THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Who wins Saturday’s Arch Rivalry Game between Missouri and Illinois?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Despite losing so many stars and both coordinators, the Tigers have a foundation for success now. But that will be more evident by season’s end than at its start. More-experienced Illini are due for first win over MU in STL since 1896.
Prediction: Illinois 27, Mizzou 21

STU DURANDO
Based on their returning offensive weapons, the Illini should have the advantage against a quarterback making his first collegiate start. But by no means do I discount Blaine Gabbert. I just think it will take him time to get comfortable. Both defenses are re-tooling so there should be plenty of scoring.
Prediction: Illinois 38, Missouri 35

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Illini have a chance to be a surprise team this season. If they cut down on turnovers, and Juice Williams can be more accurate in connecting with a dazzling array of receivers, this should be one of the best offenses in the nation. The Missouri defense figures to have matchup problems with those Illinois wideouts. The pressure is on Illinois to win this one.
Prediction: Illinois 31, Missouri 23.

TOM TIMMERMANN
If this game was being played in December, I might have a different answer, but at the start of September, I think the Illini has an edge on Mizzou. They have an experienced quarterback, experienced receivers and that was a potent combination against the Tigers last season. Mizzou’s offense isn’t far enough along to throw up the points it did last year, and it remains to be seen if the defense can allow fewer points than it did last year.
Prediction: Illinois 42, Mizzou 35.

DAN O’NEILL
I have one especially compelling reason why I’m picking Missouri to win — because I am a Missouri grad. But honestly, I think Missouri’s defense will be better this season (both hands behind my back with fingers crossed) and Gabbert, still an unknown commodity, will give Illinois fits, mostly because of his running ability. Missouri is getting no attention this preseason and I think Gary Pinkel is poised to produce his finest coaching season.
Prediction: Missouri 27, Illinois 24

RICK HUMMEL
Too much experience for Illini. “Juice” will be on the loose.
Prediction: Illinois 34, Missouri 17.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: It was reported Tuesday that Missouri’s top football recruit, Sheldon Richardson, did not qualify academically for next season and will attend a junior college in California. Richardson has said he will be back at Mizzou in 2011, however, after a year in California, won’t the entire recruitment process start all over again for Richardson, with teams from that area working him hard while he’s on the West coast?

VAHE GREGORIAN
No question that recruiters will swarm anew to Richardson now that he’s essentially back on the market. And despite him telling the Post-Dispatch that he knows how to say “no,” he’s an outgoing guy who likes attention and engagement and will have a hard time at least not listening — especially if some of the glamour schools like USC enjoy dropping in on him from time-to-time. That said, I do believe he fully intends to go to Missouri, that he values his relationship enough with assistant Cornell Ford that he will feel duty-bound to please him and that he relishes the idea of being a home-state hero. Gut feeling is there will be some anxious moments for MU fans but that he ultimately will come to Mizzou.

STU DURANDO
Richardson is the one who decides if the process starts again. He said that he is firm in his commitment, which should mean that regardless of who contacts him, he will say no thank you and decline further discussion. But although programs around the country will read of what he said, he is sure to get plenty of attention and not just from schools on the West Coast (Illinois running back Daniel Dufrene went to the same JC). Recruiting players who are committed to other schools is far more rampant in college football than basketball, and if a coach thinks Richardson is giving him an opening, he’ll continue the pursuit. Richardson has to decide from the beginning how he is going to respond to future suitors and remain consistent.

JEFF GORDON
Recruiting is a tough business. Until a player actually signs a letter of intent, other coaches will work the kid. Mizzou has worked kids after they made verbal commitments to other schools. All is fair in love and recruiting. And when a player is forced to go JUCO for academic reasons, the sharks will circle again. That’s just the way it is. The Tigers will keep getting players who fall back into the pool for one reason or another, so it should more than even out.

BILL COATS
Sure, he’ll get attention from schools that feel they might have a chance at changing his mind. But Richardson has been pretty firm in his commitment to Mizzou. Bottom line: at this point, Gary Pinkel can only hope that Richardson’s word is good.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Well, if he plays well, other teams will be interested in him. If he doesn’t play well, other schools won’t be interested in him. And in two years, if Mizzou is 4-7, his interest in them won’t be as high as it is today. But Pac-10 schools don’t gobble up JC players. USC has just a few, UCLA has one, Washington has two. So barring a really great season there, Mizzou is probably safe. But they will have to re-recruit him, just so other schools, which aren’t necessarily on the West Coast, don’t make inroads.

