THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals cannot get Matt Holliday re-signed and that Jason Bay stays with Boston, who are some other options out there that you think the Cardinals should pursue to man left field?

JOE STRAUSS
First, it is premature to assume either premise. Holliday’s market may not be as firm as some insist, especially if Bay returns to Boston and the New York Yankees remain on the periphery. But playing along, the leading free agent outfielders remain Bobby Abreu, a Type A who can steal bases but is also a very limited defender who has suffered a significant ebb in power. The Cardinals literally return to where they started if Holliday leaves, becoming a Pujols-centric attack almost forced to put Ryan Ludwick into the cleanup role.

If the club is serious about giving David Freese a chance to win the third base job, its best options become a trade for an outfielder. John Mozeliak acquired Troy Glaus under duress before the ’08 season. It is feasible that the Washington Nationals make Adam Dunn available this winter before he enters the walk year of his deal. Dunn is owed $10 million next season, a relative bargain in comparison to a 6-8 year deal for Holliday or a 4-year splurge on Bay. Bay, however, represents an extremely good fit in St. Louis should talks with the Red Sox stall.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the reasons the Cardinals’ push for Matt Holliday is so pivotal to their 2010 roster is there is a steep plummet from the class of Holliday and Jason Bay to the other free agents out there this winter. Not one of them is an obvious candidate to hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols like either of those top-shelf left fielders would be. Bobby Abreu or Vlad Guerrero may have the name recognition to do so, but they don’t have that everyday, NL look at this point in their careers.

A name in that second or third tier of free agents that intrigues is Xavier Nady, one year removed from a 97-RBI turn with Pittsburgh and the New York Yankees. He lost 2009 to injury, but had back-to-back 20-homer seasons before that. Nady would be an interesting instant-scratch ticket. Some low-risk options could be found in the secondary market — the players non-tendered by teams. According to reports, the Florida Marlins are likely to non-tender Jeremy Hermida, a lapsed top prospect, and former Brave outfielder Jeff Francoeur could be set free by the New York Mets. Not the big-splash, big bat the Cardinals crave for the middle of the lineup. But if they whiff on Holliday it may be where the Cardinals have to go to supplement the in-house candidates and hope lightning strikes left field.

RICK HUMMEL
Give Allen Craig, one of the top power hitters in Class AAA at Memphis, a glove and work him out in left field all spring. His bat may be good enough but possibly not his defense. Otherwise, sign DeRosa, if his wrist is deemed all right, and make him more or less a full-time outfielder.

JEFF GORDON
I would keep Mark DeRosa and play him in the outfield, if it is determined Skip Schumaker is the long-haul solution at 2B. I’m not sure you can find somebody else with solid 20-homer, 80-RBI potential in free agency. This could also open the door for somebody like Allen Craig to get some OF at bats when De Rosa takes some starts at 3B to spell Freese or 2B when Skip gets a break against lefties.

There isn’t much to deal for, say, a Josh Willingham-type. A guy like Xavier Nady could be interesting to rehab.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the Phillies head to their second consecutive World Series it raises the question, “What does Philadelphia have that the Cardinals do not?”

DERRICK GOOLD
Where to begin? How about where the difference is the greatest? The lineup. The Phillies have one of the deepest, one of the most power-packed and actually one of the most underrated lineups in baseball. Chase Utley may be the most complete lefthanded-hitter in the National League. Ryan Howard, Mr. September to the locals, is a power threat that is emerging as a Mr. October. Jimmy Rollins is a former MVP (Matt Holliday was robbed!) and a switch-hitting speed threat. And if the number of elite hitters doesn’t reveal the gulch between the depth of the Phillies’ lineup and the Cardinals’ lineup, consider Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth are complementary hitters in that lineup — and would be linchpins of the Cardinals.

