THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have two legitimate Cy Young Award candidates in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Assuming at the end of the season the stats stacked up pretty much as they do today, could Wainwright or Carpenter actually win the award or would the two more likely cancel out each other’s votes? Or, would San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum be the clear-cut winner regardless of the two Redbirds’ performances?

A look at how the three match up today in numbers and league rankings (keeping in mind Carp has pitched approximately 40 less innings than the other two):

Chris Carpenter
130.2 inning pitched
Wins: 12 (4th)
ERA: 2.27 (2nd)
Strikeouts: 97 (33rd)

Adam Wainwright
172 innings pitched
Wins: 14 (1st)
ERA: 2.62 (5th)
Strikeouts: 149 (5th)

Tim Lincecum
172.1 innings pitched
Wins: 12 (4th)
ERA: 2.19 (1st)
Strikeouts: 205 (1st)

JOE STRAUSS
There would need to be serious slippage by Lincecum for Carp’ to overtake him, given that Lincecum has amassed his percentages in significantly more starts. Lincecum also has a chance for 270-280 strikeouts, a powerful number. The Giants are not a robust offensive team, and a drag on Lincecum’s win total could create opportunity for Wainwright and Carpenter. Wainwright is in a stronger position because of his durability. He has an outstanding shot at 20 wins. A sub-2.50 ERA, the league lead in wins and innings pitched and a strong September within a pennant race would be compelling. It wouldn’t hurt to mention Dan Haren and Josh Johnson in the discussion as well, along with Matt Cain.

DERRICK GOOLD
Tim Lincecum is the clear-cut leader right now despite impressive candidacies from the Cardinals’ tandem aces. Forget that Lincecum is the incumbent and is arguably pitching better this season than when he won the Cy Young Award last season. The San Francisco Freak leads the league with a 2.19 ERA, he’s within striking distance of the lead in victories, and no one is close to his league-best 205 strikeouts. Those are just the most obvious stats. If things continue at their current pace, Lincecum and Adam Wainwright will jockey for the league lead in innings pitched, and that may be what keeps Chris Carpenter — whose other numbers are equally as dominant as the other two — from elbowing into the top spot on the Cy Young ballot. KTRS/550 AM’s John Marecek had a great stat the other day: Only twice has a starting pitcher thrown fewer than 200 innings and won the Cy Young. Rick Sutcliffe, who was traded during his Cy Young season, and Fernando Valenzuela, who won in a strike-shortened year of 1981. Carpenter is pitching uphill.

RICK HUMMEL
Lincecum wins again as long as he leads in ERA and in strikeouts (he is sure to win that title.) If Wainwright got to 20 wins, he would be a factor. Carpenter missed some six weeks and can’t be considered as strong a candidate because of that fact.

JEFF GORDON
Lincecum’s strikeout total — and Ks per 9 IP — puts him in his own world right now. The kid is dominating. Now, if he falters and Carpenter keeps winning games, the equation changes. Wainwright ranks among the strikeout leaders, but he is way short of Lincecum. Also, Lincecum has the hair thing going for him.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t think there would be a clear cut winner from those three at the moment, and I’d have to throw in Josh Johnson (12-2, 2.85, 140 K) of the Marlins and Matt Cain (12-4, 2.49, 126 K) as well. They’re right there with the other three in every way possible.

In terms of won-loss record, ERA and base runners allowed per 9 innings, these five are almost indistinguishable from one another. In cases like this, I like to see who has been the most “dominant” by looking at strikeouts and opponent batting averages. Lincecum strikes out 10.71 batters per 9 innings and nobody else in this group is even close — Johnson is 2nd best at 7.81 K/9. Lincecum also owns the lowest opponent batting average in the group at .211 and again Johnson is 2nd best at .224.

In what I perceive as a 5-way tie with a month and a half to go, the tiebreakers go to Lincecum.

THE WATERCOOLER:

QUESTION: Should Chris Carpenter be the starter for the NL in the All-Star game? Going into tonight’s game, he is 4-0 with a 0.71 ERA in 38 innings (not enough to qualify for the league leaders). Johan Santana of the Mets is 7-3 and 2.00 and San Francisco’s Matt Cain is 7-1, 2.27.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Obviously, Carpenter needs to stay healthy and roll up enough starts to qualify as the league’s ERA leader. And he must continue to pitch very well to have a shot because there’s no shortage of excellent starting pitchers in the NL. Because Santana (compared to Carpenter) hasn’t missed a start, you’d have to rate him as the top NL pitcher to this point. Santana has won seven games, but in his three losses he’s given up only three earned runs (total). This is shaping up to be a very competitive field. Do not discount the chances of Dan Haren, Johnny Cueto, Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson and Yovani Gallardo. Heck, Jason Marquis leads the NL with eight wins. It’s been an exceptional season so far for NL starting pitchers. And even though Carpenter has that miniscule ERA (0.71) he has some catching up to do because he missed time while on the DL.

RICK HUMMEL:
Not off what he’s done _ yet. Carpenter would have to have seven or eight wins by the time the players, coaches and managers conclude their voting for pitchers later this month. Santana and Lincecum are my choices right now.

DERRICK GOOLD:
If looking for an All-Star Game starter tonight - right this moment - I would lean more toward the pitcher Chris Carpenter opposes tonight than picking Chris Carpenter. Florida’s Josh Johnson has had an impressive and All-Star-worthy season so far, and unlike Carpenter he didn’t miss a hunk of time. It’s absence that really hurts Carpenter’s candidacy as the starter for the All-Star Game. The list of pitchers ahead of him for that honor starts with Johan Santana, includes Johnson, and has Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley near the top, too. Carpenter is pitching like an All-Star, sure, and if he gets that deserved invitation to the game he should be the second pitcher in. That way the hometown crowd gets a hometown battery when Carpenter throws to Yadier Molina.

DAN O’NEILL:
As much as I admire Chris Carpenter as a competitor and talent, there’s no way he should be the starter for the NL in the All-Star Game - unless no one else wants to do it. Often, and rightfully so, All-Star recognition is based, at least in part, on what a player might have done the previous season. Carpenter missed all of last season. Moreover, he has missed quite a bit of the first half of the 2009 season. Coming into Tuesday evening’s start Carpenter had participated in six of the club’s 58 games and 38 of its 527 innings. Granted, they have been All-Star quality contributions. But for me, a player has to be a bit more involved and demonstrate more of a track record than that. It’s basically the same argument as to why Manny Ramirez had no business being considered for the NL Most Valuable Player award last season.

JEFF GORDON:
He has barely pitched for three seasons so, no, he shouldn’t start in the All-Star Game. Albert Pujols will do a fine job as the Cardinals front man for that weekend. Cards fans would love to see him pitch an inning, to honor his persistence on the comeback trail, but that would be plenty. Now, if he keeps winning all season, then we can talk about his Cy Young candidacy. THAT he can win.

GERRY FRALEY:
Sentiment says Randy Johnson should start for the NL. That would recognize his remarkable accomplishment of winning 300 games and also create the possibility of seeing Johnson terrorize a left-handed hitter as he did John Kruk and Larry Walker in previous All-Star appearances. On sheer performance, Santana is the choice. He goes into tonight’s play leading the NL in ERA and has operated with a minute margin of error all season. The Mets have scored three runs or fewer in seven of his 11 starts. Santana’s wins include a pair of 1-0 games and a 2-1 victory. Here’s a vote for having the NL starter work the maximum three innings. Greg Maddux is the last All-Star starter to pitch the maximum three innings, in 1994. The new-face-every-inning approach creates late-game problems that can cause managers to over-extend remaining pitchers.