THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: While so much of the free-agent focus for the Cardinals seems to be on Matt Holliday or a replacement for him in left field, what is another part of this team where help is needed and that fans may be overlooking?

JOE STRAUSS
There is an obvious need to replace what Joel Pineiro represented this year. The Cardinals were a pitching-dominant team for much of this season, so much so that their offensive deficiencies were masked until September’s fade. Should Holliday go elsewhere, the Cardinals may spend more resources on a starting pitcher since they concede there is no way to replace Holliday with a single offensive talent. The public clamor for Boston Red Sox free agent Jason Bay is likely to go unanswered. It’s increasingly likely the club will seek to fortify its bullpen with an established set-up reliever to front Ryan Franklin. Think a Russ Springer type, not a Billy Wagner type.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals must have an everyday third baseman, something they didn’t have until Mark DeRosa was reasonably healthy in late July. And, of course, there is no guarantee he will be back. Also, the Cardinals must put together a bench with more firepower, especially from the standpoint of adding a veteran hitter.

JEFF GORDON
This team needs a proven power arm for the right side of the bullpen. That person could graduate into the closing role if Ryan Franklin is unable to regain his ’09 regular season form. And this team could also use a proven left-handed starting pitcher to balance up the rotation. Also, this team needs a lefty bat for the bench — somebody with some pop. So there is lots to do here.

DAN O’NEILL
Without question, the Cardinals have to improve their bench. Signing Mark DeRosa would go a long way toward that goal in that he can play several positions and he hits with power. It could also be that the club has more help for the bench from its Memphis affiliate (Allen Craig?). But certainly, the Cardinals need a bench crew that includes a good defensive infielder and a couple of bats that make the opposing manager pay attention.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
One of the spots in the starting rotation will still have to be filled with a Major League starter. I can’t envision the team giving Joel Pineiro a long-term contract based on one strong season, so with he and John Smoltz filing for free agency the team currently has two rotation spots open. The wise move would be to fill one of them with a solid veteran — maybe bringing Smoltz back — while leaving the fifth spot for someone like Jaime Garcia to claim in spring training.

I don’t think anyone is really overlooking this part of the team but while Matt Holliday is the big name we’re all talking about, let’s not forget that this team was carried largely by the starting rotation in ’09 and they’ll have to make sure someone is there to replace what Pineiro gave them this past season.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: John Smoltz got off to a good start with the Cardinals Sunday in San Diego. How important is that given Kyle Lohse’s groin injury and what does Lohse’s injury do to the Cardinals plans to eventually move Smoltz to the bullpen?

RICK HUMMEL
Unless Smoltz encounters difficulty in his next couple of starts, he will be in the rotation until Lohse comes back, which won’t be before the second week in September. If Smoltz still is doing well, he doesn’t see the bullpen until October.

JEFF GORDON
Lohse hasn’t been right all season, so there was always a chance Smoltz could play a rotation role here — if he showed staying power. If the Cards got to the NLCS, they would likely need that fourth starter. So Smoltz’s ability to get through the Padres batting order a second time was notable. He may have to finish out the season as the No. 4 starter — unless John Mozeliak can add still another starter this week. And if I am Mozeliak, I am trying to do just that. When Lohse returns, perhaps HE could go to the bullpen given his tendency to tire in the middle innings because of his lingering forearm injury.

BRYAN BURWELL
Clearly this impressive five-inning stint combined with the loss of Lohse makes it obvious that the short term for Smoltz is as the fourth starter. Don’t expect any seven or eight inning stints, but he will be handed the ball.

GERRY FRALEY
Tony La Russa would consider this blasphemy, but the National League Central race is over. Everything the Cardinals do over the final 36 regular-season games should be with an eye toward the playoffs. Because of that, the Cardinals cannot let Kyle Lohse’s injury change their plans for John Smoltz. They will need only three starters in the post-season: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. Smoltz will be needed out of the bullpen, and the plan should not change.

