THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: On this date last year the Cardinals were 12 games above .500 at 70-58, yet they already trailed the Chicago Cubs by 11.5 games in the National League Central. Fast forward one year and the Cardinals are 15 games above .500 and lead the Cubs by six games. The Cubs are struggling to keep their record above .500 while the Cards seem to be picking up steam. What do you see as the main reasons for the disparity in records of the two clubs between this season and last?

DERRICK GOOLD
The Karma of Mark DeRosa. Things started to go bad for the Cubs when they traded DeRosa to Cleveland in order to clear salary and roster space that was eventually used to sign the human volcano, Milton Bradley. Things started to go right for the Cardinals once DeRosa returned from his wrist injury and heralded a parade of newcomers that have elevated the Cardinals from a division challenger to a pennant contender. So, it’s DeRosa. Well, it’s at least figuratively DeRosa.

One of the biggest tangible reasons is the ninth inning. The Cardinals would have won the division last year if games ended after the sixth inning, but instead they stumbled to more than 30 blown saves and were, as mentioned in the question, light years away from running down the Cubs. This year, the Cubs have 17 blown saves in 46 opportunities. Six of those belong to unsteady closer Kevin Gregg, and the only NL teams with more relief losses than the Cubs all have losing records.

It’s as simple as DeRosa is symbolic: Own the ninth, stay in the hunt.

RICK HUMMEL
The bullpen is one big difference. The Cardinals have had a strong closer in Ryan Franklin. The Cubs haven’t. The Cubs’ best player, Aramis Ramirez, was out for more than two months with injury. The Cardinals’ best player, Albert Pujols, has been there from the start. He is the league’s best player. The Cardinals clearly are the better team now, with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo on board. But don’t give up on the Cubs yet. They easily could be the wild-card team if they don’t run down the Cardinals.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cubs many problems can be encapsuled in three players: Mark DeRosa, Aramis Ramirez and Geovanny Soto.

A year ago, the trio combined for 71 homers and 284 RBIs with the Cubs. This season, they have 18 homers and 63 RBIs entering Wednesday night’s play. The Cubs traded DeRosa to Cleveland in the off-season to clear payroll space for the left-handed bat that manager Lou Piniella wanted. That was Milton Bradley, and he has been an expensive bust and a disruptive presence in the clubhouse.
Ramirez missed about two months because of a dislocated left shoulder, and the offense withered about him.

Soto looks more and more like a one-year wonder.

With these three players hot last season, the Cubs led the National League with 5.31 runs per game. They are down to 10th with 4.44 runs per game this season. This will not be the year for the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON
Last year injuries destroyed the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright went down and Chris Carpenter didn’t make it back. Jason Isringhausen broke down and the Cards never found a reliable closer. This year the Cards have Wainwright, Carpenter and a reliable closer, Ryan Franklin. So this team was contending for the NL Central crown before adding all the offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, suffered every imaginable injury setback this year. And unlike the Cards, they lack a reliable closer.

DAN O’NEILL
The Cubs are a mess, with problems in the bullpen and the starting rotation. The Cardinals have added Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and discovered Ryan Franklin is a dependable closer. Last, but certainly not least, they have a healthy Chris Carpenter. End of story.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Even with all the offensive firepower the Cardinals have added recently, which team do you see as the biggest threat to St. Louis for the NL Central crown and why?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cubs are the only real threat. They were supposed to be the best team in the division and they still well may be the best, IF lefthander Ted Lilly, their most effective pitcher this season, doesn’t miss too much time with knee and shoulder miseries.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs. There is a reason why the Cubs have one of the highest payrolls in the majors — they have a lot of talent and they, arguably, have the best lineup and most imposing rotation … when … healthy. And that’s the key. The Cubs have been hanging around, hanging around, hanging around and hanging around and the longer they hang around the more time they have to get their Wrigley together, ditch the chaos and injuries from earlier this season and play like they’re capable. Their Central foes had their chance to pull away from the Cubs. And they didn’t.

JEFF GORDON
Until Roy Oswalt went down, I liked the Astros. That team has been on a prolonged upturn. The ’Stros can really beat up opponents in its bandbox stadium. But they have to have their ace. If Oswalt misses significant time with his back strain, that makes the Cubs the biggest threat — even without Ted Lilly. Neither team seems likely to make a major move at the trade deadline, though, so both teams could lose some steam.

GERRY FRALEY
The Chicago Cubs have the best talent in the NL Central. The most telling sign of that is the Cubs have not been buried despite nearly four months of slipshod play. The Cubs win despite themselves because they can out-talent most teams.

The Central will be a two-month drag race between the Cardinals and the Cubs. How soon ailing lefthander Ted Lilly returns to the Cubs’ rotation will be a significant factor. It is possible the rivalry will carry over into October. The clubs could push each other so hard that both will get into the playoffs, with the runnerup as the wild-card entrant.

