THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the Phillies head to their second consecutive World Series it raises the question, “What does Philadelphia have that the Cardinals do not?”

DERRICK GOOLD
Where to begin? How about where the difference is the greatest? The lineup. The Phillies have one of the deepest, one of the most power-packed and actually one of the most underrated lineups in baseball. Chase Utley may be the most complete lefthanded-hitter in the National League. Ryan Howard, Mr. September to the locals, is a power threat that is emerging as a Mr. October. Jimmy Rollins is a former MVP (Matt Holliday was robbed!) and a switch-hitting speed threat. And if the number of elite hitters doesn’t reveal the gulch between the depth of the Phillies’ lineup and the Cardinals’ lineup, consider Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth are complementary hitters in that lineup — and would be linchpins of the Cardinals.

Too much of the Cardinals lineup is isolated around one bat swinging well. His name: Albert Pujols. The Phillies have many players who can spark a rally, continue a rally or invent a rally on their own. They don’t need three hits to score one run. They often need one hit to score three runs. It’s easy to take potshots at the studio they call a ballpark and acknowledge that it adds to the Phillies’ power threat. But here’s the thing: Take away the power, and the Phillies still have the balance and depth to bombard teams anywhere else, too. The Cardinals just don’t have that many dimensions to their offense.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Phillies had a much deeper and stronger lineup. If you go by combined onbase + slugging percentage (OPS), the Phillies have the edge over the Cardinals at six of the eight positions. (We’re not counting the pitchers’ batting performances in this statistical breakdown). The only spots where the Cardinals had the better OPS than the Phillies this season were first base and shortstop. The Phillies ranked in the top 5 in the NL in OPS at six positions, and were No. 1 in the league at second base and right field. Their outfielders, overall, were No. 1. They were No. 2 in OPS at center field and fourth in OPS in left field. The Cardinals lagged terribly in the position-by-position OPS rankings at third base (15th), center field (13th) and right field (12th) and were mediocre in left field (8th) and second base (8th). St. Louis outfielders overall were 12th among 16 NL outfields with a .743 OPS — or 108 points less than the OPS generated by the Phillies’ outfield.

The Phillies also led the NL in slugging percentage and had a lot more danger in their lineup from top to bottom, finishing with nearly 100 more extra-base hits than the Cardinals.

Finally, there was a huge disparity between the teams in their batting performance against LH pitching. The Phillies were the league’s second-best team in OPS vs. LH (.787) and the Cardinals finished last in OPS vs. LH (.674).

RICK HUMMEL
The one thing the Phillies have that the Cardinals don’t have is damage up and down their lineup, from No. 1, where Jimmy Rollins hit 21 homers, to No. 8, where Carlos Ruiz has been a postseason star. Also, they seem to be better hitters with men in scoring position.

JEFF GORDON
Run production! That lineup wears out pitchers. There is danger everywhere. How many at bats would Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus, et al, have earned in that group? Fans clamor for a one big hitter to protect Albert, but the challenge is to assemble a dangerous attack, one through eight. The Cards can move in that direction, even without Holliday, by weeding all their .230 hitters off the roster.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Power, speed, offensive depth, better left-right balance in the order and better defense. The Cardinals pitching is a little better on the whole but not by all that much.

The Phillies hit 40 percent more home runs (224 to 160) than the Cardinals, plus they stole 59 percent more bases (119 to 75), walked 12 percent more often (589 to 528) and they had a higher OPS (.781 to .747). In fact, Philly ranked 1st in the NL in OPS and HR while finishing 2nd in steals. They had four 30 home run guys this year (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibanez) compared to one for the Cards (Pujols), which pretty much paints the picture for you.

In fact, 7 of their 8 “everyday players” reached double digits in home runs (Rollins had 21 as the leadoff man) and the only guy who missed out, catcher Carlos Ruiz, hit 9 homers despite missing 55 games.

The Cardinals had a strong team, one whose pitching carried them over the course of the long 162 game season, but the Phillies have a dynamic, explosive team and one that is better suited for a playoff run.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: NL Central division rival Chicago arrives today for a three-game series, followed by a three-game set against cross-state rival Kansas City. In addition to those two important series, the Cards are anticipating the return Wednesday of Chris Carpenter and Rick Ankiel, which in turn will force some roster moves. It’s shaping up to be an important week. All that said, what do you think will be the most important development for the Cardinals in this homestand?

