THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Missouri seemingly lost half of its starting players to the NFL a few weeks ago. With names like Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, William Moore, Ziggy Hood and others moving on, what are the chances Mizzou can come even close to repeating its success of the past couple seasons? Has coach Gary Pinkel restocked enough for next year’s team to pick up where last year’s team left off?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Mizzou has established a baseline and has plenty of talent, even if a lot of it is unseasoned. But it’s hard to imagine you can replace the best quarterback in school history, two of the most intimidating offensive players in the nation in Maclin and Coffman and the most accurate kicker in NCAA history (Jeff Wolfert) and not sag. I think the defense actually will be improved, but I’d be amazed if the whole package is immediately as good as the last two seasons. That said, if you looked at the Big 12 schedule today, MU probably would be favored in five or six of its eight games. I actually think they can contend for the North crown but will be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-3.

JEFF GORDON
Getting to the high side of .500 and reaching a minor bowl game would be huge accomplishments, all considering. Is there life after Brad Smith and Chase Daniel? That is the multi-million dollar question. The Tigers will be able to run the ball and catch it, but what about the man at the controls? The sample from last season was much too small to judge.

MIKE SMITH
God bless the Tigers mentioned above, but honestly, didn’t that group basically check out last season after the home loss to Okie State and the stampede at Texas?

This season, Mizzou can diversify its offense with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback and undervalued backs Derrick Washington and De’Vion Moore running behind a decent line. There’s no doubting Gabbert’s physical tools, but these issues/questions remain:

1) He’s almost three years removed from spending an entire fall playing competitive football (Daniel’s understudy in 2008; injured most of 2007.)

2) Who will he throw to besides TE Andrew Jones? After Jared Perry and Danario Alexander — both injured this spring — the roster of wideouts is nondescript.

3) Can he lead his teammates? Blaine Gabbert was all about Blaine Gabbert when he played for Parkway West, but perhaps Pinkel has brow-beaten that attitude out of him by now.

Defensively, the Tigers automatically are better because they’re under new management (Eberflus out, Steckel in). Bottom line: a 4-0 nonconference season followed by a 5-3 Big 12 campaign and another minor bowl trip TBA (I mean, Big 12 favorite sons Nebraska and Kansas have to first decide which bowls they want to attend, THEN Mizzou can be accommodated).

TOM TIMMERMANN
There’s no way Mizzou can be as good next year as last year. They lost too much talent, and while the replacements may someday be as good or better, they won’t be next season. But that doesn’t mean Mizzou can’t win the Big 12 North. The league’s talent remains in the South, and Kansas is the competition to win the division and go back to the conference championship game. So by that standard, that Mizzou has a very good chance of being back in the Big 12 final, they will be picking up where they left off. But they’ll probably get thumped by every South Division team they play.

KATHLEEN NELSON
The Tigers have enough players who contributed last year to make another run at the Big 12 North. The offense will feature a veteran running back, Derrick Washington, a pair of wide receivers with big play experience, Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, and the bulk of the offensive line. The defense probably will rely on NT Jaron Baston and linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Luke Lambert. Perhaps the relative inexperience of the squad is a plus. Last year’s defense and departed coordinator Matt Eberflus took heaps of criticism. A blank slate could do these guys good.

Given the inexperience on defense and the first year for QB Blaine Gabbert, fans shouldn’t expect much more than a fight for the division, though.

BILL COATS
The solid recruiting that Pinkel and his staff have accomplished in recent yearS is paying off. Mizzou lost a lot, but it returns a lot, too. The Tigers have enough to be in the hunt for another Big 12 North title.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Many NFL scouts seem to rank Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree as the top WR in this year’s draft and Mizzou’s Jeremy Maclin as No. 2. However, others seem to think Maclin will have the more immediate impact in the NFL because of his ability to not only catch the ball, but in returning punts and kicks, too. Looking into your crystal ball, which of these receivers do you believe will have the more impactful NFL career?

JIM THOMAS
There are questions about Crabtree’s foot and attitude. His diva attitude during pre-draft visits turned off the Rams and the Browns (who pick fifth overall) to the point where neither team is considering Crabtree for their first-round pick. There are no character flaws with Maclin, who is a gamer with the added bonus of return ability. The vote here is for Maclin.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Maclin. I think he’s faster and more explosive. He’s got the ability to change a game with his big-play potential as a return man. He’s dangerous after he makes the catch. And Maclin is a relentless worker who constantly strives for improvement. Crabtree has formidable talent, but he is also a diva, and is probably going to give a coaching staff headaches with his ego eruptions. Maclin isn’t that kind of kid. His personality is a plus.

