THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Joel Pineiro will take the mound vs. the Mets tomorrow night sporting a 2.84 ERA on the season. Pineiro has far exceeded expectations this season with a renewed emphasis on the sinker. As he will hit free agency at the end of this season, and given the many other Cardinals players also reaching free agency, what do you think the chances are that the team will be able to lock up Pineiro to a new contract?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals gave Kyle Lohse $41 million over four years last September. Based on numbers other than win percentage, Pineiro is enjoying a better season. It’s hard to imagine Pineiro taking a significant lower Annual Average Value than Lohse, who did agree to backload his deal. A baseline of 3 years/$27 million may be discussed. Length of contract may be more an obstacle than AAV. It’s a matter of priorities, which underscores the organization’s need to read the Matt Holliday situation. If Holliday is extended, the club may have to scrimp on starting pitcher or delay talks of an extension with Albert Pujols. It already appears a mortal lock that next year’s No. 5 starter will come from within the organization (Garcia, Walter, Boggs, Hawksworth, McClellan). Look for any deal(s) to be weighted heavily after 2011, when several deals now on the books expire.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll have a much better chance if they lock him in as they did Kyle Lohse last year, i.e. before he goes out on the open market. Believe it or not, Pineiro, because of his outstanding control and ability to keep the ball in the ball park, will be one of the most sought-after pitching free agents.

DERRICK GOOLD
Today, those chances seem minimal. Joel Pineiro has the look of a pitcher who will follow Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, heck, even Jeff Weaver, and so many other reanimated pitchers on the path out of town. His reinvention as a sinkerball pitcher has been well-timed and mutually beneficial — the Cardinals are getting his performance in a division-title race and he’ll get the benefit of recasting his career in a contract year. The one catch is this: Are the Cardinals convinced they have a pitcher ready to move into that spot? Are they willing to turn two spots in the rotation over to a competition of Todd Wellemeyer and minor leaguers like P.J. Walters, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.? If Pineiro is gone — and most likely he is — the Cardinals better be content with who’s coming up or be willing to pay to replace him.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
If the Cardinals act early, it will improve their chances. Pineiro has reinvented himself this year; his ground-ball rate of 73.3 is the best in the majors to this point. I think Pineiro is smart enough to realize he has a great pitching coach and a terrific situation here. That said, we’ve seen jumpy MLB teams give insane contracts to pitchers, so if Pineiro hits the open market, he could be very attractive to some bigger-market teams that need a 4th or 5th starter.

GERRY FRALEY
Pineiro’s agent, Adam Katz, is a realist, and that bodes well for the Cardinals.

The coming free-agent market could be flush with top starting pitchers. Righthanders Josh Beckett, Rich Harden and John Lackey and lefthanders Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn could all be available this fall.

Pineiro has pitched well this season, but he still runs the risk of being squeezed on the free-agent market and forced to take a leftover of an offer. If the Cardinals make a fair offer, Pineiro and Katz would be wise to take the sure thing.

The alternative is to become the next Jeff Weaver. He has had a rocky ride since his standout performance for the Cardinals in their 2006 run to the World Series title. Weaver jumped to Seattle in 2007, and did not make it through the season. He spent all of last season and part of this year in the minors before making it back with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a long reliever-spot starter.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d call it 60-40 in favor of Pineiro being kept around. Both he and Wellemeyer are up after the season and the Cards don’t appear to have two Major League ready kids to take those spots heading into 2010, nor does it seem likely that Welly is brought back. In that case you almost have to re-sign Pineiro unless his demands are outrageous.

Not counting the contracts of Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa (because they came in later in the season) the Cards will have roughly $40 million freed up after the season, though that includes Pineiro’s money and the contracts of Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. Keeping Holliday would knock $15-18 million off that right off the top, leaving $22-25 million for Pineiro, DeRosa, Ludwick and any other potential free agents they’d like to retain (Ankiel, Jason LaRue, Trever Miller, etc.). Things could be tight unless payroll goes back up to the 2008 level next year.

If Pineiro isn’t looking for a Kyle Lohse contract of 4 years and $41 million (which is what I’d be asking for if I were his agent) then his chances of staying will be better. If he is seeking that big deal the Cards will be facing some difficult decisions.

