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06.26.2009 1:55 pm

How many wins will it take to capture NL Central?

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.

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12.10.2008 1:48 pm

The Yankees and the others

THE WATERCOOLER

(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: Did the Yankees overspend for CC Sabathia?

RICK HUMMEL
For anybody else, I would say yes. The Yankees, no. With a new ballpark and huge ticket prices (they will be sold out every game), the Yankees have almost unlimited resources. They also haven’t been to the World Series since 2003 and haven’t won it since 2000. And what better way to move the Mets and K-Rod off the back pages than to sign CC?

DERRICK GOOLD
Yes. But when has that ever stopped them? It’s like Atlanta manager Bobby Cox said here Monday: “You’ve got to do what you’ve got to do.” That’s what the Yankees had to do.

BRYAN BURWELL
The Yanks probably did overspend on him, but when you’re basically negotiating against yourself, that usually happens. But here’s the bigger puzzle with the Sabathia deal. Does he really want to be in NY in the first place or is he only going because the money is so overwhelming? By all indications, that extra year at $20 million seems to be a NYC usage tax (he clearly was reluctant to go there and that extra money and length of contract was what it took to get him to sign). And that puts him in a delicate competitive predicament with Yankee fans, who are harsh and overly demanding anyway. It’s no exageration (well, a slight one) to believe that Sabathia will be expected by Yankee fans to produce nothing less than three Cy Youngs, three World Series rings and a couple World Series MVPs. I just hope he has the guts to deal with the ridiculous expectations that come with playing in the city. Not everyone can handle it.

JEFF GORDON
Yes, the Yankees overspent for Sabathia. The franchise can afford to overspend, but that doesn’t make it smart. CC is the ultimate workhorse, but he does NOT bring New York a classic shutdown postseason starter. New York could have purchased a couple of other high-end hurlers for that same price. And imagine what $161 million over seven years would yield through the traditional means of team building. For that kind of money, a franchise could clean up in Latin America and grab one of the Scott Boras pitching studs in each amateur draft (they usually drop to the big spenders). That money could allow a franchise to build the best-ever scouting network and flood its minor-league system with elite instructors.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

MARQUIS JAMMING UP MARQUEE DEAL: According to a report in the San Diego Union-Tribune, former-Cardinal and current-Cubs pitcher Jason Marquis might be part of the holdup in the Cubs getting Jake Peavy from the Padres. Marquis, who has been on the trade block for weeks, “has been the hangup” to getting the Peavy talks moving, the paper reports. The Padres want the Cubs to pay more than half of Marquis’ salary if they take him. Other clubs also are asking for a large discount.

Imagine that, Marquis finally doing something to help the Cardinals.

IT COULD BE WORSE: As Cardinal fans wait … and wait … and wait to see what GM John Mozeliak is able to get done at this week’s winter meetings, just remember that it could be worse. You could be a Brewers fan. Not only did the Brewers lose Sabathia to the Yankees via free agency, but they are likely to see the longtime pitching face of the club, Ben Sheets, walk away soon, too. That’s a heavy hit for any rotation. And the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that the Yankees signing of Sabathia was the ulimate rude awakening for Brewers GM Doug Melvin.

I guess the Brewers got what they wanted out of their short-term “rental” of Sabathia — a playoff appearance. But for that brief postseason appearance the Brewers dealt über-prospect Matt LaPorta (coming to a Major League outfield near you soon) to Cleveland along with three other minor leaguers. On the flipside, as Class A free agents, Sabathia and Sheets will net the Brewers two high picks next June after they’ve both signed with other clubs. So there is that.

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A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

IF A TREE FALLS IN THE FOREST … If the Rams final two home games of the season (vs. Seattle Sunday and San Francisco Dec. 21) are blacked-out on TV because of an abundance of tickets remaining, will anyone notice? I don’t know how anyone can blame fans for not buying tickets. I’ve been to almost every home game this season and with the team often trailing by huge margins by halftime, the environment is miserable. And I’m getting paid to be there.

THE STEEN MACHINE: Folks let me know yesterday that they thought I was a little premature in judging Blues acquisition Alex Steen. Per my expectations, many of you correctly reminded me that Brad Boyes didn’t exactly burn it up upon his arrival with the Blues either. But that’s worked out OK. Then Tom Timmermann does an excellent piece on Steen in this morning’s paper that points out that the kid definitely has skills, but perhaps he just needs time to find his niche with his new team. Taking all of that into account, I’m calling myself out and taking a wait-and-see approach. And if he starts to light the lamp with some regularity at any point this season, feel free to remind me not to be so quick to pass judgment next time.

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STAT OF THE DAY

5.4 — That’s the yards-per-carry through 13 games this season for Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams. Questioned as an every-down back while splitting carries with DeShaun Foster the past two seasons, and still overlooked among the games’s elite runners, Williams has carried the ball 213 times for 1,144 yards and 13 TDs. For good measure, he’s tacked on two TDs receiving also. The scary thing is imagining Williams numbers if his teammate, rookie running back Jonathan Stewart, hadn’t siphoned off 141 carries (to the tune of 5.0 YPC and 8 TDs.)

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