THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Starting pitcher Chris Carpenter so far has had no setbacks in camp. However, given his injury history, what would realistically constitute a successful season for Carpenter in 2009?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals’ lack of depth does not allow for grading on a curve. (Mortensen and Todd are projected as major league relievers; Walters and Ottavino are projected for the rotation but not ready, despite the buzz created by some hyperventilating early reports; Boggs is behind due to shoulder stiffness that followed him into camp. The club does not promote Brad Thompson as an alternative.) Anything less than 28 starts by Carpenter represents a serious complication to the season.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’d say about 25 starts. If the Cardinals have to take a conservative approach and back him off a couple of times this season, they can live with that. He’ll make a positive impact. Am I confident that Carpenter will hold up? Not really. His injury history is troubling and he isn’t getting any younger.

DERRICK GOOLD
Nothing short of 25 starts. Anything less could leave the Cardinals exposed. Anything more than 30 starts from a healthy and vintage Carpenter and the Cardinals have to be considered contenders. The current roster isn’t braced for an on-again, off-again Carpenter.

BRYAN BURWELL
The most realistic expectation for Chris Carpenter is to play a full season injury-free. If he makes all his starts, that means he will be the old Chris Carpenter and that makes him a successful 15-plus victory starter. I just want to see him stay healthy and make all his starts, it’s as simple as that.

JEFF GORDON
If Chris Carpenter can win 15 games and still be reasonably strong in October, Cards fans should throw a party. He is coming back from serious injuries. He is trying to rebuild his stamina. His body is pretty fresh after a year of relative inactivity, but he also is working to regain his long-haul endurance. Even if his arm and shoulder remain injury-free, Carpenter can expect to hit a couple of walls this season while trying to pitch every fifth day. He must manage his body very carefully.

RICK HUMMEL
Thirty starts. If he gets that many, which many would presume a longshot, the wins will take care of themselves. Say 15.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

SPLITSVILLE IN INDY? Football can be a cold and cruel game. Players sacrifice their bodies to compete year after year, yet there is very little security other than signing bonuses and yearly salaries. Long-term contracts in the NFL? Meaningless. A player can be cut tomorrow (or today) and that six-year deal he signed three years ago is worth nothing more than what his agent was able to secure in “guaranteed” money — usually just a fraction of the overall deal.

Courtesy of the Indianapolis Star, we hear today of a future Hall of Famer who likely is coming to an untimely end with the only franchise he’s ever known. Unless Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay can convince Marvin Harrision in a sitdown today to restructure his contract, it looks like the Peyton Manning-to-Harrison connection will be lost forever. Even though he’ll be 37 in August, it’s got to be hard on Harrison’s pride. Here’s a guy who is an eight-time Pro Bowler who ranks second in NFL history with 1,102 receptions, fourth with 14,580 receiving yards and fifth with 128 receiving touchdowns.

Unfortunately, Harrison is coming off his two least-productive seasons … age may be catching up with him. It’s just tough to watch one of the game’s best be put out to pasture (or just be sent away to another team.) But it’s nothing new to St. Louisans after watching Isaac Bruce get unceremoniously released last year, only to resurface in San Francisco. And it looks now like Torry Holt could be next.

It just shouldn’t happen with these guys who have been the faces of their franchise. Jerry Rice should have never suited up for anyone but the Niners. Bruce the same with the Rams and Harrison the same with the Colts. It’s just a shame the players and teams can’t come up with a way to make it end in a classy way. Even with a salary cap, it seems to me reasonable folks could look at it reasonably and weigh a player’s and a franchise’s legacies against the almighty dollar and come up with something in the middle. But that’s probably just naive on my part, unfortunately.

HE’S BACK: The golfing world is getting giddy over Tiger Woods return to play tomorrow in the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. One ESPN report this morning estimates more than 100 media members were up early this morning to watch the world’s No. 1 golfer launch his first tee shot in his first practice round. And that doesn’t even take into account the number of spectators that began tracking Tiger from the first hole. Pretty amazing.

