THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Even with all the offensive firepower the Cardinals have added recently, which team do you see as the biggest threat to St. Louis for the NL Central crown and why?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cubs are the only real threat. They were supposed to be the best team in the division and they still well may be the best, IF lefthander Ted Lilly, their most effective pitcher this season, doesn’t miss too much time with knee and shoulder miseries.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs. There is a reason why the Cubs have one of the highest payrolls in the majors — they have a lot of talent and they, arguably, have the best lineup and most imposing rotation … when … healthy. And that’s the key. The Cubs have been hanging around, hanging around, hanging around and hanging around and the longer they hang around the more time they have to get their Wrigley together, ditch the chaos and injuries from earlier this season and play like they’re capable. Their Central foes had their chance to pull away from the Cubs. And they didn’t.

JEFF GORDON
Until Roy Oswalt went down, I liked the Astros. That team has been on a prolonged upturn. The ’Stros can really beat up opponents in its bandbox stadium. But they have to have their ace. If Oswalt misses significant time with his back strain, that makes the Cubs the biggest threat — even without Ted Lilly. Neither team seems likely to make a major move at the trade deadline, though, so both teams could lose some steam.

GERRY FRALEY
The Chicago Cubs have the best talent in the NL Central. The most telling sign of that is the Cubs have not been buried despite nearly four months of slipshod play. The Cubs win despite themselves because they can out-talent most teams.

The Central will be a two-month drag race between the Cardinals and the Cubs. How soon ailing lefthander Ted Lilly returns to the Cubs’ rotation will be a significant factor. It is possible the rivalry will carry over into October. The clubs could push each other so hard that both will get into the playoffs, with the runnerup as the wild-card entrant.

LUKE THOMPSON
Even without their recent hot streak, the Cubs would seem to be the team with the best chance to challenge the Cardinals in the final two months. Lou Piniella’s team was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and now Aramis Ramirez is back, as is Milton Bradley, who is finally starting to hit. Of course, injury issues continue to cause problems, most notably with All-Star Ted Lilly. But the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central on paper, and that is probably still true even with the Cardinals’ new additions. It’s quite possible their one remaining series on September 18-20 in St. Louis could have large title implications.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cubs. They’ve had key players underperforming all season long, they’ve had injuries and a half dozen on-field temper tantrums that have almost cost them a Gatorade machine. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong — at least until recently — and yet they’re right there in the race.

The Cards have had plenty of bad breaks themselves, make no mistake about that. They and the Cubs are actually quite similar when you think about it. Neither team has played as well as it can play and now the Cardinals have some significant new pieces to play with. I also say the Cubs are the biggest threat to the Cards because I don’t think the Astros or the Brewers are all that hot. They’ll fade while the Cards and Cubs continue to sprint toward the finish.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Todd Wellemeyer, the most inconsistent of the Cardinals’ five starters, goes tonight in Houston against the Astros. He has averaged barely 5 innings per start and has lost three of his past five decisions. How important is tonight’s start?

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Not very. Dave Duncan is obviously committed to Wellemeyer. And Tony La Russa and Duncan obviously have little faith in alternative candidates from the system, pitchers such as Mitchell Boggs, Blake Hawksworth or Clayton Mortensen. Perhaps a test case will surface when (and if) Jaime Garcia is ready to pitch.

BRYAN BURWELL:
Wellemeyer has to know that the leash is getting extremely short at this point, particularly because of the way the schedule is laid out. La Russa could decide to go with a four-man rotation if Wellemeyer produces another clunker and who could blame him.

JOE STRAUSS:
Organizational patience with him appears to be wearing thin. In his next two starts, he needs to show more of the pitcher of last year, and not the lost cause that many have suspected he has become.

RICK HUMMEL:
The way I see it, Todd Wellemeyer has three more starts in which to prove himself, i.e. show he deserves to stay in the rotation. But after the third one of those, July 31 against Houston, the Cardinals have two off days in the next week and they wouldn’t have to use him anyway until about Aug. 12.

DERRICK GOOLD:
The start isn’t as pivotal for Wellemeyer as it is for the Cardinals in this series. I spoke with several people yesterday around the Cardinals and all refuted the idea that Wellemeyer was on game-to-game probation as a member of the rotation. The biggest reason: There isn’t a pitcher pushing to replace him. As manager Tony La Russa said, Wellemeyer knows he’s their best option and is pitching now so that he’s not “vulnerable” when they do have an alternative. That said, Wellemeyer’s start represents the tipping point of this series. Monday was the night the Cardinals had the pitching edge, with Wandy Rodriguez and his home success going tonight for Houston and the duel of aces — Roy Oswalt vs. Chris Carpenter — coming tomorrow. The pitching lined up such that the Cardinals could count on Carpenter to pitch for the series win Wednesday. Instead, a loss Monday means Wellemeyer must perform tonight so that Oswalt isn’t throwing for a series sweep.

JEFF GORDON:
You never get the sense that Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan will never take him out of the rotation. They certainly want no part of starting, say, Blake Hawksworth in that spot. But general manager John Mozeliak has enough chips to acquire a No. 5-type starter and he could force a change. Wellemeyer looked so hopelessly lost his last two times out that another horrid start would force Mozeliak to intensify his trade talks.

THE WATERCOOLER
(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: If you had to choose among the Blues’ three young forwards — David Perron, T.J. Oshie and Patrik Berglund — who do you think is most likely to become a consistent 30-goal scorer in the NHL and why?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’ll go with Perron. The kid seems to have an innate feel for the puck, and a real instinct for finding the open spaces. He’s slippery, and he’s clever and he plays with a bit of an edge. He has good hands. The goals will come. It’s just a matter of time. And once he starts pumping those goals in, we’ll see a lot of ’em.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Give me Oshie. I see Perron leveling off somewhere below 30 goals, in part because his skills will be directed elsewhere. Berglund may help other guys get 30 goals, but he won’t get ’em himself. Oshie, meanwhile, will scrap in front of the net, where there are goals to be found and he’s quick enough to make goals happen elsewhere.

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
All three players have 30-goal potential, but I like Perron’s chances best. Perron scored 39 goals in 70 games in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League two years ago, and Berglund put up 21 goals in 35 games and 21 goals in 36 games in back-to-back seasons in Sweden. Typically when you’re a goal scorer in hockey, you find ways to score at every level, and once Perron adjusts to the NHL, he’ll find a way. Berglund will score at this level, too, but playing center, he has more dirty work than Perron in the defensive end, and offensively I see Berglund as more of a play-maker. Oshie might be as fun a player as there is to watch, but he wasn’t a prolific scorer in college. He had 24 goals in 43 games as a freshman at the University of North Dakota, but then dipped to 17 and 18 his next two seasons. Oshie has so much energy and wants so badly to hit everything that moves that his No. 1 focus isn’t scoring. Perron has the skill-set and the improving strength to be a 30-goal guy in the NHL more consistently than the others.

DAN O’NEILL
First, I must take issue with the notion that we can predict a “consistent 30-goal scorer.” In their 41-season history, only eight players have scored 30 goals or more in a Blues uniform as many as three seasons in succession. But because it is a mandate, and because Bernie Parent has retired, I suggest Oshie is the most likely to reach that kind of production. He has the skill to score pretty goals and the grit to score ugly. He appears to be a slightly inflated version of Theo Fleury.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Since none of the writers chose Berglund, I’ve gotta chime in (maybe because I’ve got him on my fantasy team, maybe not.) Though he lacks the flash of Perron or the pure grit of Oshie, I think Berglund has the kind of understated European goal-scoring ability that could lead to him putting up “quiet” 30-goal seasons somewhat consistently. I like all three of the Blues youngsters, but for upside scoring I’d go with Berglund.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT: Pitcher Mike Hampton will return to the NL Central after signing a one-year deal with the Houston Astros. Does that scare you, Cardinal fans? Does it? Didn’t think so. Hampton’s biggest claim to fame is parlaying one 20-win season with the Astros (followed by a 15-win year with the Mets) into an eight-year, $121 million contract with the Colorado Rockies … then winning just 56 games over the life of that contract while with the Rockies and Braves. That means Hampton got paid just over $2.1 million per victory in that period. I’m thinking righthanded hitters will go long often against the lefty given the short porch in left at Minute Maid … assuming Hampton’s even playing. Remember he missed the 2006 and 2007 seasons following elbow operations and the first four months of last season with a torn pectoral muscle. Houston, you may have a problem.

BEER, BEER, BEER FOR OLD NOTRE DAME: That’s got to be the sentiment around South Bend after it was officially announced today that head coach Charlie Weis will be back for another year. This despite the fact that in his first four years Weis has compiled a 28-21 record and a .571 winning percentage, the worst since Gerry Faust led the Irish to a 30-26-1 mark (.535) from 1981-85. Wonder why Weis’ predecessor Tyrone Willingham didn’t get the same considerations after going 21-15 (.583) in his first three seasons? Think it has something to do with the 10-year contract extension Weis signed after his initial success at Notre Dame and the encumberances that a buyout could entail? Sorry, Irish fans, I guess it’s not over ’ til the Fat Man Cha-Chings at least one more year at Notre Dame. (Read Chicago Tribune columnist Steve Rosenbloom teeing off on the decision.)

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JUST A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

ANTI-DOPING? HOW ABOUT ANTI-CARING: Six players in the NFL were suspended yesterday on suspicion of violating the league’s anti-doping policy. YAWN. Please wake me when the Steroid Era and everything that goes with it has passed. The only kind of talk I care about anymore in relation to “performance enhancers” is how the Rams might put a better product on the field or how the Cards can avoid losing leads in the late innings. Now there’s a performance-enhancing topic I think we can all agree on.

BUT THAT REMINDS ME: Why does any talk of Mark McGwire in any context bring out such raw emotions in St. Louis? There seems to be absolutely no middle ground. Either folks love him for his Summer of Love home-run fest and will never admit he did anything wrong, or folks hate him because they feel he cheated them and that he’s a fraud. At what point will one side take its head out of the sand and the other side admit McGwire was simply a product of his era? If you really need a villain in this whole saga, why not just blame those “female” East German athletes from back in the ’70s … Lord knows what many of them could have done with a bat in their hands at Coors Field.

AH, THERE’S ALWAYS THE CUBS: OK, I’ll admit this item is a week old, but any chance to poke fun at the Chicago Cubs’ historic playoff crashes seems to entertain our readers. So in case you Cardinals fans out there have not seen it, I thought you might like The Onion’s report on a contract agreement that stipulates the Cubs will not be going to the World Series for at least four more years, with an option for a six-year extension.

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STAT OF THE DAY

ZERO — Winning seasons by the St. Louis Rams since Mad Mike Martz was run out of town on rails after the 2005 season. Martz’s record as Rams head coach was 56-36, good enough for a .609 winning percentage.