THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: While so much of the free-agent focus for the Cardinals seems to be on Matt Holliday or a replacement for him in left field, what is another part of this team where help is needed and that fans may be overlooking?

JOE STRAUSS
There is an obvious need to replace what Joel Pineiro represented this year. The Cardinals were a pitching-dominant team for much of this season, so much so that their offensive deficiencies were masked until September’s fade. Should Holliday go elsewhere, the Cardinals may spend more resources on a starting pitcher since they concede there is no way to replace Holliday with a single offensive talent. The public clamor for Boston Red Sox free agent Jason Bay is likely to go unanswered. It’s increasingly likely the club will seek to fortify its bullpen with an established set-up reliever to front Ryan Franklin. Think a Russ Springer type, not a Billy Wagner type.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals must have an everyday third baseman, something they didn’t have until Mark DeRosa was reasonably healthy in late July. And, of course, there is no guarantee he will be back. Also, the Cardinals must put together a bench with more firepower, especially from the standpoint of adding a veteran hitter.

JEFF GORDON
This team needs a proven power arm for the right side of the bullpen. That person could graduate into the closing role if Ryan Franklin is unable to regain his ’09 regular season form. And this team could also use a proven left-handed starting pitcher to balance up the rotation. Also, this team needs a lefty bat for the bench — somebody with some pop. So there is lots to do here.

DAN O’NEILL
Without question, the Cardinals have to improve their bench. Signing Mark DeRosa would go a long way toward that goal in that he can play several positions and he hits with power. It could also be that the club has more help for the bench from its Memphis affiliate (Allen Craig?). But certainly, the Cardinals need a bench crew that includes a good defensive infielder and a couple of bats that make the opposing manager pay attention.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
One of the spots in the starting rotation will still have to be filled with a Major League starter. I can’t envision the team giving Joel Pineiro a long-term contract based on one strong season, so with he and John Smoltz filing for free agency the team currently has two rotation spots open. The wise move would be to fill one of them with a solid veteran — maybe bringing Smoltz back — while leaving the fifth spot for someone like Jaime Garcia to claim in spring training.

I don’t think anyone is really overlooking this part of the team but while Matt Holliday is the big name we’re all talking about, let’s not forget that this team was carried largely by the starting rotation in ’09 and they’ll have to make sure someone is there to replace what Pineiro gave them this past season.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: If Kyle Lohse can replicate the success he had in Houston Monday night over his next few appearances, what do you think the deciding factors will be for Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan in choosing between Lohse and John Smoltz as the Cardinals’ fourth starter in the playoffs?

RICK HUMMEL
One factor is that Smoltz probably could revert to short relief, having been used in that role before. Lohse probably would need too much time to warm up to do that. The Cardinals are paying Lohse $41 million for four years to be one of their top starters. If he has two decent games between now and the end of the season, the starting job for the playoffs (at least the first round) is probably his although knowing manager La Russa, he may not announce his fourth-game starter until a day before the game. If then.

DERRICK GOOLD
Versatilility and durability will likely be the two traits that guide their hand. John Smoltz has the much better resume and deeper experience as a reliever — Kyle Lohse had a turn in the ’pen with Philadelphia back in 2007 — but Smoltz’s shoulder and how much he could be used in a short series is an unknown. Starting every five (plus) days is a different grind than pitching three out of four games. He’s confident that his shoulder can handle whatever role he lands. Late Wednesday night after his start in Houston, Smoltz said his “ego isn’t so big that I won’t accept whatever they want me to do. I know that it’s the playoffs and anything can happen, so you can be used in any way.” Lohse has to duplicate his success from Monday’s start and show the consistency he had in 2008 and this past April. He also has to show stamina and strength, otherwise this question is academic. Some see Lohse as the more natural fit in the No. 4 spot because of Smoltz’s seasoning as a shutdown reliever. If Lohse is healthy, the Cardinals seem ready to assume he’ll be effective in October, just as Tony La Russa said he’s comfortable banking on both pitchers being ready for either job once the playoffs arrive — even if that’s when the team decides.

JEFF GORDON
Smoltz’s vast bullpen experience would make him extra valuable in the bullpen. Unlike the fourth starter, he could be a factor in the first series. So if Lohse looks capable of filling the fourth spot — as he did in his last time out — that would allow the Cards to put Smoltz in position to strengthen the pen. If Lohse goes to the pen instead, he would offer nothing more than an innings eater. The Cards have other choices there.