LUKE THOMPSON
Even without their recent hot streak, the Cubs would seem to be the team with the best chance to challenge the Cardinals in the final two months. Lou Piniella’s team was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and now Aramis Ramirez is back, as is Milton Bradley, who is finally starting to hit. Of course, injury issues continue to cause problems, most notably with All-Star Ted Lilly. But the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central on paper, and that is probably still true even with the Cardinals’ new additions. It’s quite possible their one remaining series on September 18-20 in St. Louis could have large title implications.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cubs. They’ve had key players underperforming all season long, they’ve had injuries and a half dozen on-field temper tantrums that have almost cost them a Gatorade machine. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong — at least until recently — and yet they’re right there in the race.

The Cards have had plenty of bad breaks themselves, make no mistake about that. They and the Cubs are actually quite similar when you think about it. Neither team has played as well as it can play and now the Cardinals have some significant new pieces to play with. I also say the Cubs are the biggest threat to the Cards because I don’t think the Astros or the Brewers are all that hot. They’ll fade while the Cards and Cubs continue to sprint toward the finish.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Now that the Arizona Cardinals have made the Super Bowl, we see anything is possible. St. Louis Blues owner Dave Checketts proclaimed a couple years back that he would bring the Stanley Cup to St. Louis. How long do you think it will be before this team is not only playoff-bound, but strong enough to make some noise when they get there?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
The Blues are at least three years away from competing for a Stanley Cup. Now that they’ve got the young talent in house, they need time for it to develop and gain experience. When Erik Johnson, Patrik Berglund, T.J. Oshie and David Perron are ready, then the team can make a move for a top-flight player or two to complement them. The Blues can play with the top clubs in the league now, as theY showed Monday in Boston, but in a seven-game series it would be another story. That day, however, appears to be getting closer.

JEFF GORDON
Given all their injury setbacks, the Blues are at least two years away from making playoff noise. The team must find a cornerstone goaltender; that may or may not be Ben Bishop. We’ll see. The defense ought to be outstanding next season and beyond, but the team will still need to develop more scoring to help Berglund, Perron, Backes and Oshie. Lars Eller may be two years away and Phil McRae could be three years away. Meanwhile, the Blues won’t have the resources to buy a whole lot of help.

DAN O’NEILL
The Blues have a corps of good young players, and more on the way. They have been playing considerably better hockey in the past two weeks. If they could get one of their goaltender’s hot, get a couple of players healthy, I do not think it is beyond the realm of possibility that they could make the playoffs this season, but it’s a long shot. I think with the addition of a couple more pieces, they are more likely to make the playoffs next year. As for “making noise,” you never know once you get in. But it seems like they are at least two years away from a Stanley Cup run.

TOM TIMMERMANN
The Blues probably won’t make the playoffs this year, and they may get in next year, but won’t go far. So we’re looking at the 2010-11 season before the Blues have a chance to make some noise. By that point, some of the team’s players who are kids today will have become experienced players and a good many of the players who are here today will be gone. But I’m not sure if even then this team will be a Stanley Cup team. They’re going to have to pick up a big-time goal-scorer along the way somewhere.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

INTRODUCING YOUR 2009 CUBS: As Cardinal Nation flocked to the Winter Warmup this past weekend, Chicagoans were doing the same at the Cubs Convention. Chicago Tribune writer Steve Rosenbloom took the opportunity to take manager Lou Piniella to task for batting Alfonso Soriano in the leadoff spot, and offered up his own lineup for the ’09 club. He’s got former Cardinal Aaron Miles in the No. 2 hole and has this to say about it: “(He) batted .358 in the two-spot last season; that was in front of Albert Pujols, but .358 is .358, pal.”

Check out the rest of his lineup card. Amusing … but scary.

REALIZING THE DREAM: Sports and politics don’t mix, right? Wrong, if you’re ESPN. They’ve put together a really nice package at ESPN.com recognizing the historic nature of the day with Barack Obama taking his oath of office. They’ve got some well-thought out stories, vignettes from a number of athletes on what the day means to them and a story about how even Tiger Woods (normally not political at all) got into the mix. Plus, the network has a full lineup of programs today ranging from a Jack Johnson documentary to a piece on black quarterbacks in the NFL. You can read all about it and get a full listing of the programs at their Web site.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

WOW … JUST WOW: What an afternoon in Boston yesterday for the Blues. That had to be one of the most amazing final five minutes of a game I’ve ever seen. Oh wait, I didn’t actually see it since it wasn’t televised. I was watching via the CBS live scoreboard. I headed out the door to grab some lunch with five minutes remaining and the Blues leading 2-1. By the time I got into my car and flipped on KMOX to pick up the game, the Blues were trailing 4-2. What??? Then I heard the announcers’ calls on the Perron and Backes goals (do you know how excruciating it was not to be able to see the replays of Backes’ game-tying goal and just having to trust the announcers that the goal was good while it was being reviewed?) Listened to OT while going through a drive-through. Back in the office just in time to see Oshie and Boyes shootout goals … again via CBS scoreboard.

I can’t believe how exciting it was without even being able to witness it. Perhaps I should just drop my Direct TV and do it the old-fashioned way from now on.

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STAT OF THE DAY

7 – Number of points by which Pittsburgh is favored over Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII.