QUESTION: What kind of credentials do most hitting coaches bring to the job at the major league level? And does Mark McGwire and his .263 lifetime average seem to measure up for such a position?

JOE STRAUSS

The Chicago Cubs just made Rudy Jaramillo the game’s highest-paid hitting coach and its second highest-paid coach of any description. Jaramillo never played above Double-A but is now the longest-tenured hitting coach in the major leagues. His defection from the Texas Rangers was the equivalent to Dave Duncan leaving the Cardinals as pitching coach. There is only a loose connection between major-league success and effectiveness as a hitting coach. Charlie Lau, whose philosophies revolutionized the craft, was a career .255 hitter with 16 home runs in fewer than 1,200 major-league at-bats. Don Mattingly, a borderline Hall of Famer, is recognized for doing strong work with the Los Angeles Dodgers after serving in the same capacity for the New York Yankees. Like McGwire, Mattingly served no apprenticeship in the minor leagues. Greatness as a player does not automatically translate into the ability to recognize flaws and to communicate fixes. The greatest hitter ever, Ted Williams, quickly became frustrated trying to help those less gifted than he. Tony La Russa on Monday described the job as more art than science. The inability to predict makes the Cardinals’ selection of McGwire all the more intriguing.

BERNIE MIKLASZ

What McGwire did as a hitter in the majors is largely irrelevant, especially his batting average. But to gauge McGwire’s intelligence as a hitter, take a look at his on-base percentage and the average number of pitches he took per at-bat. Charlie Lau was considered one of the best hitting coaches in MLB history and as a player he batted .255 in the bigs, with a mediocre .318 OBP and .365 slugging percentage. Another revered hitting coach was Walt Hriniak, who batted .253 in only 111 plate appearances. One of the current hitting coaches who garners rave reviews is Rudy Jaramillo, who was just signed to a $2 million deal by the Cubs. He never played in the majors and hit .258 in the minors. Terry Pendleton and Don Mattingly are among the former players who became MLB batting coaches with no coaching time in the minors.

McGwire was a smart hitter in the second half of his career; his cerebral approach was an important part of his success. And his work ethic and dedication as a hitter was underrated. But what is his hitting philosophy? Does it fit all hitters, from the power guys to the singles hitters? Can he communicate the philosophy in a simple way? Can he repair a hitter’s mechanical flaws? Can he connect in a way that will reach and lift a struggling hitter’s confidence? McGwire has been praised for his 1-on-1 work with hitters but how will he deal with a roster of position players — 14 or 15 hitters — at the same time? These are all legit questions, and obviously manager Tony La Russa believes that McGwire has the right combination of hitting intellect and people skills. We’ll see.

JEFF GORDON

Intuitively, you would expect a hitter who used all the fields (like Hal McRae) would offer more than a dead pull hitter (like Mark McGwire). But Big Mac is something of a freak when it comes to mental preparation, concentration at the plate and mastery of the strike zone. With an OPS exceeding 1.000 during his Cards heyday, McGwire became one of the toughest outs in baseball. Even without his intentional walks, his latter-day OPS was very good in St. Louis. If some of this can rub off on guys like Ryan Ludwick, great.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)

There is no such thing as a “set of credentials” that a hitting coach can bring to the table. Their backgrounds are varied and there is no “path” to becoming a successful hitting instructor, no prerequisites that prove whether or not an individual will be good at the job. Some of the best hitting instructors of all time were mediocre hitters during their playing days, some of the worst had what would seem to be perfect pedigrees.

I believe McGwire will be a good hitting instructor for two reasons: because hitting is his passion in life and because he values preparation, much like Dave Duncan does when it comes to pitching.

What McGwire was really good at as a hitter was working counts in his favor so he could do what he did best…hit the ball over the fence. His career average may have been low but his on-base percentage was .394 and he hit a home run every 10.6 at-bats. In other words, he knew how to play to his own strength. That’s what he’ll be asked to do for the Cardinals hitters: refine their approaches and identify the occasional glitch so they, too, can emphasize their strengths at the plate. Plus, he’ll know when to leave well enough (read: Albert Pujols) alone.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: If Kyle Lohse can replicate the success he had in Houston Monday night over his next few appearances, what do you think the deciding factors will be for Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan in choosing between Lohse and John Smoltz as the Cardinals’ fourth starter in the playoffs?