Woods, who has been out of action since he defeated Rocco Mediate in a playoff at last June’s U.S. Open — while playing on a knee with torn ligaments — reportedly missed only one fairway on the front nine. This weekend will prove to be just the latest in Tiger’s coronation march to becoming known as the greatest golfer to ever play the game. Stay tuned.

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STAT OF THE DAY

52 years, 11 days — The age of the oldest NHL player in history. His name? Gordie Howe. Incredibly, Howe played all 80 games of the 1979-80 schedule for the NHL’s Hartford Whalers at the age of 51, turning 52 just before the season’s end and then skating in three playoff matches. Howe’s career spanned 32 pro seasons and 2,421 NHL and WHA games. (Source: “Hockey’s Top 100: The Game’s Greatest Records”)

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Chase Daniel will play in two college All-Star games in the next couple weeks (the East-West game and the Senior Bowl.) Is Daniel an NFL prospect already, or will his performance in these games determine whether or not he’s selected in the NFL draft in April?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Despite completing about 75 percent of his passes this season, Daniel’s tendency to turn the ball over and apparent happy feet through much of the second half of the season leaves him needing a profile boost — especially since his profile only is about 5-11. His performance in those games will matter, as will further scrutiny by NFL teams.

BRYAN BURWELL
Daniel’s NFL appeal suffered greatly this season and he’ll need strong workouts during practice weeks building up to those games as well as decent shows in the all-star games to revive his draft appeal.

JEFF GORDON
Actually, how Daniel practices will say a lot about his draft status. That may help (or hurt) him more than the games. Scouts will be all over the scene, watching each session closely. How will Chase perform outside of the spread offense? The revelation of his late-season thumb injury will help his case, since scouts noticed his inability to throw the ball downfield with much authority in the Big 12 Championship Game and the Alamo Bowl. Daniel can’t get any taller between now and the draft, but he CAN change perceptions about his passing ability. Can he throw the ball into the small windows of NFL defenses? And can he make those throws as a drop-back passer? The coming practice sessions will say a lot.

STU DURANDO
Daniel’s stock clearly dropped as the season progressed and it’s tough to find anyone who ranks him among the top 10 quarterbacks for the draft. I read one well-researched analysis that listed him No. 25. Sometimes good college players just don’t translate into NFL prospects. At this point, I think he’s just trying to play himself back into the draft. I would hope his performances in the all-star games don’t have any impact on his status.

DAN O’NEILL
I think what will be a determining factor is how many times the camera crews at those games focus on the Daniel family in the stands. If it is as often as they did during the waning moments of the Alamo Bowl, his chances of becoming an NFL prospect will not be greatly increased, but his chances of getting a new sitcom — “Meet the Daniels” — will be improved dramatically. As far as improving his NFL prospect status, I only see that happening if he is going to play tailback in the games. He had a great career as a college quarterback, but where Daniel’s chances of being an NFL quarterback are concerned, two words, sung in A-minor flat: “Ohhh Canada.”

TOM TIMMERMANN
The prototype college quarterback and the prototype NFL quarterback are two very different things. Daniel is a good college quarterback who can run, but that doesn’t always translate into NFL success. He’ll need to show he can excel in an NFL-type offense and not the spread. The all-star games will be the first steps for that. I think he’ll get drafted, but these all-star games will determine how high.

KATHLEEN NELSON
He can help himself a lot. A pack of his most vocal critics call Daniel a system quarterback. Perhaps he can prove otherwise by working with unfamiliar personnel outside Missouri’s version of the spread offense.

BILL COATS
He’s a prospect already. Daniel might not have all the “measurables” that NFL scouts like, but intangibles such as his leadership and competitiveness will earn him a shot. I’d guess he’s a middle-round pick.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

THE COLTS AND THEIR COACH: So you’ve got an NFL team that has been to the playoffs seven straight seasons, won five the last six AFC South titles and won at least 12 games in six consecutive seasons. And you’ve just lost a big-time, big-name coach in Tony Dungy. So who do the Indianapolis Colts put in charge? Well it was pre-ordained that Dungy’s longtime assistant Jim Caldwell would take over when Dungy left. That transition has now transpired. And one of the most potent teams in the NFL in recent years is now being run by a man who’s only head coaching experience consists of 26-63 record coaching Wake Forest.