JOE STRAUSS
As big a deal as Carp’s start is Wednesday, Ankiel’s return on the same day potentially helps the team every day. The offense has fallen into a torpor ever since Ankiel’s loss was compounded by Ryan Ludwick’s hamstring strain. The Cardinals have very few ways to win now short of a solid start. Returning Ankiel to the lineup offers Pujols greater protection, allows TLR to drop Yadier Molina to a more comfortable spot in the order, and at least gives another reason to believe the Cards can score more than once in an inning. Carpenter makes the team better the day and the day after he pitches. During one of his offensive binges, Ankiel can be a daily force. In eight years of covering this club, I can’t recall a more difficult time for a Cardinals lineup than the last week.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s always about Carpenter. It’s not only what he brings with his physical ability, but the emotional lift he would give to a team that is kind of confused right now.

DERRICK GOOLD
The most important long-term development for the Cardinals during this homestand is … and how many times have we written this in the past three seasons? … the healthy return and presence of Chris Carpenter. Film at 11. The damning short-term development for the Cardinals in this homestand is how deep a crippled offense leaves them in the standings. Wins could be scarce against the Cubs and the Royals are improved. The Cardinals entered this homestand in first place in the NL Central. They could leave it with Rick Ankiel in the lineup, Chris Carpenter in the rotation, and a serious drop in the standings.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, the Cards need to win some games and stabilize. Period. How they do that is not important. Just having Carpenter and Ankiel back will give the boost, but a LOT of players are struggling all at once. By winning a few of these games, the Cards could release some of their building frustration and build toward a turnaround. This team can’t get everybody out of their funk at once, but a couple of victories against quality opponents would start the process.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t know if it will be a positive development or not, but what I’m most curious about seeing this week is how Tony La Russa will dish out the playing time at SS and 3B. Joe Strauss’ story (in Tuesday’s Post-Dispatch) about Khalil Greene moving into a reserve role for the time being makes you wonder how it’s all going to play out. Does Tyler Greene emerge as a legit option as the regular shortstop? What about Brendan Ryan? Do we see him more at short, at third or will he be on the pine? Are Brian Barden (.083 in May) and Joe Thurston (.195 in May) going to lose at-bats or will they continue to play regularly?

How things develop at those two positions could determine a lot here in the near future because the other offensive issues will fix themselves, to a degree, once Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick return to the lineup. If you’re not getting much out of 3B and SS, however, you’re looking at a lineup that won’t have a threat in the bottom third. In that scenario you would need Yadier Molina to swing the bat more like he did in April (.333/.402/.500) than what he’s doing in May (.222/.387/.329) — and that’s not a fair expectation. Yadi’s gotten better as a hitter but if you’re counting on consistent run production from him in the middle third of the order things are going to continue to be tough on offense.

A little something on offense from SS and 3B would certainly go a long way.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals are off to a 9-5 start. While the season is still very young, is there any individual’s play, good or bad, that has caught your attention thus far? And what do you expect from this player in coming months?

JOE STRAUSS
The third base platoon of Joe Thurston and Brian Barden has exceeded what even the most wildly optimistic fans and front office members could have envisioned. Their production likely will outstrip what Troy Glaus gave the team last April. The question is how much longer will manager Tony La Russa be able to find them favorable matchups and to what extent either player will be exposed by heavy playing time.

DERRICK GOOLD
We had a good idea going into spring training that Brian Barden was an above average glove with the ability to play three positions in the infield, and play them well. There just wasn’t any indication that was enough to even make the major-league bench. As Joe Mather, Joe Thurston and later David Freese got the playing time at third and Skip Schumaker monopolized second, Barden was in the background of both competitions. Was he around for depth? Or, did he have a shot? Halfway through March we were wondering if a player with so few at-bats had stuck around that long in major-league camp before.

But stuck around he did. Stuck around long enough to outlast others, win a utility job — and now is capitalizing on the opportunity to be a regular starter at third base. The reason: Well, opportunity, sure, but also health. Turns out Barden was really hampered by a groin injury the past couple seasons that diagnosed as something he should play through. He had it repaired this offseason and has his legs back. Plus, he feels he can turn on pitches better, with more whip and therefore more power. The glove plays. That much is certain and that is enough to keep him in the majors. In the month ahead, the bat will dictate how much he plays.

