THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Show-Me state got its second new NFL general manager this week when Scott Pioli, longtime vice president of player personnel for the New England Patriots, was hired by the Kansas City Chiefs. This comes on the heels of Billy Devaney being elevated recently to the same post with the St. Louis Rams. Both GMs inherit teams that went 2-14 last year and neither has his head coach locked in for next season. Which of the two do you think will be first to lead their team back to the playoffs?

JIM THOMAS
There’s a lot of hype surrounding Pioli, but a once-in-a-generation type of quarterback like Tom Brady makes a lot of people look like genuises. Even with Denver hiring a new coach and LaDainian Tomlinson showing signs of wearing down in San Diego, the AFC West remains a tougher division than the NFC West. So we’ll go with Devaney and the Rams, barely.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Chiefs have an edge with Pioli, who is the No. 1 “catch” of the offseason. There is less work and rebuilding to do in Kansas City, and fewer questions about ownership stability.

BILL COATS
Devaney has a slight edge here. The Rams’ roster, while badly in need of an overhaul, actually is a bit stronger than the Chiefs’ roster. Plus, the NFC West is arguably the weakest division in the NFL — not that the AFC West is filled with juggernauts. So if the right buttons are pushed, the Rams could make a move up pretty quickly.

KATHLEEN NELSON
I’ll give the edge to the Chiefs because the Hunt family seems to have a better football sense than Chip and Lucia. Scott Pioli also comes from a recent winning tradition with the Patriots, the closest thing the NFL has had to a dynasty in the last decade.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

STILL GLAD TO BE A CUBBIE? When Aaron Miles signed with the Chicago Cubs on Dec. 31, most folks thought he would be penciled into the starting second base job with Mark DeRosa leaving Chicago. Well not so fast. According to the Chicago Tribune, Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said this week that Miles will compete with Mike Fontenot for the job during spring training.

Fontenot hit .360 after the All-Star break last year and showed he can play at a high level. “I think when we all got done, and all the things that got batted around in the last couple of months, we forget how good a player he was last year,” Hendry told the Tribune.

Miles, 32, averaged 134 games played and batted .263, .290 and .317 over the last three years with the Cardinals. But he sure sounded like he thought his future was bright when leaving town. Who can forget the following comments he made to Chicago beat writers: “I’m excited to be a Cubbie. Being a Cardinal was great, and that part is over now. Now I’m ready to be a Cubbie and play the game the right way.”

Well, it looks like the right way might be another stint as a utility player … but this time for the Lovable Losers, not the 10-time world champs. I’m just sayin’.

To be fair, Miles didn’t totally slam the Cardinals on his way out of town. In fact, he told P-D writer Derrick Goold the following: “It was still the toughest decision I’ve had to make because St. Louis was the greatest experience I’ve ever had in baseball. Being with the Cardinals made my career happen. I started in Colorado, but I made a name for myself in St. Louis.”

If you missed it the first time around, you can check Goold’s interview with Miles in the Birdland blog.

THE END OF AN ERROR? Say it ain’t so. Chemistry problems in the Dallas Cowboys locker room? Nah, can’t be. Surely the Cowboys had to be convinced they could control Terrell Owens when they signed him … after he had already worn out his welcome in Philadelphia and San Francisco. What convinced them otherwise? Perhaps it was T.O. calling out golden boy quarterback Tony Romo late this season. But that’s just history repeating itself, as we all know T.O. trashed his QBs in Philly and San Fran — Donovan McNabb and Jeff Garcia, respectively.

But Owens may not be the only problem, reports ESPN’s Ed Werder. He says improving locker room chemistry is the highest priority for the Cowboys this offseason. “I think we all know that chemistry is the problem with this team more than the schemes or anything else,” a Cowboys source told Werder. “Are we going to continue to allow talent to outweigh everything else in the decisions we make with players and putting the roster together? … There’s more to it than talent. It has to be more about the team. … “The big one [Owens] didn’t get discussed yet, but I’m sure it will and real hard.”