BRYAN BURWELL
This is a fascinating decision for any team in search of an impact wideout. Maclin can affect the outcome of games as a punt and kick returner immediately and will prove to be, at the very least, a deep threat receiver who will stretch the field. Will he prove to be a disciplined route runner?
Yes. He’s as intelligent a student of the game as they come. Crabtree is a bit more of a finished receiver for now, and he’s on a P.R. blitz now, trying to diminish talk out of Cleveland that he is a diva with a troublesome entourage.

This is a difficult choice because i know Maclin but have never spent any time with Crabtree to assess his so-called character questions. But on tape, Crabtree is an absolute beast.

JEFF GORDON
Some teams have developed serious reservations about Crabtree — and not just because of his health. On the other hand, Maclin is a small guy with a lengthy injury history. So this is a bit of a toss up. I’ll pick Crabtree for the bigger impact, because size matters in the NFL. He is a playmaker. As long as he stays away from the Detroit Lions, he should be fine.

BILL COATS
I’ll take Maclin, and not just for his value as a return man. He has a great attitude and has shown a willingness to hone his craft. Crabtree, on the other hand, might be held back by his massive ego, which has turned off some NFL personnel folks. Stepping up to the NFL level never is easy, no matter your college resume, and those who realize that usually have the best outcomes.

VAHE GREGORIAN
Maclin is more versatile and slightly faster, but Crabtree is a notch taller (6-3 to 6-1), catches the ball better in traffic and appears stronger and more durable. I don’t think Maclin could have made the play Crabtree made to beat Texas, though I don’t think Crabtree can separate from crowds like Maclin can. Each should be a really good pro, but gut feeling is Crabtree will be more decorated by the end of his career.

GERRY FRALEY
Jeremy Maclin could be the next Eric Metcalf: a speed-first hybrid player who made a mark as a receiver and a kick returner. Metcalf made three Pro Bowl appearances in a 14-year NFL career.

Michael Crabtree could be the next Michael Irvin: a bull-rusher of a wide receiver who overpowered defenders during a Hall of Fame career.

At 6 feet 3 and 215 pounds, Crabtree has a significant size and strength advantage over Maclin. Crabtree will have an easier time getting off the line against press coverage and will get to more throws because of a longer wingspan. Crabtree will win most one-on-one battles for a ball.

Maclin will be a quality NFL player. Crabtree will be a dominant force.

KATHLEEN NELSON
Whoever stays healthier will have a longer-lasting impact. Crabtree is the better route runner and is believed to have better hands. Maclin is more versatile, but could get pigeon-holed as a return guy, unless he improves his route-running. Give the edge to Maclin if he improves in that area.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: With Drew Bennett already cut and now Torry Holt asking for his release, how early do you see the St. Louis Rams targeting a wide receiver in this year’s draft? Are there still quality options after Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin are gone, or will the Rams have to consider striking early for a quality WR?

JIM THOMAS
Let’s see what the rest of free agency brings, but there aren’t really many options left, at least younger ones. As for the draft, the problem with taking a wide receiver at No. 2 overall is that you still need an offensive tackle. If the Rams opt for a receiver at the top of the second round, Kenny Britt of Rutgers and Brian Robiskie of Ohio State are possibilities.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Barring a trade or free-agent signing, the Rams will have to make WR a priority in the draft. If they don’t go for Jeremy Maclin or Michael Crabtree in the first round — hopefully after trading down — they’ll have to take a hard look at WR in Round 2. But they can’t pass on a better player at another position. They can’t force it. Finding a taller more physical receiver might have to wait for next year’s wish list.

JEFF GORDON
Crabtree is an option, of course, but LB Aaron Curry looks like a great pick for the defensive side — and you have to believe Spags will push for him. The Rams are going to run a ground-control offense. This will be a run-first team. Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton both have nice upsides. The free-agent wide receiver pool isn’t great, but the Rams ought to at least add depth with a veteran and then pick somebody later in the draft for more depth.

