THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Last year Ryan Franklin struggled in the closer’s role, as did almost everyone else the Cardinals tried there. This year Franklin has pretty much been nails. Has Franklin made physical adjustments to find greater success or were his problems last year more psychological? Is there any reason to believe he can’t continue to see success this season?

JOE STRAUSS
It’s always easier to pitch when you’re not looking over your shoulder, and Franklin had Jason Isringhausen there last year. There was some uncertainty how long anyone would hold that role. That is far more the reason for Franklin’s success this season than anything mechanical. That situation simply isn’t present this year.

DERRICK GOOLD
Ryan Franklin conceded late last season that he was uncomfortable closing when Jason Isringhausen was healthy and present in the bullpen because he respected Isringhausen as the incumbent, the team’s preferred closer, and the elder statesman of the bullpen. When Isringhausen wasn’t there, Franklin was mostly fine as the club’s closer. You connect the dots. As with almost any reliever in the bullpen, it always helps to know your role and always hurts to look over your shoulder. For much of last season, there were fistfuls of relievers who didn’t know the former and did too much of the latter. This season, Franklin can read the assignments, see that the ninth is being held for him and know there’s no need to wonder if someone is coming up from behind — or if someone more deserving is lurking.

He’s not filling in for the once or future closer. He is the closer. Big difference.

RICK HUMMEL
Last year, Franklin might have been looking over his shoulder a bit. Jason Isringhausen had been the longtime closer and then when Isringhausen asked out of that role, Franklin was thrust into it but may have felt he was just holding the fort until Isringhausen came back. Franklin may think the job is his now. And don’t forget, he did have 17 saves last year, so he wasn’t a total washout.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Franklin has been successful to date because he has been more of a strikeout pitcher, especially against right-handed hitters. A year ago, right-handed batters hit .285 with only 30 strikeouts in 186 at-bats against Franklin. Going into tonight’s game at Washington, he has held right-handed hitters to a .118 average with six strikeouts in 17 at-bats. He has tied up right-handed hitters with increased down-and-in movement on the sinking fastball.

The fewer balls put in play against a closer, the better his chances of preserving a narrow lead. If Franklin can continue to rack up strikeouts at his current rate of one per inning, he could mantain as the closer. If he goes back to being the pitcher who averaged only 5.83 strikeouts per nine innings last season, he will have problems.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Franklin looks great right now. He’s painting the corners with regularity, his fastball has great life and he’s been a stabilizing force for the team’s bullpen. That said, there is cause for concern — Franklin’s 2nd half splits. From 2006-2008, Franklin was a 7-6 pitcher with a 2.87 ERA and 12 saves in 19 chances before the All-Star break. After the break? Try on 9-11 with a 4.80 ERA and just 6 saves in 15 chances for size.

I know the past doesn’t predict the future — thank God for that — but when you’re looking for performance patterns in a 36-year-old reliever I don’t think it’s being “negative” to see cause for concern with those splits.

THE WATERCOOLER

FEARLESS FORECAST: It seems something unexpected happens personnel-wise almost every spring before the Cardinals break camp in Jupiter. If you were to make one prediction of something that may surprise fans by the time this year’s team heads north, what would it be?

RICK HUMMEL
Chris Duncan, healed from disk surgery in his neck, will be at least a platoon player in left field and will start against most righthanded pitching. Duncan is the club’s best No. 2 hitter ahead of Albert Pujols because he knows the strike zone better than Ankiel or Ludwick and will draw a walk, if necessary, to have a man on in front of Pujols. Duncan then would be replaced for defense in the late innings by Schumaker or whomever.

DERRICK GOOLD
The five starters the Cardinals take north to open the season will not be the five starters that they currently have penciled into the rotation. But Chris Carpenter WILL BE one of those five, healthy and ready.

JOE STRAUSS
A third candidate will emerge as closer and there will be a surprise importation of another lefthanded reliever.

JEFF GORDON
Here is something that would surprise fans: The Cardinals will make a significant addition before the team heads north. Fans seem to believe the roster is frozen. It is not. If a team need becomes glaring during camp — due to further injuries or the failures of young players — John Mozeliak will have options. Remember, Mo professed happiness with his pitching last spring right up to the point when he signed Kyle Lohse.

BRYAN BURWELL
The biggest surprise of spring training will be the re-emergence of Chris Duncan as a productive offensive weapon. he’s healthy again for the first time in two years.

TOM ACKERMAN (Manager of Sports Operations at KMOX)
Career minor leaguer Joe Thurston lands the starting assignment at second base on Opening Day. Sure, there are more familiar names in the second base competition: Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumaker, maybe even Joe Mather. But unlike Adam Kennedy, Ryan is a righthanded hitter. And Schumaker and Mather would have to make an extraordinary adjustment to switch from OF to 2B in the big leagues. There are a couple of reasons why the Cardinals acquired Thurston — he hits lefthanded and fields his position well. And his offensive numbers last season at Pawtucket (AAA) were more than adequate for 507 at-bats: .316, 11 HR, 64 RBI. He posted a .367 OBP, scored 83 runs and swiped 19 bases. Not bad. Thurston will turn 30 this season; he’s paid his dues. If he can turn a consistent double play with Khalil Greene and get on base this spring, he’ll get the nod.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO: I think folks were mostly fed up with Scott Rolen by the time he left town. I don’t see anyone shedding tears for unemployed Jason Isringhausen right now, even though he had a great run in St. Louis. Oh, and who can forget Tino Martinez? I’m sure there are many examples of former Cardinals who folks here were glad to see go. Tell us your Top 10.

I bring this up due to a great piece the Boston Globe has on its Web site. The headline reads, “Don’t go away mad, just go away: Worst Sox breakups.” It takes a look at the top relationships that ended badly between players, fans and the front office. Check it out.

WIE’S WACKY RIDE: Michelle Wie long-irked members of the LPGA as she took one sponsor’s exemption after another to try to compete against the men on the PGA Tour. The results were predictable. But Wie finally went to Q-school and got her LPGA tour card and on Thursday Wie made her debut as a full-time member of the LPGA. Now, perhaps, we can find out exactly how good the 19-year-old Wie can become. She started well, shooting a 6-under 66 Thursday that left her just one stroke off the lead.

Hmmm, it makes one wonder how many tournaments Wie possibly could have won already at such a young age if she had started in the more traditional manner. Still, she’s likely laughing all the way to the bank with all the money she’s gotten in endorsements due to the path she chose.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

JORDAN SET FOR HOF: The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame will announce its 2009 election results in early April. Leading the 16 finalists for this year’s induction are Michael Jordan, John Stockton and David Robinson — all three presumably shoo-ins. But there is a sad note here … I can’t believe Jordan is already going into the Hall of Fame. Seems like just yesterday when I was watching him as rookie with the Bulls, back when he had a little hair, wore the short-shorts and actually wore a thick, gold chain around his neck.

I’m sure we all reach those moments in our life when a simple thing will pop up making you realize the years are passing all too quickly. What’s next, the beautiful Bionic Woman pimping geriatic prodcuts on TV commercials? Oh, wait …

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ON THIS DATE

FEB. 13, 1996 — The St. Louis Cardinals complete a long-rumored swap, acquiring closer Dennis Eckersley from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for minor league reliever Steve Montgomery. … The Cardinal also announce that they are laying nearly three acres of grass over the field at Busch Stadium, replacing the artificial turf that has been used for 26 years.
(SOURCE: Baseballreference.com)