KATHLEEN NELSON
If Richardson plays as well as everyone thinks he can play, some school — or several schools — will take a run at him. You’re taking a major leap of faith if you expect a 19- or 20-year-old to honor a commitment when coaches and pro athletes take contracts and promises so lightly.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Missouri seemingly lost half of its starting players to the NFL a few weeks ago. With names like Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, William Moore, Ziggy Hood and others moving on, what are the chances Mizzou can come even close to repeating its success of the past couple seasons? Has coach Gary Pinkel restocked enough for next year’s team to pick up where last year’s team left off?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Mizzou has established a baseline and has plenty of talent, even if a lot of it is unseasoned. But it’s hard to imagine you can replace the best quarterback in school history, two of the most intimidating offensive players in the nation in Maclin and Coffman and the most accurate kicker in NCAA history (Jeff Wolfert) and not sag. I think the defense actually will be improved, but I’d be amazed if the whole package is immediately as good as the last two seasons. That said, if you looked at the Big 12 schedule today, MU probably would be favored in five or six of its eight games. I actually think they can contend for the North crown but will be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-3.

JEFF GORDON
Getting to the high side of .500 and reaching a minor bowl game would be huge accomplishments, all considering. Is there life after Brad Smith and Chase Daniel? That is the multi-million dollar question. The Tigers will be able to run the ball and catch it, but what about the man at the controls? The sample from last season was much too small to judge.

MIKE SMITH
God bless the Tigers mentioned above, but honestly, didn’t that group basically check out last season after the home loss to Okie State and the stampede at Texas?

This season, Mizzou can diversify its offense with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback and undervalued backs Derrick Washington and De’Vion Moore running behind a decent line. There’s no doubting Gabbert’s physical tools, but these issues/questions remain:

1) He’s almost three years removed from spending an entire fall playing competitive football (Daniel’s understudy in 2008; injured most of 2007.)

2) Who will he throw to besides TE Andrew Jones? After Jared Perry and Danario Alexander — both injured this spring — the roster of wideouts is nondescript.

3) Can he lead his teammates? Blaine Gabbert was all about Blaine Gabbert when he played for Parkway West, but perhaps Pinkel has brow-beaten that attitude out of him by now.

Defensively, the Tigers automatically are better because they’re under new management (Eberflus out, Steckel in). Bottom line: a 4-0 nonconference season followed by a 5-3 Big 12 campaign and another minor bowl trip TBA (I mean, Big 12 favorite sons Nebraska and Kansas have to first decide which bowls they want to attend, THEN Mizzou can be accommodated).

TOM TIMMERMANN
There’s no way Mizzou can be as good next year as last year. They lost too much talent, and while the replacements may someday be as good or better, they won’t be next season. But that doesn’t mean Mizzou can’t win the Big 12 North. The league’s talent remains in the South, and Kansas is the competition to win the division and go back to the conference championship game. So by that standard, that Mizzou has a very good chance of being back in the Big 12 final, they will be picking up where they left off. But they’ll probably get thumped by every South Division team they play.

KATHLEEN NELSON
The Tigers have enough players who contributed last year to make another run at the Big 12 North. The offense will feature a veteran running back, Derrick Washington, a pair of wide receivers with big play experience, Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, and the bulk of the offensive line. The defense probably will rely on NT Jaron Baston and linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Luke Lambert. Perhaps the relative inexperience of the squad is a plus. Last year’s defense and departed coordinator Matt Eberflus took heaps of criticism. A blank slate could do these guys good.

Given the inexperience on defense and the first year for QB Blaine Gabbert, fans shouldn’t expect much more than a fight for the division, though.

BILL COATS
The solid recruiting that Pinkel and his staff have accomplished in recent yearS is paying off. Mizzou lost a lot, but it returns a lot, too. The Tigers have enough to be in the hunt for another Big 12 North title.

THE WATERCOOLER
(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: Did Mizzou jump the gun with Gary Pinkel’s contract extension and overpay by making him the third-highest paid coach in the Big 12?

JEFF GORDON
No. Pinkel has not built a Top 10 football program, true. His Tigers are not ready to compete with Texas and Oklahoma step for step. His team might lose by 50 points in the Big 12 Championship game. But Mizzou has arrived as a perennial Top 25 program. On Pinkel’s watch, MU has built better facilities, a stronger recruiting base, greater fan support and increased revenue. For two decades, Missouri was one of the biggest underachievers in college football. Pinkel changed all that with Herculean effort. So he earned his extension and raise.

STU DURANDO
No. How can they be jumping the gun after he went 12-2 and 9-3? If fans think the raise was a mistake, then they’re willing to let him go and start over with a new coaching staff. And then maybe it takes that staff seven or eight years to get back to this level.

BILL COATS
Absolutely not. Even though Larry Smith took Mizzou to a couple of minor bowls, the program was in terrible shape when Pinkel arrived. He said it would take time to rebuild, and it did. But now, MU has established itself, and its recruiting success reflects that.