KATHLEEN NELSON
I think the Rams first might try to get one of the geezer wideouts to provide a little stability. Drafting a first-rounder and throwing him immediately into the fire would be unfair to the draftee. Remember when the Rams drafted Torry Holt? Isaac Bruce was the man, and Holt had a role model from whom to learn. I wonder how Torry would have fared as the undisputed No. 1. I’d bet not as well as he did; Bruce took the pressure off Holt

****

MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

HOLT AMONG GAME’S ELITE? I heard a ridiculous discussion on the radio last night about whether or not Torry Holt was one of the game’s “great” receivers during his time in the league. Are you kidding me? As Jim Thomas pointed out in his story today, Holt, the No. 6 overall pick in the 1999 draft, has caught more passes (817) for more yards (11,872) than any receiver in the NFL this decade. Need more perspective … Thomas provided it. Over Holt’s 10-year career, his average of 80.1 yards per game is the highest for any WR in league history. At the age of 32, Holt is 11th overall in career receptions (869) and 14th in career receiving yards (12,660). It’s guaranteed he’ll continue to build on those career numbers and move on up the list.

Anyone who looks at those numbers and doesn’t believe Torry Holt has been one of the league’s elite receivers over the last decade should just stop watching football. Right now. Turn it off. Watch rugby.

Now, with that said, it’s hard to say if the Rams would be making a mistake to cut Holt now. He is coming off his worst season ever. But generally speaking, WRs don’t necessarily deteriorate at the age-30 plateau as quickly as, say, RBs. Many WRs continue to put up decent numbers into their mid-30s. And how many of Holt’s reduced numbers in 2008 were a product of him losing a step, and how many of them were the product of a completely dysfunctional offense where the QB spent more time on his back than on his feet?

There are no easy answers here, and I believe Holt has played his last game as a Ram. But rather than celebrating his departure, I think Rams fans should celebrate all he gave this team for 10 years. Other than grumbling a bit at the end of last season as he was worked out of the offense, Holt was always a classy guy. There is no arguing the production he put up while here.

IT ALL STARTED WITH MADONNA: Long before the steroid revelations and the tearful apologies, I told you the A-Rod kingdom would fall sooner than expected … and it was because of the bad mojo he brought on himself for dating Madonna. Now, just days after saying A-Rod had a cyst on his hip that needed to be checked out, ESPN is reporting that Rodriguez needs surgery and will be out up to 10 weeks. This is the same cyst that earlier this week Yankees manager Joe Girardi said A-Rod had played with all last season. Of course, ESPN doesn’t have the news nailed down yet, and they are sourcing the story completely on something A-Rod’s brother said. So we’ll have to wait and see what’s really going on here.

I’m just thinking out loud here, but if I had a relationship with Madonna and I had a “cyst” on my hip, I’d be asking doctors to do all kinds of tests on that thing to find out exactly what it is. I’m just sayin’.

****

SOMETHING TO PONDER

CAN YOU IMAGINE? So we’re sitting here in the office this morning discussing Terrell Owen’s divorce from the Dallas Cowboys. Trouble has followed T.O. everywhere he’s been, like Schleprock in the Flintstones who always walked around with the dark cloud over his head. That said, his prolific numbers keep teams coming back for more. Which team, we wondered, would take a chance on T.O. My first thought was crazy Al Davis and the Oakland Raiders … but with a young coach and young QB, that might be too much for even the Raiders. And then this was mentioned: How about the Patriots? Holy cow, can you imagine the knocking knees of DBs if you were facing a Patriots offense with T.O. lined up on one side of the field and Randy Moss on the other … and with Tom Brady throwing them the ball. Unstoppable … on the field, at least. But chances are they’d never get that far as T.O. and Moss would likely implode the Patriots before mini-camps were even completed. Still, it’s an interesting thought and Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a record of making guys buy into team first … who knows.

Regardless, according to the Dallas Morning News this morning, Terrell Owens had to go. Some interesting thoughts considering how vital he was thought to be to the Cowboys and QB Tony Romo just a short while ago.

Just curious, if Torry Holt were to be released, would any Rams fans like to see T.O. end up in St. Louis?

****

THIS DAY IN HISTORY

MARCH 5, 1973 — New York Yankees pitchers Fritz Peterson and Mike Kekich announce that they have traded wives, kids and dogs. While Peterson eventually marries the former Susanne Kekich, Marilyn Peterson and Kekich soon part. (Source: “This Day in Baseball” by David Nemec and Scott Flatlow)

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: With 23 games remaining, the St. Louis Blues are six points back in the hunt for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. What must the Blues focus on performance-wise during this stretch run that will give them a shot of claiming a playoff spot?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
Just being consistent. The Blues were competitive in both Nashville games, continuing to battle against a hot goaltender. For their effort, they earned three out of a possible four points and could have had four. But last week, they weren’t competitive for two periods against Columbus, and they got what they deserved. The Blues are going to lose a handful of games in the final 23, but if they want to have a chance at the playoffs, they have to be competitive in all 23. And that means making a play — whether it’s a scoring chance or a save — when it’s there. The Blues have had chances in several games recently, including Saturday’s game versus Nashville, to make one more play . . . and it would have made the difference. They need that one play.

