THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: If Kyle Lohse can replicate the success he had in Houston Monday night over his next few appearances, what do you think the deciding factors will be for Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan in choosing between Lohse and John Smoltz as the Cardinals’ fourth starter in the playoffs?

RICK HUMMEL
One factor is that Smoltz probably could revert to short relief, having been used in that role before. Lohse probably would need too much time to warm up to do that. The Cardinals are paying Lohse $41 million for four years to be one of their top starters. If he has two decent games between now and the end of the season, the starting job for the playoffs (at least the first round) is probably his although knowing manager La Russa, he may not announce his fourth-game starter until a day before the game. If then.

DERRICK GOOLD
Versatilility and durability will likely be the two traits that guide their hand. John Smoltz has the much better resume and deeper experience as a reliever — Kyle Lohse had a turn in the ’pen with Philadelphia back in 2007 — but Smoltz’s shoulder and how much he could be used in a short series is an unknown. Starting every five (plus) days is a different grind than pitching three out of four games. He’s confident that his shoulder can handle whatever role he lands. Late Wednesday night after his start in Houston, Smoltz said his “ego isn’t so big that I won’t accept whatever they want me to do. I know that it’s the playoffs and anything can happen, so you can be used in any way.” Lohse has to duplicate his success from Monday’s start and show the consistency he had in 2008 and this past April. He also has to show stamina and strength, otherwise this question is academic. Some see Lohse as the more natural fit in the No. 4 spot because of Smoltz’s seasoning as a shutdown reliever. If Lohse is healthy, the Cardinals seem ready to assume he’ll be effective in October, just as Tony La Russa said he’s comfortable banking on both pitchers being ready for either job once the playoffs arrive — even if that’s when the team decides.

JEFF GORDON
Smoltz’s vast bullpen experience would make him extra valuable in the bullpen. Unlike the fourth starter, he could be a factor in the first series. So if Lohse looks capable of filling the fourth spot — as he did in his last time out — that would allow the Cards to put Smoltz in position to strengthen the pen. If Lohse goes to the pen instead, he would offer nothing more than an innings eater. The Cards have other choices there.

GERRY FRALEY
The bullpen must be considered in this discussion. This is Ryan Franklin’s first full season as the closer. The job is more draining physically than it is mentally. If the Cardinals decide Franklin needs help to get through the playoffs, Smoltz is the likely choice. The innings he is getting as a starter are preparing him to be a reliever. Even if Franklin is hale and hearty, the bullpen could use an extra arm. Relievers are more important in the post-season because the fatigue factor has set in with starters. Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel considered Lohse to be his”secret weapon’’ as a reliever in the 2007 playoffs. That did not work out so well. In his only appearance, Lohse allowed Kaz Matsui’s grand slam that sent Colorado to a comeback victory.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: John Smoltz got off to a good start with the Cardinals Sunday in San Diego. How important is that given Kyle Lohse’s groin injury and what does Lohse’s injury do to the Cardinals plans to eventually move Smoltz to the bullpen?

RICK HUMMEL
Unless Smoltz encounters difficulty in his next couple of starts, he will be in the rotation until Lohse comes back, which won’t be before the second week in September. If Smoltz still is doing well, he doesn’t see the bullpen until October.

JEFF GORDON
Lohse hasn’t been right all season, so there was always a chance Smoltz could play a rotation role here — if he showed staying power. If the Cards got to the NLCS, they would likely need that fourth starter. So Smoltz’s ability to get through the Padres batting order a second time was notable. He may have to finish out the season as the No. 4 starter — unless John Mozeliak can add still another starter this week. And if I am Mozeliak, I am trying to do just that. When Lohse returns, perhaps HE could go to the bullpen given his tendency to tire in the middle innings because of his lingering forearm injury.

BRYAN BURWELL
Clearly this impressive five-inning stint combined with the loss of Lohse makes it obvious that the short term for Smoltz is as the fourth starter. Don’t expect any seven or eight inning stints, but he will be handed the ball.

