony La Russa would have a chance to mold the next generation of players. But if the emphasis on player development doesn’t pay off, then the philosophical differences between TLR and Bill DeWitt/John Mozeliak will drive him away.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

TEN NIGHTS IN FEBRUARY: In the immortal words of Jim Mora, “Playoffs?!? Playoffs?!?”

Yes, I know it may sound absurd talking about the Blues playoff chances as they sit in last place today in the Western Conference. Blues players and the front office certainly have tried to steer clear of too much playoff talk, rather focusing on the “one-game-at-a-time” mantra. But I’m here to tell you that ten nights in February will be the make-or-break period that defines this team’s season.

And it begins tonight, fittingly, in a game against the team now holding the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference — Vancouver. In the next ten games, a period that will end in Phoenix on Feb. 28, the Blues will be doing battle almost solely against teams within striking distance in the Western Conference. It’s a unique opportunity for this team to pick up points, climb in the standings and be sitting on the cusp of a playoff spot when the calendar hits March.

Currently the Blues are in 15th place with 50 points. Take a look at the upcoming sked, with total team points and where the teams’ stand in the Western Conference:

Vancouver, 56 points, 8th place
@ Nashville, 53 points, 12th place
Chicago, 66 points, 4th place
New York Rangers (6th place in Eastern Conference)
@ Columbus, 55 points, 10th place
@ Nashville
Nashville
Phoenix, 53 points, 13th place
@ Dallas, 59 points, 5th place
@ Phoenix

You look at that sked and tell me the import of these next ten games. The Blues get three shots at 12th-place Nashville and two against 13th-place Phoenix. And in the last ten games they’ve played, the Blues have performed as well or better than all of these teams ahead of them in the conference. This is the pivotal point of the season. A strong run in the next ten games (let’s say 14 or 15 points) puts them in the thick of the race. On the flip side, coming out of this stretch at .500 most likely leaves the Blues on the outside looking in again this year.

It begins tonight. Vancouver. One game at a time.

A-ROD, A-ROID, A-FRAUD: So Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez — after getting caught — comes clean (no pun intended) and admits he was using steroids while with the Texas Rangers from 2001-2003. What, does this really surprise anyone? Just because the guy has had a relationship with the modern-day Madonna, did you think it meant He walked on water? I think it’s sad news for the game of baseball as many thought Rodriguez ultimately, and legitimately, would one day grab the title of Home Run King from Barry Bonds. Now we know Rodriguez’s numbers will be tainted, too, along with the rest of them. But I really can’t say I’m surprised … in fact, there’s not a name in the game that could come out as having used ’roids some time in the last ten years that would truly surprise me. Not one. I’m not saying everyone did it, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be surprised. Would you? Really?

As expected, the New York tabloids are having a field day with A-Rod’s “confession.” I particularly enjoyed a column by Daily News columnist Mike Lupica, where he says, “(Rodriguez) says he was young, stupid, naive. The fact of the matter is that he took the drugs for the same reason they all took them — to get bigger and stronger and better. In that way he is no better than Barry Bonds or any other drug cheat.”

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THINGS TO PONDER

ONE TOKE OVER THE LINE: Swimmer Michael Phelps tells the Baltimore Sun “it will take a few months” to decide whether he’s willing to commit to the 2012 Olympics. After recently being pictured in a British tabloid smoking a bong, it’s not all that surprising Phelps needs time sorting out his thoughts … it comes with the territory. (Or so I’m told.)

Speaking of Phelps, if you haven’t seen the Seth Meyers’ Weekend Update from Saturday Night Live taking Kellogg’s to task for dumping Phelps as a spokesman, you’re missing a good one. Meyers also chides USA Swimming for suspending Phelps for three months, saying: If you really want someone to stop smoking pot, giving them three months off work probably isn’t the best way to do it.

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STAT OF THE DAY

21 seconds — That is the fastest hat trick scored by a player in NHL history. The feat was accomplished by Bill Mosienko of the Chicago Blackhawks on March 23, 1952. According to “Hockey’s Top 100: The Game’s Greatest Records,” here’s how it happened: The Blackhawks were trailing the Rangers 6-2 in the third period. At 6:09, Mosienko snapped a low wrister past goalie Lorne Anderson, a rookie appearing in only his third NHL game. On the ensuing faceoff, Mosienko received a pass from teammate Gus Bodnar and put it in the net at 6:20. Another Chicago faceoff win left Mosienko with the puck and he reportedly deked Anderson off his feet, netting his third goal at 6:30. That’s it … three goals, 21 seconds.

As a side note, the Rangers fell apart and lost that game 7-6 … and that rookie goaltender? Well, Lorne Anderson never played again in the NHL.