RICK HUMMEL
One factor is that Smoltz probably could revert to short relief, having been used in that role before. Lohse probably would need too much time to warm up to do that. The Cardinals are paying Lohse $41 million for four years to be one of their top starters. If he has two decent games between now and the end of the season, the starting job for the playoffs (at least the first round) is probably his although knowing manager La Russa, he may not announce his fourth-game starter until a day before the game. If then.

DERRICK GOOLD
Versatilility and durability will likely be the two traits that guide their hand. John Smoltz has the much better resume and deeper experience as a reliever — Kyle Lohse had a turn in the ’pen with Philadelphia back in 2007 — but Smoltz’s shoulder and how much he could be used in a short series is an unknown. Starting every five (plus) days is a different grind than pitching three out of four games. He’s confident that his shoulder can handle whatever role he lands. Late Wednesday night after his start in Houston, Smoltz said his “ego isn’t so big that I won’t accept whatever they want me to do. I know that it’s the playoffs and anything can happen, so you can be used in any way.” Lohse has to duplicate his success from Monday’s start and show the consistency he had in 2008 and this past April. He also has to show stamina and strength, otherwise this question is academic. Some see Lohse as the more natural fit in the No. 4 spot because of Smoltz’s seasoning as a shutdown reliever. If Lohse is healthy, the Cardinals seem ready to assume he’ll be effective in October, just as Tony La Russa said he’s comfortable banking on both pitchers being ready for either job once the playoffs arrive — even if that’s when the team decides.

JEFF GORDON
Smoltz’s vast bullpen experience would make him extra valuable in the bullpen. Unlike the fourth starter, he could be a factor in the first series. So if Lohse looks capable of filling the fourth spot — as he did in his last time out — that would allow the Cards to put Smoltz in position to strengthen the pen. If Lohse goes to the pen instead, he would offer nothing more than an innings eater. The Cards have other choices there.

GERRY FRALEY
The bullpen must be considered in this discussion. This is Ryan Franklin’s first full season as the closer. The job is more draining physically than it is mentally. If the Cardinals decide Franklin needs help to get through the playoffs, Smoltz is the likely choice. The innings he is getting as a starter are preparing him to be a reliever. Even if Franklin is hale and hearty, the bullpen could use an extra arm. Relievers are more important in the post-season because the fatigue factor has set in with starters. Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel considered Lohse to be his”secret weapon’’ as a reliever in the 2007 playoffs. That did not work out so well. In his only appearance, Lohse allowed Kaz Matsui’s grand slam that sent Colorado to a comeback victory.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given Todd Wellemeyer’s recent run of poor starts, what are the Cardinals’ best options concerning a fifth starter as they move forward?

JOE STRAUSS
The path of least resistence would be to give Wellemeyer Friday’s start against the Houston Astros before re-setting the rotation following Monday’s day off in New York. That said, organizational patience with Wellemeyer’s inconsistency may have been exhausted in his last three outings, including a poor showing in relief against the Cubs before the break.

Blake Hawksworth is in the house. He had been pitching well in Memphis — his last Triple-A start was a 7-inning, 1-hit outing in which he received no decision — and could easily be aligned for Friday’s outing. Brad Thompson also started in place of Kyle Lohse when Lohse was on the DL. PJ Walters struck out 14 in this weekend’s start in New Orleans, but his style of pitching has yet to win backers within the major-league clubhouse. Mitchell Boggs also has improved recently, though his propensity to work in and out of trouble spooks pitching coach Dave Duncan.

GM John Mozeliak remains attuned to the trade market, though finding low-cost help for the rotation (Ian Snell?) is difficult at this time of year.

Something will be done, perhaps as early as this afternoon. But the answer remains elusive.
Barring trade, the best option may be reversing roles between Thompson/Hawksworth and Wellemeyer. Most would agree, however, that represents only a temporary fix.

RICK HUMMEL
For one more start, Friday vs. Houston here, Wellemeyer is the best option. After that, the Cardinals won’t need a fifth starter for about 10 days. Then the landscape might change.