DERRICK GOOLD
The pay isn’t the issue. Pinkel’s new salary fits the going rate for college football coaches at major programs, and Mizzou is starting to fancy itself a major program even before it really has enough major victories. No, the pay has a purpose. The salary is a shield. It makes any buyout difficult and sends would-be suitors shrinking back to their boosters. The concern here is the length of the contract. Committing to Pinkel, the 31st coach in MU history, through 2015 means his tenure will be second only to Don Faurot. He’ll vault past Dan Devine. There is more faith than money in this contract. Is a repeat of the last seven years good enough now? Is Mizzou that confident that Pinkel can keep the Tigers in the BCS picture? It must be. This contract offers consistency and implies sustained excellence. It just as easily could lock the Tigers into a complacent run of up-year, down-year cycles. That’s better than it was, sure. But hasn’t Pinkel positioned the program to demand better yet?

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

MORE SURGERY FOR BALLESTEROS: Five-time golfing major champion Seve Ballesteros has undergone more surgery, this time to drain fluid from his brain, according to the Associated Press. Doctors implanted a valve in Ballesteros’s brain today to remove fluid. Madrid’s La Paz hospital says he is in stable condition and remains in intensive care. The 51-year-old Ballesteros had surgery Oct. 24 to remove a malignant brain tumor.

STEPHEN A. ON PLAX: “Another black athlete. Another sad statistic,” says Stephen A. Smith of ESPN.com. “The embarrassing and precarious set of circumstances Plaxico Burress finds himself in clearly are not an indication of the behavior exhibited by most players of any color in the NFL, particularly African-Americans. The vast majority of NFL players have some sense.”

ALBERT AND THE MVP: While you’ll always find the best Cardinals baseball coverage in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch or here at STLtoday.com, occassionally I’ll run across a different perspective. I thought this piece written by John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus when Albert Pujols won his most recent MVP award had some interesting anecdotes about the Cardinals slugger and his thoughts on hitting. This won’t get you whole article (you have to pay for that), but what Albert has to say at the top is pretty good. Read about his “rookie mistake.”

HOT CARDINALS TOPICS: Again, like I said, you’ll get the best Cards’ coverage from us, so here’s a couple things you don’t want to miss: Rick Hummel’s Hot Stove discussion today, where he includes thoughts on Mark McGwire’s Hall of Fame chances and those of another former Cardinal. … And, don’t forget to come back tomorrow on STLtoday.com to ride the tsunami of Joe Strauss Live!!! as he gets set to head to the baseball Winter Meetings. Ask Joe your questions now before the wave moves out on its way to Las Vegas.

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SOME THINGS I THINK I THINK

PERRON AND ON: St. Louis Blues forward David Perron might be the most exciting St. Louis athlete in-season to watch right now. Kudos to coach Andy Murray for lighting a fire under Perron’s French-Canadien derriere by reminding him the AHL always awaits, and to Perron for stepping up to the challenge. Always fun to watch as a stick-handler, Perron once seemed to fear going into the dark places on the ice. Watch his shifts now. Though it may not always show up on the stat sheet, Perron is charging the puck hard all over the ice and even when he’s not scoring it seems he’s keeping the puck alive and creating opportunities for his teammates. Now that Patrik Berglund is back from injury, hopefully T.J. Oshie also returns soon and Blues fans long-starved for offense will have a troika of young, offensive talent to watch.

A-ROD GONE WILD: Has Alex Rodriguez lost his mind? He’s 33, he’s in the prime of a Hall of Fame career that likely will end with him becoming the all-time home run king, he’s made more money playing baseball than anyone ever, and he’s pretty much always listed as one of the World’s 100 most Beautiful People. He’s got it all, right? So what in the name of all things good is he doing frolicking around with 50-year-old Madonna, who’s probably the only person in American history to have slept more places than George Washington? I just don’t get the fascination with the washed-up pop star. Perhaps Madonna’s playing the Susan Sarandon role of Annie Savoy to A-Rod’s “Nuke” LaLoosh. You watch closely this year and tell me if you don’t see A-Rod trying to “breathe through his eyes.”

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STAT OF THE DAY

11 — Number of games missed by Blues LW Paul Kariya due to his “day-to-day” injury suffered Nov. 5 against Anaheim. “Week-to-week” would have been a more accurate description of Kariya’s lingering hip-flexor injury from the outset, and since this Friday will mark one month since Kariya’s been out, perhaps “month-to-month” would have been better yet. Unfortunately, in the NHL teams do not have to give out much info on their players’ injuries, and the players themselves are often under pressure from management to remain mum also. I don’t know that the secrecy gives teams any sort of competitive advantage, but I do know a lack of information leaves fans totally in the dark about their favorite players and teams. When will Kariya be back? Who knows? Reports now say perhaps sometime next week … whatever that means.