Too much of the Cardinals lineup is isolated around one bat swinging well. His name: Albert Pujols. The Phillies have many players who can spark a rally, continue a rally or invent a rally on their own. They don’t need three hits to score one run. They often need one hit to score three runs. It’s easy to take potshots at the studio they call a ballpark and acknowledge that it adds to the Phillies’ power threat. But here’s the thing: Take away the power, and the Phillies still have the balance and depth to bombard teams anywhere else, too. The Cardinals just don’t have that many dimensions to their offense.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Phillies had a much deeper and stronger lineup. If you go by combined onbase + slugging percentage (OPS), the Phillies have the edge over the Cardinals at six of the eight positions. (We’re not counting the pitchers’ batting performances in this statistical breakdown). The only spots where the Cardinals had the better OPS than the Phillies this season were first base and shortstop. The Phillies ranked in the top 5 in the NL in OPS at six positions, and were No. 1 in the league at second base and right field. Their outfielders, overall, were No. 1. They were No. 2 in OPS at center field and fourth in OPS in left field. The Cardinals lagged terribly in the position-by-position OPS rankings at third base (15th), center field (13th) and right field (12th) and were mediocre in left field (8th) and second base (8th). St. Louis outfielders overall were 12th among 16 NL outfields with a .743 OPS — or 108 points less than the OPS generated by the Phillies’ outfield.

The Phillies also led the NL in slugging percentage and had a lot more danger in their lineup from top to bottom, finishing with nearly 100 more extra-base hits than the Cardinals.

Finally, there was a huge disparity between the teams in their batting performance against LH pitching. The Phillies were the league’s second-best team in OPS vs. LH (.787) and the Cardinals finished last in OPS vs. LH (.674).

RICK HUMMEL
The one thing the Phillies have that the Cardinals don’t have is damage up and down their lineup, from No. 1, where Jimmy Rollins hit 21 homers, to No. 8, where Carlos Ruiz has been a postseason star. Also, they seem to be better hitters with men in scoring position.

JEFF GORDON
Run production! That lineup wears out pitchers. There is danger everywhere. How many at bats would Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus, et al, have earned in that group? Fans clamor for a one big hitter to protect Albert, but the challenge is to assemble a dangerous attack, one through eight. The Cards can move in that direction, even without Holliday, by weeding all their .230 hitters off the roster.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Power, speed, offensive depth, better left-right balance in the order and better defense. The Cardinals pitching is a little better on the whole but not by all that much.

The Phillies hit 40 percent more home runs (224 to 160) than the Cardinals, plus they stole 59 percent more bases (119 to 75), walked 12 percent more often (589 to 528) and they had a higher OPS (.781 to .747). In fact, Philly ranked 1st in the NL in OPS and HR while finishing 2nd in steals. They had four 30 home run guys this year (Howard, Utley, Werth and Ibanez) compared to one for the Cards (Pujols), which pretty much paints the picture for you.

In fact, 7 of their 8 “everyday players” reached double digits in home runs (Rollins had 21 as the leadoff man) and the only guy who missed out, catcher Carlos Ruiz, hit 9 homers despite missing 55 games.

The Cardinals had a strong team, one whose pitching carried them over the course of the long 162 game season, but the Phillies have a dynamic, explosive team and one that is better suited for a playoff run.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: You hear much talk among Cardinal fans about players taking a “hometown discount” to play here in St. Louis. Matt Holliday is the centerpiece of “hometown discount” talk right now. In your professional opinion, how much weight do professional ballplayers give to being in a certain town, playing for a certain manager or having a certain kind of locker room chemistry? At the end of the day, doesn’t money do the talking in almost all cases of free agency?

RICK HUMMEL

Rarely does a player not follow the money, and I think you find that true even more in football than in baseball. I think this especially is true in the early stages of a player’s career, when he first can become a free agent, and his agent is hell-bent on getting the best offer. Near the end of that career, if a player hasn’t won before or is comfortable where he is, his attitude may change.

BRYAN BURWELL

Money is going to ultimately decide everything when it comes to any business. But who can blame them, when they have an opportunity to secure the financial future for their family for decades? The hometown discount is a myth. Players want to win and get paid. If they can win and get paid, they will take a little less money. But if they can’t win but they can get paid? Cha-ching.

JEFF GORDON

Every player is different. Some need to find a comfort zone to succeed in. Others, like Reggie Sanders, can move from team to team and do very well at every stop. This can be especially important to pitchers, who live or die with confidence. St. Louis developed a nice pitching atmosphere, which makes it easier to retain key free-agent pitchers. I think St. Louis is a good fit for Albert Pujols, who reigns as king of the clubhouse. As for Matt Holliday, he didn’t choose to come to St. Louis in that deal from Oakland. He seemed like a good fit here, but it’s not like he fell in love with the place. I would be surprised if he didn’t go to the highest bidder.