GERRY FRALEY
The fifth-starter situation calls for bargain shopping. The biggest bargain out there may be Arizona lefthander Doug Davis. He is only 5-10 but has a 3.75 ERA for a team that gave up weeks ago. Arizona’s bullpen has three blown saves behind Davis, and the offense has scored two runs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts. The drawbacks are Davis’ slow pace and high walks rate: 4.5 per nine innings. When it comes to a fifth starter, flaws should be expected.

In this search, the Cardinals will be better served looking outside the organization. The minor-league arms tried so far have been found lacking. A pennant race is no place for an overmatched kid.

BRYAN BURWELL
I think in the very short term the way the schedule sets up, La Russa could resort to a modified four-man rotation. In the long term, the club could resort to bullpen games.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Todd Wellemeyer, the most inconsistent of the Cardinals’ five starters, goes tonight in Houston against the Astros. He has averaged barely 5 innings per start and has lost three of his past five decisions. How important is tonight’s start?

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Not very. Dave Duncan is obviously committed to Wellemeyer. And Tony La Russa and Duncan obviously have little faith in alternative candidates from the system, pitchers such as Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth or Clayton Mortensen. Perhaps a test case will surface when (and if) Jaime Garcia is ready to pitch.

BRYAN BURWELL:
Wellemeyer has to know that the leash is getting extremely short at this point, particularly because of the way the schedule is laid out. La Russa could decide to go with a four-man rotation if Wellemeyer produces another clunker and who could blame him.

JOE STRAUSS:
Organizational patience with him appears to be wearing thin. In his next two starts, he needs to show more of the pitcher of last year, and not the lost cause that many have suspected he has become.

RICK HUMMEL:
The way I see it, Todd Wellemeyer has three more starts in which to prove himself, i.e. show he deserves to stay in the rotation. But after the third one of those, July 31 against Houston, the Cardinals have two off days in the next week and they wouldn’t have to use him anyway until about Aug. 12.

DERRICK GOOLD:
The start isn’t as pivotal for Wellemeyer as it is for the Cardinals in this series. I spoke with several people yesterday around the Cardinals and all refuted the idea that Wellemeyer was on game-to-game probation as a member of the rotation. The biggest reason: There isn’t a pitcher pushing to replace him. As manager Tony La Russa said, Wellemeyer knows he’s their best option and is pitching now so that he’s not “vulnerable” when they do have an alternative. That said, Wellemeyer’s start represents the tipping point of this series. Monday was the night the Cardinals had the pitching edge, with Wandy Rodriguez and his home success going tonight for Houston and the duel of aces — Roy Oswalt vs. Chris Carpenter — coming tomorrow. The pitching lined up such that the Cardinals could count on Carpenter to pitch for the series win Wednesday. Instead, a loss Monday means Wellemeyer must perform tonight so that Oswalt isn’t throwing for a series sweep.

JEFF GORDON:
You never get the sense that Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan will never take him out of the rotation. They certainly want no part of starting, say, Blake Hawksworth in that spot. But general manager John Mozeliak has enough chips to acquire a No. 5-type starter and he could force a change. Wellemeyer looked so hopelessly lost his last two times out that another horrid start would force Mozeliak to intensify his trade talks.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: With Tony La Russa mixing and matching his lineup daily to fill holes, the Cardinals have continued to play well enough to hold down first place in the NL Central. Does this team’s current success rate work against them in terms of the ownership/front office’s willingness to make a trade and/or take on salary to address some of the team’s more glaring needs?

RICK HUMMEL
To a degree, yes, but I think GM John Mozeliak and ownership realize that the Cardinals pitching can take them only so far and that a bona fide third baseman, and to a lesser degree, shortstop, is needed. The club might well be more concerned with the cost of players to give up in a trade rather than actual money.

DERRICK GOOLD
The question assumes that there is a circumstance that the Cardinals front office would be willing to take on salary and address needs, and that isn’t necessarily the case. The Cardinals have said they want to rely more heavily on their farm system. Check. The Cardinals have said they are working within a budget that is linked to attendance estimates and that the economy has forced their expenses to be reduced. Check. The Cardinals have said they want to be in position to strengthen this team. Check back on that.

