THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have two legitimate Cy Young Award candidates in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Assuming at the end of the season the stats stacked up pretty much as they do today, could Wainwright or Carpenter actually win the award or would the two more likely cancel out each other’s votes? Or, would San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum be the clear-cut winner regardless of the two Redbirds’ performances?

A look at how the three match up today in numbers and league rankings (keeping in mind Carp has pitched approximately 40 less innings than the other two):

Chris Carpenter
130.2 inning pitched
Wins: 12 (4th)
ERA: 2.27 (2nd)
Strikeouts: 97 (33rd)

Adam Wainwright
172 innings pitched
Wins: 14 (1st)
ERA: 2.62 (5th)
Strikeouts: 149 (5th)

Tim Lincecum
172.1 innings pitched
Wins: 12 (4th)
ERA: 2.19 (1st)
Strikeouts: 205 (1st)

JOE STRAUSS
There would need to be serious slippage by Lincecum for Carp’ to overtake him, given that Lincecum has amassed his percentages in significantly more starts. Lincecum also has a chance for 270-280 strikeouts, a powerful number. The Giants are not a robust offensive team, and a drag on Lincecum’s win total could create opportunity for Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is in a stronger position because of his durability. He has an outstanding shot at 20 wins. A sub-2.50 ERA, the league lead in wins and innings pitched and a strong September within a pennant race would be compelling. It wouldn’t hurt to mention Dan Haren and Josh Johnson in the discussion as well, along with Matt Cain.

DERRICK GOOLD
Tim Lincecum is the clear-cut leader right now despite impressive candidacies from the Cardinals’ tandem aces. Forget that Lincecum is the incumbent and is arguably pitching better this season than when he won the Cy Young Award last season. The San Francisco Freak leads the league with a 2.19 ERA, he’s within striking distance of the lead in victories, and no one is close to his league-best 205 strikeouts. Those are just the most obvious stats. If things continue at their current pace, Lincecum and Adam Wainwright will jockey for the league lead in innings pitched, and that may be what keeps Chris Carpenter — whose other numbers are equally as dominant as the other two — from elbowing into the top spot on the Cy Young ballot. KTRS/550 AM’s John Marecek had a great stat the other day: Only twice has a starting pitcher thrown fewer than 200 innings and won the Cy Young. Rick Sutcliffe, who was traded during his Cy Young season, and Fernando Valenzuela, who won in a strike-shortened year of 1981. Carpenter is pitching uphill.

RICK HUMMEL
Lincecum wins again as long as he leads in ERA and in strikeouts (he is sure to win that title.) If Wainwright got to 20 wins, he would be a factor. Carpenter missed some six weeks and can’t be considered as strong a candidate because of that fact.

JEFF GORDON
Lincecum’s strikeout total — and Ks per 9 IP — puts him in his own world right now. The kid is dominating. Now, if he falters and Carpenter keeps winning games, the equation changes. Wainwright ranks among the strikeout leaders, but he is way short of Lincecum. Also, Lincecum has the hair thing going for him.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t think there would be a clear cut winner from those three at the moment, and I’d have to throw in Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85, 140 K) of the Marlins and Matt Cain (12-4, 2.49, 126 K) as well. They’re right there with the other three in every way possible.

In terms of won-loss record, ERA and base runners allowed per 9 innings, these five are almost indistinguishable from one another. In cases like this, I like to see who has been the most “dominant” by looking at strikeouts and opponent batting averages. Lincecum strikes out 10.71 batters per 9 innings and nobody else in this group is even close — Johnson is 2nd best at 7.81 K/9. Lincecum also owns the lowest opponent batting average in the group at .211 and again Johnson is 2nd best at .224.

In what I perceive as a 5-way tie with a month and a half to go, the tiebreakers go to Lincecum.

TODAY’S TOP STORIES

KNOWING A BARGAIN WHEN YOU SEE ONE: “Good stuff cheap” read’s the Boston Globe’s online headline this morning. This after the announcement that the Red Sox have reached a preliminary agreement with future Hall of Fame starter/closer John Smoltz on a one-year, $5 million deal. According to the report, Smoltz, 41, will finalize the deal later today and can earn another $5 million in performance incentives.

Oh, and the Red Sox also picked up former first-round pick Rocco Baldelli in a one-year, performance-laden deal.