GERRY FRALEY
Tony La Russa would consider this blasphemy, but the National League Central race is over. Everything the Cardinals do over the final 36 regular-season games should be with an eye toward the playoffs. Because of that, the Cardinals cannot let Kyle Lohse’s injury change their plans for John Smoltz. They will need only three starters in the post-season: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. Smoltz will be needed out of the bullpen, and the plan should not change.

Keep in mind one more thing: Smoltz threw well on Sunday against the worst offensive team in the National League. The Padres are last in runs and batting average. An American League lineup of the type that beat up Smoltz while with Boston it is not.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
It’s a nice bonus but with an 8-game lead over the Cubs and only 36 games remaining I think the team should stick with the plan to eventually work Smoltz into a late-inning role. It might be wise to extend his stay in the rotation a bit longer than previously planned but the ultimate goal should still be to send him to the pen because they’ll need what he brings to the table out there come playoff time.

A fourth starter isn’t necessary in the playoffs but having someone who can blow hitters away in the 7th and 8th innings most certainly is. The Cards can make it through the rest of the regular season without setup help, but the playoffs are another story.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Kyle Lohse pitches tonight against the Reds and Todd Wellemeyer on Tuesday. Neither has had the same numbers as last season. Which pitcher’s return to form is more important for the Cardinals?

JOE STRAUSS:
Either would be nice. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright are arguably right there with the Giants’ Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain as the NL’s most productive 1-2. Joel Pineiro enjoys a Top 15 ERA without the deserved W-L. The need for a fifth starter only eight times the remainder of the season would suggest it’s more important that Lohse find his bearings. TLR suggested Wednesday in New York that Lohse is improving physically but is not 100 percent since his 39-day stay on the disabled list due to a forearm strain. Wellemeyer appears to be on probation and must find something positive from Tuesday’s start. Is it a problem? Sure. However, the Chicago Cubs currently miss Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly from their rotation. The Cardinals could get by a with a 3-man turn if they reach the Division Series and could squeeze 6 starts from three arms in a 7-game NLCS. Talk show angst aside, many would take the Cardinals’ problems right now.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
Lohse. The 5th starter won’t get as many turns as the 4th starter the rest of the way. It’s important for the Cardinals to get Lohse back in 2008 form, because if he does they can line up a row of four quality starters. And few teams come close to that. Nudging this ahead into the future, if the Cardinals make the playoffs the fourth starter will get some assignments. Another reason why Lohse must get rolling.

RICK HUMMEL:
Lohse’s performance is more important because that spot in the rotation will get two or three more starts then Wellemeyer’s. And Wellemeyer could go to the bullpen, which Lohse really hasn’t done on any regular basis.

DERRICK GOOLD:
Kyle Lohse. Hands down. The Cardinals plan to limit the need for a fifth starter as much as possible, and that immediately reduces the impact Todd Wellemeyer could have on the remainder of the season. Lohse will start every five days and must provide the kind of quality starts that could determine whether a series is won, split or swept. Lohse’s ability to reconnect with his 2008 self has gained increased importance with Joel Pineiro’s road-trip troubles. Lohse has been billed as the team’s No. 3 starter, and the Cardinals are going to need him to pitch up to his billing to stay ahead and pull away from the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON:
Lohse is more important. This team needs four strong starting pitchers to have a real shot in postseason play. This team needs to get Lohse back to where he was last season — when he was the No. 1 starter for much of the campaign. A year ago, he could win some tough match-ups. Based on that, he should be the No. 3 starter behind Carpenter and Wainwright this season.

The fifth starter is the fifth starter. The Cards are 5-0 when Boggs pitches, so, despite La Russa’s protestations, the team could always revisit that in a pinch. Getting Lohse back to normal has to be the bigger priority. Come playoff time, the fifth starter might not even make the active 25-man roster for any of the series.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given Todd Wellemeyer’s recent run of poor starts, what are the Cardinals’ best options concerning a fifth starter as they move forward?