Huh, I don’t get it. But it appears the folks in Indianapolis are buying it. Here’s what Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star had to say: “No, he’s not a sexy choice. … He’s not a Mike Shanahan or a Bill Cowher or a Marty Schottenheimer, not a choice who demands big, brassy headlines. But for the Indianapolis Colts, who said goodbye to a giant as coach Monday, Caldwell is the right choice at the right time.”

It’s hard to imagine the Colts not having success given the talent they’ve got, but it all starts with the head coach. We’ll see how Caldwell holds up a couple years down the line when the team begins to take on his identity.

ANAHEIM THROWS IN THE TOWEL: It appears the city of Anaheim is giving up its legal challenge against the Los Angeles Angels … formerly known as the Anaheim Angels. Can you believe it’s been four years already since new owner Arte Moreno made the marketing move that rocked the city of Anaheim and robbed the good citizens there of that civic pride? It also cost those citizens $4 million in legal fees fighting the name change in court.

Well, I guess the people of Anaheim could recoup some of that money and stick it to the man by not attending the Angels games anymore. It’s similar to what many Cardinal fans are threatening to do this offseason due to a lack of movement in the free agent market. But here’s what I’m guessing: With a powerhouse team like the Angels and a historically devoted fan base like the Cardinals have, neither team will have much trouble putting fannies in the seats … regardless of the public outrage.

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THINGS TO PONDER

HOW ’BOUT THEM COWBOYS: Former Cowboys wide receiver and current television commentator Michael Irvin has had his own run-ins with the law. But earlier this week Irvin became the victim when he apparently found himself looking down the wrong end of the barrel of a gun. Check out this story on how Irvin got out of this precarious situation just by talking football with a couple of would-be thugs … who turn out to love the Cowboys more than they do armed robbery.

BASEBALL’S CLASSIC DILEMMA: New York Mets ace Johan Santana says he is unsure whether he’ll be able to pitch in the World Baseball Classic this spring. The two-time Cy Young Award winner is rehabbing from offseason knee surgery. Santana joins a number of other players who are backing away from the WBC, though not all of those players are taking a pass due to injuries. Some simply say it’s more important that they stay with their teams in spring training to prepare for the season. Makes sense to me. The WBC is an attempt to create more interest in MLB worldwide … however, isn’t it more important that players (and pitchers in particular) are going through the proper work in spring training to have them primed for Opening Day? I just don’t see taking chances on multi-million dollar players getting hurt or being thrown out of rhythm for what is essentially a glorified exhibition game. And if MLB really wants to conduct this Classic, why can’t they do it in a warm-weather climate at the END of the season rather than risking injury before the season. I’m a simple man. I just don’t understand.

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STAT OF THE DAY

$120 million — That’s the ballpark amount that QB Eli Manning is likely to get in his new seven- or eight-year contract to stay with the Giants. According to the New York Daily News, that would make the 28-year-old Manning the eighth quarterback to top the $100 million barrier, and would put him near the top with Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb (12 years, $115 million), Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer (nine years, $118.75 million), and former Atlanta quarterback Michael Vick (10 years, $130 million). It would also mean he’d be making about a million more per year than big brother, Peyton. Ouch.

THE WATERCOOLER

Question: With two weeks remaining in the regular season, who are your NFC and AFC picks for the Super Bowl?

JIM THOMAS
NFC: Carolina — If the Panthers win Sunday’s showdown with the New York Giants and earn home-field advantage in the playoffs, they will be tough to beat.
AFC: Indianapolis — The Colts will have to do it as a wild-card, but they keep quietly winning games and gaining momentum.

BILL COATS
NFC: Carolina — The Giants are fading in the NFC and the Panthers seem to be hitting their stride at just the right time.
AFC: Indianapolis — The Titans could be in big trouble in the AFC if DT Albert Haynesworth’s knee injury is serious. And the Colts, like the Panthers, are just hitting their stride.