DAN O’NEILL

There is overwhelming evidence that money is the bottom line. Jeff Weaver is a recent case that underlines that - comes to the Cardinals, has the most success he’s had in years, but takes more money to go elsewhere the following winter. Ultimately you have to hold the players responsible for that, because their names go on the contracts. And I don’t necessarily blame them for that. The loyalty aspect, or lack thereof, works both ways. But most players rely heavily on advice from their agents, so I think a lot depends on the agent. The Cardinals will find out because they are not going to sign either Holliday or Mark DeRosa before they enter the market.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you feel should be the Cardinals top priority this offseason?

JOE STRAUSS
Obviously, getting a handle on Matt Holliday’s situation is significant because of what signing him would do to the club’s financial flexibility. Likewise, losing him to free agency frees up significant money to pursue another direction. Holliday is Scott Boras’ leading free agent this winter. Boras typically leaves his top client on the market for an extended period. This tendency does not square with the Cardinals’ desire for a quick resolution. If Holliday reaches the open market, the Cardinals’ task in signing him becomes exponentially more difficult, so much so that Jason Bay’s name now freely floats within the organization. The team’s late-season meltdown against “plus” pitching underscores the need for further improvement.

DERRICK GOOLD
This very public eagerness to work on an extension with Albert Pujols strikes me as a non-traditional strategy, especially with two years remaining on his contract and his leverage likely never better with a second consecutive MVP on the way. It makes sense to do eventually, but why the push to do it now? Unless they want to do something in concert to make sure when they add a new player Pujols is still the highest-paid player . . . hmm. Simply, the priority should be outfitting the lineup around Pujols, Mr. I Want to Stay With a Contender, and to do that with the best bat that fits — the team’s finances, the team’s structure and the team’s approach, all of it. That still is Matt Holliday. Linking his best years to Pujols’ best years is in everyone’s interest.

RICK HUMMEL
The top priority is to explore the prospect of re-signing OF Matt Holliday to a long-term deal. If not, I would offer him arbitration (to make sure of getting two draft picks) and he might even accept that if there isn’t a long-term deal he likes anywhere.

JEFF GORDON
Top priority: Lock-up Albert Pujols for the long haul. Once that is done, the cornerstone is secured and all the other decisions will fall into place. The other matters are minor compared to this one. If he can’t be secured during this offseason, for whatever reason, then the need to re-sign Matt Holliday increases — since this team will need somebody to build a batting order around from 2012 on.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Bringing back the manager and the pitching coach would be at the top of my list. I’m not sure Matt Holliday is worth what the market will bear, so I wouldn’t rate him No. 1. Plus the team has kids like Allen Craig and Jon Jay who may prove worthy of an opportunity to do in 2010 what Colby Rasmus did in 2009. In fact, I’m almost leaning toward letting all the kids battle for the open roster spots early in the year and then dealing for veterans, if necessary, come June or July. I think what the team did this year worked quite well and I’d follow that pattern again just in case guys like Craig, Jay, David Freese, Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth and Mitchell Boggs have breakthroughs. Spend the money to get Albert re-signed and then deal for veterans in-season, if necessary.

THE WATERCOOLER:
Is it smart baseball to spend nearly 40 percent of a team’s payroll on two players as the Cardinals could do with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday?

JOE STRAUSS:
No. If the payroll were $125 million, then maybe. But with a $100 million payroll as the Cards were last year. No.

RICK HUMMEL:
If it were Pujols and Bob Gibson, maybe. But one of the players has to be a pitcher to be worth it.