This one is about as surprising to me as “Dog bites man.”

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

THE DEVILS MADE HIM DO IT: So the Brendan Shanahan “sweepstakes” are over as the three-time Stanley Cup champion has finalized a contract to play out this season with the New Jersey Devils, the team that selected him No. 2 overall in the 1987 draft. This may prick at the hearts of some Blues fans — the Blues had expressed interest in Shanahan returning to St. Louis — but I think the Blues benefitted by Shanahan’s desire to finish out his career on the East coast.

There’s no denying the impact of Shanahan’s career. He has tallied 650 goals and 1,340 points in 1,490 NHL games. He ranks 11th on the career goal list and 24th in points. Again, unmistakably a star.

Now for the flip side: First, Shanahan turns 40 next week. He’s clearly nearing the end of the road. This is not the same guy who the Blues signed in 1991 in a trade that sent defenseman Scott Stevens to the Devils (where Stevens helped lead New Jersey to three Cup titles.) No, this Shanahan is coming off a 23-goal, 46-point season with the Rangers in 2007 — the lowest total since his rookie season. Shanahan’s last truly great year came in 2005 with the Red Wings, when he put up 40 goals and 81 points. That’s three years ago, or 21 in dog years (and since Shanahan has played 21 seasons, I think the comparison works.)

For my ticket money, give me the Baby Blues and the future on the ice rather than Shanahan and the past. Sorry, Shanny, but I just would hate to see you taking ice time away from the guys that are going to lead this team for years to come.

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STAT OF THE DAY

102 — Points Shanahan put up for the Blues in 1993. 52 goals and 50 assists. Wow!

THE WATERCOOLER
(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: With general manager Jim Hendry saying Monday that the Cubs will raise payroll again next season, what chances do the Cardinals have to stay competitive in the NL Central given their projected budget?

JOE STRAUSS
Acquiring a legitimate closer and depth for the rotation should give the Cardinals an expectation of 90 wins. That should compete next season within a division including a financially taxed Houston Astros, a Sheets-less and Sabathia-less Milwaukee Brewers and a still rebuilding Cincinnati Reds team. The Cardinals still appear dependent on the Cubs taking a step back. Budget is secondary to personnel decisions. Kyle Lohse last year proved a much better acquisition than, say, Carlos Silva.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals still will be competitive — if they add starting pitching help themselves. Jake Peavy doesn’t help that Cubs’ offense any and, as you saw, any team with decent right-handed pitching (Los Angeles Dodgers, most recently) can carve up the Cubs’ right-handed hitters.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs having a budget that could be $40 million more than the Cardinals gives them more ability to take risks and a larger margin of error, especially with their pitching. They can gamble on injury risks like Rich Harden and Jake Peavy at such high dollars because the gap in payroll gives them that option. The Cardinals don’t have that luxury and have to hinge their ability to contend on Chris Carpenter being healthy, filling in holes with cost-effective options (i.e., Trever Miller) and having more depth in place. The difference in payrolls comes down to this: Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs have the ability to paper-over their big-money import’s poor performance with another big-money outfielder. The Cardinals have to get big bangs for their bucks to contend. The Cubs can have a few busts from their bucks and still win the division.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The spending isn’t the only issue, but clearly the Cubs have a tactical advantage over the Cardinals because of their aggressive expansion of payroll. That said, money isn’t everything. The Cubs have wasted plenty of it by signing the likes of Kosuke Fukudome. But the Cubs have gained the upper hand in this rivalry by putting so much emphasis on starting pitching. The rotation carries the North Siders and the edge will be even more pronounced if Jake Peavy lands at Wrigley. The Cardinals haven’t kept up in the arms race.