TOM TIMMERMANN
The Blues need to come out fast, score early, take a lead and then win in regulation. Overtime games won’t cut it. Comeback wins or overtime wins may be great for drama and emotion, but the overtime games are of limited help when it comes to points. Some first period energy — and goals — are what they need.

DAN O’NEILL
Because there are so many teams ahead of them, because the teams involved play so many games with each other down the stretch, because someone is always picking up points, it will be very difficult for the Blues to move into a playoff spot. In terms of performance, the most important factor for the Blues is goaltending. Chris Mason has to be a difference-maker if the team is to have any chance of winning the number of games it will take to make the jump.

JEFF GORDON
I talked to Rick Wamslety today and he really liked what Chris Mason had done in goal the last two months. And the team’s five-on-five play is much better, too. Roman Polak’s return has solidified the D. Now the Blues just have to score more — as we saw Tuesday night.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, Team 1380)
It goes without saying the Blues won’t win hockey games if they fail to score like we witnessed the other night against Nashville. The recipe for winning hockey doesn’t change here in the final 20-plus games left on the schedule. They need solid goaltending every night, which for the most part they have received as of late, to go along with a commitment to the defensive zone. The Blues are not going to scare anybody offensively during 5-on-5 play. This puts an even greater emphasis on the power play, which can’t let them down as it did on Saturday. Last but not least, the mentality must change in the 4-on-4 overtime. The Blues, to me, play too passively in OT, which is not a winning formula. I would like to see more urgency to play the best players, those who give your team the best chance to score and ultimately win the hockey game. The fact that Patrik Berglund, David Perron, and Carlo Colaiacovo didn’t even enter the ice Saturday during OT is inexcusable to me. How Jay McKee goes from not being able to crack the lineup a few days earlier to playing in OT is certainly a head scratcher.

ROGER HENSLEY
Remember when then-Kansas City Chiefs head coach Dick Vermeil told running back Larry Johnson it was time to “take off the diapers?” Remember how Johnson responded by becoming one of the league’s premier RBs? I think it’s about time for this Blues team to be told to take off the diapers. There are just too many ready-made excuses — from the team’s youth to injuries that still have a few key players off the ice. Instead of focusing on that, however, it’s time to focus on what they do have. There is a stable of thoroughbreds over there at the Scottrade, guys plenty capable of getting the job done, and they’ve shown that against some elite teams. This team has been entertaining and hard-working all season. But now it’s time to finish the job … and that means finishing games. The Blues need to reel off a couple of mini-streaks to build the confidence and momentum they seem to lack. My message to this team would come from the Stuart Smalley collection: “You’re good enough, you’re skilled enough and, doggone it, people like you.”

****

MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

THE WARNER MYSTERY: Arizona QB Kurt Warner completed the 2008 regular season ranked in the league’s top five in completion percentage, passing yards, TD passes and passer rating. He led the Cardinals to the only playoff success they’ve had in the desert, taking the team all the way to the Super Bowl. Warner, 37, says he wants to play for the Cardinals next season. The Cardinals say they want Warner back. So why is it Warner is without a contract just four days before free agency opens in the NFL? ESPN.com’s Mike Sando says it’s because it is hard to put a value on Warner. But you can see what a few scouts think Warner’s contract value should be in Sando’s story today.

I predict Warner will sign a contract with the Cardinals in the next four days for one season at about $10.5 to $11 million. But who knows, maybe Brenda is telling Kurt to hold out for more.

MACLIN MAKES HIS MARK: The Chicago Tribune’s Dan Pompei had this to say about Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin from the NFL combine: “While running routes and catching the ball, (Maclin) looked like the best player on the field—which he was supposed to be. He also showed his resiliency by not missing a drill after injuring his leg while trying to adjust to a poorly thrown ball.”

Pompei takes a look at the ups and downs from yesterday’s workouts in this article.

****

SOMETHING TO PONDER

NO JOSHING AROUND: The remarkable story of Texas Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton has been well-chronicled. He broke free of addictions to crack, cocaine and alcohol in 2005 and has resurrected his career in a MVP fashion. This year, he went a step further, dropping his habit of chewing tobacco. That’s not an easy thing to do in a major league clubhouse, where so many of your buddies still reach for a can of dip. But Hamilton is used to doing things that aren’t easy. If you don’t know much about Hamilton, this story in today’s Dallas Morning News is an excellent way to catch up.