Keep in mind one more thing: Smoltz threw well on Sunday against the worst offensive team in the National League. The Padres are last in runs and batting average. An American League lineup of the type that beat up Smoltz while with Boston it is not.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
It’s a nice bonus but with an 8-game lead over the Cubs and only 36 games remaining I think the team should stick with the plan to eventually work Smoltz into a late-inning role. It might be wise to extend his stay in the rotation a bit longer than previously planned but the ultimate goal should still be to send him to the pen because they’ll need what he brings to the table out there come playoff time.

A fourth starter isn’t necessary in the playoffs but having someone who can blow hitters away in the 7th and 8th innings most certainly is. The Cards can make it through the rest of the regular season without setup help, but the playoffs are another story.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have many pending free agents, not to mention a clock ticking on Albert Pujols’ current deal. Keeping in mind money will have to be set aside for Albert, how many of the pending free agents do you think this team can realistically re-sign? And how might you prioritize those signings?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals probably can sign as many of the free agents as they want, but they would have to move salary elsewhere, perhaps a Ryan Ludwick, who will be due another big raise as an arbitration-eligible player. The pecking order:
1. Matt Holliday
2. Joel Pineiro
3. Mark DeRosa
4. Trever Miller
5. Rick Ankiel
6. Jason LaRue
7. Todd Wellemeyer

No chance category: Troy Glaus and Khalil Greene

BERNIE MIKLASZ
If they go “all in” on Matt Holliday, that’ll be it. There won’t be enough money (realistically) to deal with Mark DeRosa or Joel Pineiro, unless the players are willing to stay here at a steep discount. I’m wondering if the Cardinals will regret the contract they gave Kyle Lohse after last season.

DERRICK GOOLD
How many they sign depends mostly on who they sign. The priority has to be re-signing Matt Holliday. The Cardinals gave up a lot to get him, and they did so with the intention of keeping him beyond this season as the long-term heavy to hit behind Albert Pujols. A successful pursuit of Holliday will not only limit who else the Cardinals can go out and sign — or go out and keep — but also how they then approach Pujols about an extension. Holliday will limit the budget for other signings and help set the internal market for Pujols’ next deal. Signing both Holliday and Mark DeRosa isn’t unreasonable, and it may be necessary for the Cardinals to bring back DeRosa as an option at third base and second base. After that, the Cardinals usually move quickly to sign their backup catcher (Jason LaRue has done nothing to change his status) and will need to find a lefty specialist (will Trever Miller return?). The rest, including Joel Pineiro, are on the backburner or not in the conversation either because of the price tag, need or 2009 performance.

JEFF GORDON
Having Julio Lugo for free next season helps the budget. Also, David Freese appears back on track to replace Troy Glaus at third base. That helps as well. I would try to extend Mark DeRosa ASAP for a moderate raise over his current deal. He is a classic Cardinal. Surely he wants to stay, right? If the Cards have DeRosa in hand, preferably before the end of the season, that allows the team to remain patient on the Matt Holliday front. The team will be assured of having a solid offense next year. If Holliday wants to stay, the Cards could give him a nice contract, turn the page on Ankiel and Pineiro and lean on younger starting pitching. If Holliday decides to explore the market and chase the top dollar, then the Cards could spend money on Ankiel, Pineiro and/or other pitching and hitting. This could go a lot of ways, but I would lock in DeRosa early to simplify the equation.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
They should be able to sign the two or three they really need in addition to leaving room for Albert’s contract down the road without too much difficulty. The three I’d recommend focusing on are Matt Holliday, Joel Pineiro and Mark DeRosa, in that order. Holliday is the presence you need behind Albert. Pineiro has become a reliable starter and they have no apparent in-house replacement for him. DeRosa is an incredibly valuable, versatile player with leadership ability and a solid bat. As long as their demands — in terms of dollars and years — aren’t totally out of whack the team should be able to afford them and leave room for Albert’s new deal here in a couple of years. Minus their current obligations on Adam Kennedy, Troy Glaus, Khalil Greene and Todd Wellemeyer, the Cardinals save $27 million and that should give them some wiggle room to work with.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Joel Pineiro will take the mound vs. the Mets tomorrow night sporting a 2.84 ERA on the season. Pineiro has far exceeded expectations this season with a renewed emphasis on the sinker. As he will hit free agency at the end of this season, and given the many other Cardinals players also reaching free agency, what do you think the chances are that the team will be able to lock up Pineiro to a new contract?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals gave Kyle Lohse $41 million over four years last September. Based on numbers other than win percentage, Pineiro is enjoying a better season. It’s hard to imagine Pineiro taking a significant lower Annual Average Value than Lohse, who did agree to backload his deal. A baseline of 3 years/$27 million may be discussed. Length of contract may be more an obstacle than AAV. It’s a matter of priorities, which underscores the organization’s need to read the Matt Holliday situation. If Holliday is extended, the club may have to scrimp on starting pitcher or delay talks of an extension with Albert Pujols. It already appears a mortal lock that next year’s No. 5 starter will come from within the organization (Garcia, Walter, Boggs, Hawksworth, McClellan). Look for any deal(s) to be weighted heavily after 2011, when several deals now on the books expire.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll have a much better chance if they lock him in as they did Kyle Lohse last year, i.e. before he goes out on the open market. Believe it or not, Pineiro, because of his outstanding control and ability to keep the ball in the ball park, will be one of the most sought-after pitching free agents.

