MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

GAUGING THE MARKET: As many in Cardinals National have been screeching about the team’s relative inactivity in the free agent market this offseason, others have started to voice a dissenting viewpoint, pointing out there are still many good free agents out there that may be scooped up later at cheaper prices.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the market for free agents is shaping up in the dissenters’ favor. In a blog today, Olney says: “It is evident that a lot of veteran players are coming to grips with the reality that there isn’t a lot of cash available for the middle class of players this winter. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe fared well, but the dropoff, after that, gets steeper by the day.” He cites former Cardinal David Eckstein as the latest example. Eckstein earned $4.5 million with the Blue Jays last season, but just Thursday signed an $850,000 contract to play for the Padres this season.

This is not a free pass for the Cardinals to sit on their wallets, but perhaps general manager John Mozeliak has a much better read on this than the average fan. Afterall, he is being paid to be a big league GM.

And in case you missed it, Derrick Goold put together a complete lineup of all-stars that are now available on the free agent market. Take a look at his team in the Birdland Blog and convince me there’s not still plenty of options available. With no one clammering to snatch up these guys now, why not wait awhile until the clearance sale begins?

ON THE OTHER HAND: The Chicago Cubs apparently are not subscribing to the wait-and-see approach in free agency. And while the Cards are working on developing homegrown talent, the Cubs seem to be going in the other direction. In fact, the Chicago Sun Times reported today that, “On Opening Day 2009, only shortstop Ryan Theriot and catcher Geovany Soto figure to be true homegrown players in the Cubs’ starting lineup. That’s not a bad thing, either. The Cubs are spending money the way a big-market team should be, sprinkling in a few of their own along the way.”

One of those that won’t be sprinkled in is former super-prospect Felix Pie. The Cubs have loaded up in the outfield and it looks like this once-can’t-miss prospect will be shipped out.

ASK HIM YOURSELF: You can ask Mozeliak about how this team is shaping up and why he’s doing things the way he is next week when we host a live chat with the Cardinals general manager. Check in with him at 1 p.m. next Wednesday at STLtoday.com.

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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Do you think the Cardinals will top 3 million in attendance this summer?

JOE STRAUSS
While the economic angst is very appropriate, I believe the Cardinals will continue to receive strong support. I do think the economic climate makes them more vulnerable to a dramatic loss of walk-up sales should the team tank. Barring a meltdown season, I place the attendance over/under at 3.25 million.

DERRICK GOOLD
Selling 3 million tickets is different than drawing 3 million fans. I imagine the Cardinals will clear 3 million in tickets sales for the 11th time in 12 years, and they probably will inch past their budget-target of 3.2 million, even in this wicked economy. But the turnstile will have a different view. For the first time since the opening of the ballpark all of those tough sells — those Tuesday nights vs. Pittsburgh, for example — will really look the part. Empty seats. Empty boxes. No lines for garlic fries and red licorice. The same volunteers each night for the fifth-inning dance off. While the All-Star Game is a heck of an insurance policy for ticket sales, it won’t put red-clad butts in those red-painted seats when August comes unless the team is worth watching.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll make three million if they start fast. If they’re not contending or interesting in April and early May, it won’t happen.

JEFF GORDON
Despite the terrible economy, I believe the Cards can still draw 3 million if they contend. And I believe they will contend in ’09, despite all the current naysaying. This team may have to do some ticket discounting on the fly, as the Blues have, but the team should get that number. It helps that the Rams have tanked and the Blues are struggling, too. More than ever, this is Cardinal Nation. Fans will quit a number of vices before they get to baseball.

TOM TIMMERMANN
I don’t think so. Even if the team was championship worthy, I think it would be a tough sell this summer. People are going to pull a DeWitt and play it close to the vest with their money. They’ll sit back, pop open a beer and listen to Dan and Al. Or Mike and John. Or read Joe and Derrick and Rick, though hopefully not drinking a beer over the morning paper.

