THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: On this date last year the Cardinals were 12 games above .500 at 70-58, yet they already trailed the Chicago Cubs by 11.5 games in the National League Central. Fast forward one year and the Cardinals are 15 games above .500 and lead the Cubs by six games. The Cubs are struggling to keep their record above .500 while the Cards seem to be picking up steam. What do you see as the main reasons for the disparity in records of the two clubs between this season and last?

DERRICK GOOLD
The Karma of Mark DeRosa. Things started to go bad for the Cubs when they traded DeRosa to Cleveland in order to clear salary and roster space that was eventually used to sign the human volcano, Milton Bradley. Things started to go right for the Cardinals once DeRosa returned from his wrist injury and heralded a parade of newcomers that have elevated the Cardinals from a division challenger to a pennant contender. So, it’s DeRosa. Well, it’s at least figuratively DeRosa.

One of the biggest tangible reasons is the ninth inning. The Cardinals would have won the division last year if games ended after the sixth inning, but instead they stumbled to more than 30 blown saves and were, as mentioned in the question, light years away from running down the Cubs. This year, the Cubs have 17 blown saves in 46 opportunities. Six of those belong to unsteady closer Kevin Gregg, and the only NL teams with more relief losses than the Cubs all have losing records.

It’s as simple as DeRosa is symbolic: Own the ninth, stay in the hunt.

RICK HUMMEL
The bullpen is one big difference. The Cardinals have had a strong closer in Ryan Franklin. The Cubs haven’t. The Cubs’ best player, Aramis Ramirez, was out for more than two months with injury. The Cardinals’ best player, Albert Pujols, has been there from the start. He is the league’s best player. The Cardinals clearly are the better team now, with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo on board. But don’t give up on the Cubs yet. They easily could be the wild-card team if they don’t run down the Cardinals.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cubs many problems can be encapsuled in three players: Mark DeRosa, Aramis Ramirez and Geovanny Soto.

A year ago, the trio combined for 71 homers and 284 RBIs with the Cubs. This season, they have 18 homers and 63 RBIs entering Wednesday night’s play. The Cubs traded DeRosa to Cleveland in the off-season to clear payroll space for the left-handed bat that manager Lou Piniella wanted. That was Milton Bradley, and he has been an expensive bust and a disruptive presence in the clubhouse.
Ramirez missed about two months because of a dislocated left shoulder, and the offense withered about him.

Soto looks more and more like a one-year wonder.

With these three players hot last season, the Cubs led the National League with 5.31 runs per game. They are down to 10th with 4.44 runs per game this season. This will not be the year for the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON
Last year injuries destroyed the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright went down and Chris Carpenter didn’t make it back. Jason Isringhausen broke down and the Cards never found a reliable closer. This year the Cards have Wainwright, Carpenter and a reliable closer, Ryan Franklin. So this team was contending for the NL Central crown before adding all the offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, suffered every imaginable injury setback this year. And unlike the Cards, they lack a reliable closer.

DAN O’NEILL
The Cubs are a mess, with problems in the bullpen and the starting rotation. The Cardinals have added Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and discovered Ryan Franklin is a dependable closer. Last, but certainly not least, they have a healthy Chris Carpenter. End of story.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Even with all the offensive firepower the Cardinals have added recently, which team do you see as the biggest threat to St. Louis for the NL Central crown and why?

RICK HUMMEL
The Cubs are the only real threat. They were supposed to be the best team in the division and they still well may be the best, IF lefthander Ted Lilly, their most effective pitcher this season, doesn’t miss too much time with knee and shoulder miseries.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs. There is a reason why the Cubs have one of the highest payrolls in the majors — they have a lot of talent and they, arguably, have the best lineup and most imposing rotation … when … healthy. And that’s the key. The Cubs have been hanging around, hanging around, hanging around and hanging around and the longer they hang around the more time they have to get their Wrigley together, ditch the chaos and injuries from earlier this season and play like they’re capable. Their Central foes had their chance to pull away from the Cubs. And they didn’t.

JEFF GORDON
Until Roy Oswalt went down, I liked the Astros. That team has been on a prolonged upturn. The ’Stros can really beat up opponents in its bandbox stadium. But they have to have their ace. If Oswalt misses significant time with his back strain, that makes the Cubs the biggest threat — even without Ted Lilly. Neither team seems likely to make a major move at the trade deadline, though, so both teams could lose some steam.