BERNIE MIKLASZ:
The Cardinals are up against it unless they expand the payroll. If you count Albert Pujols’ existing contract, they’re alread obligated to pay out a guaranteed $55 million-plus to players in 2010, and it’s about the same in 2011. And keep in mind that the salary number is likely higher than that, because it does not include the arbitration-related salaries that will be paid to Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. On the positive side, the list does include three starting pitchers who are locked in for the next two (at least) seasons: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse. So they do have a rotation foundation to work with. And there are some young pitchers (Jaime Garcia, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.) worthy of an opportunity. But if Matt Holliday commands, say, $15 million a year, you are looking at $70 million to $80 million guaranteed obligations for each of the next two seasons.And that doesn’t include Pujols’ likely increase if there’s a new contract for him. Either way, it doesn’t leave a lot of spending room for other needs, including third base, a strong fourth outfielder, perhaps a veteran starting pitcher, and the bench. The Cardinals can pull it off, but it’ll be tight. The question is: what is Holliday worth? Is he a $20 million a year player? No. Is he a $15 million a year player? I don’t think so, but he will be if some other team is crazy enough to offer it. I can’t set Holliday’s market price. The teams shopping for left fielders will do that. But I see no reason why he’d have to be paid as much as Pujols. Not even close, really. If the market breaks in the Cardinals’ favor, they might be able to get Holliday at a “reduced rate”, though we’re still talking about an awful lot of money.

DERRICK GOOLD:
If that were the Cardinals only payroll bloc to maneuver around then maybe. But it’s not. The Cardinals also have Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse locked up for, possibly, the next three seasons, and in 2011 that trio will cost $33.5 million That means more than two-third of the projected payroll can be isolated on five players. The only way the Cardinals — or any other team for that matter — can lump so much of the payroll on so few players is if they can count on getting contributions from prospects and young stars — not players, stars — who not yet arbitration eligible. Colby Rasmus, for example, is one. Brendan Ryan, for another couple seasons, is another. Lefty Jaime Garcia projects as one. Outside the organization, however, the Cardinals are not viewed as a team that can lean this much on its minor-league system. The depth of the organization has improved. But its depth is mainly in complementary players. The Cardinals have players who will play in the majors. But there is a difference between minor-leaguers who play in the majors, those who stay in the majors and ones who will star in the majors. The Cardinals don’t have the obvious contributors storming up the ranks to paint themselves into a financial corner.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What are three keys to the Cardinals securing a Game 1 win tonight?

JOE STRAUSS

1. The Cardinals enjoy an edge in the pitching match-up but need to exploit the advantage by practicing what hitting coach Hal McRae has recently preached: aggressiveness within a tighter strike zone. My thinking is that seeing Skip Schumaker in CF would reinforce that suggestion.

2. Chris Carpenter merely needs to be Carpenter. He has beaten the Dodgers in each of five career starts. He knows that. They know that. The longer he goes, the more obvious the outcome should be to all. His five-and-dive in Cincinnati should leave him in good position for a strong outing tonight.

3. This sounds elementary, but the Cardinals have to more closely resemble the much-improved defensive unit of August than the comedic version that ended the season. Extra outs can neutralize the best pitchers and look to be the Dodgers’ only leverage against Carpenter.

DERRICK GOOLD

1. Chris Carpenter pitching like Chris Carpenter.

2. Ryan Franklin rediscovering his first-half form.

3. The defense waking up from its weeklong, collective and uncharactertistic slumber to play the kind of crisp, sound game that has inexplicably escaped the Cardinals since they clinched.

RICK HUMMEL

1. Carpenter gets to the eighth inning.

2. Franklin closes without incident.

3. Cardinals’ middle infield plays solid defense

JEFF GORDON

1. Chris Carpenter pitches at his very best. If he does that, he can shut down a deep and dangerous Dodgers offense. He and Adam Wainwright are the equalizers.

2. Outfielders not named Matt Holliday need to hit. The run production from the No. 5 spot in the batting order has been sporadic. This would be a great time for Ryan Ludwick to heat up again.

3. Ryan Franklin needs to close. We all saw his lack of sharpness late in the season. But he’s needed now.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cards went 5-2 against the Dodgers in two series played back in July and August. That was then. This is now. How do you think the Cardinals match up with the Dodgers?

DERRICK GOOLD
St. Louis’ regular-season success masks the fact that the Cardinals didn’t really hit well against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In seven games this past season, the Cardinals, as a lineup, hit .218 with a .306 on-base percentage and a .343 slugging percentage. The Dodgers were able to contain the middle of the Cardinals’ order, pitching around Pujols (who hit .222 vs. LA, but had a .400 on-base percentage) and handcuffing Ryan Ludwick (.192/.276/.192). Matt Holliday offers somewhat of a deterrent there for the Dodgers, but he too had his troubles with LA pitching (4-for-22 at Dodger Stadium). All of that reveals how the Cardinals went 5-2 against the Dodgers this season: pitching. And that hasn’t changed from the regular season to October. Of all of the numbers that can be tossed out there to illustrate the Division Series ahead, it’s really two names that define the Cardinals’ edge in this series: Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.