JEFF GORDON
NFC: Carolina — I would have gone with the New York Football Giants, but the Plaxico Incident apparently derailed that bid to repeat. They looked bad Sunday night. So I’ll go with Carolina, trusting that a strong ground game and a solid “D” still counts for something.
AFC: Pittsburgh — The Steelers have won five in a row despite taking some injury hits in the ground game. Ben Roethlisberger keeps finding ways — although Sunday’s game-winning “touchdown pass” looked pretty bogus on the replays. Haunting Kerry Collins flashbacks prevent me from remembering the Titans when picking favorites this year.

KATHLEEN NELSON
NFC: N.Y. Giants — Despite a two-game losing streak, the Giants should beat Carolina on Sunday. The Panthers (3-3) aren’t the greatest road team. As long as they don’t face the Cowboys in the playoffs, the Giants should have an easier path to the Super Bowl than their AFC counterpart.
AFC: Pittsburgh — The Steelers have the momentum. Tennessee will have its hands full with the Steelers on Sunday. Indy’s on a roll, too, and could cause problems for playoff opponents.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

BERGLUND THE BEST OF ROOKIES: At least that’s what Scott Cullen of TSN believes. Cullen ranks the top 50 rookies in the league and has the Blues’ Patrik Berglund as No. 1. Here’s what Cullen has to say about Berglund, who has nine goals, 10 assists and is plus-10 in 23 games played: “Skilled Swede has the size and skill to be a prototypical No.1 centre. (Centre, by the way, is Canadian for center.) There are four Blues players on the list. The next might surprise you, as B.J. Crombeen comes in at No. 19. Cullen says the Stars must be kicking themselves for letting Crombeen go on waivers. Check out the entire list. (And let me know what you think about No. 50 on that list.)

CADDIE SMACK: Tiger Wood’s caddie Steve Williams appears to not only be carrying the bag, but carrying a grudge, too, against the world’s third-ranked golfer Phil Mickelson. According to the Guardian newspaper of Britain, during an event over the weekend in New Zealand, Williams said, “I wouldn’t call Mickelson a great player, ‘cause I hate the [expletive].” In another paper the next day, Williams said, “I don’t particularly like (Mickelson). He pays me no respect at all and hence I don’t pay him any respect. It’s no secret we don’t get along either.”

Mickelson didn’t take the bait and said simply that he’s glad to have a “class act” like Jim MacKay on his bag. As for Tiger, he was at home rehabbing and enjoying life. It’s good to be Tiger.

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THINGS TO PONDER

AFL SHUTS IT DOWN IN 2009: The Arena Football League is expected to officially announce today that the league is shutting down for the 2009 season but hopes to return in 2010 with a new business model. According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the 16-team league voted to shut down because too many big-name owners or teams in big cities say they would not return. The big-names include NFL owners include Jerry Jones (owner of the Dallas Cowboys) and Arthur Blank (Atlanta Falcons.)

First, I didn’t realize the AFL was still in existence. Second, I was shocked to learn that the AFL has been around for 22 years. Third, I wonder if the Rams would give any thought to joining that league if it reopens in 2010.

DOPEY QUOTE OF THE DAY: According to the Associated Press, shortstop Adam Everett and the Detroit Tigers finalized a one-year contract today worth about $1 million. “We’ve talked about improving our defense, and we think Adam obviously does that,” Tigers president Dave Dombrowski told the A.P. Alright, I have no problem with that. Everett’s always been known to have a solid glove. But check out the rest of Dombrowski’s statement … “He also can help us offensively — he can get the big hit.”

It’s here where I must point out that Everett batted just .213 with two home runs and 20 RBIs in 48 games for the Minnesota Twins last season. And Everett, who will be 32 in February, has a recent three-year average of just .233 at the plate, with 31 RBIs and 3 homers. Exactly how is it that Everett is going to help the Tigers offensively? Sometimes I think baseball front office types just think that fans are stupid. You can check out Everett’s career stats for yourself and tell me if you think I’m wrong.

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STAT OF THE DAY

762 — Career home runs hit by 44-year-old Barry Bonds, who told the L.A. media this weekend, “I’m not retiring. I’m not retiring.” Perhaps league owners have already made that decision for Bonds, since no one came calling for his services this past season. Now if he could only produce the kind of offense of someone like, say, Adam Everett, perhaps he could find a place in the game.