GERRY FRALEY
The bullpen must be considered in this discussion. This is Ryan Franklin’s first full season as the closer. The job is more draining physically than it is mentally. If the Cardinals decide Franklin needs help to get through the playoffs, Smoltz is the likely choice. The innings he is getting as a starter are preparing him to be a reliever. Even if Franklin is hale and hearty, the bullpen could use an extra arm. Relievers are more important in the post-season because the fatigue factor has set in with starters. Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel considered Lohse to be his”secret weapon’’ as a reliever in the 2007 playoffs. That did not work out so well. In his only appearance, Lohse allowed Kaz Matsui’s grand slam that sent Colorado to a comeback victory.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Closer Ryan Franklin has blown his last two save chances and hs ERA is climbing in recent weeks. How concerned do you think the Cardinals should be about their 36-year-old closer and what would a possible backup plan look like if Franklin continues to struggle?

JOE STRAUSS
Franklin has been fatigued by his first full season as closer, perhaps moreso mentally than physically. Recent results show erosion of command and diminishing late movement. I expect to see less of Franklin in the last two weeks though he has a chance to become the first Redbirds reliever since Tom Henke to win the Rolaids relief award. Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte appear the most logical RH options to work the ninth inning should something happen to Franklin. More and more, John Smoltz looms as a postseason starter. All that said, it is difficult to imagine a scenario short of injury in which TLR comes off Franklin as closer.

DERRICK GOOLD
Blown saves are bound to happen. Ryan Franklin has four this season, and even Mariano Rivera, the standard, has averaged nearly four a season over the past eight seasons. These blown saves are magnified because they’ve led to losses and they’ve happened in succession, in September. No, the bigger concern here is something beneath — or perhaps behind — the blown saves. In his previous eight appearances, Franklin has six saves, but he’s also allowed 11 hits and nine walks. That’s 20 baserunners against seven strikeouts in his past 7 1/3 innings. Franklin is a location pitcher, and before Saturday he had fewer strikeouts (36) than saves (37). His approach puts a premium on command because there are going to be balls in play, and that works best with a lack of runners gaining free passage to first. If Franklin’s feel for his control is off, his performance is off. It’s too early to discuss backup plans. That’s partially because Franklin has had five months of ninth-inning cred built up, and because there is no caveat-free backup.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, the only back-up plan at the closer’s role would be Kyle McClellan — and he hasn’t been consistent enough to merit the promotion. John Smoltz might eventually help the bullpen, but we have seen what his physical limitations are. So the Cardinals need to nurse Franklin along and help him regain his sharpness. There is no other option.

GERRY FRALEY
Franklin’s slump was inevitable. He does not have closer’s stuff. Opponents put the ball in play against Franklin, and that can cause late-inning problems. That said, the Cardinals have no choice but to stay with Franklin. He may not have the stuff of a traditional closer, but he does have the makeup.

In addition, the Cardinals have no clear-cut option. When Colorado pulled Brian Fuentes from the role during its run to the World Series in 2007, the Rockies had a closer-in-waiting in Manny Corpas. The Cardinals’ best in-house option is John Smoltz, who had 144 saves with Atlanta from 2002-04. Smoltz’ current bout of tendinitis reminds the club that he must be handled with care and may not be able to handle the workload of a closer.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: John Smoltz got off to a good start with the Cardinals Sunday in San Diego. How important is that given Kyle Lohse’s groin injury and what does Lohse’s injury do to the Cardinals plans to eventually move Smoltz to the bullpen?

RICK HUMMEL
Unless Smoltz encounters difficulty in his next couple of starts, he will be in the rotation until Lohse comes back, which won’t be before the second week in September. If Smoltz still is doing well, he doesn’t see the bullpen until October.

JEFF GORDON
Lohse hasn’t been right all season, so there was always a chance Smoltz could play a rotation role here — if he showed staying power. If the Cards got to the NLCS, they would likely need that fourth starter. So Smoltz’s ability to get through the Padres batting order a second time was notable. He may have to finish out the season as the No. 4 starter — unless John Mozeliak can add still another starter this week. And if I am Mozeliak, I am trying to do just that. When Lohse returns, perhaps HE could go to the bullpen given his tendency to tire in the middle innings because of his lingering forearm injury.