You think of the big, bad Red Sox as a free-wheeling, free-spending organization, but after missing out in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes the Bosox have acted with financial prudence, taking shots on guys who have exceeded at the highest level, and doing so at discount prices that only escalate based on actual performance.

You may recall the Red Sox already have signed former Dodgers ace Brad Penny to a one-year, $5 million deal. That escalates to the neighborhood of $8 million with performance incentives.

Both Smoltz and Penny had some injury issues last season, but both also have shown the ability to perform at an extemely high level when healthy, Smoltz in a Cooperstown-sort-of-way. The Sox have invested $10 million guaranteed that the two can help them push toward another World Series. And if they don’t perform, Boston can walk away after one year and not be bogged down by long-term contracts.

Both examples, to me, seem exactly the kind of deal the Cardinals have indicated they are looking for. Smoltz, in particular, meets the characteristics of the kind of player described by manager Tony La Russa just last week that he’d like to have — someone with starting and closing experience. Alas, the Cardinals remain on the sidelines.

Perhaps the Cards are doing the right thing by remaining patient as the market for pitchers sets itself. Then again, you don’t want patience to turn into paralysis.

IN OTHER BASEBALL NEWS: The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is reporting today that the Brewers have signed all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman to a one-year, $6 million deal. Hoffman can earn an addition $1.5 million in incentives, based on games finished, according to the report. So scratch Hoffman off the list. You can read what the Journal-Sentinel and Milwaukee fans have to say at the blog site highlighted above.

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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Who will win tonight’s BCS Championship game between Florida and Oklahoma and what will be the final score?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Florida “holds” Oklahoma four touchdowns below what it’s been scoring in the second half of the season but can’t quite stop the Sooners.
Oklahoma 35, Florida 28

STU DURANDO
The SEC doesn’t lose in the championship game. I’m sick of the SEC but until it loses I can’t pick against any of its teams. However, this game is completely anti-climactic to me. The BCS folks have made this an afterthought by playing on a Thursday night, a week after New Year’s Day. I feel more like I’m about to watch a great season opener for 2009.
Florida 37, Oklahoma 30

JOE STRAUSS
If money grew on trees, this is what handicappers would refer to as “low-hanging money.” As the bowl season has screamed: The SEC is big league, the Big 12 is 4-A. Teams that don’t play defense don’t hang against SEC big boys. Ask Texas Tech. Oklahoma has an underrated defense — within the Big 12. A late score makes this one deceptively close.
Florida 38, Oklahoma 32. (Give the points.)

TOM TIMMERMANN
I saw a lot more of Oklahoma this year than I did Florida, which has probably colored my thinking that the Sooners are better. I’m counting on Oklahoma’s defense to make the plays needed for the win.
Oklahoma 28, Florida 27

CAMERON HOLLWAY
Tonight’s game is no more a “championship” than Utah-Alabama, USC-Penn State or Texas-Ohio State. Utah is the national champion, and USC, Texas and tonight’s winner belong in the conversation. I picked Oklahoma to be crowned in the preseason, so I’ll have to stick with that pick. The Sooners offensive line might be the best in NCAA history, which gives Sam Bradford the time to pick any defense apart.
Oklahoma 34, Florida 31.

REID LAYMANCE
The Sooners’ only loss this season came against Texas, a team with a gritty QB (Colt McCoy) and a good kick returner (Jordan Shipley). Florida has that and maybe a bit more in Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin.
Florida 35, Oklahoma 33

PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: Everyone’s got a 50-50 chance at getting the above question right. How hard is that? The really challenge was picking the national champion before the season began. Take a look at who our college football writers, columnists and college editor said would win it all in our preseason preview.

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QUESTION TO THE READERS

MACLIN A MIZZOU GREAT? On the eve of Jeremy Maclin announcing his decision between the NFL and staying in school, I got to wondering about where he would rank with all-time Mizzou football greats. I didn’t grow up here so I don’t have a great historical perspective as far as seeing guys play. I know what my eyes tell me about Maclin: He’s an incredibly talented athlete who glides so smoothly while juking opponents it often seems he’s doing it effortlessly. If he goes pro now, does he hurt his legacy among Mizzou greats, or perhaps not even be considered one? Or has he already put himself in the upper-tier in the schools annals? Educate me on this one.

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STAT OF THE DAY

7,354.2 — Career innings pitched by Cy Young, the most in Major League history. That averages out to about 334 innings pitched per season in his 22-year career. Pretty amazing, huh?