In the big-swapping days of yore the Cardinals could land big-name help by swallowing unsavory salaries in exchange for warm bodies. Those deals don’t happen all that often any more, and the Cardinals say they aren’t in a position to shoulder an enormous salary. That leaves them with the new-age deals where other teams want pitching prospects, pitching and prospects in that order. The Cardinals may be willing to make a deal, but the bigger question is are they able to … do they have what Tony La Russa calls “chips.” If anything the team’s success gives the front office the cover for what they planned to do all along and proof, if they look at the standings, that their approach has worked so far.

BRYAN BURWELL
Only an ownership bogged down by complacency would view the two-month long success as a disincentive to make a trade. If you are about the business of winning championships, which this franchise has always been, you should take this as motivation to increase your chances of being a playoff worthy team.

GERRY FRALEY (Baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
La Russa and his coaching staff have been a victim of their own success with the Cardinals. During La Russa’s time, the Cardinals have milked far more production than could have been expected from a collection of recycled players. That apparently has convinced ownership that there is no need to make a big gesture. Just find another broken-down arm for pitching coach Dave Duncan to fix or another slumping hitter for batting coach Hal McRae to revive.

That alchemy works only so long. The National League Central is there for the taking. Ownership is entitled to make a tidy profit, but this is a case where a significant but wise investment could bring a big return. Think of it as bread upon the waters.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I would certainly hope not since that would mean upper management didn’t learn from the 2008 season. On May 28, 2008 the Cardinals were 31-23 and a game and half behind the Cubs in the NL Central. By the end of the season, after not receiving the reinforcements Tony La Russa openly asked for, they were 11 1/2 games behind the Cubs and in 4th place in the division.

La Russa can squeeze water from a stone with certain players but over the course of 162 games that isn’t always enough. Building depth in the farm system is necessary, for sure, but when you have a chance to win you need to make every effort to do so. You never know from year to year whether or not you’ll be a contender because of all the variables involved, but you do know with absolute certainty that each year you’ll get a chance to add to your farm system through the draft and international free agency.

This year that sense of urgency should be even greater since La Russa’s contract is up after the season. It would be wise for the Cards to make every effort to win while they know they have a manager who can get the job done.

THE WATERCOOLER

SOMETHING TO PONDER

KYLE LOHSE:
• Lohse arrived with the Cardinals in March 2008 with a career 63-74 record and 4.82 ERA.
• After going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008, the righty was rewarded with a new four-year contract with the Cards.
• Heading into Monday’s game with Philly, Lohse was 3-0 with 1.97 ERA this season. After being hit by a pitch in the left elbow in the third inning Monday, Lohse surrendered six earned runs thereafter. The loss to Philly left Lohse at 3-1 with a 3.22 ERA.

RYAN LUDWICK:
• Prior to 2008, Ludwick had never received more than 303 at-bats in any big league season.
• Ludwick broke out in ’08 hitting 37 HRs with 113 RBI and a .299 average in 538 at-bats.
• Ludwick has started the ’09 season by cranking 6 HRs with 21 RBI and a .282 average in 85 at-bats.

QUESTION: Seeing as how Lohse and Ludwick both had career years in 2008, which player’s performance would you maybe have expected to see drop off a little this season? And is there any reason to believe now, assuming health, that both of these guys can’t reproduce or perhaps even exceed their numbers from 2008?

RICK HUMMEL
Lohse would seem to have the better chance of replicating or improving his season because his 15-win total was relatively modest, compared to Ludwick’s 37 homers and 113 runs batted in. Pitchers can adjust to Ludwick a little better this year now that he has established himself as an everyday threat, although I can see him hitting 25 to 28 homers and driving in 90 to 95 runs. Lohse could win more than 15 games for the simple reason that the Cardinals likely are better than they were last year.

JEFF GORDON
To me, Lohse is more likely to have staying power. He has always had pretty good stuff. He has thrown a lot of big league ball. He was an ideal project for Dave Duncan. That is why the team committed big, long-term money to him. Ludwick, on the other hand, had a more unfortunate injury history and a thin track record at this level. Baseball is a game of adjustments and Lohse had been through the mill year after year. Ludwick is still adapting to life as a Silver Slugger-caliber hitter. If he does it again in 2009, then perhaps he can get the sort of long-term love the franchise gave Lohse.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Ludwick is on an upward career arc. He was productive for 303 at-bats in 2007 and better when the at-bats increased to 538 last season. Until Ludwick proves otherwise, there is no reason to think he cannot continue.