****

NUMBER OF THE DAY

$4.4 million — Total compensation for USC football coach Pete Carroll, making him the highest-paid private university employee in the United States for the 2006-07 fiscal year, according to a report today in the L.A. Times. Carroll’s Trojans have won two national titles, seven consecutive Pac 10 titles and have played in seven consecutive BCS bowl games.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Missouri wide receiver Jeremy Maclin reportedly is moving quickly up many draft boards. Maclin plans to run this weekend at the NFL Combine. He’ll likely work out before scouts at a pro day at Mizzou. Given his rising stock, where do you see Maclin being selected in the NFL draft?

JIM THOMAS
Maclin is widely considered the second-best wide receiver in the draft behind Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech. It now looks like he will be taken in the top 10. There’s no substitute for speed. Al Davis has believed this for decades. That’s why Maclin will go to Oakland with the No. 7 overall pick. Just throw deep, baby.

BILL COATS
Maclin is a two-headed monster: an accomplished wide receiver as well as a dangerous return man. The Rams could use both, but probably will use the No. 2 overall pick to address more pressing needs. So, my guess is that the Raiders, who also need a wideout and a returner, grab Maclin with the seventh pick in the first round.

KATHLEEN NELSON
The Jets could use a QB and a fast receiver. QBs like Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford should be long gone by the time the Jets pick. That leaves Maclin to the Jets at No. 17.

STU DURANDO
The consensus seems to be Oakland at No. 7 and that makes sense considering the Raiders’ lack of receivers. Now, if they can move up to get Michael Crabtree or if Crabtree miraculously falls that far, Maclin will drop, maybe to the Jets at No. 17. And because I cover Illinois football, I’ll add that cornerback Vontae Davis is also a projected first-rounder and could climb as high as Green Bay at No. 9.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Maclin is not going to be taken ahead of Michael Crabtree. And the teams that are willing to take receivers in the first round is limited. Still, there are the Oakland Raiders sitting there with the No. 7 pick, and the Raiders love to take guys who can go deep. Of course, who knows what the Raiders will do? So look for him there. If not, he may drop a bit.

JEFF GORDON
With Michael Crabtree losing stock value, Maclin could easily become a Top Ten pick in this draft. The Packers need help at receiver and Pro Football Talk’s mock draft has North Carolina receiver Hakeem Nicks going to Green Bay at No. 9. That seems like a reach, based on earlier assessments of Nicks. Maclin has to be a better pick there, right? Right?

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
How about the No. 7 pick to the Oakland Raiders? Al Davis loves game breakers, loves the deep ball, and needs someone who can bring that element to his team in ’09. The top two receivers on the Raiders’ depth chart right now, according to their own Web site, are Javon Walker (15 catches for 196 yards in ’08) and Ronald Curry (19 catches and 189 yards in ’08).

Even if they sign a big name free agent, Maclin still makes sense as a game changer who can stretch the field and also make the Raiders return game more dynamic. JaMarcus Russell needs receivers and Maclin will be the best on the board after the Seahawks take Michael Crabtree with the 4th pick. Maclin’s speed and explosiveness just scream, “Draft me, Mr. Davis!”

****

MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

I AM TIGER WOODS: “I’m now ready to play again.” And with those six words from Tiger Woods, golf tournament organizers and their sponsors began cheering from the mountaintops. Woods made the announcement yesterday that he will play in next week’s WGC-Accenture Match Play. The return of Woods will get the cash flowing at tournaments and for television advertising … geez, I’m thinking this one man might just save the whole economy from pending doom. Perhaps the late-Earl Woods was right when he predicted his son would do more than change golf, but that he would change the world.

Bill Dwyre of the Los Angeles Times apparently seems to agree. The headline on his column today reads, “Tiger Woods’ comeback is bigger than the game.”

IT’S NOT OVER YET: It looks like the Alex Rodriguez steroids saga is not over, and it may just be beginning. According to a report in today’s New York Daily News, A-Rod has had a longstanding relationship with a steroid-linked trainer. The Daily News says that Angel Presinal was banned from private areas of every MLB ballpark after an October 2001 incident involving an unmarked gym bag full of steroids, but that he has been close to A-Rod dating back to his time with the Rangers. A-Rod has said he only used from 2001-03, but a source tells the Daily News that “Presinal accompanied A-Rod for the entire 2007 season, staying in the same hotel as the A.L. MVP, but in a separate room with the “cousin” Rodriguez pegged three days ago as his steroid source from 2001-03.”

