THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Who wins Saturday’s Arch Rivalry Game between Missouri and Illinois?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Despite losing so many stars and both coordinators, the Tigers have a foundation for success now. But that will be more evident by season’s end than at its start. More-experienced Illini are due for first win over MU in STL since 1896.
Prediction: Illinois 27, Mizzou 21

STU DURANDO
Based on their returning offensive weapons, the Illini should have the advantage against a quarterback making his first collegiate start. But by no means do I discount Blaine Gabbert. I just think it will take him time to get comfortable. Both defenses are re-tooling so there should be plenty of scoring.
Prediction: Illinois 38, Missouri 35

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The Illini have a chance to be a surprise team this season. If they cut down on turnovers, and Juice Williams can be more accurate in connecting with a dazzling array of receivers, this should be one of the best offenses in the nation. The Missouri defense figures to have matchup problems with those Illinois wideouts. The pressure is on Illinois to win this one.
Prediction: Illinois 31, Missouri 23.

TOM TIMMERMANN
If this game was being played in December, I might have a different answer, but at the start of September, I think the Illini has an edge on Mizzou. They have an experienced quarterback, experienced receivers and that was a potent combination against the Tigers last season. Mizzou’s offense isn’t far enough along to throw up the points it did last year, and it remains to be seen if the defense can allow fewer points than it did last year.
Prediction: Illinois 42, Mizzou 35.

DAN O’NEILL
I have one especially compelling reason why I’m picking Missouri to win — because I am a Missouri grad. But honestly, I think Missouri’s defense will be better this season (both hands behind my back with fingers crossed) and Gabbert, still an unknown commodity, will give Illinois fits, mostly because of his running ability. Missouri is getting no attention this preseason and I think Gary Pinkel is poised to produce his finest coaching season.
Prediction: Missouri 27, Illinois 24

RICK HUMMEL
Too much experience for Illini. “Juice” will be on the loose.
Prediction: Illinois 34, Missouri 17.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What are your thoughts about the cancellation of the Missouri-Illinois football game that was played on a neutral site here in St. Louis?

VAHE GREGORIAN
It’s understandable enough in terms of both schools trying to have more home games. But it’s a bummer overall. Football rivalry just kind of starting to get cranked up, attendance up, both programs intriguing. Maybe they’ll resume one of these years, but it will be like starting from scratch.

STU DURANDO
I understand the need to have more control over the schedule and both teams would prefer to have a seventh home game for their fans. Illinois recently completed a $120 million stadium expansion and those who paid for luxury boxes and premium seats want to see an additional home game for their money. Of course that seventh home game could be the Illinois-Missouri series if the schools had opted to play a continuing home-and-home series. But for whatever reasons, they decided against that, probably to add teams they are more likely to beat. I have always viewed Missouri-Illinois as something of a manufactured rivalry and don’t think it will be missed in the long run.

JEFF GORDON
The game in The Ed was a great idea when both programs were scuffling. The major market exposure helped the Tigers and Illini equally. But both schools have moved up in the world, raising expectations. Now both schools must maximize their home schedule. Neither school is thrilled about playing such a dangerous non-conference game on a neutral field. Ending the St. Louis game was totally understandable. This is bad for local fans, but good both schools.

KATHLEEN NELSON
I’m not surprised. The series has history as an on-again, off-again affair. I also think that a home game against a patsy is a safer bet for a victory than is a neutral site game against a tough opponent. The loser — in the most recent years, Illinois — has started the year on the wrong foot. The rivalry is great for generating interest among St. Louis alums, but a sure victory against a I-AA opponent at home makes the season record look better to the bowl committees.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Not to channel Joe Strauss here, but considering the caliber of nonconference opponents Mizzou usually plays, the Illinois game was a breath of fresh air. Now, I’m sure the first four weeks of the football season will be filled with more anonymous teams where the Mizzou starters are relaxing by halftime. I don’t care if Mizzou and Illinois cancel the game; I’d just like to know that if they don’t play each other, they’re at least going to use that open spot to play a decent team. I don’t think having one of your four nonconference games against a good opponent is asking too much. So schedule someone good and all will be well.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: It was reported Tuesday that Missouri’s top football recruit, Sheldon Richardson, did not qualify academically for next season and will attend a junior college in California. Richardson has said he will be back at Mizzou in 2011, however, after a year in California, won’t the entire recruitment process start all over again for Richardson, with teams from that area working him hard while he’s on the West coast?

VAHE GREGORIAN
No question that recruiters will swarm anew to Richardson now that he’s essentially back on the market. And despite him telling the Post-Dispatch that he knows how to say “no,” he’s an outgoing guy who likes attention and engagement and will have a hard time at least not listening — especially if some of the glamour schools like USC enjoy dropping in on him from time-to-time. That said, I do believe he fully intends to go to Missouri, that he values his relationship enough with assistant Cornell Ford that he will feel duty-bound to please him and that he relishes the idea of being a home-state hero. Gut feeling is there will be some anxious moments for MU fans but that he ultimately will come to Mizzou.

STU DURANDO
Richardson is the one who decides if the process starts again. He said that he is firm in his commitment, which should mean that regardless of who contacts him, he will say no thank you and decline further discussion. But although programs around the country will read of what he said, he is sure to get plenty of attention and not just from schools on the West Coast (Illinois running back Daniel Dufrene went to the same JC). Recruiting players who are committed to other schools is far more rampant in college football than basketball, and if a coach thinks Richardson is giving him an opening, he’ll continue the pursuit. Richardson has to decide from the beginning how he is going to respond to future suitors and remain consistent.

JEFF GORDON
Recruiting is a tough business. Until a player actually signs a letter of intent, other coaches will work the kid. Mizzou has worked kids after they made verbal commitments to other schools. All is fair in love and recruiting. And when a player is forced to go JUCO for academic reasons, the sharks will circle again. That’s just the way it is. The Tigers will keep getting players who fall back into the pool for one reason or another, so it should more than even out.

BILL COATS
Sure, he’ll get attention from schools that feel they might have a chance at changing his mind. But Richardson has been pretty firm in his commitment to Mizzou. Bottom line: at this point, Gary Pinkel can only hope that Richardson’s word is good.

TOM TIMMERMANN
Well, if he plays well, other teams will be interested in him. If he doesn’t play well, other schools won’t be interested in him. And in two years, if Mizzou is 4-7, his interest in them won’t be as high as it is today. But Pac-10 schools don’t gobble up JC players. USC has just a few, UCLA has one, Washington has two. So barring a really great season there, Mizzou is probably safe. But they will have to re-recruit him, just so other schools, which aren’t necessarily on the West Coast, don’t make inroads.

KATHLEEN NELSON
If Richardson plays as well as everyone thinks he can play, some school — or several schools — will take a run at him. You’re taking a major leap of faith if you expect a 19- or 20-year-old to honor a commitment when coaches and pro athletes take contracts and promises so lightly.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Missouri seemingly lost half of its starting players to the NFL a few weeks ago. With names like Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, William Moore, Ziggy Hood and others moving on, what are the chances Mizzou can come even close to repeating its success of the past couple seasons? Has coach Gary Pinkel restocked enough for next year’s team to pick up where last year’s team left off?

VAHE GREGORIAN
Mizzou has established a baseline and has plenty of talent, even if a lot of it is unseasoned. But it’s hard to imagine you can replace the best quarterback in school history, two of the most intimidating offensive players in the nation in Maclin and Coffman and the most accurate kicker in NCAA history (Jeff Wolfert) and not sag. I think the defense actually will be improved, but I’d be amazed if the whole package is immediately as good as the last two seasons. That said, if you looked at the Big 12 schedule today, MU probably would be favored in five or six of its eight games. I actually think they can contend for the North crown but will be somewhere between 7-5 and 9-3.

JEFF GORDON
Getting to the high side of .500 and reaching a minor bowl game would be huge accomplishments, all considering. Is there life after Brad Smith and Chase Daniel? That is the multi-million dollar question. The Tigers will be able to run the ball and catch it, but what about the man at the controls? The sample from last season was much too small to judge.

MIKE SMITH
God bless the Tigers mentioned above, but honestly, didn’t that group basically check out last season after the home loss to Okie State and the stampede at Texas?

This season, Mizzou can diversify its offense with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback and undervalued backs Derrick Washington and De’Vion Moore running behind a decent line. There’s no doubting Gabbert’s physical tools, but these issues/questions remain:

1) He’s almost three years removed from spending an entire fall playing competitive football (Daniel’s understudy in 2008; injured most of 2007.)

2) Who will he throw to besides TE Andrew Jones? After Jared Perry and Danario Alexander — both injured this spring — the roster of wideouts is nondescript.

3) Can he lead his teammates? Blaine Gabbert was all about Blaine Gabbert when he played for Parkway West, but perhaps Pinkel has brow-beaten that attitude out of him by now.

Defensively, the Tigers automatically are better because they’re under new management (Eberflus out, Steckel in). Bottom line: a 4-0 nonconference season followed by a 5-3 Big 12 campaign and another minor bowl trip TBA (I mean, Big 12 favorite sons Nebraska and Kansas have to first decide which bowls they want to attend, THEN Mizzou can be accommodated).

TOM TIMMERMANN
There’s no way Mizzou can be as good next year as last year. They lost too much talent, and while the replacements may someday be as good or better, they won’t be next season. But that doesn’t mean Mizzou can’t win the Big 12 North. The league’s talent remains in the South, and Kansas is the competition to win the division and go back to the conference championship game. So by that standard, that Mizzou has a very good chance of being back in the Big 12 final, they will be picking up where they left off. But they’ll probably get thumped by every South Division team they play.

KATHLEEN NELSON
The Tigers have enough players who contributed last year to make another run at the Big 12 North. The offense will feature a veteran running back, Derrick Washington, a pair of wide receivers with big play experience, Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, and the bulk of the offensive line. The defense probably will rely on NT Jaron Baston and linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Luke Lambert. Perhaps the relative inexperience of the squad is a plus. Last year’s defense and departed coordinator Matt Eberflus took heaps of criticism. A blank slate could do these guys good.

Given the inexperience on defense and the first year for QB Blaine Gabbert, fans shouldn’t expect much more than a fight for the division, though.

BILL COATS
The solid recruiting that Pinkel and his staff have accomplished in recent yearS is paying off. Mizzou lost a lot, but it returns a lot, too. The Tigers have enough to be in the hunt for another Big 12 North title.

THE WATERCOOLER
(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: Now that the Cardinals have addressed two areas of need with Trever Miller and Khalil Greene, what do you think their top priority should be heading into the Winter Meetings?

JOE STRAUSS
Nobody asked me (until now), but I believe the need for greater depth in the starting rotation has been the most understated of all the team’s needs to date. Much will depend on the true finding regarding Chris Carpenter’s nerve condition. Many believe it implausible, even given a positive outlook, that the club count on Carpenter’s season-long availability in the same way it banked on his return along with Mark Mulder near last July’s non-waiver trade deadline.

With the possible exception of Mitchell Boggs, there is no ready depth within the minor leagues. Dave Duncan believes Kyle McClellan’s future may be in the rotation. But even so, without another dependable starter on board, the Cardinals dangerously resemble the 2007 bunch that crumbled following Carpenter’s Opening Day exit. Hyperventilating prospect geeks can’t even cite Jaime Garcia and Mike Parisi, since both are rehabbing from surgery. It is more than coincidence that the Cardinals won 205 games in 2004-05 while coming within one out of leading the NL in ERA in consecutive years. It is also no coincidence that they have been less than a .500 team since Mulder’s shoulder concerns became obvious in May 2006.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals’ top priority is to get a second baseman in a market that seems to be loaded with them, either through free agency or the possibility of trade. Orlando Hudson, though injured at the end of the last two seasons, would be at the top of my list.

DERRICK GOOLD
Starting pitching. Can never have enough starting pitching. That is especially true for the Cardinals, who will huddle around Carpenter’s medical reports as if they were opening a Wonka Bar and hoping this one has the Golden Ticket. But the mid-market of starting pitchers the Cardinals are eyeing (think: Andy Pettitte, Randy Wolf, Braden Looper) will be slow to develop and could inch into January. So this week the Cardinals must look for the best way to radically upgrade their roster: a productive second baseman (via trade) or a short-term, sure-thing closer for the ninth inning (read: Kerry Wood).

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’d like to see the Cardinals upgrade at 2B, and I wish the organization would be more aggressive in its search for a starting pitcher. I just don’t see how they can bank on having Carpenter in the rotation; will he be healthy and durable? They need protection for their rotation, and they should reach higher instead of settling for the usual low-hanging fruit.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

BRING ON THE BABY BLUES: T.J. Oshie is expected to return to the ice tonight vs. Calgary after missing 13 games with a high-ankle sprain. Oshie practiced Thursday on a line with Patrik Berglund and David Perron. It should be fun to watch the Baby Blues on a line together as we get a glimpse of the future. Blues beat writer Jeremy Rutherford did me the favor this morning of asking the three what they think about playing on a line together. Here’s what they had to say:

PERRON: “It’s going to be fun. We all like to cycle the puck. When I’m in the defensive zone and the other team is cycling the puck, it’s pretty hard to cover all the guys at once. As soon as you beat one guy, that means there’s something open. For me, when I cycle the puck and I beat a guy, I’m looking right away to the slots to see if one of those guys are open. I feel that Bergy and Oshie think the same way for sure. I think all the guys like to cycle the puck, but maybe it’s just some chemistry that we have because we’re young.”

OSHIE: “I’m very excited. It’s always fun playing with those guys. We’ve got some chemistry going, just from development camps and things like that, playing together. I think we complement each other well. So hopefully if we’re all moving our feet and we’re all working hard, I think we’ll be fine out there. We all three like to cycle and we all three have offensive minds to make plays, but I think we’re pretty smart on the defensive side of the puck. I think it’s a good mixture. Hopefully Bergy and Perry will be putting the puck in the net tonight.”

BERGLUND: “I think it’s going to be good. We’re around the same age, and I think it’s kind of easier to understand each other. I think like Perry and Oshie said, we like to cycle the puck and create a lot of speed and bring the puck to the net. It will be an energy line that keeps the puck in the offensive zone. . . . We are three players who have hockey sense. It’s easy to play around guys who have that because they know what they have to do all the time.”

MIZZOU HAS NO CHANCE: That’s what columnist Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman implies today — barring a monumental upset of course. Tramel reports that Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is the king of the Big 12 title game and he doesn’t see that changing tomorrow. Based on recent performances it might be hard to argue with him … so should Mizzou not bother even showing up at Arrowhead? Upsets are part of the game and Mizzou players and fans know that up-close following last week’s loss to Kansas. I guess that’s why they play the games, no?

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A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

HOW DOES THIS HAPPEN: I see a lot sports writers complaining about the chaotic formula of the BCS and how flawed that system is, but perhaps a few of these guys need to take a look in the mirror. How can Texas quarterback Colt McCoy be good enough to be voted The Associated Press’ Big 12 offensive player of the year, yet, according to AP voters, not be the best QB in the Big 12? That honor went to Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford.

Like my dad is fond of saying, “I may not be the smartest guy in the world, but if I had a dollar for everyone that was dumber than me I’d be a rich man.”

IT’S GOOD TO HAVE A BACKUP PLAN … AND A FAT WALLET: According to the New York Daily News, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has begun talks with agent Scott Boras about free agent starting pitcher Derek Lowe. This while Cashman also plans to meet with CC Sabathia this weekend in hopes of getting the pitcher signed before the winter meetings begin. The Yankees have reportedly offered Sabathia, this year’s biggest free agent pitching jewel, a deal somewhere in the six-year, $140 million range.

I tire of hearing all the crying and big market/small market excuses from teams about not having the money to compete. This is the big leagues … either you can compete or you can’t. And you can disparage the Yankees all you want for always trying to “buy their championships.” But if any fans of any team honestly can tell me they wouldn’t want their team to do the same, I contend those fans are not being honest with themselves.

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STAT OF THE DAY

5,160 – Yards passing Saints quarterback Drew Brees is on pace for right now. That would be a new single-season league high. Dan Marino currently holds the record with 5,084 yards in 1984. Think the 5-8 Chargers ever regret letting Brees go?