DERRICK GOOLD
Today, those chances seem minimal. Joel Pineiro has the look of a pitcher who will follow Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, heck, even Jeff Weaver, and so many other reanimated pitchers on the path out of town. His reinvention as a sinkerball pitcher has been well-timed and mutually beneficial — the Cardinals are getting his performance in a division-title race and he’ll get the benefit of recasting his career in a contract year. The one catch is this: Are the Cardinals convinced they have a pitcher ready to move into that spot? Are they willing to turn two spots in the rotation over to a competition of Todd Wellemeyer and minor leaguers like P.J. Walters, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.? If Pineiro is gone — and most likely he is — the Cardinals better be content with who’s coming up or be willing to pay to replace him.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
If the Cardinals act early, it will improve their chances. Pineiro has reinvented himself this year; his ground-ball rate of 73.3 is the best in the majors to this point. I think Pineiro is smart enough to realize he has a great pitching coach and a terrific situation here. That said, we’ve seen jumpy MLB teams give insane contracts to pitchers, so if Pineiro hits the open market, he could be very attractive to some bigger-market teams that need a 4th or 5th starter.

GERRY FRALEY
Pineiro’s agent, Adam Katz, is a realist, and that bodes well for the Cardinals.

The coming free-agent market could be flush with top starting pitchers. Righthanders Josh Beckett, Rich Harden and John Lackey and lefthanders Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn could all be available this fall.

Pineiro has pitched well this season, but he still runs the risk of being squeezed on the free-agent market and forced to take a leftover of an offer. If the Cardinals make a fair offer, Pineiro and Katz would be wise to take the sure thing.

The alternative is to become the next Jeff Weaver. He has had a rocky ride since his standout performance for the Cardinals in their 2006 run to the World Series title. Weaver jumped to Seattle in 2007, and did not make it through the season. He spent all of last season and part of this year in the minors before making it back with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a long reliever-spot starter.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d call it 60-40 in favor of Pineiro being kept around. Both he and Wellemeyer are up after the season and the Cards don’t appear to have two Major League ready kids to take those spots heading into 2010, nor does it seem likely that Welly is brought back. In that case you almost have to re-sign Pineiro unless his demands are outrageous.

Not counting the contracts of Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa (because they came in later in the season) the Cards will have roughly $40 million freed up after the season, though that includes Pineiro’s money and the contracts of Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. Keeping Holliday would knock $15-18 million off that right off the top, leaving $22-25 million for Pineiro, DeRosa, Ludwick and any other potential free agents they’d like to retain (Ankiel, Jason LaRue, Trever Miller, etc.). Things could be tight unless payroll goes back up to the 2008 level next year.