THE WATERCOOLER:

QUESTION: Should Chris Carpenter be the starter for the NL in the All-Star game? Going into tonight’s game, he is 4-0 with a 0.71 ERA in 38 innings (not enough to qualify for the league leaders). Johan Santana of the Mets is 7-3 and 2.00 and San Francisco’s Matt Cain is 7-1, 2.27.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Obviously, Carpenter needs to stay healthy and roll up enough starts to qualify as the league’s ERA leader. And he must continue to pitch very well to have a shot because there’s no shortage of excellent starting pitchers in the NL. Because Santana (compared to Carpenter) hasn’t missed a start, you’d have to rate him as the top NL pitcher to this point. Santana has won seven games, but in his three losses he’s given up only three earned runs (total). This is shaping up to be a very competitive field. Do not discount the chances of Dan Haren, Johnny Cueto, Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson and Yovani Gallardo. Heck, Jason Marquis leads the NL with eight wins. It’s been an exceptional season so far for NL starting pitchers. And even though Carpenter has that miniscule ERA (0.71) he has some catching up to do because he missed time while on the DL.

RICK HUMMEL:
Not off what he’s done _ yet. Carpenter would have to have seven or eight wins by the time the players, coaches and managers conclude their voting for pitchers later this month. Santana and Lincecum are my choices right now.

DERRICK GOOLD:
If looking for an All-Star Game starter tonight - right this moment - I would lean more toward the pitcher Chris Carpenter opposes tonight than picking Chris Carpenter. Florida’s Josh Johnson has had an impressive and All-Star-worthy season so far, and unlike Carpenter he didn’t miss a hunk of time. It’s absence that really hurts Carpenter’s candidacy as the starter for the All-Star Game. The list of pitchers ahead of him for that honor starts with Johan Santana, includes Johnson, and has Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Chad Billingsley near the top, too. Carpenter is pitching like an All-Star, sure, and if he gets that deserved invitation to the game he should be the second pitcher in. That way the hometown crowd gets a hometown battery when Carpenter throws to Yadier Molina.

DAN O’NEILL:
As much as I admire Chris Carpenter as a competitor and talent, there’s no way he should be the starter for the NL in the All-Star Game - unless no one else wants to do it. Often, and rightfully so, All-Star recognition is based, at least in part, on what a player might have done the previous season. Carpenter missed all of last season. Moreover, he has missed quite a bit of the first half of the 2009 season. Coming into Tuesday evening’s start Carpenter had participated in six of the club’s 58 games and 38 of its 527 innings. Granted, they have been All-Star quality contributions. But for me, a player has to be a bit more involved and demonstrate more of a track record than that. It’s basically the same argument as to why Manny Ramirez had no business being considered for the NL Most Valuable Player award last season.

JEFF GORDON:
He has barely pitched for three seasons so, no, he shouldn’t start in the All-Star Game. Albert Pujols will do a fine job as the Cardinals front man for that weekend. Cards fans would love to see him pitch an inning, to honor his persistence on the comeback trail, but that would be plenty. Now, if he keeps winning all season, then we can talk about his Cy Young candidacy. THAT he can win.

GERRY FRALEY:
Sentiment says Randy Johnson should start for the NL. That would recognize his remarkable accomplishment of winning 300 games and also create the possibility of seeing Johnson terrorize a left-handed hitter as he did John Kruk and Larry Walker in previous All-Star appearances. On sheer performance, Santana is the choice. He goes into tonight’s play leading the NL in ERA and has operated with a minute margin of error all season. The Mets have scored three runs or fewer in seven of his 11 starts. Santana’s wins include a pair of 1-0 games and a 2-1 victory. Here’s a vote for having the NL starter work the maximum three innings. Greg Maddux is the last All-Star starter to pitch the maximum three innings, in 1994. The new-face-every-inning approach creates late-game problems that can cause managers to over-extend remaining pitchers.

THE WATERCOOLER

(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: Did the Yankees overspend for CC Sabathia?

RICK HUMMEL
For anybody else, I would say yes. The Yankees, no. With a new ballpark and huge ticket prices (they will be sold out every game), the Yankees have almost unlimited resources. They also haven’t been to the World Series since 2003 and haven’t won it since 2000. And what better way to move the Mets and K-Rod off the back pages than to sign CC?

DERRICK GOOLD
Yes. But when has that ever stopped them? It’s like Atlanta manager Bobby Cox said here Monday: “You’ve got to do what you’ve got to do.” That’s what the Yankees had to do.