GERRY FRALEY
The Chicago Cubs have the best talent in the NL Central. The most telling sign of that is the Cubs have not been buried despite nearly four months of slipshod play. The Cubs win despite themselves because they can out-talent most teams.

The Central will be a two-month drag race between the Cardinals and the Cubs. How soon ailing lefthander Ted Lilly returns to the Cubs’ rotation will be a significant factor. It is possible the rivalry will carry over into October. The clubs could push each other so hard that both will get into the playoffs, with the runnerup as the wild-card entrant.

LUKE THOMPSON
Even without their recent hot streak, the Cubs would seem to be the team with the best chance to challenge the Cardinals in the final two months. Lou Piniella’s team was decimated by injuries in the first half of the season, and now Aramis Ramirez is back, as is Milton Bradley, who is finally starting to hit. Of course, injury issues continue to cause problems, most notably with All-Star Ted Lilly. But the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central on paper, and that is probably still true even with the Cardinals’ new additions. It’s quite possible their one remaining series on September 18-20 in St. Louis could have large title implications.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cubs. They’ve had key players underperforming all season long, they’ve had injuries and a half dozen on-field temper tantrums that have almost cost them a Gatorade machine. Just about everything that could go wrong has gone wrong — at least until recently — and yet they’re right there in the race.

The Cards have had plenty of bad breaks themselves, make no mistake about that. They and the Cubs are actually quite similar when you think about it. Neither team has played as well as it can play and now the Cardinals have some significant new pieces to play with. I also say the Cubs are the biggest threat to the Cards because I don’t think the Astros or the Brewers are all that hot. They’ll fade while the Cards and Cubs continue to sprint toward the finish.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What would be better for the St. Louis Blues: They finish strong this season and make a playoff push or they stay on their current pace and get a shot in the draft at one of the game’s top two prospects — Canadian forward John Tavares or Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
This is a very difficult question because if the Blues went into 2009-10 with Erik Johnson, David Perron, T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund and Jonathan Tavares (who I believe they would take No. 1 overall), it would be the best young nucleus in the NHL. However, I’ve always been a believer that winning games is what’s most important, and the draft order will fall how it falls. Here’s the bottom line in my book: Next year isn’t Year 2 of the Checketts/Davidson regime . . . it’ll be Year 4. If the Blues don’t sniff the playoffs soon, they risk losing fans who may never be around to see Tavares wear the Bluenote. You saw what having Erik Johnson meant this season . . . nothing. Johnson is a tremendously talented player and will be a cornerstone defenseman for years to come, but a fluky injury ended his season, and without him, the Blues are wallowing in mediocrity. As good as Tavares and Hedman are and will be, I’ll take the victories.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Given the blitz of injuries, I don’t see the Blues as a viable playoff contender, which is just as well, because they’d be a one-and-done entry with a quick expiration date in the postseason. So bring on the kids. In fact, the Blues should do everything they can to accumulate more draft picks by trading marketable veterans.

JEFF GORDON
Blues season ticket holders don’t want to hear this. Neither does ultra-competitive coach Andy Murray. But this is the truth: The top two picks in the 2009 draft offer extraordinary promise. Either prospect would greatly advance the Blues’ cause. Since the Blues are unlikely to climb into the Western Conference’s top eight this season — given the long-term loss of Erik Johnson, Eric Brewer and Pauk Kariya — the lottery looms as a phenomenal opportunity. I would never encourage a professional sports team to tank, but . . .

TOM TIMMERMANN
Enough waiting until next year. The Blues haven’t gone to the playoffs since 2004, haven’t won a series since 2002. No one in the NHL goes four years without making the playoffs (well, maybe the Blackhawks) and if the Blues do that, there will be increasingly fewer reasons to be a Blues fan. The Blues need to throw a lifeline to their beleaguered fans by making the playoffs. Of course, I don’t think it’s an option; unless the ice at Scottrade comes from Lourdes, I don’t see them getting back in the playoff picture this season.

DAN O’NEILL
I think, with still more than half of the 2008-2009 schedule remaining, the Blues should definitely make a concerted effort to stay a losing course. If at all possible, they should try to get a few more key players hurt, maybe Brad Boyes could play a round of golf with Erik Johnson, perhaps Keith Tkachuk could slip on a piece of carpet. At the same time, coach Andy Murray should make it clear to his present roster that his new system will be based on glaring mistakes and half-baked effort. Call it the “Twilight Zone Trap.” What’s more, the marketing team should get on board and adjust the Blues’ sales pitch from “We’ll Do Whatever It Takes” to “We Won’t Do Squat,” or “We’ll Do Whatever It Takes To Lose,” or “We’ll Tank It Everytime.” Maybe they even could feature “Towel Man” in some ads and use the theme, “That’s Right, We’re Throwing In The Towel.” Or maybe they could just contact the NHL office and inform the league that they would like to forfeit 55 percent of their remaining schedule. Unconventional, yes, but hey, whatever it takes.

****

MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

HELP ME UNDERSTAND: The Los Angeles Dodgers have offered a one-year contract to all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, according to the Los Angeles Times. Hoffman made $7.5 million last season with the Padres and San Diego reportedly made him a one-year, $4 million offer earlier before withdrawing it in November. The Dodgers’ offer, according to the Times, reportedly exceeds $4 million. The report also states the Milwaukee Brewers are in pursuit of Hoffman, who is expected to make a decision this week.

Hoffman, 41, may not be the stud he once was, but he did convert 30 of 34 save opportunities last season. With the Cardinals’ glaring need at the position, wouldn’t a one-year offer in that range offer high upside with little risk? It’s a head-scratcher, along the lines of the Cardinals not taking a chance on starting pitcher Brad Penny, who landed with the Red Sox on a one-year, $5 million deal. But with Hoffman it’s even worse, as he could end up closing for an NL Central competitor.

To steal a line from a valued colleague: The Cards don’t seem to really be looking for low-hanging fruit … they want to pick it up off the ground.

BC BRINGS HAMMER DOWN ON COACH: After meeting with the New York Jets yesterday about their head coaching position, Boston College football coach Jeff Jagozinski will be fired today according to a report in the Boston Globe. While apparently there was no specific language in his contract barring him from seeking other jobs, upon his hiring BC officials had made it clear to Jagozinski that they wanted a coach for more than just two or three years. Jagodzinski had just completed his second 10-win season with BC and has three years remaining on his contract.

Wow, I guess Boston College meant business. On one hand, I question the severity of such actions when someone is just trying to improve his/her lot in life. On the other hand, I admire BC for sticking to its guns and making a statement that winning doesn’t mean everything. But more than anything I just like to see it when things go Bad in Beantown.

****

THINGS TO PONDER

CUBS’ BRADLEY IS THE BOMB: Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey writes today that, “What became finally and conclusively apparent in the 2008 postseason was that the cute, happy, aw-shucks Cubs thing doesn’t work. … Now comes Milton Bradley, who is so un-Cublike he probably wears White Sox boxers under his pants. … The Cubs aren’t bringing him to town to be a leader. They’re bringing him to provide another left-handed bat and light a fire. Light a fire, pull the pin of a grenade — it’s the same thing, isn’t it?

How a company that recently filed for bankruptcy keeps adding payroll is unclear to me, but the Cubs have clearly shown they want to be the Beast to Beat in the National League.

HOW ‘BOUT THEM DAWGS: Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford and running back Knowshon Moreno are both expected to announce later today that they will enter the NFL draft, according to ESPN. Stafford, a junior, and Moreno, a redshirt sophomore, led the SEC in passing and rushing this season, respectively. Some draftniks believe Stafford could be the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft and Moreno is expected to be the first or second running back selected.

And people around here think Mizzou underachieved this year. How did a Georgia team led by that kind of talent go 9-3 and end up playing in the Capitol One Bowl? And before you say it’s because of all the talent in the SEC, let me point out that one of those losses came at HOME against ACC opponent Georgia Tech.

****

STAT OF THE DAY

5 — Number of times Keith Tkachuk has been named to the NHL All-Star team after getting the nod today. Tkachuk, who became the seventh U.S.-born player to reach 1,000 points earlier this season, was also a member of the All-Star team in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2004.