Lohse is much harder to reach. His career path looks like the chart of a fever, with highs and lows in rapid succession. He had consecutive winning seasons with Minnesota in 2002-03 only to follow them with 3 1/2 frustrating seasons. Lohse is on an uptick again, going 22-7 in his last 51 games.

A pitcher can control only his performances. Decisions hinge on other factors such as the offense. Lohse could pitch as well as he did last season and not be as productive. Ludwick alone can determine his progress. For that reason, Lohse is more likely to fall off than Ludwick, but that is not a given. Lohse just needs more things to fall his way than Ludwick does.

TOM ACKERMAN (Sports anchor of “Total Information A.M.” on KMOX)
It would seem to me that Ludwick would have a tougher time exceeding his ’08 numbers. Cranking out another season of at least .299-37-113 would be asking a lot, especially when pitchers have had more time to identify Ludwick’s hot and cold zones. Lohse, on the other hand, is an experienced veteran who has discovered how to be more efficient — thanks to Dave Duncan. Coming into last night, he’d allowed only one HR this season before Werth and Howard took him deep. I think it’s more reasonable to believe Lohse can achieve 15 wins again — and perhaps even a slightly better ERA in ’09 — as long as he avoids the long ball.

THE WATERCOOLER

SCENARIO: A major league club opens the season with a pared-down payroll following an offseason in search of “low-hanging fruit” for free agent help. The club’s 99-RBI third baseman from a year ago is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Its former Cy Young-winning pitcher, whom the club said was vital to the success of the rotation this year, is already on the DL again. The team’s defense has committed 19 errors through 20 games. And the club’s manager is shuffling his lineup more than a blackjack dealer to find the right matchups. Through all of this the club finds itself at 14-6 through 20 games and sitting atop the NL Central. That club is the 2009 Cardinals.

QUESTION: Given all these obstacles, and perhaps a few more not mentioned, what do you think is the key to success the Cardinals have had so far this year and is there reason to believe they can sustain a pace anywhere near this?

JOE STRAUSS
Without a doubt the longest question in the history of Round 2. That said, the key to date is the stability of the offensive core, the rotation’s early effectiveness and the bullpen’s solid performance when allowed to pitch in role. (We’ll give the defense a break today.) The take here remains much as it was entering the season: Minus Troy Glaus, the Cardinals will remain solid if their 20 best players remain available. The loss of Chris Carpenter is significant but won’t become magnified unless further attrition occurs. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are experiencing what the Cardinals cannot afford as Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol are all compromised. So far, this season represents a (near) best-case scenario for the Redbirds.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
This will be my shortest answer ever: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Period. Despite the insane, inexplicable hatred that a faction of bizarre, hopelessly bitter fans have for the manager and pitching coach. Can the Cardinals keep it up? Down to the wire, yes. They’ll be in the hunt in September. And that’s the goal.

DERRICK GOOLD
You mean besides the obvious two-word answer: Albert Pujols? The fuel for the Cardinals’ quick start is offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Cardinals led the league in batting average and were fourth in runs scored, yet this year’s lineup is deeper and has the chance to be better because the production won’t be isolated around the island of Pujols-Ludwick. The Cardinals’ hitting this April has papered-over serious concerns, like the innings the starters are leaving for the work-in-progress bullpen to swallow and the errors that force those same pitchers to pitch around. Even an offense powered by Pujols cannot keep up this current pace. Those flaws will come out.

So the starters have to go deeper into games if the Cardinals are going to remain atop the NL Central, and the defense cannot give away outs to make going deeper into games more difficult. The absence of Chris Carpenter is enough of a challenge for the rotation and bullpen to overcome.

Can the Cardinals keep up this winning percentage? No. Can they slow down and still win the NL Central? It’s bad form to back off preseason predictions (especially three weeks in), so I’ll stick with the answer I gave for the preview section. … Sure. Sure, they can.

RICK HUMMEL
The keys, in no particular order, have been the comeback of Joel Pineiro (4-0), who didn’t win his fourth game until August last year; the emergence of Ryan Franklin from a tangled bullpen as the closer; the insight and, even daring, of manager Tony La Russa to find the right daily combinations in the outfield and at third base; the ability of catcher Yadier Molina and the pitchers to absolutely nullify the opposition’s running game. . . and, of course, Albert Pujols. Nobody else has a player like that and anybody who does will always be a contender. Will the Cardinals play .700 ball? No. Could they win 90 or more games? Yes. Will they? I thought 90 before the season, so I’ll stay with that.

JEFF GORDON
There are three keys to the Cards success:

1) The much-maligned Cards managed investing in pitching, extending Kyle Lohse’s deal a year after doing the same for Joel Pineiro. These two are helping offset Carpenter’s injury. John Mozeliak responded to his bullpen deficiency by buying free agent Dennys Reyes during spring training.

2) The player development is paying off. Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs are helping the home-grown Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan and Chris Duncan get the job done.

3) Once again, the team located scrappy, handy utility players in Brian Barden and Joe Thurston.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is blessed with two outstanding coaches in vital positions.

The good work of pitching coach Dave Duncan is well-chronicled. Duncan knows how to get through to distressed pitchers and make them embrace his pitch-to-contact philosophy. This staff will not light up the radar guns, but it will get ground-ball outs.

Batting coach Hal McRae is equally good in his field. He teaches his hitters to use the entire field rather than trying to pull every pitch. A National League scout at last weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs said McRae’s hitters are unusual in that they can drive the ball to the opposite field. When most hitters use the opposite field, the scout said, they lob the ball for singles. The Cardinals get extra-base hits to the opposite field. They go into tonight’s game leading the National League in average at .296, slugging percentage at .476 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at .854.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Todd Wellemeyer pitched 191 innings last season, more than double the number of innings he’d ever pitched at the major league level. He went 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA, exceeding most expectations. Do you see the innings load becoming a problem for Wellemeyer, or should he only get stronger in his second season as a full-time starter?

JOE STRAUSS
Wellemeyer missed a start last June with an elbow impingement, making his 191 innings even more impressive. Barring a recurrence of elbow problems, 190 innings is certainly realistic. He continues to improve his curveball. This is his walk year entering free agency. Plenty of reasons to expect a solid second act.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Wellemeyer had to go on the DL with an inflamed elbow in 2007, after he’d been converted to starter. Last season he avoided the DL, but did have minor elbow problems, and he was held out of the rotation for a couple of turns in June. The elbow may have bothered him some in July, when Wellemeyer had an ERA of 5.88 in six starts. But he finished strong. I was surprised that Wellemeyer overcame the issue as well as he did; he had a 3.01 ERA and allowed a batting average of .234 over his final 13 starts.

Has he learned to pace himself instead of maxing out on every pitch? That’s the question. Either way, I think the Cardinals will manage Wellemeyer well enough to keep him reasonably healthy. They have to be prudent. Last year I believe Wellemeyer pitched a couple of times when he was less than fully sound, and in one of those starts he took a horrific beatdown from the Phillies at Busch Stadium on June 13. After that, he didn’t pitch again for two weeks. That was smart. And I think the Cardinals will be more careful in 2009. If so, he should be fine.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the accepted rules of thumb when it comes to pitchers is they break down the year after a career-push of innings. A notable exception: Braden Looper. After the making the leap into the rotation in 2007 the career reliever threw 199 innings in 2008. He didn’t have the lag expected and pitched not only stronger but better. In many ways, Wellemeyer is Looper. Strong. Durable frame. He’s conditioned now as a starter. The evidence sayS Wellemeyer will have trouble the year after packing on the innings. The eye says Wellemeyer will pull a Looper.

RICK HUMMEL
Not having pitched many innings earlier in his career actually should benefit Wellemeyer, who is strong enough to handle a big workload. If he pitches well, he should make 200 innings. If he doesn’t, he still gets $4 million, but doesn’t get 200 innings.

JEFF GORDON
I believe he can be the same type of pitcher he was last year. He is a big, strong guy. In the past, he hurt himself by overthrowing against top hitters. Dave Duncan has convinced him to pace himself, throw with less velocity and concern himself more with movement and pitch location. That new approach ought to keep him on the mound.