BRYAN BURWELL
The Yanks probably did overspend on him, but when you’re basically negotiating against yourself, that usually happens. But here’s the bigger puzzle with the Sabathia deal. Does he really want to be in NY in the first place or is he only going because the money is so overwhelming? By all indications, that extra year at $20 million seems to be a NYC usage tax (he clearly was reluctant to go there and that extra money and length of contract was what it took to get him to sign). And that puts him in a delicate competitive predicament with Yankee fans, who are harsh and overly demanding anyway. It’s no exageration (well, a slight one) to believe that Sabathia will be expected by Yankee fans to produce nothing less than three Cy Youngs, three World Series rings and a couple World Series MVPs. I just hope he has the guts to deal with the ridiculous expectations that come with playing in the city. Not everyone can handle it.

JEFF GORDON
Yes, the Yankees overspent for Sabathia. The franchise can afford to overspend, but that doesn’t make it smart. CC is the ultimate workhorse, but he does NOT bring New York a classic shutdown postseason starter. New York could have purchased a couple of other high-end hurlers for that same price. And imagine what $161 million over seven years would yield through the traditional means of team building. For that kind of money, a franchise could clean up in Latin America and grab one of the Scott Boras pitching studs in each amateur draft (they usually drop to the big spenders). That money could allow a franchise to build the best-ever scouting network and flood its minor-league system with elite instructors.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

MARQUIS JAMMING UP MARQUEE DEAL: According to a report in the San Diego Union-Tribune, former-Cardinal and current-Cubs pitcher Jason Marquis might be part of the holdup in the Cubs getting Jake Peavy from the Padres. Marquis, who has been on the trade block for weeks, “has been the hangup” to getting the Peavy talks moving, the paper reports. The Padres want the Cubs to pay more than half of Marquis’ salary if they take him. Other clubs also are asking for a large discount.

Imagine that, Marquis finally doing something to help the Cardinals.

IT COULD BE WORSE: As Cardinal fans wait … and wait … and wait to see what GM John Mozeliak is able to get done at this week’s winter meetings, just remember that it could be worse. You could be a Brewers fan. Not only did the Brewers lose Sabathia to the Yankees via free agency, but they are likely to see the longtime pitching face of the club, Ben Sheets, walk away soon, too. That’s a heavy hit for any rotation. And the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that the Yankees signing of Sabathia was the ulimate rude awakening for Brewers GM Doug Melvin.

I guess the Brewers got what they wanted out of their short-term “rental” of Sabathia — a playoff appearance. But for that brief postseason appearance the Brewers dealt über-prospect Matt LaPorta (coming to a Major League outfield near you soon) to Cleveland along with three other minor leaguers. On the flipside, as Class A free agents, Sabathia and Sheets will net the Brewers two high picks next June after they’ve both signed with other clubs. So there is that.

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A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

IF A TREE FALLS IN THE FOREST … If the Rams final two home games of the season (vs. Seattle Sunday and San Francisco Dec. 21) are blacked-out on TV because of an abundance of tickets remaining, will anyone notice? I don’t know how anyone can blame fans for not buying tickets. I’ve been to almost every home game this season and with the team often trailing by huge margins by halftime, the environment is miserable. And I’m getting paid to be there.

THE STEEN MACHINE: Folks let me know yesterday that they thought I was a little premature in judging Blues acquisition Alex Steen. Per my expectations, many of you correctly reminded me that Brad Boyes didn’t exactly burn it up upon his arrival with the Blues either. But that’s worked out OK. Then Tom Timmermann does an excellent piece on Steen in this morning’s paper that points out that the kid definitely has skills, but perhaps he just needs time to find his niche with his new team. Taking all of that into account, I’m calling myself out and taking a wait-and-see approach. And if he starts to light the lamp with some regularity at any point this season, feel free to remind me not to be so quick to pass judgment next time.

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STAT OF THE DAY

5.4 — That’s the yards-per-carry through 13 games this season for Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams. Questioned as an every-down back while splitting carries with DeShaun Foster the past two seasons, and still overlooked among the games’s elite runners, Williams has carried the ball 213 times for 1,144 yards and 13 TDs. For good measure, he’s tacked on two TDs receiving also. The scary thing is imagining Williams numbers if his teammate, rookie running back Jonathan Stewart, hadn’t siphoned off 141 carries (to the tune of 5.0 YPC and 8 TDs.)