BRYAN BURWELL
Clearly this impressive five-inning stint combined with the loss of Lohse makes it obvious that the short term for Smoltz is as the fourth starter. Don’t expect any seven or eight inning stints, but he will be handed the ball.

GERRY FRALEY
Tony La Russa would consider this blasphemy, but the National League Central race is over. Everything the Cardinals do over the final 36 regular-season games should be with an eye toward the playoffs. Because of that, the Cardinals cannot let Kyle Lohse’s injury change their plans for John Smoltz. They will need only three starters in the post-season: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. Smoltz will be needed out of the bullpen, and the plan should not change.

Keep in mind one more thing: Smoltz threw well on Sunday against the worst offensive team in the National League. The Padres are last in runs and batting average. An American League lineup of the type that beat up Smoltz while with Boston it is not.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
It’s a nice bonus but with an 8-game lead over the Cubs and only 36 games remaining I think the team should stick with the plan to eventually work Smoltz into a late-inning role. It might be wise to extend his stay in the rotation a bit longer than previously planned but the ultimate goal should still be to send him to the pen because they’ll need what he brings to the table out there come playoff time.

A fourth starter isn’t necessary in the playoffs but having someone who can blow hitters away in the 7th and 8th innings most certainly is. The Cards can make it through the rest of the regular season without setup help, but the playoffs are another story.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Now that the Cardinals have signed John Smoltz, what are your expectations for the rest of this season for the 8-time All Star and former Cy Young winner?

JOE STRAUSS
I believe what the Cardinals project will indeed play out: Smoltz will make 2-3 starts, at least, before migrating to the bullpen in a set-up role for Ryan Franklin. How he handles lefthanded hitters as a starter will likely dictate how much he is trusted against them in relief. By September, the Cardinals plan to add a third LH to the bullpen. If Smoltz is vulnerable to lefts, he and Trever Miller could form a formidable match-up tandem. It would be unwise to expect too much from Sunday’s start given that Smoltz has not appeared since Aug. 6. This is a low-risk/potentially high-reward move. Whatever Smoltz gives them should be considered a bonus. It is illustrative that GM John Mozeliak says the club has ended its search for additional bullpen help. If Smoltz becomes a serviceable six-inning starter, it is more than the Cardinals have received from the No. 5 slot all season.

RICK HUMMEL
Expectations should be modest, inasmuch as Smoltz didn’t help Boston much and if the Red Sox thought Smoltz had something significant left, they would have kept him. The Red Sox got him to pitch in postseason play, where he is 15-4. That being said, Smoltz may be more comfortable in the National League and might be able to give the Cardinals something of a Jeff Weaver-like transfusion. He ultimately will wind up in the bullpen for October play.

DERRICK GOOLD
It’s hard to reconcile Smoltz’s recent performance with the righthander we thought we knew. He struggled with Boston and in his last start he did not pitch well enough to be a starter with most major-league teams, let alone contending major-league teams. That said, Smoltz is a world-class competitor — and his internal drive is contagious. He’ll merge easily into the vibrant culture of the Cardinals’ clubhouse. Less clear is how his role will develop on the field. Lost in the big ERA and struggles he had as a starter was how effective his slider remained against righthanded hitters. At the least, he’ll be an asset out of the bullpen against righthanded hitters, and that’s truly what the Cardinals need. Any innings he gives them as a starter beyond his two-start tryout in the role is a bonus. He’ll be a presence, to be sure. It remains to be seen if he’ll be a factor.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cardinals are fooling themselves if they expect to get even a minor contribution from Smoltz. He has been dumped this season by two teams that know pitching: Atlanta and Boston. It’s hard to believe either club would have given up on Smoltz had he shown even a glimmer of possibilities.

Smoltz no longer has the arm strength to throw an effective split-finger fastball, which he needs to neutralize left-handed hitters. In Smoltz’s brief time with Boston this season, left-handed hitters batted .440 with a .788 slugging percentage against him.

Smoltz has had a superb career, is the epitome of professionalism and is a certain Hall of Famer. Right now, he looks like another Hall of Famer who did not know when it was over. Steve Carlton pitched ineffectively with five teams in his last three seasons before stopping.