So do you believe A-Rod when he says he only used steroids from 2001-03? Stay tuned. It ain’t over ’til it’s over.

****

THINGS TO PONDER

THE WALTZ OF WALT: I was glad to see Keith Tkachuk get the game-winner in overtime last night. And he did it in his traditional style … planted in front of the net. “Big Walt” just doesn’t seem to get the respect he deserves in this town. It seems so many folks mention him first when discussing the trade deadline. Tkachuk has 18 goals and 17 assists this season for a total of 35 points. That’s good enough for a three-way tie as the team’s second-leader scorer (Patrik Berglund and David Perron also have 35 points), with only Brad Boyes’ 50 points coming in higher.

I’m not sure why fans in St. Louis wouldn’t want Tkachuk to stick around for another season or two — his veteran presence in the locker room has to help all the Baby Blues. And it’s not like he’s not putting up any numbers. Unless they can get a first-round pick for Tkachuk — which I don’t think the Blues can right now — I hope to see him back on the ice for the club next season.

****

ON THIS DATE

FEB 20, 1953 — Anheuser-Busch buys all but seven shares of St. Louis Cardinals stock from recently imprisoned owner Fred Saigh and installs August A. Busch Jr. as club president. (Source: “This Day in Baseball”)

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Where do you project the Missouri basketball team to finish in the Big 12 standings this year, and will it be enough for them to make the NCAA tournament?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Big 12 is tough to read. With Kansas rebuilding, there’s a lot of parity. Oklahoma and Texas figure to be the class of the conference, with Baylor as a sleeper. Mizzou is in a big group of teams hoping to emerge to claim fourth place, or perhaps No. 3. It really depends on MU’s consistency, and frankly, I haven’t seen much steadiness from a Mike Anderson team. Mizzou will do better but still finish sixth and fall off the bubble as a contender for the NCAA Tournament.

VAHE GREGORIAN
MU is much-improved and should be able to take advantage of a conference in flux to be able to move up from 10th a year ago to the upper-half this season. After going 13-2 in non-conference play, making the NCAA Tournament could come down to the difference between, say, going 9-7 and 10-6 in the Big 12. To do that, MU will need a fast start since it faces a rugged final stretch that includes Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and two games with Kansas among their final 10. Gut feeling is MU goes 9-7 to fall just outside an NCAA bid.

TOM TIMMERMANN
There are enough good teams in the Big 12 that I don’t see Mizzou beating. They look to me like the seventh best team in the Big 12, the top team in the second division, but that should be good enough in the Big 12 to get an NCAA berth. Oh the beauties of playing in a power conference.

STU DURANDO
The Tigers have good nonconference wins over USC and California, and the Big 12 schedule could work in their favor. They don’t have to play at Oklahoma or Baylor but can bolster their case by beating both at home. However, the Big 12 doesn’t rate highly in the conference RPI, and I see Mizzou being one of several teams trying to grab a spot in the closing weeks.

JEFF GORDON
Joe Lunardi, the ESPN bracketologist, punches the NCAA Tournament numbers every week. Right now he has the Tigers as the sixth-best Big 12 team. Right now he has them getting into the NCAA Tournament as a No. 10 seed. But will this conference get six bids with the Big East hogging so many spots? I wonder. Mizzou may have to be one of the five best conference teams to make it. And right now, the Tigers aren’t quite there yet.

****

MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

AIN’T THAT A KICK IN THE HEAD: The 2008 NFL All-Pro team was announced today. Surprisingly, no St. Louis Rams were included on the first team. OK, I’m being facetious. Afterall, how many All-Pros would one expect from a 2-14 team? Well, actually there was one that I thought would make it, and that was punter Donnie Jones, who averaged an NFL-best 50 yards per punt this season. Jones became only the second punter in NFL history to average at least 50 yards per punt. Jones, was however, named to the “second team” in All-Pro voting, with Oakland’s Shane Lechler being the first-teamer. Last month Jones also was snubbed by not making the Pro-Bowl team. No matter how you slice it, I say Jones got jobbed.

MACLIN GOING PRO: It’s a sad day for Mizzou fans but a good day for Jeremy Maclin as the super-talented WR has announced he’s headed to the NFL draft after only two seasons of college football. Maclin was a sensational college talent and many project him to be a first-round selection in April’s draft. An instant ticket to stardom? Not necessarily. In fact, the NFL is littered with busts chosen at WR in the first round.