JEFF GORDON
This is an interesting scenario. The Cubs will have new ownership soon. So the current regime wants to win in 2009. Why worry about the future? The next owner may want his own guys. The Cardinals are taking a longer view. Bill DeWitt is stressing player development and John Mozeliak is managing his assets for the long haul. These two aren’t going anywhere. But that doesn’t mean the Cards can’t compete in ’09. Thanks to the influx of Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, etc, Mozeliak will be able to assemble a playoff contender for $100 million or less. And thanks to the wild-card rule, the Cards don’t have to fret the Cubs winning 110 games with the Best Team Money Can Buy.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

HAVE BATS, WILL TRADE: Joe Strauss reported in this morning’s paper that the Cardinals are poised to deal from a surplus of left-handed hitters created by Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan and top prospect Colby Rasmus. Is there any question which one of those guys Cardinal fans would most like to see go? But you have to know if all the fans see it, other teams see it, also. If John Mozeliak can pull off a trade involving a quality pitcher for Chris Duncan, I say the Cardinals just go ahead and make him GM for life. No, if the team deals, I think it has to involve one of the other outfielders if you want quality in return. More on this situation in our winter meetings blog.

CRY ME A RIVER: Former Cubbie Ron Santo, who was bypassed for election to the Hall of Fame yesterday, says the voting process needs to be changed. “It’s a travesty,” Santo told the Chicago Sun-Times. “When I saw nobody got in again, I go, ‘Whoa, this is wrong.’ They can’t keep going the way they’re going. They’ve got to put a [different] committee out there.”

That’s it, Mr. Santo. Let’s get a different committee. Obviously all 64 living members of the Hall of Fame who make up the Veterans Committee do not understand what it takes to make the Hall. Santo says he’s not just speaking up for himself but for other players also. However, one has to wonder if Santo would be saying anything at all if he were already in the exclusive club. Santo was a nine-time All-Star, won five Gold Gloves and finished his career with 342 home runs and a .277 lifetime batting average. Is that enough to get you in the Hall of Fame? The Veterans Committee says no. End of story.

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A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

IT’S ALL GOOD: Yesterday in this forum I lamented the fact that I wasn’t going to get to see T.J. Oshie play alongside the other Baby Blues at the Scotty last night. While I didn’t get to see Oshie, I did see history in the making. Three things you’ll never again see happen in the same night at a Blues game: 1) The Blues score 6 goals; 2) B.J. Crombeen corrals a hat trick; and, 3) Alex Steen is on the ice and actually does something (goal and assist.) I know, I know, why do I have to say something negative the day after the Blues finally climb above .500? Perhaps it’s because I expected Steen to have a Brad Boyes-like transformation once he arrived in St. Louis and, up until last night, he seemed to be a total non-factor since coming over in the Lee Stempniak trade. But let me put a positive spin on it and say: Here’s hoping last night was the beginning of a good run for Steen.

(By the way, Blues fans, Jeremy Rutherford is feeling a bit threatened by the deluge of traffic the new Round Two blog is getting. So in the holiday spirit, I implore you to visit his Morning Skate blog to get him more “hits” than Round Two.)

STICKING IT TO THE LITTLE GUY: The NFL announced today that it is cutting more than 10 percent of its headquarters staff in response to the downturn in the nation’s economy. That’s about 150 jobs lost. I’m thinking if you took the salaries of guys like Pacman Jones and Plaxico Burress and gave it to the league, not only could you save those 150 jobs, but you could probably go on a hiring binge. Perhaps I’m just edgy because of all the jobs being lost at A-B and around the country in general, but the huge salaries paid to some guys who don’t care about all of “us” who actually pay their salaries just peeves me. I thought you were supposed to become more conservative as you got older, and here I am talking like Karl Marx. But I’m just sayin’ …

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STAT OF THE DAY

3.18 – Assuming the Cubs land Jake Peavy, that would be the combined 2008 ERA of the team’s rotation. That’s a lower team ERA than any individual ERA on the Cardinals’ staff not named Carpenter … who threw only 15.1 innings last season. By pursuing Peavy, the Cubs are clearly climbing the ladder to the top of the tree, bypassing all the low-hanging fruit.