THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: After laying a third-period egg in a very important game at home against Vancouver Tuesday night, what do you think is the most important thing fans should watch for in how the Blues respond tonight at Nashville?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
Keep an eye on the Blues’ defensive play. For the most part, the forwards played well in Tuesday’s 6-4 loss to Vancouver. Andy McDonald will take a few weeks to round into form, but he looked good on a line with T.J. Oshie and Patrik Berglund. The Blues were two for three on the power play, scoring those two goals in only 1:34 of power-play time. Chris Mason wasn’t great, but he made some nice saves. But the Blues’ defense, which has played well the last couple of weeks, let them down with five giveaways. Mason made 47 saves in a 1-0 shutout win over Nashville back in November, but he won’t do that again tonight if the Blues play defensively like they did Tuesday. Look for Mike Weaver to be back in the lineup, replacing Steve Wagner.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Hockey is a pretty simple game. Tenacity matters in this sport, and the Blues didn’t have much of it Tuesday after taking that 2-0 lead on Vancouver. They backed off. This is a team that must have an underdog’s mindset. They have to bring the effort and the physical play for 60 minutes. That didn’t happen against Vancouver. The Blues went into a cruise-control mode. So they have to come out flying tonight, and take the play to Nashville. I didn’t think Chris Mason was sharp against the Canucks. Granted, he was the victim of some fluke stuff, but he’s the clear No. 1 goaltender now, and the pressure is on him to play consistently well. He’ll have to be on top of his game tonight.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Plain and simple, they need to win, no matter how it looks. They can’t afford a losing streak at this time of the season. They may be close points-wise, but it’s going to be tough to climb over all those teams since everyone is playing each other.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, Team 1380)
The most disappointing thing to me in regards to Tuesday’s loss was how nonchalant the Blues performed in the third period. At this time of year you can’t afford to allow the opposition to dictate the pace of the game, especially in the third period. The Blues put themselves in bad situations by taking irresponsible penalties and failing to do the little things that matter when you’re trying to protect a lead late in the game.

The Blues will try to give a smarter effort tonight in Nashville. It starts in their own end with goaltender Chris Mason, who failed to come up with the big save when the club needed it in the worst way against the Canucks. It’s crucial the Blues get a lead early to prevent the team from chasing the game.

REED LOW (Former Blue and co-host of “The Low Down” on KFNS)
They need to come out with a good start. Also they need to play with desperation … that’s what made them successful over their last 10 games. The other night the team was watching instead of forcing the play. Goaltending has to be better — they worked hard to get the lead back after a power play goal the other night and you need your goalie to make it happen after something like that. Lastly, they need to play four lines and keep rolling the bench and getting everyone in the game. After a couple periods of that you will wear the other team down because a home team will usually try to get their best players out for a few extra shifts. Stay patient with the game plan and keep it simple.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

THE WORLD OF PETE ROSE: Of all the people I would have expected to hear speak up about Alex Rodriguez and steroids, perhaps Pete Rose would’ve been one of the last. I know steroids and gambling are two different things, but the whole pot-kettle thing bothers me. Both have admitted to breaking the rules. Period.

But Rose, the game’s all-time hits leader with 4,256, had a few things to say to Dayton Daily News’ legendary baseball writer Hal McCoy. Take this for example: “I would have got 5,000 hits if I took steroids.”

Really, Pete? Almost 750 more hits because you were juicing? Wanna bet on it?

But I will give Rose credit for his thoughts on when A-Rod said he juiced because of all the pressure he was under due to his huge contract. Here’s what Rose told McCoy: “Pressure? A lot of us are understanding in these times that pressure is signing a $250 contract, not $250 million.”

That, I couldn’t have said better myself.

ALL ABOARD: According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the Brewers are teaming up with Amtrak to try to make Wrigley Field in Chicago a home away from home — at least for one game. The report states that the first 100 Brewers fans who buy tickets to the Brewers-Cubs Sept. 17 game will get a free, round-trip ride to Chicago on Amtrak. The name of the promotion: Miller Park South. While they are only giving away 100 free train rides, all those fans and 1,500 others who attend the game will be given t-shirts that say, “Miller Park South.”

I say when you send 1,600 Brewers fans into the dregs of the drunken Friendly Confines claiming the Cubs’ home field as their own, the t-shirts might as well say, “Go ahead, kick my #$#.”

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

THIRD JERSEY UNDER SCRUTINY: It was news to this editor to find out this morning that ESPN had done a story about St. Louis Post-Dispatch multimedia journalist Darryl Swint and how renderings for a new Blues third jersey that Swint designed and delivered to the Blues back in 2003 have many similarities to the third jerseys the Blues introduced this season. I offer no opinion or bias on the merits of anyone’s claims in the story, but thought fans might like to see the story and the side-by-side shots. You can form your own opinions.

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HOME RUN HISTORY

As Albert Pujols prepares to begin his ninth season in the major leagues with the St. Louis Cardinals, here’s a look at the players who hit the most home runs through their first 8 seasons, along with how many they hit:

1. Ralph Kiner — 329
2 Albert Pujols — 319
3. Eddie Mathews — 299
4. Adam Dunn — 278
5. Ernie Banks — 269
6. Ted Williams — 265
7. Frank Robinson — 262
8. Frank Thomas — 257
9. Hank Aaron — 253
10. Darryl Strawberry — 252
11 Todd Helton — 251
12. Willie Mays — 250
13. Mickey Mantle — 249
14. Rocky Colavito — 246
15. Joe DiMaggio — 244
16. Albert Belle — 242
17. Alex Rodriguez — 241
18. Mike Piazza — 240
19. Roger Maris — 240
20. Ken Griffey — 238

THE WATERCOOLER

(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: Did the Yankees overspend for CC Sabathia?

RICK HUMMEL
For anybody else, I would say yes. The Yankees, no. With a new ballpark and huge ticket prices (they will be sold out every game), the Yankees have almost unlimited resources. They also haven’t been to the World Series since 2003 and haven’t won it since 2000. And what better way to move the Mets and K-Rod off the back pages than to sign CC?

DERRICK GOOLD
Yes. But when has that ever stopped them? It’s like Atlanta manager Bobby Cox said here Monday: “You’ve got to do what you’ve got to do.” That’s what the Yankees had to do.

BRYAN BURWELL
The Yanks probably did overspend on him, but when you’re basically negotiating against yourself, that usually happens. But here’s the bigger puzzle with the Sabathia deal. Does he really want to be in NY in the first place or is he only going because the money is so overwhelming? By all indications, that extra year at $20 million seems to be a NYC usage tax (he clearly was reluctant to go there and that extra money and length of contract was what it took to get him to sign). And that puts him in a delicate competitive predicament with Yankee fans, who are harsh and overly demanding anyway. It’s no exageration (well, a slight one) to believe that Sabathia will be expected by Yankee fans to produce nothing less than three Cy Youngs, three World Series rings and a couple World Series MVPs. I just hope he has the guts to deal with the ridiculous expectations that come with playing in the city. Not everyone can handle it.

JEFF GORDON
Yes, the Yankees overspent for Sabathia. The franchise can afford to overspend, but that doesn’t make it smart. CC is the ultimate workhorse, but he does NOT bring New York a classic shutdown postseason starter. New York could have purchased a couple of other high-end hurlers for that same price. And imagine what $161 million over seven years would yield through the traditional means of team building. For that kind of money, a franchise could clean up in Latin America and grab one of the Scott Boras pitching studs in each amateur draft (they usually drop to the big spenders). That money could allow a franchise to build the best-ever scouting network and flood its minor-league system with elite instructors.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

MARQUIS JAMMING UP MARQUEE DEAL: According to a report in the San Diego Union-Tribune, former-Cardinal and current-Cubs pitcher Jason Marquis might be part of the holdup in the Cubs getting Jake Peavy from the Padres. Marquis, who has been on the trade block for weeks, “has been the hangup” to getting the Peavy talks moving, the paper reports. The Padres want the Cubs to pay more than half of Marquis’ salary if they take him. Other clubs also are asking for a large discount.

Imagine that, Marquis finally doing something to help the Cardinals.

IT COULD BE WORSE: As Cardinal fans wait … and wait … and wait to see what GM John Mozeliak is able to get done at this week’s winter meetings, just remember that it could be worse. You could be a Brewers fan. Not only did the Brewers lose Sabathia to the Yankees via free agency, but they are likely to see the longtime pitching face of the club, Ben Sheets, walk away soon, too. That’s a heavy hit for any rotation. And the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that the Yankees signing of Sabathia was the ulimate rude awakening for Brewers GM Doug Melvin.

I guess the Brewers got what they wanted out of their short-term “rental” of Sabathia — a playoff appearance. But for that brief postseason appearance the Brewers dealt über-prospect Matt LaPorta (coming to a Major League outfield near you soon) to Cleveland along with three other minor leaguers. On the flipside, as Class A free agents, Sabathia and Sheets will net the Brewers two high picks next June after they’ve both signed with other clubs. So there is that.

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A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

IF A TREE FALLS IN THE FOREST … If the Rams final two home games of the season (vs. Seattle Sunday and San Francisco Dec. 21) are blacked-out on TV because of an abundance of tickets remaining, will anyone notice? I don’t know how anyone can blame fans for not buying tickets. I’ve been to almost every home game this season and with the team often trailing by huge margins by halftime, the environment is miserable. And I’m getting paid to be there.

THE STEEN MACHINE: Folks let me know yesterday that they thought I was a little premature in judging Blues acquisition Alex Steen. Per my expectations, many of you correctly reminded me that Brad Boyes didn’t exactly burn it up upon his arrival with the Blues either. But that’s worked out OK. Then Tom Timmermann does an excellent piece on Steen in this morning’s paper that points out that the kid definitely has skills, but perhaps he just needs time to find his niche with his new team. Taking all of that into account, I’m calling myself out and taking a wait-and-see approach. And if he starts to light the lamp with some regularity at any point this season, feel free to remind me not to be so quick to pass judgment next time.

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STAT OF THE DAY

5.4 — That’s the yards-per-carry through 13 games this season for Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams. Questioned as an every-down back while splitting carries with DeShaun Foster the past two seasons, and still overlooked among the games’s elite runners, Williams has carried the ball 213 times for 1,144 yards and 13 TDs. For good measure, he’s tacked on two TDs receiving also. The scary thing is imagining Williams numbers if his teammate, rookie running back Jonathan Stewart, hadn’t siphoned off 141 carries (to the tune of 5.0 YPC and 8 TDs.)