THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The free agency doors have now busted open completely and teams are free to talk dollars and cents with all free agents. Matt Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, has talked about seeking a Mark Teixeira-type deal (8 years, $180 million) for his client. At the end of the day, regardless of where he ends up, what kind of a contract do you see Holliday getting in terms of years and dollars?

DERRICK GOOLD
It’s no surprise that Boras would set a high bar for the opening bid on his biggest client this season. It’s just doubtful that the market will reach that level, especially when Mark Teixeira played a different (read: less populated) position and found himself in a cash-o-war between baseball’s biggest (spending) rivals, the Yankees and Red Sox. Boras should hope such a situation develops for Holliday. In the meantime, the Alfonso Soriano deal looks like a more likely indicator. Soriano got eight years; Holliday seems tailored for six (with maybe an option and possibly a walk-away in the middle, ala Alex Rodriguez). Soriano’s salary averages $17 million over the life of the contract. Seems realistic to target Holliday, a much better overall hitter than Soriano, for $18 million or slightly more. That fits Holliday for a deal of about six years, $105 million to $120 million. But truly the offer will be whatever the market commands, and right now the Cardinals appear to be the team most interested and most willing to meet the price.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Unless there’s a surprise, and there is always that possibility, Boras won’t be able to exploit a depressed market for the kind of fantasy deal he envisions. Instead of Teixeira money, he may be more in line for Alfonso Soriano money. And even that’s questionable, considering this is a weak free-agent class, with Holliday being the best of the lot. That said, it only takes one wacko owner or GM to be seduced by Boras.

JEFF GORDON
I believe Boras really wants to top Alfonso Soriano and get his guy about $140 million over eight years. At the moment, the market for that sort of deal doesn’t appear to be there. The Angels don’t like dealing with Boras, so that team appears headed in a different direction. Boras can only hope that Jason Bay gets a big offer from, say, Seattle — thus forcing Boston to buck up for Holliday. I’ll take a wild guess and say that Holliday gets six years and $105 million from somebody.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Six years, $110 million with a couple of mutual options tagged on at the end and big buyouts attached to each. Those options would make the total potential payout roughly $150 million over 8 years. That’s just a hair over $18 million per season which would make Holliday the second-highest paid outfielder in MLB behind Manny Ramirez and just ahead of Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells. He’s certainly a better player than Wells and can impact a game like Hunter and Suzuki, albeit in a different way. If the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets are all legitimately involved (not just “interested”) in talks, that number could certainly be a bit higher. But I don’t think he gets quite to the Teixeira level no matter who signs him.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: While so much of the free-agent focus for the Cardinals seems to be on Matt Holliday or a replacement for him in left field, what is another part of this team where help is needed and that fans may be overlooking?

JOE STRAUSS
There is an obvious need to replace what Joel Pineiro represented this year. The Cardinals were a pitching-dominant team for much of this season, so much so that their offensive deficiencies were masked until September’s fade. Should Holliday go elsewhere, the Cardinals may spend more resources on a starting pitcher since they concede there is no way to replace Holliday with a single offensive talent. The public clamor for Boston Red Sox free agent Jason Bay is likely to go unanswered. It’s increasingly likely the club will seek to fortify its bullpen with an established set-up reliever to front Ryan Franklin. Think a Russ Springer type, not a Billy Wagner type.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals must have an everyday third baseman, something they didn’t have until Mark DeRosa was reasonably healthy in late July. And, of course, there is no guarantee he will be back. Also, the Cardinals must put together a bench with more firepower, especially from the standpoint of adding a veteran hitter.

JEFF GORDON
This team needs a proven power arm for the right side of the bullpen. That person could graduate into the closing role if Ryan Franklin is unable to regain his ’09 regular season form. And this team could also use a proven left-handed starting pitcher to balance up the rotation. Also, this team needs a lefty bat for the bench — somebody with some pop. So there is lots to do here.

DAN O’NEILL
Without question, the Cardinals have to improve their bench. Signing Mark DeRosa would go a long way toward that goal in that he can play several positions and he hits with power. It could also be that the club has more help for the bench from its Memphis affiliate (Allen Craig?). But certainly, the Cardinals need a bench crew that includes a good defensive infielder and a couple of bats that make the opposing manager pay attention.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
One of the spots in the starting rotation will still have to be filled with a Major League starter. I can’t envision the team giving Joel Pineiro a long-term contract based on one strong season, so with he and John Smoltz filing for free agency the team currently has two rotation spots open. The wise move would be to fill one of them with a solid veteran — maybe bringing Smoltz back — while leaving the fifth spot for someone like Jaime Garcia to claim in spring training.

I don’t think anyone is really overlooking this part of the team but while Matt Holliday is the big name we’re all talking about, let’s not forget that this team was carried largely by the starting rotation in ’09 and they’ll have to make sure someone is there to replace what Pineiro gave them this past season.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals cannot get Matt Holliday re-signed and that Jason Bay stays with Boston, who are some other options out there that you think the Cardinals should pursue to man left field?