MIKE SMITH
Signs of the times: The Smith family probably will have to dump its annual $5,500 contribution to DeWitt Care for two seats out in left field. And fan grousing seems to be at an unprecedented level for the 29 years I’ve worked in the P-D sports department. Still … if the Cards find a second baseman who at least looks like he wants to be on the field, then put their best lineup out there and ACTUALLY LEAVE IT OUT THERE more than one or two days a week (“Leading off and playing left field, Joe Thurston!”), you’ve got the makings of a season that could attract 3 million fans.

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THINGS TO PONDER

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO: USC coach Pete Carroll got blistered today by L.A. Times columnist Bill Plaschke for how he’s handled the news that QB Mark Sanchez will enter the NFL draft early. Sanchez has already received his bachelor’s degree, and even though he has one year of eligibility remaining, the fact that he is ranked among the 10 best players in this year’s draft made the lure of the NFL just too much. Plaschke says Carroll handled Sanchez’s decision “with all the decorum of a jilted lover.”

Is it about the kid or is it about winning, Pete?

OK, THIS IS ONLY A JOKE: It’s a well-known fact that former NFL quarterback Archie Manning sired the last two Super Bowl winning QBs — Peyton and Eli Manning. But according to the satirical magazine The Onion, Archie may not yet be out of the running for a third consecutive Super Bowl in his family, even though Peyton’s Colts and Eli’s Giants have been eliminated from the playoffs. “Donovan McNabb Is Also My Son,” reads the headline. Check it out.

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NOW THAT’S SAYING SOMETHING

“During my 18 years I came to bat almost 10,000 times. I struck out about 1,700 times and walked maybe 1,800 times. You figure a ballplayer will average about 500 at bats a season. That means I played seven years without ever hitting the ball.”
— Mickey Mantle

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Chase Daniel will play in two college All-Star games in the next couple weeks (the East-West game and the Senior Bowl.) Is Daniel an NFL prospect already, or will his performance in these games determine whether or not he’s selected in the NFL draft in April?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Despite completing about 75 percent of his passes this season, Daniel’s tendency to turn the ball over and apparent happy feet through much of the second half of the season leaves him needing a profile boost — especially since his profile only is about 5-11. His performance in those games will matter, as will further scrutiny by NFL teams.

BRYAN BURWELL
Daniel’s NFL appeal suffered greatly this season and he’ll need strong workouts during practice weeks building up to those games as well as decent shows in the all-star games to revive his draft appeal.

JEFF GORDON
Actually, how Daniel practices will say a lot about his draft status. That may help (or hurt) him more than the games. Scouts will be all over the scene, watching each session closely. How will Chase perform outside of the spread offense? The revelation of his late-season thumb injury will help his case, since scouts noticed his inability to throw the ball downfield with much authority in the Big 12 Championship Game and the Alamo Bowl. Daniel can’t get any taller between now and the draft, but he CAN change perceptions about his passing ability. Can he throw the ball into the small windows of NFL defenses? And can he make those throws as a drop-back passer? The coming practice sessions will say a lot.

STU DURANDO
Daniel’s stock clearly dropped as the season progressed and it’s tough to find anyone who ranks him among the top 10 quarterbacks for the draft. I read one well-researched analysis that listed him No. 25. Sometimes good college players just don’t translate into NFL prospects. At this point, I think he’s just trying to play himself back into the draft. I would hope his performances in the all-star games don’t have any impact on his status.

DAN O’NEILL
I think what will be a determining factor is how many times the camera crews at those games focus on the Daniel family in the stands. If it is as often as they did during the waning moments of the Alamo Bowl, his chances of becoming an NFL prospect will not be greatly increased, but his chances of getting a new sitcom — “Meet the Daniels” — will be improved dramatically. As far as improving his NFL prospect status, I only see that happening if he is going to play tailback in the games. He had a great career as a college quarterback, but where Daniel’s chances of being an NFL quarterback are concerned, two words, sung in A-minor flat: “Ohhh Canada.”

TOM TIMMERMANN
The prototype college quarterback and the prototype NFL quarterback are two very different things. Daniel is a good college quarterback who can run, but that doesn’t always translate into NFL success. He’ll need to show he can excel in an NFL-type offense and not the spread. The all-star games will be the first steps for that. I think he’ll get drafted, but these all-star games will determine how high.