JEFF GORDON
Well, he will help. He will work to become a Pedro Martinez-like starter for this team, working into the fifth or sixth inning. That’ll be a stretch, but it will be more fun watching him try than watching Mitchell Boggs walk hitters and Todd Wellemeyer allow homers. His better role would be the eighth inning, where he could set up Ryan Franklin, move Kyle McClellan toward middle relief and keep Jason Motte out of harm’s way. If Smoltz struggles for a few weeks and Jaime Garcia continues his comeback course at Memphis, maybe the Cards could go that direction. But giving him a chance to start and prove skeptics wrong makes much sense.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I expect Smoltz to struggle a bit in his initial workings as a starter, assuming that’s how it all goes, but to settle into a setup role as the playoffs get closer. Even if Smoltz wants to be a starter, a mistake in my opinion, the team certainly recognizes how unlikely it is that he would crack the postseason rotation. Give him a few starts to get some work in and see what happens while preparing for what makes the most sense, Smoltz working in the 7th and 8th innings primarily facing righthanded hitters. He could be devastating in that role.

THE WATERCOOLER:
The Cardinals are making inquiries on pitcher John Smoltz (according to Joe Strauss in his chat today). Do you expect the Cardinals to make another move, and how valuable can an August addition be?

RICK HUMMEL:
The Cardinals almost surely will acquire a veteran right-handed relief pitcher to handle seventh- or eighth-inning situations. That person certainly would be on a post-season roster, too, because anybody on the roster by Sept. 1 is eligible. Among recent August acquisitions by the Cardinals are veteran righthander Woody Williams (2001) and veteran outfielder Larry Walker (2004).

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Sorry for stating the obvious, but there’s a glaring need for a RH reliever. Jason Motte will have a good big-league career, but he’s regressed to the point where it seems strange to have him up here. With a 9.50 ERA and 39 baserunners allowed in his last 18 IP, Motte clearly could use a trip to Memphis to refine his pitching. John Mozeliak’s work isn’t finished. The Cardinals GM is under the gun to patch the bullpen. Is Justin Speier worth a look? It’s being reported that the Cardinals have inrerest in John Smoltz. Does he have anything left? Can he get you a couple of late-inning outs? It’s tough out there. How difficult is it to acquire a RH reliever? The Florida Marlins — a contending team — were so desperate they signed RH reliever Esteban Yan, who hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2006. And for those who say you can’t summon Eduardo Sanchez from Class AA Springfield, I present two words: Bobby Jenks. He made the leap from AA to the Chicago White Sox late in 2005 and became the closer during a postseason run climaxed by a World Series Championship.

GERRY FRALEY:
Philadelphia believes an August addition enabled it to win the World Series last season. The Phillies picked up veteran left-handed hitter Matt Stairs for the bench on Aug. 30, and he had a key two-run homer against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Unlike the blockbusters of July, August deals usually are made to add a needed final piece. The Cardinals could use a few of those pieces: a right-handed reliever, a speed player to be used as a pinch-runner, a veteran pinch-hitter like Stairs. After making the big deals of July, there is no reason for general manager John Mozeliak to stop now.

DERRICK GOOLD:
The Cardinals pursuit of a right-handed reliever has been blocked by … well, every other team’s hunt for a right-handed reliever. The eighth-inning rock they need will be tricky to get. The players are pulled back off waivers or their claims are trumped, which was the case with Russ Springer when Tampa Bay put in a claim and, by rule, had first chance at him before the righty dropped to the Cardinals. August additions can be quite valuable (see: Larry Walker), but the roles the Cardinals would be looking to fill this August are more fine-tuning than roster-changing. Their best bet, if they absolutely have to add a pitcher, is to acquire what John Mozeliak has, in the past, called “a lottery ticket” — that player who has struggled or has been injured and maybe, just maybe, hopefully could capture lightning down the stretch run.

JEFF GORDON:
This team needs another righ-thanded reliever. Jason Motte may put it all together some day, but he is hurting the team now. And for all the good work Blake Hawksworth has done, he remains unproven. So this IS an issue. I see John Mozeliak adding a veteran reliever to mollify Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan, but I would be shocked if he could make a quality addition. Too many teams are looking for help and the pile has been picked off.

* * *

Here’s what Strauss said about Smoltz in his live chat this afternoon:

“The Cardinals are fervently seeking a RH reliever and apparently are indeed interested in Boston Red Sox exiled starter and future Hall of Famer John Smoltz. The organization denied interest “at this time” yesterday but have put in calls regarding Smoltzie. They may be using the same playbook as exercised on Julio Lugo, deny publicly but pursue privately.