If Pineiro isn’t looking for a Kyle Lohse contract of 4 years and $41 million (which is what I’d be asking for if I were his agent) then his chances of staying will be better. If he is seeking that big deal the Cards will be facing some difficult decisions.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals obviously have been scuffling a bit of late. What do you think Chris Carpenter’s return this week means to the team, both performance-wise and from a psychological-boost perspective?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Carpenter is their leader. These guys look up to him. He sets an ideal example with his professionalism, demeanor and competitiveness. So having him back will undoubtedly be a plus. It will be reassuring. But let’s not get carried away here. Carpenter has made only seven starts and pitched 31.1 innings since the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series. The other four members in the rotation — Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro — have made 206 starts since then. They’re experienced. They’ve been around. They can pitch well with or without Carpenter in the rotation. And collectively speaking, the starters haven’t done a good job for the last 19 games or so, but that’s on them. The Carpenter injury shouldn’t be used as a crutch.

DERRICK GOOLD
There haven’t been too many gray areas with Chris Carpenter. He’s either been good or he’s been on the DL. A good Carpenter will perform an essential service for the Cardinals — give them a third pitcher who, at the least, can be a guaranteed quality start. The offense has recently spiraled, but don’t forget it was the starting rotation that went south first. Carpenter and the seven innings he can provide every five days instantly elevates an entire rotation, and will have a ripple effect on the relievers, who won’t have to stretch to cover those spare or ugly innings. That’s a lot easier to measure than the “psychological boost” of Carpenter’s return. But perhaps manager Tony La Russa’s giddiness concerning Carpenter is a tell. He points out there haven’t been too many gray areas for the Cardinals when they have Carpenter. They contend with him. They fall short without him.

JEFF GORDON
Carpenter would take a lot of pressure off Adam Wainwright — who is trying to relocate his mechanics. His last start was most encouraging. If the Cards can get their top two guys going, that would have a big trickle down. Carpenter could be the “stopper,” the pitcher who stops slumps. And the Cards are in a big one now.

GERRY FRALEY (Baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
To keep the bullpen from being used up by the All-Star break, the rotation needs someone to go deep into games. It is asking too much of Carpenter to expect him to do that immediately. His presence as a true No. 1 starter will help the club’s confidence level, but innings are more important now.

THE WATERCOOLER

SCENARIO: A major league club opens the season with a pared-down payroll following an offseason in search of “low-hanging fruit” for free agent help. The club’s 99-RBI third baseman from a year ago is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Its former Cy Young-winning pitcher, whom the club said was vital to the success of the rotation this year, is already on the DL again. The team’s defense has committed 19 errors through 20 games. And the club’s manager is shuffling his lineup more than a blackjack dealer to find the right matchups. Through all of this the club finds itself at 14-6 through 20 games and sitting atop the NL Central. That club is the 2009 Cardinals.

QUESTION: Given all these obstacles, and perhaps a few more not mentioned, what do you think is the key to success the Cardinals have had so far this year and is there reason to believe they can sustain a pace anywhere near this?

JOE STRAUSS
Without a doubt the longest question in the history of Round 2. That said, the key to date is the stability of the offensive core, the rotation’s early effectiveness and the bullpen’s solid performance when allowed to pitch in role. (We’ll give the defense a break today.) The take here remains much as it was entering the season: Minus Troy Glaus, the Cardinals will remain solid if their 20 best players remain available. The loss of Chris Carpenter is significant but won’t become magnified unless further attrition occurs. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are experiencing what the Cardinals cannot afford as Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol are all compromised. So far, this season represents a (near) best-case scenario for the Redbirds.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
This will be my shortest answer ever: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Period. Despite the insane, inexplicable hatred that a faction of bizarre, hopelessly bitter fans have for the manager and pitching coach. Can the Cardinals keep it up? Down to the wire, yes. They’ll be in the hunt in September. And that’s the goal.

DERRICK GOOLD
You mean besides the obvious two-word answer: Albert Pujols? The fuel for the Cardinals’ quick start is offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Cardinals led the league in batting average and were fourth in runs scored, yet this year’s lineup is deeper and has the chance to be better because the production won’t be isolated around the island of Pujols-Ludwick. The Cardinals’ hitting this April has papered-over serious concerns, like the innings the starters are leaving for the work-in-progress bullpen to swallow and the errors that force those same pitchers to pitch around. Even an offense powered by Pujols cannot keep up this current pace. Those flaws will come out.