KATHLEEN NELSON
He can help himself a lot. A pack of his most vocal critics call Daniel a system quarterback. Perhaps he can prove otherwise by working with unfamiliar personnel outside Missouri’s version of the spread offense.

BILL COATS
He’s a prospect already. Daniel might not have all the “measurables” that NFL scouts like, but intangibles such as his leadership and competitiveness will earn him a shot. I’d guess he’s a middle-round pick.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

THE COLTS AND THEIR COACH: So you’ve got an NFL team that has been to the playoffs seven straight seasons, won five the last six AFC South titles and won at least 12 games in six consecutive seasons. And you’ve just lost a big-time, big-name coach in Tony Dungy. So who do the Indianapolis Colts put in charge? Well it was pre-ordained that Dungy’s longtime assistant Jim Caldwell would take over when Dungy left. That transition has now transpired. And one of the most potent teams in the NFL in recent years is now being run by a man who’s only head coaching experience consists of 26-63 record coaching Wake Forest.

Huh, I don’t get it. But it appears the folks in Indianapolis are buying it. Here’s what Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star had to say: “No, he’s not a sexy choice. … He’s not a Mike Shanahan or a Bill Cowher or a Marty Schottenheimer, not a choice who demands big, brassy headlines. But for the Indianapolis Colts, who said goodbye to a giant as coach Monday, Caldwell is the right choice at the right time.”

It’s hard to imagine the Colts not having success given the talent they’ve got, but it all starts with the head coach. We’ll see how Caldwell holds up a couple years down the line when the team begins to take on his identity.

ANAHEIM THROWS IN THE TOWEL: It appears the city of Anaheim is giving up its legal challenge against the Los Angeles Angels … formerly known as the Anaheim Angels. Can you believe it’s been four years already since new owner Arte Moreno made the marketing move that rocked the city of Anaheim and robbed the good citizens there of that civic pride? It also cost those citizens $4 million in legal fees fighting the name change in court.

Well, I guess the people of Anaheim could recoup some of that money and stick it to the man by not attending the Angels games anymore. It’s similar to what many Cardinal fans are threatening to do this offseason due to a lack of movement in the free agent market. But here’s what I’m guessing: With a powerhouse team like the Angels and a historically devoted fan base like the Cardinals have, neither team will have much trouble putting fannies in the seats … regardless of the public outrage.

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THINGS TO PONDER

HOW ’BOUT THEM COWBOYS: Former Cowboys wide receiver and current television commentator Michael Irvin has had his own run-ins with the law. But earlier this week Irvin became the victim when he apparently found himself looking down the wrong end of the barrel of a gun. Check out this story on how Irvin got out of this precarious situation just by talking football with a couple of would-be thugs … who turn out to love the Cowboys more than they do armed robbery.

BASEBALL’S CLASSIC DILEMMA: New York Mets ace Johan Santana says he is unsure whether he’ll be able to pitch in the World Baseball Classic this spring. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is rehabbing from offseason knee surgery. Santana joins a number of other players who are backing away from the WBC, though not all of those players are taking a pass due to injuries. Some simply say it’s more important that they stay with their teams in spring training to prepare for the season. Makes sense to me. The WBC is an attempt to create more interest in MLB worldwide … however, isn’t it more important that players (and pitchers in particular) are going through the proper work in spring training to have them primed for Opening Day? I just don’t see taking chances on multi-million dollar players getting hurt or being thrown out of rhythm for what is essentially a glorified exhibition game. And if MLB really wants to conduct this Classic, why can’t they do it in a warm-weather climate at the END of the season rather than risking injury before the season. I’m a simple man. I just don’t understand.

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STAT OF THE DAY

$120 million — That’s the ballpark amount that QB Eli Manning is likely to get in his new seven- or eight-year contract to stay with the Giants. According to the New York Daily News, that would make the 28-year-old Manning the eighth quarterback to top the $100 million barrier, and would put him near the top with Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb (12 years, $115 million), Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer (nine years, $118.75 million), and former Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick (10 years, $130 million). It would also mean he’d be making about a million more per year than big brother, Peyton. Ouch.