“Regardless, Smoltz would certainly add experience and postseason credibility, just not sure how much the future Champions Tour golfer has left in the tank. Stay tuned.”

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Blues were picking up steam just prior to the All-Star break. As more players return from injury, what do you expect to see out of this team in the second half? Anything specific that fans should watch for?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
The Blues won in Boston and Chicago before the All-Star break, but other than a little better goaltending, they didn’t play any better than they have the last month or two. I believe the second half of the season will be more of the same. You’re going to see the same effort, and on some nights it’s going to be enough to win.

I don’t think the Blues should count on any boost from the return of their injured players. Andy McDonald (ankle) still isn’t ready to play, Roman Polak (foot) is still weeks away and Eric Brewer (back) may not come back this season.

I’m interested in seeing what the second half has to bring, but to me it’s not about where the Blues finish in the standings. My interest is in the moves the Blues make to better themselves for next season, and which players on the roster show that they want to be back next season.

TOM TIMMERMANN
The Blues’ season will be decided between now and the trade deadline on March 4. The schedule works to their favor: 10 games at home, 7 on the road, and seven games against teams not in the playoffs as of now. (Plus one with Chicago, who the Blues have been beating up on.) So if the Blues stay healthy, they might do just well enough to get into the playoff picture and be buyers rather than sellers at the deadline, though even then they might send Keith Tkachuk to a contender for a Stanley Cup chance. But it’s also likely that in the next week or two, a loose tray table on the team plane will dislocate someone’s elbow. And if the Blues are in the picture, six of their final seven games are on the road, so they’ll need to have a comfortable edge going into the final weeks.

DAN O’NEILL
On one hand, the break came at a bad time. On the other hand, it gave a player like Andy McDonald an extra week to get healthy. The Blues played excellent hockey for at least two weeks leading up to the break, even in games they lost.

If they can continue to match that energy level and get McDonald back, I still think it is possible — not probable, with all the teams ahead of them in the standings, but possible — they could put together a streak and get back in the playoff picture. But that is entirely predicated on the club getting better than the average goaltending it got during the first half.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I expect the Blues to continue to elevate their game. Over the last month they’re 6-6 with 5 of the 6 losses coming by just a single goal and several of those losses coming against the NHL’s elite. They also notched wins against San Jose, Boston and Chicago. All of that is despite the fact that they’ve been missing key players.

The key to the Blues’ success the rest of the way will be the goaltending. Coming out of the All-Star break the Blues rank 26th in goals against and 27th in save percentage. Just imagine where this team could be in the standings if they were getting the kind of All-Star caliber play they got from Manny last year (2.41 GA, .911 SP).

The Blues have 12 one-goal losses this season, 8 in regulation, plus two other 2-goal losses that only got that way after empy netters from the opposing team. That’s 24 points left on the board in 1-goal games alone for a team that is 9 points out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. With better play between the pipes this is a playoff-caliber club. The question is whether or not they have enough games to dig themselves out even if they do get things going from here on out.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, Team 1380)
If you follow the Blues closely you are well aware of the fact that this is a team loaded with injuries, as well as a team you can count on to provide a solid effort on most nights. With that being said the Blues are no different than any other team in that they have virtually no chance unless they get better goaltending than what we’ve seen thus far this season. It will be very interesting to see if goaltender Chris Mason is given a chance to run with the No. 1 job down the stretch. The club is nearly at its wits end with Manny Legace, and Mason will be back next season with another year left on his contract. So far Mason has struggled to solidify himself as a goalie the Blues can count on to take on the load that comes with being a No. 1 NHL goaltender.

We all love the excitement the trade deadline brings and this March is expected to be no different than the last few seasons. Obviously Keith Tkachuk will draw the most attention even though his focus remains on trying to put the Blues in position to make the playoffs. A few other players could be moved as well, including Dan Hinote, Legace, and Andy McDonald if the Blues are unsuccessful in re-signing the shifty forward.