So the starters have to go deeper into games if the Cardinals are going to remain atop the NL Central, and the defense cannot give away outs to make going deeper into games more difficult. The absence of Chris Carpenter is enough of a challenge for the rotation and bullpen to overcome.

Can the Cardinals keep up this winning percentage? No. Can they slow down and still win the NL Central? It’s bad form to back off preseason predictions (especially three weeks in), so I’ll stick with the answer I gave for the preview section. … Sure. Sure, they can.

RICK HUMMEL
The keys, in no particular order, have been the comeback of Joel Pineiro (4-0), who didn’t win his fourth game until August last year; the emergence of Ryan Franklin from a tangled bullpen as the closer; the insight and, even daring, of manager Tony La Russa to find the right daily combinations in the outfield and at third base; the ability of catcher Yadier Molina and the pitchers to absolutely nullify the opposition’s running game. . . and, of course, Albert Pujols. Nobody else has a player like that and anybody who does will always be a contender. Will the Cardinals play .700 ball? No. Could they win 90 or more games? Yes. Will they? I thought 90 before the season, so I’ll stay with that.

JEFF GORDON
There are three keys to the Cards success:

1) The much-maligned Cards managed investing in pitching, extending Kyle Lohse’s deal a year after doing the same for Joel Pineiro. These two are helping offset Carpenter’s injury. John Mozeliak responded to his bullpen deficiency by buying free agent Dennys Reyes during spring training.

2) The player development is paying off. Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs are helping the home-grown Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan and Chris Duncan get the job done.

3) Once again, the team located scrappy, handy utility players in Brian Barden and Joe Thurston.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is blessed with two outstanding coaches in vital positions.

The good work of pitching coach Dave Duncan is well-chronicled. Duncan knows how to get through to distressed pitchers and make them embrace his pitch-to-contact philosophy. This staff will not light up the radar guns, but it will get ground-ball outs.

Batting coach Hal McRae is equally good in his field. He teaches his hitters to use the entire field rather than trying to pull every pitch. A National League scout at last weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs said McRae’s hitters are unusual in that they can drive the ball to the opposite field. When most hitters use the opposite field, the scout said, they lob the ball for singles. The Cardinals get extra-base hits to the opposite field. They go into tonight’s game leading the National League in average at .296, slugging percentage at .476 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at .854.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the 2009 season kicks off, the Cards have many interesting story lines: Players returning from injuries, players switching positions, players acquired via trade or free agency and players making their debuts in new roles. Of all the interesting story lines, which player do you think might most surprise Cardinal fans this season?

JOE STRAUSS
I believe Colby Rasmus will prove valuable to this year’s club, but perhaps in a more nuanced way than most would project. Rasmus does not project as a 500 at-bat rookie. However, expect TLR to use him surgically by starting him in more advantageous pitching matchups; bringing him off the bench late for either defense or PH duty; hitting him No. 9 or turning him loose as a base-stealer. Raz’ likely will grow into his reputation as an impact major-league player. For now, less may be more. But it will not diminish his early influence.

RICK HUMMEL
Khalil Greene. Many fans and observers tend to look at just the previous season’s statistics when trying to assess a player. But, in Greene’s case, he looked this spring much more like the 27-homer, 97 RBI man of 2007 with San Diego than the .213-hitting, 10-homer hitter of last year. Off what I’ve seen, his average is likely to be much better than his .248 lifetime number.

JEFF GORDON
I’ll vote for Joel Pineiro. He never got rolling last year, as we all saw, but he was pretty impressive in 2007 (3.96 earned-run average in 11 appearances) while providing emergency help. He showed up in great shape and used his World Baseball Classic snub as a motivator. He just turned in one of the most impressive starting pitching performances of this spring. And fans forget that Joel won 30 games during the 2002-03 seasons in Seattle.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Khalil Greene has the most “surprise” potential in ’09 coming off his awful ’08 campaign. A lot of the other emerging players have interesting story lines for sure, but in almost every one of those other cases the player is a highly rated prospect, a proven veteran or someone that did good things in a Cardinals uniform last season. Hence it would be less surprising if they had success.