RICK HUMMEL
The edge the Cardinals have over the Dodgers is that they have two premier, top-of-the-line starters in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and the Dodgers have only one — and Clayton Kershaw still is in training. But Kershaw could be deadly pitching in Thursday afternoon’s twilight. The 5-2 mark is very misleading because many of the games were very close but in a five-game series, the team having two outstanding starting pitchers who potentially could make four starts is the better team.

JEFF GORDON
Randy Wolf will be a major pain for the Cardinals, given his ability to exploit their various offensive weaknesses. And LA has hammers at the back of its bullpen. But the Cards have a huge advantage with top-end pitching and with the Pujols/Holliday combo. The Dodgers are still sorting through their pitchers. The Cards seem set up to prevail in a short series. Neither team played great down the stretch and both teams have playoff-tested Hall of Fame-caliber managers, so this will be fun.

GERRY FRALEY
This is, by far, the better matchup for the Cardinals. The Dodgers lack a dominating starter. Their opening-game starter, lefthander Randy Wolf, is the bad-karma pitcher of the season. The Dodgers have nine blown saves behind Wolf, who has trouble getting beyond the sixth inning. Lefthander Clayton Kershaw allowed 4.79 walks per nine innings and also usually departs in the middle innings. The bullpen is fried after working 553 innings, the third-highest total in the majors. (The Cardinals’ bullpen had the fewest innings in the majors at 437.) The Cardinals were also among the first team to discover that Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers’ No. 3 hitter, can no longer handle hard stuff inside. Ramirez went 4-for-28 with no homers, one RBI and only two extra-base hits during the season series with the Cardinals.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you think the Cardinals’ chances are of re-signing Matt Holliday? And if they are to have any chance at all, how much do you think it is going to cost?

DERRICK GOOLD
Last offseason, Matt Holliday and his family sought a break from Denver and rented a house in Southern California, not too far from where he could seek the batting advice of Mark McGwire. It also made for a short flight up the coast on the day Colorado traded him to Oakland. This winter, Holliday said he is planning another move. He’s thinking Austin, Texas. He’s thinking somewhere more centrally located, somewhere close to his dad (NC State associate head coach Tom Holliday) or his brother (Vanderbilt assistant coach Josh Holliday), or at least somewhere closer than way out west. The middle of the country beckons.

Here’s betting his professional path mirrors his personal. The Cardinals have the best chance of any team at re-signing Holliday as long as they are willing to make a fair-market bid at re-signing him. The worst thing they could do is let him get to free agency and lose all of the momentum created by surrounding him with re-signed players, a division-title run and a ballpark and lineup that brings out the best in him. When he knew his time at Colorado was over, Holliday said he valued a place that was going to give him a chance to win consistently — not cycle through winning and losing seasons. He rejected an extension from the Rockies that could have been worth $84 million over five years. Seems like a place to start for the Cardinals, because they seem like a place he’d like to stay.

RICK HUMMEL
The only chance the Cardinals have is to sign him in the window before he becomes available to everyone else 15 days after the end of the World Series. If it gets to that, no chance. I think it will take about somewhere between $90 to $110 million for five years to sign Holliday. Then you’ll properly hear from the Pujols people about re-structuring that contract.

GERRY FRALEY
It depends on who is calling the shots in the Matt Holliday camp. Will Holliday tell agent Scott Boras what to do? A few Boras clients, such as Hall of Fame-bound righthander Greg Maddux, have done that. Maddux turned down more money from the New York Yankees to sign with Atlanta as a free agent.

Or is Boras in charge? In that scenario, the Cardinals have little chance. Boras does not believe in “home-town discounts’’ and likes to raise the bar with every contract. Boras could easily create enough of a market to get bidding into the annual range of $18 million.

If the price rises, the Cardinals must ask themselves a hard question. Can they afford Matt Holliday and still keep Albert Pujols before he gets into free agency after the 2011 season?