JOE STRAUSS
First, it is premature to assume either premise. Holliday’s market may not be as firm as some insist, especially if Bay returns to Boston and the New York Yankees remain on the periphery. But playing along, the leading free agent outfielders remain Bobby Abreu, a Type A who can steal bases but is also a very limited defender who has suffered a significant ebb in power. The Cardinals literally return to where they started if Holliday leaves, becoming a Pujols-centric attack almost forced to put Ryan Ludwick into the cleanup role.

If the club is serious about giving David Freese a chance to win the third base job, its best options become a trade for an outfielder. John Mozeliak acquired Troy Glaus under duress before the ’08 season. It is feasible that the Washington Nationals make Adam Dunn available this winter before he enters the walk year of his deal. Dunn is owed $10 million next season, a relative bargain in comparison to a 6-8 year deal for Holliday or a 4-year splurge on Bay. Bay, however, represents an extremely good fit in St. Louis should talks with the Red Sox stall.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the reasons the Cardinals’ push for Matt Holliday is so pivotal to their 2010 roster is there is a steep plummet from the class of Holliday and Jason Bay to the other free agents out there this winter. Not one of them is an obvious candidate to hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols like either of those top-shelf left fielders would be. Bobby Abreu or Vlad Guerrero may have the name recognition to do so, but they don’t have that everyday, NL look at this point in their careers.

A name in that second or third tier of free agents that intrigues is Xavier Nady, one year removed from a 97-RBI turn with Pittsburgh and the New York Yankees. He lost 2009 to injury, but had back-to-back 20-homer seasons before that. Nady would be an interesting instant-scratch ticket. Some low-risk options could be found in the secondary market — the players non-tendered by teams. According to reports, the Florida Marlins are likely to non-tender Jeremy Hermida, a lapsed top prospect, and former Brave outfielder Jeff Francoeur could be set free by the New York Mets. Not the big-splash, big bat the Cardinals crave for the middle of the lineup. But if they whiff on Holliday it may be where the Cardinals have to go to supplement the in-house candidates and hope lightning strikes left field.

RICK HUMMEL
Give Allen Craig, one of the top power hitters in Class AAA at Memphis, a glove and work him out in left field all spring. His bat may be good enough but possibly not his defense. Otherwise, sign DeRosa, if his wrist is deemed all right, and make him more or less a full-time outfielder.

JEFF GORDON
I would keep Mark DeRosa and play him in the outfield, if it is determined Skip Schumaker is the long-haul solution at 2B. I’m not sure you can find somebody else with solid 20-homer, 80-RBI potential in free agency. This could also open the door for somebody like Allen Craig to get some OF at bats when De Rosa takes some starts at 3B to spell Freese or 2B when Skip gets a break against lefties.

There isn’t much to deal for, say, a Josh Willingham-type. A guy like Xavier Nady could be interesting to rehab.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you feel should be the Cardinals top priority this offseason?

JOE STRAUSS
Obviously, getting a handle on Matt Holliday’s situation is significant because of what signing him would do to the club’s financial flexibility. Likewise, losing him to free agency frees up significant money to pursue another direction. Holliday is Scott Boras’ leading free agent this winter. Boras typically leaves his top client on the market for an extended period. This tendency does not square with the Cardinals’ desire for a quick resolution. If Holliday reaches the open market, the Cardinals’ task in signing him becomes exponentially more difficult, so much so that Jason Bay’s name now freely floats within the organization. The team’s late-season meltdown against “plus” pitching underscores the need for further improvement.

DERRICK GOOLD
This very public eagerness to work on an extension with Albert Pujols strikes me as a non-traditional strategy, especially with two years remaining on his contract and his leverage likely never better with a second consecutive MVP on the way. It makes sense to do eventually, but why the push to do it now? Unless they want to do something in concert to make sure when they add a new player Pujols is still the highest-paid player . . . hmm. Simply, the priority should be outfitting the lineup around Pujols, Mr. I Want to Stay With a Contender, and to do that with the best bat that fits — the team’s finances, the team’s structure and the team’s approach, all of it. That still is Matt Holliday. Linking his best years to Pujols’ best years is in everyone’s interest.

RICK HUMMEL
The top priority is to explore the prospect of re-signing OF Matt Holliday to a long-term deal. If not, I would offer him arbitration (to make sure of getting two draft picks) and he might even accept that if there isn’t a long-term deal he likes anywhere.

JEFF GORDON
Top priority: Lock-up Albert Pujols for the long haul. Once that is done, the cornerstone is secured and all the other decisions will fall into place. The other matters are minor compared to this one. If he can’t be secured during this offseason, for whatever reason, then the need to re-sign Matt Holliday increases — since this team will need somebody to build a batting order around from 2012 on.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Bringing back the manager and the pitching coach would be at the top of my list. I’m not sure Matt Holliday is worth what the market will bear, so I wouldn’t rate him No. 1. Plus the team has kids like Allen Craig and Jon Jay who may prove worthy of an opportunity to do in 2010 what Colby Rasmus did in 2009. In fact, I’m almost leaning toward letting all the kids battle for the open roster spots early in the year and then dealing for veterans, if necessary, come June or July. I think what the team did this year worked quite well and I’d follow that pattern again just in case guys like Craig, Jay, David Freese, Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth and Mitchell Boggs have breakthroughs. Spend the money to get Albert re-signed and then deal for veterans in-season, if necessary.