JOE STRAUSS
The path of least resistence would be to give Wellemeyer Friday’s start against the Houston Astros before re-setting the rotation following Monday’s day off in New York. That said, organizational patience with Wellemeyer’s inconsistency may have been exhausted in his last three outings, including a poor showing in relief against the Cubs before the break.

Blake Hawksworth is in the house. He had been pitching well in Memphis — his last Triple-A start was a 7-inning, 1-hit outing in which he received no decision — and could easily be aligned for Friday’s outing. Brad Thompson also started in place of Kyle Lohse when Lohse was on the DL. PJ Walters struck out 14 in this weekend’s start in New Orleans, but his style of pitching has yet to win backers within the major-league clubhouse. Mitchell Boggs also has improved recently, though his propensity to work in and out of trouble spooks pitching coach Dave Duncan.

GM John Mozeliak remains attuned to the trade market, though finding low-cost help for the rotation (Ian Snell?) is difficult at this time of year.

Something will be done, perhaps as early as this afternoon. But the answer remains elusive.
Barring trade, the best option may be reversing roles between Thompson/Hawksworth and Wellemeyer. Most would agree, however, that represents only a temporary fix.

RICK HUMMEL
For one more start, Friday vs. Houston here, Wellemeyer is the best option. After that, the Cardinals won’t need a fifth starter for about 10 days. Then the landscape might change.

GERRY FRALEY
The fifth-starter situation calls for bargain shopping. The biggest bargain out there may be Arizona lefthander Doug Davis. He is only 5-10 but has a 3.75 ERA for a team that gave up weeks ago. Arizona’s bullpen has three blown saves behind Davis, and the offense has scored two runs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts. The drawbacks are Davis’ slow pace and high walks rate: 4.5 per nine innings. When it comes to a fifth starter, flaws should be expected.

In this search, the Cardinals will be better served looking outside the organization. The minor-league arms tried so far have been found lacking. A pennant race is no place for an overmatched kid.

BRYAN BURWELL
I think in the very short term the way the schedule sets up, La Russa could resort to a modified four-man rotation. In the long term, the club could resort to bullpen games.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals made a long-awaited move this weekend in acquiring Mark DeRosa from the Cleveland Indians. With this team still hovering near the top of the NL Central and with a chance to win the division, do you think they are done dealing, or do you think there is still a chance they make a run at someone like Matt Holliday to fortify this lineup?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals are not done exploring other deals but they may have bought some time. GM John Mozeliak said Sunday he will take the next couple weeks to assess DeRosa’s effect on the club and act accordingly. Five weeks remain until the trade deadline. The club may believe its greatest need is a pitcher. Should Troy Glaus go on a rehab within the next couple weeks, there will be additional willingness to wait. The benefit of acquiring DeRosa now is first his production, but also assessing where he fits best on the club. He appears slotted as the everyday third baseman with Khalil Greene returning to the DL. But should Glaus progress, DeRosa also becomes an OF option, freeing up chips to acquire a starter or set-up man. Holliday will apparently remain on the market for awhile given Oakland’s heavy asking price.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Another move is possible, but Matt Holliday is probably too big of a fish to reel in next month. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pursued a starting pitcher to fill Todd Wellemeyer’s spot in the rotation.

DERRICK GOOLD
Adding DeRosa is clearly the move the Cardinals had to make — and make as soon as possible — because it keeps them in contention. It isn’t, however, the only move needed to cinch their intent to contend for a title. What they have done by adding DeRosa is put themselves in position to make a deadline deal with an eye on being better in August, September and then, in a Larry Walker-esque way, October. That includes — but isn’t exclusive to — monitoring the market for Matt Hollliday and seeing if the cost of doing business with Billy Beane drops as the clock ticks toward August 1. Pitching should also be on their radar. DeRosa fills a need. Now the Cardinals can look to augment. The bottom line is the, well, bottom line. Swallowing the remainder of DeRosa’s $5.5 million contract is palatable enough for the Cardinals that they still maintain that “payroll flexibility” to offer any trade-deadline fruit that hangs low enough some dry powder to land in.