To make my case I decided to survey five consecutive NFL drafts. Generally, they say a WR doesn’t hit his full stride in the NFL until he’s playing in his third season so I withheld judgment on those who haven’t reached that criteria and excluded the 2007 and 2008 drafts. So I went back to 2002 through 2006 … meaning every WR listed here has been in the NFL at least three years. Due to injuries, poor play, etc., they may not have actually “played” three full years, but hey, if you draft a guy in the first round you expect him to play.

So, below you’ll see the year of the draft followed by the number of years the player has been in the NFL. Under that you’ll see where the player was selected in the first round/his number of career receptions/career receiving yards/TDs. I’ll let you do the math on how much that averages out to each season of their careers if you desire to do so, but these numbers will pretty much speak for themselves. Here we go:

2002 Draft (7 years in league)

No. 13 — Donte Stallworth, 296 receptions, 4,383 yards, 32 TDs
No. 19 — Ashley Lelie, 217, 3,749, 15
No. 20 — Javon Walker, 267, 4,011, 31

2003 Draft (6 years in league)

No. 2 — Charles Rogers, 36 receptions, 440 yards, 4 TDs
No. 3 — Andre Johnson, 486, 6,379, 33
No. 17 — Bryant Johnson, 255, 3,221, 12

2004 Draft (5 years in league)

No. 3 — Larry Fitzgerald, 426 receptions, 5,975 yards, 46 TDs
No. 7 — Roy Williams, 281, 4,082, 30
No. 9 — Reggie Williams, 189, 2,322, 18
No. 13 — Lee Evans, 296, 4,744, 32
No. 15 — Michael Clayton, 205, 2,706, 9
No. 29 — Michael Jenkins, 185, 2,372, 17
No. 31 — Rashaun Woods, 7, 160, 1

2005 Draft (4 years in league)

No. 3 — Braylon Edwards, 228 receptions, 3,558 yards, 28 TDs
No. 7 — Troy Williamson, 84, 1,097, 4
No. 10 — Mike Williams, 44, 539, 2
No. 22 — Mark Clayton, 200, 2,636, 10
No. 27 — Roddy White, 230, 3,536, 16

2006 Draft (3 years in league)

No. 25 — Santonio Holmes, 156 receptions, 2,587 yards, 15 TDs

Of course all of us can look at different players and have differing opinions on their values, but the numbers don’t lie. What I see here is that out of 19 first-round WR draft picks in these five drafts, there are just two justifiable stars — Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. I’d put a second tier of WRs behind them that would include Roy Williams, Lee Evans and maybe Braylon Edwards. Roddy White had a breakout year this season (83, 1,202, 6), but his body of work over four seasons is unimpressive. Oh, and how about Charles Rogers at No. 2 in 2003 and Mike Williams at No. 10 in 2005? OUCH! And both chosen by Detroit. Double-OUCH!

Bottom line, there’s a lot more misses than hits when it comes to drafting WRs in the first round of the NFL draft. Which side of the line do you think Maclin will fall on?

****

SOMETHING TO PONDER

GEEZ, NOT THIS AGAIN: Apparently Brett Favre has decided he’s going to take a month or so before deciding whether or not he’s going to return for another season. He needs “some time away from football” to think about things. Isn’t that great news? For the next month we’ll be constantly bombarded on ESPN and elsewhere with Brett sightings and reports … will he or won’t he? The guy has set so many records, won a Super Bowl, been the MVP, established an incredible legacy … why can’t we just get him to climb into his Wranglers and ride off into the sunset? I think the whole on-again, off-again saga every offseason the past few years does little more than tarnish his legacy in many people’s eyes. It certainly does in mine. So I’m just gonna say it: It’s time to go, Brett.

****

TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE DAY

Q: What shortstop holds the major league records for games played, assists and double plays?

A: Ozzie Smith.

TODAY’S TOP STORIES

KNOWING A BARGAIN WHEN YOU SEE ONE: “Good stuff cheap” read’s the Boston Globe’s online headline this morning. This after the announcement that the Red Sox have reached a preliminary agreement with future Hall of Fame starter/closer John Smoltz on a one-year, $5 million deal. According to the report, Smoltz, 41, will finalize the deal later today and can earn another $5 million in performance incentives.

Oh, and the Red Sox also picked up former first-round pick Rocco Baldelli in a one-year, performance-laden deal.