JEFF GORDON
The Cardinals will make a good offer, but not the best possible offer. If Holliday wants to stay, he’ll stay and get a nice bump from his current deal. But with so many big-budget teams looking for a corner outfielder, he would have to leave a LOT of money on the table. He will be the top offensive free agent available. I could see Scott Boras playing that into a $100 million deal somewhere, even in this tougher economic market. If I were in John Mozeliak’s shoes, I wouldn’t offer more than $80 million over five years.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d say the chances at the moment are 50-50. Holliday seems to like playing here and he’s having success, so that bodes well. The problem is figuring out whether he’ll enter the free agent market or not. If he does, there are some clubs with a lot of money available that don’t have an Albert Pujols to re-sign in the near future.

When he was acquired I thought Holliday would be looking at 3 years and somewhere between $36-42 million, but the momentum right now is raising that bar in terms of years and annual average salary. He’s not a $20 million a year guy — Manny Ramirez is the only OF making that kind of money — but there are some guys making $15-18 million a year who aren’t better than Holliday — (Vernon Wells, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Magglio Ordonez.) I’d say 4 years/$68 million or 5 years/$85 million would be fair estimates. Anything more than that and I’d be tempted to take a pass and look elsewhere for a power.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: On this date last year the Cardinals were 12 games above .500 at 70-58, yet they already trailed the Chicago Cubs by 11.5 games in the National League Central. Fast forward one year and the Cardinals are 15 games above .500 and lead the Cubs by six games. The Cubs are struggling to keep their record above .500 while the Cards seem to be picking up steam. What do you see as the main reasons for the disparity in records of the two clubs between this season and last?

DERRICK GOOLD
The Karma of Mark DeRosa. Things started to go bad for the Cubs when they traded DeRosa to Cleveland in order to clear salary and roster space that was eventually used to sign the human volcano, Milton Bradley. Things started to go right for the Cardinals once DeRosa returned from his wrist injury and heralded a parade of newcomers that have elevated the Cardinals from a division challenger to a pennant contender. So, it’s DeRosa. Well, it’s at least figuratively DeRosa.

One of the biggest tangible reasons is the ninth inning. The Cardinals would have won the division last year if games ended after the sixth inning, but instead they stumbled to more than 30 blown saves and were, as mentioned in the question, light years away from running down the Cubs. This year, the Cubs have 17 blown saves in 46 opportunities. Six of those belong to unsteady closer Kevin Gregg, and the only NL teams with more relief losses than the Cubs all have losing records.

It’s as simple as DeRosa is symbolic: Own the ninth, stay in the hunt.

RICK HUMMEL
The bullpen is one big difference. The Cardinals have had a strong closer in Ryan Franklin. The Cubs haven’t. The Cubs’ best player, Aramis Ramirez, was out for more than two months with injury. The Cardinals’ best player, Albert Pujols, has been there from the start. He is the league’s best player. The Cardinals clearly are the better team now, with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo on board. But don’t give up on the Cubs yet. They easily could be the wild-card team if they don’t run down the Cardinals.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cubs many problems can be encapsuled in three players: Mark DeRosa, Aramis Ramirez and Geovanny Soto.

A year ago, the trio combined for 71 homers and 284 RBIs with the Cubs. This season, they have 18 homers and 63 RBIs entering Wednesday night’s play. The Cubs traded DeRosa to Cleveland in the off-season to clear payroll space for the left-handed bat that manager Lou Piniella wanted. That was Milton Bradley, and he has been an expensive bust and a disruptive presence in the clubhouse.
Ramirez missed about two months because of a dislocated left shoulder, and the offense withered about him.

Soto looks more and more like a one-year wonder.

With these three players hot last season, the Cubs led the National League with 5.31 runs per game. They are down to 10th with 4.44 runs per game this season. This will not be the year for the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON
Last year injuries destroyed the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright went down and Chris Carpenter didn’t make it back. Jason Isringhausen broke down and the Cards never found a reliable closer. This year the Cards have Wainwright, Carpenter and a reliable closer, Ryan Franklin. So this team was contending for the NL Central crown before adding all the offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, suffered every imaginable injury setback this year. And unlike the Cards, they lack a reliable closer.

DAN O’NEILL
The Cubs are a mess, with problems in the bullpen and the starting rotation. The Cardinals have added Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and discovered Ryan Franklin is a dependable closer. Last, but certainly not least, they have a healthy Chris Carpenter. End of story.