GERRY FRALEY
Mark DeRosa batted cleanup on Sunday in his debut with the Cardinals. If that does not say the lineup needs one more bat, nothing does. DeRosa is a solid hitter, but he does not belong in the cleanup spot. He is an ideal No. 6 hitter, maybe with some time in the fifth spot. Given righthander Todd Wellemeyer’s struggles, the Cardinals are going to be in the market for another starter soon, if not already. Wellemeyer is 3-5 with a 6.32 ERA in his last 10 starts and has drained the bullpen by going five innings or fewer in six of his 16 starts overall. That does not fit with a contender.

JEFF GORDON
This team still needs more. If Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan continue to struggle with run production, this team won’t have enough offense to make a serious playoff run. Perhaps DeRosa will take some heat off those guys and spur better production. We’re seeing a lot of poor at-bats in critical situations. It’s shocking, really, how badly some of these guys are hitting.

DAN O’NEILL
I would think the Cardinals are done dealing. The Matt Holliday trade never has made sense to me, especially if it includes Ryan Ludwick. Seems to me you’re trading very similar players, trading your only righthanded-hitting outfielder to get a righthanded-hitting outfielder. I think if the Cardinals get Lohse back, they are set with their club for a while, if not for the duration.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals obviously have been scuffling a bit of late. What do you think Chris Carpenter’s return this week means to the team, both performance-wise and from a psychological-boost perspective?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Carpenter is their leader. These guys look up to him. He sets an ideal example with his professionalism, demeanor and competitiveness. So having him back will undoubtedly be a plus. It will be reassuring. But let’s not get carried away here. Carpenter has made only seven starts and pitched 31.1 innings since the Cardinals won the 2006 World Series. The other four members in the rotation — Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro — have made 206 starts since then. They’re experienced. They’ve been around. They can pitch well with or without Carpenter in the rotation. And collectively speaking, the starters haven’t done a good job for the last 19 games or so, but that’s on them. The Carpenter injury shouldn’t be used as a crutch.

DERRICK GOOLD
There haven’t been too many gray areas with Chris Carpenter. He’s either been good or he’s been on the DL. A good Carpenter will perform an essential service for the Cardinals — give them a third pitcher who, at the least, can be a guaranteed quality start. The offense has recently spiraled, but don’t forget it was the starting rotation that went south first. Carpenter and the seven innings he can provide every five days instantly elevates an entire rotation, and will have a ripple effect on the relievers, who won’t have to stretch to cover those spare or ugly innings. That’s a lot easier to measure than the “psychological boost” of Carpenter’s return. But perhaps manager Tony La Russa’s giddiness concerning Carpenter is a tell. He points out there haven’t been too many gray areas for the Cardinals when they have Carpenter. They contend with him. They fall short without him.

JEFF GORDON
Carpenter would take a lot of pressure off Adam Wainwright — who is trying to relocate his mechanics. His last start was most encouraging. If the Cards can get their top two guys going, that would have a big trickle down. Carpenter could be the “stopper,” the pitcher who stops slumps. And the Cards are in a big one now.

GERRY FRALEY (Baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
To keep the bullpen from being used up by the All-Star break, the rotation needs someone to go deep into games. It is asking too much of Carpenter to expect him to do that immediately. His presence as a true No. 1 starter will help the club’s confidence level, but innings are more important now.

THE WATERCOOLER

SOMETHING TO PONDER

KYLE LOHSE:
• Lohse arrived with the Cardinals in March 2008 with a career 63-74 record and 4.82 ERA.
• After going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008, the righty was rewarded with a new four-year contract with the Cards.
• Heading into Monday’s game with Philly, Lohse was 3-0 with 1.97 ERA this season. After being hit by a pitch in the left elbow in the third inning Monday, Lohse surrendered six earned runs thereafter. The loss to Philly left Lohse at 3-1 with a 3.22 ERA.

RYAN LUDWICK:
• Prior to 2008, Ludwick had never received more than 303 at-bats in any big league season.
• Ludwick broke out in ’08 hitting 37 HRs with 113 RBI and a .299 average in 538 at-bats.
• Ludwick has started the ’09 season by cranking 6 HRs with 21 RBI and a .282 average in 85 at-bats.

QUESTION: Seeing as how Lohse and Ludwick both had career years in 2008, which player’s performance would you maybe have expected to see drop off a little this season? And is there any reason to believe now, assuming health, that both of these guys can’t reproduce or perhaps even exceed their numbers from 2008?

RICK HUMMEL
Lohse would seem to have the better chance of replicating or improving his season because his 15-win total was relatively modest, compared to Ludwick’s 37 homers and 113 runs batted in. Pitchers can adjust to Ludwick a little better this year now that he has established himself as an everyday threat, although I can see him hitting 25 to 28 homers and driving in 90 to 95 runs. Lohse could win more than 15 games for the simple reason that the Cardinals likely are better than they were last year.

JEFF GORDON
To me, Lohse is more likely to have staying power. He has always had pretty good stuff. He has thrown a lot of big league ball. He was an ideal project for Dave Duncan. That is why the team committed big, long-term money to him. Ludwick, on the other hand, had a more unfortunate injury history and a thin track record at this level. Baseball is a game of adjustments and Lohse had been through the mill year after year. Ludwick is still adapting to life as a Silver Slugger-caliber hitter. If he does it again in 2009, then perhaps he can get the sort of long-term love the franchise gave Lohse.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Ludwick is on an upward career arc. He was productive for 303 at-bats in 2007 and better when the at-bats increased to 538 last season. Until Ludwick proves otherwise, there is no reason to think he cannot continue.

Lohse is much harder to reach. His career path looks like the chart of a fever, with highs and lows in rapid succession. He had consecutive winning seasons with Minnesota in 2002-03 only to follow them with 3 1/2 frustrating seasons. Lohse is on an uptick again, going 22-7 in his last 51 games.

A pitcher can control only his performances. Decisions hinge on other factors such as the offense. Lohse could pitch as well as he did last season and not be as productive. Ludwick alone can determine his progress. For that reason, Lohse is more likely to fall off than Ludwick, but that is not a given. Lohse just needs more things to fall his way than Ludwick does.

TOM ACKERMAN (Sports anchor of “Total Information A.M.” on KMOX)
It would seem to me that Ludwick would have a tougher time exceeding his ’08 numbers. Cranking out another season of at least .299-37-113 would be asking a lot, especially when pitchers have had more time to identify Ludwick’s hot and cold zones. Lohse, on the other hand, is an experienced veteran who has discovered how to be more efficient — thanks to Dave Duncan. Coming into last night, he’d allowed only one HR this season before Werth and Howard took him deep. I think it’s more reasonable to believe Lohse can achieve 15 wins again — and perhaps even a slightly better ERA in ’09 — as long as he avoids the long ball.

THE WATERCOOLER

SCENARIO: A major league club opens the season with a pared-down payroll following an offseason in search of “low-hanging fruit” for free agent help. The club’s 99-RBI third baseman from a year ago is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Its former Cy Young-winning pitcher, whom the club said was vital to the success of the rotation this year, is already on the DL again. The team’s defense has committed 19 errors through 20 games. And the club’s manager is shuffling his lineup more than a blackjack dealer to find the right matchups. Through all of this the club finds itself at 14-6 through 20 games and sitting atop the NL Central. That club is the 2009 Cardinals.

QUESTION: Given all these obstacles, and perhaps a few more not mentioned, what do you think is the key to success the Cardinals have had so far this year and is there reason to believe they can sustain a pace anywhere near this?

JOE STRAUSS
Without a doubt the longest question in the history of Round 2. That said, the key to date is the stability of the offensive core, the rotation’s early effectiveness and the bullpen’s solid performance when allowed to pitch in role. (We’ll give the defense a break today.) The take here remains much as it was entering the season: Minus Troy Glaus, the Cardinals will remain solid if their 20 best players remain available. The loss of Chris Carpenter is significant but won’t become magnified unless further attrition occurs. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are experiencing what the Cardinals cannot afford as Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol are all compromised. So far, this season represents a (near) best-case scenario for the Redbirds.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
This will be my shortest answer ever: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Period. Despite the insane, inexplicable hatred that a faction of bizarre, hopelessly bitter fans have for the manager and pitching coach. Can the Cardinals keep it up? Down to the wire, yes. They’ll be in the hunt in September. And that’s the goal.

DERRICK GOOLD
You mean besides the obvious two-word answer: Albert Pujols? The fuel for the Cardinals’ quick start is offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Cardinals led the league in batting average and were fourth in runs scored, yet this year’s lineup is deeper and has the chance to be better because the production won’t be isolated around the island of Pujols-Ludwick. The Cardinals’ hitting this April has papered-over serious concerns, like the innings the starters are leaving for the work-in-progress bullpen to swallow and the errors that force those same pitchers to pitch around. Even an offense powered by Pujols cannot keep up this current pace. Those flaws will come out.

So the starters have to go deeper into games if the Cardinals are going to remain atop the NL Central, and the defense cannot give away outs to make going deeper into games more difficult. The absence of Chris Carpenter is enough of a challenge for the rotation and bullpen to overcome.

Can the Cardinals keep up this winning percentage? No. Can they slow down and still win the NL Central? It’s bad form to back off preseason predictions (especially three weeks in), so I’ll stick with the answer I gave for the preview section. … Sure. Sure, they can.

RICK HUMMEL
The keys, in no particular order, have been the comeback of Joel Pineiro (4-0), who didn’t win his fourth game until August last year; the emergence of Ryan Franklin from a tangled bullpen as the closer; the insight and, even daring, of manager Tony La Russa to find the right daily combinations in the outfield and at third base; the ability of catcher Yadier Molina and the pitchers to absolutely nullify the opposition’s running game. . . and, of course, Albert Pujols. Nobody else has a player like that and anybody who does will always be a contender. Will the Cardinals play .700 ball? No. Could they win 90 or more games? Yes. Will they? I thought 90 before the season, so I’ll stay with that.

JEFF GORDON
There are three keys to the Cards success:

1) The much-maligned Cards managed investing in pitching, extending Kyle Lohse’s deal a year after doing the same for Joel Pineiro. These two are helping offset Carpenter’s injury. John Mozeliak responded to his bullpen deficiency by buying free agent Dennys Reyes during spring training.

2) The player development is paying off. Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs are helping the home-grown Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan and Chris Duncan get the job done.

3) Once again, the team located scrappy, handy utility players in Brian Barden and Joe Thurston.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is blessed with two outstanding coaches in vital positions.

The good work of pitching coach Dave Duncan is well-chronicled. Duncan knows how to get through to distressed pitchers and make them embrace his pitch-to-contact philosophy. This staff will not light up the radar guns, but it will get ground-ball outs.

Batting coach Hal McRae is equally good in his field. He teaches his hitters to use the entire field rather than trying to pull every pitch. A National League scout at last weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs said McRae’s hitters are unusual in that they can drive the ball to the opposite field. When most hitters use the opposite field, the scout said, they lob the ball for singles. The Cardinals get extra-base hits to the opposite field. They go into tonight’s game leading the National League in average at .296, slugging percentage at .476 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at .854.