You think of the big, bad Red Sox as a free-wheeling, free-spending organization, but after missing out in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes the Bosox have acted with financial prudence, taking shots on guys who have exceeded at the highest level, and doing so at discount prices that only escalate based on actual performance.

You may recall the Red Sox already have signed former Dodgers ace Brad Penny to a one-year, $5 million deal. That escalates to the neighborhood of $8 million with performance incentives.

Both Smoltz and Penny had some injury issues last season, but both also have shown the ability to perform at an extemely high level when healthy, Smoltz in a Cooperstown-sort-of-way. The Sox have invested $10 million guaranteed that the two can help them push toward another World Series. And if they don’t perform, Boston can walk away after one year and not be bogged down by long-term contracts.

Both examples, to me, seem exactly the kind of deal the Cardinals have indicated they are looking for. Smoltz, in particular, meets the characteristics of the kind of player described by manager Tony La Russa just last week that he’d like to have — someone with starting and closing experience. Alas, the Cardinals remain on the sidelines.

Perhaps the Cards are doing the right thing by remaining patient as the market for pitchers sets itself. Then again, you don’t want patience to turn into paralysis.

IN OTHER BASEBALL NEWS: The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is reporting today that the Brewers have signed all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman to a one-year, $6 million deal. Hoffman can earn an addition $1.5 million in incentives, based on games finished, according to the report. So scratch Hoffman off the list. You can read what the Journal-Sentinel and Milwaukee fans have to say at the blog site highlighted above.

****

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Who will win tonight’s BCS Championship game between Florida and Oklahoma and what will be the final score?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Florida “holds” Oklahoma four touchdowns below what it’s been scoring in the second half of the season but can’t quite stop the Sooners.
Oklahoma 35, Florida 28

STU DURANDO
The SEC doesn’t lose in the championship game. I’m sick of the SEC but until it loses I can’t pick against any of its teams. However, this game is completely anti-climactic to me. The BCS folks have made this an afterthought by playing on a Thursday night, a week after New Year’s Day. I feel more like I’m about to watch a great season opener for 2009.
Florida 37, Oklahoma 30

JOE STRAUSS
If money grew on trees, this is what handicappers would refer to as “low-hanging money.” As the bowl season has screamed: The SEC is big league, the Big 12 is 4-A. Teams that don’t play defense don’t hang against SEC big boys. Ask Texas Tech. Oklahoma has an underrated defense — within the Big 12. A late score makes this one deceptively close.
Florida 38, Oklahoma 32. (Give the points.)

TOM TIMMERMANN
I saw a lot more of Oklahoma this year than I did Florida, which has probably colored my thinking that the Sooners are better. I’m counting on Oklahoma’s defense to make the plays needed for the win.
Oklahoma 28, Florida 27

CAMERON HOLLWAY
Tonight’s game is no more a “championship” than Utah-Alabama, USC-Penn State or Texas-Ohio State. Utah is the national champion, and USC, Texas and tonight’s winner belong in the conversation. I picked Oklahoma to be crowned in the preseason, so I’ll have to stick with that pick. The Sooners offensive line might be the best in NCAA history, which gives Sam Bradford the time to pick any defense apart.
Oklahoma 34, Florida 31.

REID LAYMANCE
The Sooners’ only loss this season came against Texas, a team with a gritty QB (Colt McCoy) and a good kick returner (Jordan Shipley). Florida has that and maybe a bit more in Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin.
Florida 35, Oklahoma 33

PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: Everyone’s got a 50-50 chance at getting the above question right. How hard is that? The really challenge was picking the national champion before the season began. Take a look at who our college football writers, columnists and college editor said would win it all in our preseason preview.

****

QUESTION TO THE READERS

MACLIN A MIZZOU GREAT? On the eve of Jeremy Maclin announcing his decision between the NFL and staying in school, I got to wondering about where he would rank with all-time Mizzou football greats. I didn’t grow up here so I don’t have a great historical perspective as far as seeing guys play. I know what my eyes tell me about Maclin: He’s an incredibly talented athlete who glides so smoothly while juking opponents it often seems he’s doing it effortlessly. If he goes pro now, does he hurt his legacy among Mizzou greats, or perhaps not even be considered one? Or has he already put himself in the upper-tier in the schools annals? Educate me on this one.

****

STAT OF THE DAY

7,354.2 — Career innings pitched by Cy Young, the most in Major League history. That averages out to about 334 innings pitched per season in his 22-year career. Pretty amazing, huh?