RICK HUMMEL
Chris Duncan probably has been the biggest surprise to most people although if they had had a chance to watch him in spring training, they would have seen that his swing was back after he was restricted by injuries the last two years. And he’s dropped only one fly ball.

Duncan should knock in 85 runs and hit .270 or above.

JEFF GORDON
The most interesting player is Joe Thurston. He is a middle infielder by trade, yet he is logging big time at third base. He gets burned from time to time on the hot corner, yet his defensive hustle aggression and hustle produce outs — as Carlos Beltran learned first hand. He adds speed when he gets on base. Given his minor league history, you would expect him to keep getting on base, too. He looks like a classic Tony La Russa guy. Hungry utility players can add a lot to the team chemistry, as we saw with Aaron Miles the last few seasons.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the Cardinals enter the final three weeks of spring training, the question still remains: Who’s on second? Who do you see manning second base on Opening Day?

JOE STRAUSS
I’ll defer to my more insightful colleagues. So far Schumaker has received a heavy majority of the time at second base. I haven’t heard anyone declare the transfer a success. But if you believe the experiment a work-in-progress or something less, it’s impossible at this point to say who else would take over the position due to spotty chances for others.

If Schu’ doesn’t hold the position, Brendan Ryan has several advocates within the organization. He also has major-league experience. I could see a Ryan-Thurston or Ryan-Schu mix. But it’s a complete jump ball right now.

DERRICK GOOLD
The wiseacre answer is Brendan Ryan, because the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to start a lefty on Opening Day and Ryan is the righthanded-hitting option at the position. But that’s not what you mean, is it? With Skip Schumaker in a groundball rut — though he turned a double play this afternoon — the club is quietly weighing its other options at second. Joe Thurston has done well with little opportunity this spring, and Ryan has the edge in major-league experience. With no interest manifesting in free agents like Mark Grudzielanek and the trade market tight right now, the Cardinals must find an in-house solution. Unable to choose one of the candidates, they will likely choose all of the candidates. Introducing second baseman by committee. Part platoon, part extended audition, part on-the-job training (see: Schumaker), second seems like a hot-potato position. All that means is the wiseacre answer may just be the wise answer: Brendan Ryan.

RICK HUMMEL
On Opening Day, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be throwing a lefthander in Paul Maholm, so I’ll say Brendan Ryan, a righthanded batter, rather than Skip Schumaker or Joe Thurston. But Ryan will not be the regular.

JEFF GORDON
I’ll vote for Skip Schumaker, despite his horrific week. Tony La Russa is a very stubborn man and he REALLY wants this guy in the leadoff spot. He knows that he can double-switch him out of the position every game and sit him against lefties. So he can ease him into the role and make it a lot easier. Brendan Ryan, batting ninth, is an OK option. And Thurston makes the team for sure — and he will get some at bats.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cardinals open the season with four games against Pittsburgh and the Pirates figure to throw three lefties at the Cards, including one on Opening Day. It seems to me that neither Skip Schumaker nor Joe Thurston will be the choice on April 6. Therefore, I’m going with Brendan Ryan as the Opening Day second baseman against lefty Paul Maholm.

That said, I think Thurston is going to emerge as the guy who mans second against right handers. I don’t know how long that’ll last but the vibe I’m getting from Jupiter about Skip at second is not a good one, though Derrick and Joe would certainly have a better read on that than me.

I’d be surprised if the Cards had a “regular” second baseman for at least the first half this season. “Platoon” comes to mind and I’m not talking about Charlie Sheen or Michael J. Fox.

TOM ACKERMAN (Sports anchor on “Total Information A.M.” on KMOX)
I’m going to stick with my selection from an earlier Round Two: Joe Thurston. He looks comfortable at the position and he’s paid his dues. If he can turn a double play and get on base, sign him up.

THE WATERCOOLER

FEARLESS FORECAST: It seems something unexpected happens personnel-wise almost every spring before the Cardinals break camp in Jupiter. If you were to make one prediction of something that may surprise fans by the time this year’s team heads north, what would it be?

RICK HUMMEL
Chris Duncan, healed from disk surgery in his neck, will be at least a platoon player in left field and will start against most righthanded pitching. Duncan is the club’s best No. 2 hitter ahead of Albert Pujols because he knows the strike zone better than Ankiel or Ludwick and will draw a walk, if necessary, to have a man on in front of Pujols. Duncan then would be replaced for defense in the late innings by Schumaker or whomever.

DERRICK GOOLD
The five starters the Cardinals take north to open the season will not be the five starters that they currently have penciled into the rotation. But Chris Carpenter WILL BE one of those five, healthy and ready.

JOE STRAUSS
A third candidate will emerge as closer and there will be a surprise importation of another lefthanded reliever.

JEFF GORDON
Here is something that would surprise fans: The Cardinals will make a significant addition before the team heads north. Fans seem to believe the roster is frozen. It is not. If a team need becomes glaring during camp — due to further injuries or the failures of young players — John Mozeliak will have options. Remember, Mo professed happiness with his pitching last spring right up to the point when he signed Kyle Lohse.

BRYAN BURWELL
The biggest surprise of spring training will be the re-emergence of Chris Duncan as a productive offensive weapon. he’s healthy again for the first time in two years.

TOM ACKERMAN (Manager of Sports Operations at KMOX)
Career minor leaguer Joe Thurston lands the starting assignment at second base on Opening Day. Sure, there are more familiar names in the second base competition: Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumaker, maybe even Joe Mather. But unlike Adam Kennedy, Ryan is a righthanded hitter. And Schumaker and Mather would have to make an extraordinary adjustment to switch from OF to 2B in the big leagues. There are a couple of reasons why the Cardinals acquired Thurston — he hits lefthanded and fields his position well. And his offensive numbers last season at Pawtucket (AAA) were more than adequate for 507 at-bats: .316, 11 HR, 64 RBI. He posted a .367 OBP, scored 83 runs and swiped 19 bases. Not bad. Thurston will turn 30 this season; he’s paid his dues. If he can turn a consistent double play with Khalil Greene and get on base this spring, he’ll get the nod.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO: I think folks were mostly fed up with Scott Rolen by the time he left town. I don’t see anyone shedding tears for unemployed Jason Isringhausen right now, even though he had a great run in St. Louis. Oh, and who can forget Tino Martinez? I’m sure there are many examples of former Cardinals who folks here were glad to see go. Tell us your Top 10.

I bring this up due to a great piece the Boston Globe has on its Web site. The headline reads, “Don’t go away mad, just go away: Worst Sox breakups.” It takes a look at the top relationships that ended badly between players, fans and the front office. Check it out.

WIE’S WACKY RIDE: Michelle Wie long-irked members of the LPGA as she took one sponsor’s exemption after another to try to compete against the men on the PGA Tour. The results were predictable. But Wie finally went to Q-school and got her LPGA tour card and on Thursday Wie made her debut as a full-time member of the LPGA. Now, perhaps, we can find out exactly how good the 19-year-old Wie can become. She started well, shooting a 6-under 66 Thursday that left her just one stroke off the lead.

Hmmm, it makes one wonder how many tournaments Wie possibly could have won already at such a young age if she had started in the more traditional manner. Still, she’s likely laughing all the way to the bank with all the money she’s gotten in endorsements due to the path she chose.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

JORDAN SET FOR HOF: The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame will announce its 2009 election results in early April. Leading the 16 finalists for this year’s induction are Michael Jordan, John Stockton and David Robinson — all three presumably shoo-ins. But there is a sad note here … I can’t believe Jordan is already going into the Hall of Fame. Seems like just yesterday when I was watching him as rookie with the Bulls, back when he had a little hair, wore the short-shorts and actually wore a thick, gold chain around his neck.

I’m sure we all reach those moments in our life when a simple thing will pop up making you realize the years are passing all too quickly. What’s next, the beautiful Bionic Woman pimping geriatic prodcuts on TV commercials? Oh, wait …

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ON THIS DATE

FEB. 13, 1996 — The St. Louis Cardinals complete a long-rumored swap, acquiring closer Dennis Eckersley from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for minor league reliever Steve Montgomery. … The Cardinal also announce that they are laying nearly three acres of grass over the field at Busch Stadium, replacing the artificial turf that has been used for 26 years.
(SOURCE: Baseballreference.com)