Greene will be a much bigger offensive threat than Cesar Izturis and he’ll be a better defender than David Eckstein. In fact, Greene should have the best offensive season for a Cardinals shortstop since Edgar Renteria’s monster ’03 season, though he definitely will not approach Renteria’s .330-13-100 (.874 OPS) performance.

There are several other potential surprises lurking on the ’09 Cardinals roster and maybe that’s why I’m feeling a little more optimistic about them now than I did at this point last spring. With reasonably good health — an interesting caveat to say the least — the Cards should be 4-5 games better than they were in ’08.

The question is whether or not that will be enough to get them in the playoffs.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming Chris Carpenter is healthy to start the season, how would you compare the Cardinals rotation of Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Carp and Joel Pineiro against the other rotations in the National League Central?

JOE STRAUSS
IF Carpenter remains healthy I believe the Cardinals’ rotation better than the Astros, Brewers, Pirates and Reds and very comparable to the Cubs. To project Wellemeyer as a No. 4 speaks well of the rotation’s depth. Having a guy capable of throwing 190-plus innings with a 3.71 ERA as your fourth starter is impressive. (I know Carpenter is pitching the fourth game, but no one confuses him with the fourth starter if he’s healthy.) Adam Wainwright will one day challenge for a Cy Young. The question is whether that day arrives this summer.

The Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden and Sean Marshall are best on paper. But Big Z is a health question, as is Harden. Marshall is a swing guy yet to pitch an entire major-league season. The Reds could potentially be interesting if Aaron Harang reverts to his ’06-’07 form. Bronson Arroyo is inconsistent but at times very effective. There are young arms there (Johnny Cueto, Edison Volquez) that make them a huge variable.

If Carpenter is healthy, it’s hard to envision many series in which the Cardinals do not enjoy at least two favorable match-ups within a three-game series. Health will be a huge variable on this club since there is no obvious No. 6 starter looming.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
It all comes down to the viability of Chris Carpenter. Last season, with Carpenter and Adam Wainwright combining to make only 23 starts, the St. Louis rotation still ranked a healthy sixth in the National League in starting-pitcher ERA. That was also third-best in the NL Central, behind the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers obviously sustained heavy offseason losses (CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets) and will have a less dependable rotation. If Carpenter holds up, the Cardinals will have the division’s No. 2 rotation. No. 1 still goes to the Cubs, who remain loaded with Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly and Harden. Watch out for Cincinnati. There’s a lot of potential there in Harang, Volquez, Arroyo, Cueto, Micah Owings and possibly Homer Bailey.

DERRICK GOOLD
If you assume health for the Cardinals rotation, don’t you also have to assume health for every other rotation in the NL Central? If that’s the case, then the Cubs have the better rotation, and the Cardinals have the second-best, with Cincinnati an intriguing third. But really the division is defined by who has the bigger assumption of health with its rotation. Call it each team’s Pitching Injury Quotient, or Pitching IQ. The Cardinals have less of a Pitching IQ than the Cubs, because they are banking on one arm staying healthy. And that’s what really puts the Cardinals rotation ahead of the Cubs — they have a lower assumption of health.

RICK HUMMEL
If Carpenter remains healthy, the Cardinals’ rotation is the equal of any in the National League. Ideally, it would be good if they had one lefthanded starter, something they really haven’t had since Mulder was relatively healthy here.

JEFF GORDON
Had the Cardinals bucked up to add a solid left-handed starting pitcher during the off-season, they could have built one of the best rotations in baseball — period. As it is, they will have two Cy Young candidates at the top of the rotation (assuming good health) and a very solid No. 3 starter in Lohse. That should keep the team out of prolonged slumps, barring injuries. Wellemeyer is OK as the No. 4 guy; he fits the mold of earlier Dave Duncan successes like Dustin Hermanson and Todd Stottlemyre. Pineiro could be a decent fifth guy, based on what he’s shown during spring training. But what really makes this group is the depth behind the top five. The Cards should have five solid starting/long relief prospects in the Memphis rotation, plus two decent swing men (Brad Thompson and Kyle McClellan) with the big league team. Overall, the group has come a ways since the unhappy Mike Maroth Era.