Other things to look for include whether or not Captain Eric Brewer will return — some inside the organization say he’s out for the year while John Davidson says that determination hasn’t been made. Can Brad Boyes get hot and reach 40 goals for the second straight season? Can Patrik Berglund make a real run at the Calder trophy, which goes to the NHL’s rookie of the year? Will the Blues sign Notre Dame D-man Ian Cole and give him an NHL game or two before the season expires? I could go on and on, but these are a few things to chew on.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Special thanks to Kevin Wheeler and Andy Strickland for offering up their insights. I thought it might be fun to occasionally bring in some voices from outside the paper. Kevin and Andy answered the call to arms. Hopefully I’ll be able to snag a few others from time to time … and bring Kevin and Andy back, too, of course.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

PUCK TALK, PART DEUX: The fun and games of all-star weekend are over and team’s get back to work on the second half of the season tonight. There’s playoff spots to be won for some, rebuilding to be done for others. Oh, and there’s a very important date looming: March 4. The trade deadline always shakes things up around the league. I thought I’d link you to a nice piece on NHL.com about the season’s midway point. They also point out six teams you’ll want to watch in the second half. (Sorry, they didn’t include the Blues.)

SUPER BOWL, INDEED: Super Bowl history is littered with players behaving badly during the week leading up to the big game. It’s no secret that some multi-million dollar players like to get out and have a little fun. Well, Tampa may just be the place. According to the Arizona Republic, there are 43 strip clubs in the Tampa metropolitan area, including a place called Mons Venus, listed amond the world’s best strip blubs by a Web site called The Ultimate Strip Club List. In fact, the clubs are so popular among Super Bowl visitors, The Tampa Tribune put a link to its Web site listing the 43 strip clubs and providing information on each to help visitors decide how they might want to spend an evening.

I wonder if there are Vegas odds on which player(s) gets in trouble this week at one of these fine establishments?

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THINGS TO PONDER

PETTITTE BACK TO YANKEES: On one hand, it’s a yawner. Yankees sign another player. On the other hand, it’s another example that some good pitchers can be had on the cheap in this year’s free agent market. Pettitte becomes the third former All-Star (this one a lefty, no less) who has signed a one-year deal in the $5 to $6 million range with lots of incentives based on performance — the others being John Smoltz and Brad Penny.

Please tell me what risk the Cardinals run by inking any of these guys to such a deal. If they are just average based on their careers, you’ve got a steal. If they are below-average, they likely still win you 12 games or so for a relatively cheap price. And either way, you can walk away from the deal in one year with no strings attached.

But what do I know … I didn’t go to GM school.

DID I SAY THAT? If you read this blog yesterday, you saw my thoughts on the insanity of Chargers general manager A.J. Smith making comments that would indicate he’s ready to run All-Pro RB LaDainian Tomlinson out of town. Well, apparently, Smith has had a change of heart.

“I just answered a question and unfortunately my response was inappropriate,” Smith told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “After reading my response to the question, I can see why it was interpreted the way it was. I absolutely meant no disrespect toward LT — none. I have the utmost respect for him on two fronts — as a player and as a person.”

Not sure why the sudden change of heart. Was it because, as the Union-Tribune reported, that team president Dean Spanos was “very upset” about the public statements? Was it because star players such as linebacker Shawne Merriman expressed anger over the comments? Or was it because Smith is a faithful reader of Round Two?

We’ll just never know.

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SUPER BOWL PREDICTION

28-17 — That’s my final score for this Sunday’s Super Bowl. The winner? Pittsburgh. Oddsmakers are still giving the Cardinals 7 points, but I wouldn’t touch that spread. My heart is warmed by the Kurt Warner story just like anyone else, but I doubt the Steelers defense feels the same. Pittsburgh will manhandle Arizona WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in a way they haven’t seen all season, and Warner may spend more time on his back this weekend than Marc Bulger did all season. There you have it.

TODAY’S TOP STORIES

KNOWING A BARGAIN WHEN YOU SEE ONE: “Good stuff cheap” read’s the Boston Globe’s online headline this morning. This after the announcement that the Red Sox have reached a preliminary agreement with future Hall of Fame starter/closer John Smoltz on a one-year, $5 million deal. According to the report, Smoltz, 41, will finalize the deal later today and can earn another $5 million in performance incentives.

Oh, and the Red Sox also picked up former first-round pick Rocco Baldelli in a one-year, performance-laden deal.

You think of the big, bad Red Sox as a free-wheeling, free-spending organization, but after missing out in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes the Bosox have acted with financial prudence, taking shots on guys who have exceeded at the highest level, and doing so at discount prices that only escalate based on actual performance.

You may recall the Red Sox already have signed former Dodgers ace Brad Penny to a one-year, $5 million deal. That escalates to the neighborhood of $8 million with performance incentives.

Both Smoltz and Penny had some injury issues last season, but both also have shown the ability to perform at an extemely high level when healthy, Smoltz in a Cooperstown-sort-of-way. The Sox have invested $10 million guaranteed that the two can help them push toward another World Series. And if they don’t perform, Boston can walk away after one year and not be bogged down by long-term contracts.

Both examples, to me, seem exactly the kind of deal the Cardinals have indicated they are looking for. Smoltz, in particular, meets the characteristics of the kind of player described by manager Tony La Russa just last week that he’d like to have — someone with starting and closing experience. Alas, the Cardinals remain on the sidelines.

Perhaps the Cards are doing the right thing by remaining patient as the market for pitchers sets itself. Then again, you don’t want patience to turn into paralysis.

IN OTHER BASEBALL NEWS: The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is reporting today that the Brewers have signed all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman to a one-year, $6 million deal. Hoffman can earn an addition $1.5 million in incentives, based on games finished, according to the report. So scratch Hoffman off the list. You can read what the Journal-Sentinel and Milwaukee fans have to say at the blog site highlighted above.

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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Who will win tonight’s BCS Championship game between Florida and Oklahoma and what will be the final score?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Florida “holds” Oklahoma four touchdowns below what it’s been scoring in the second half of the season but can’t quite stop the Sooners.
Oklahoma 35, Florida 28

STU DURANDO
The SEC doesn’t lose in the championship game. I’m sick of the SEC but until it loses I can’t pick against any of its teams. However, this game is completely anti-climactic to me. The BCS folks have made this an afterthought by playing on a Thursday night, a week after New Year’s Day. I feel more like I’m about to watch a great season opener for 2009.
Florida 37, Oklahoma 30

JOE STRAUSS
If money grew on trees, this is what handicappers would refer to as “low-hanging money.” As the bowl season has screamed: The SEC is big league, the Big 12 is 4-A. Teams that don’t play defense don’t hang against SEC big boys. Ask Texas Tech. Oklahoma has an underrated defense — within the Big 12. A late score makes this one deceptively close.
Florida 38, Oklahoma 32. (Give the points.)

TOM TIMMERMANN
I saw a lot more of Oklahoma this year than I did Florida, which has probably colored my thinking that the Sooners are better. I’m counting on Oklahoma’s defense to make the plays needed for the win.
Oklahoma 28, Florida 27

CAMERON HOLLWAY
Tonight’s game is no more a “championship” than Utah-Alabama, USC-Penn State or Texas-Ohio State. Utah is the national champion, and USC, Texas and tonight’s winner belong in the conversation. I picked Oklahoma to be crowned in the preseason, so I’ll have to stick with that pick. The Sooners offensive line might be the best in NCAA history, which gives Sam Bradford the time to pick any defense apart.
Oklahoma 34, Florida 31.

REID LAYMANCE
The Sooners’ only loss this season came against Texas, a team with a gritty QB (Colt McCoy) and a good kick returner (Jordan Shipley). Florida has that and maybe a bit more in Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin.
Florida 35, Oklahoma 33

PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: Everyone’s got a 50-50 chance at getting the above question right. How hard is that? The really challenge was picking the national champion before the season began. Take a look at who our college football writers, columnists and college editor said would win it all in our preseason preview.

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QUESTION TO THE READERS

MACLIN A MIZZOU GREAT? On the eve of Jeremy Maclin announcing his decision between the NFL and staying in school, I got to wondering about where he would rank with all-time Mizzou football greats. I didn’t grow up here so I don’t have a great historical perspective as far as seeing guys play. I know what my eyes tell me about Maclin: He’s an incredibly talented athlete who glides so smoothly while juking opponents it often seems he’s doing it effortlessly. If he goes pro now, does he hurt his legacy among Mizzou greats, or perhaps not even be considered one? Or has he already put himself in the upper-tier in the schools annals? Educate me on this one.

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STAT OF THE DAY

7,354.2 — Career innings pitched by Cy Young, the most in Major League history. That averages out to about 334 innings pitched per season in his 22-year career. Pretty amazing, huh?