THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Blues are in Phoenix tonight to play a game that is hugely important to this team’s playoff hopes. What are the keys to success for the Blues tonight?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
1. Relax: There’s a lot on the line, but the Blues have shown this season that when they’re playing composed, they can be really good.

2. Bury your chances: The Blues had 26 shots on goal Saturday in Dallas, but misfired on 23 more shots. It’s been a problem all season. If you don’t put the puck on net, you can’t score. And if the Blues fail to build on leads, as they did in Dallas, it will come back to bite them.

3. Hope for a good game from Chris Mason: Mason was not at his best Saturday in Dallas, and while there were plenty of other problems that night, goaltending was a big issue. Mason has been spectacular since taking over the No. 1 job, and the Blues need him to play that way for three more games to have a chance at the postseason.

DAN O’NEILL
The No. 1 key is for Chris Mason to be their best player. Mason was not especially sharp in Dallas, which was the reason the Blues got one point instead of two. In addition, the Blues’ power play has to be effective and it would help if shooters hit the net once in a while. The team missed the net almost as often as they hit in Dallas.

JEFF GORDON
Keep the puck in the offensive zone! Chris Mason has looked more human in goal and the makeshift Blues defense has made some huge mistakes. By sustaining offensive pressure, the Blues will get a chance to build a lead, earn power plays and exploit their man advantage. They need to take charge in this game and get the Coyotes chasing them around. This game means everything to the Blues and nothing to Phoenix. So the Blues must dictate play from the first shift on.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, KFNS)
It may sound too simple but it my opinion it comes down to playing hard. Sometimes the best and most effective game is a simple one.

If the Blues don’t get their bodies involved, they will be in trouble. It costs them an extra point in Dallas and they can’t afford not to be involved in the game physically tonight. The Blues must play physical and finish checks. They need to tighten up their game defensively as well — St. Louis was way too sloppy in their own end last Saturday and that’s not a recipe for success especially on the road.

Chris Mason may not have stood on his head against Dallas but he wasn’t the reason they lost. He gave the Blues a chance to win and I expect him to do the same against Phoenix. His team didn’t give him much help in front of him.

The Blues better not overlook this Coyotes team, which brings a lot of skill to the table and plays very hard. They’ve beaten some good teams at home recently, including a decisive victory over Vancouver, and they are hardly a pushover. This team was in the playoffs just a few months ago before going on a horrific slide. They have a very strong goaltender who has the ability to make 50 saves on a given night when he’s on. It will certainly help if the Blues can hit the net tonight after shooting either high or wide more than 20 times in their previous game.

The bottom line is you don’t make it into the playoffs by losing to the Phoenix Coyotes in a must-win situation.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Desperation and concentration.

The Blues played like a desperate team in Detroit but somehow didn’t in Dallas, where the Stars were the ones with the extra jump in their step. The Blues have to be 1-point better than Nashville over the final three games to get in the playoffs so I don’t think motivation should be a problem.

The team, as a whole, needs to concentrate a little more than they did in Dallas as well. Too many excellent scoring opportunities given up to a team that was already all but out of the playoffs. Gotta play it a little tighter in the defensive zone starting tonight too — they’ve allowed 12 goals in the last three games.

The Blues have Phoenix tonight, Columbus Friday and Colorado Sunday. Nashville has Chicago tonight, Detroit Thursday and Minnesota on Friday to close out their season. If the Blues can just play their game three more times they should get in.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: After flat-lining Wednesday against the Blackhawks, the St. Louis Blues bounced back with a huge 5-4 win over the Wings in Detroit last night to move into the eighth and final playoff spot. Though they play three out of their last four on the road, only Columbus (whom the Blues play at home) is a playoff-caliber team. Given their opponents and their entire surge since the calendar hit 2009, I say the Blues make the playoffs. What say you?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
Yes, the Blues will make the playoffs. With four games left in the regular season, they control their own destiny in the eighth spot. Win all four and you’re in, or go 3-1 and you’re more than likely in.

It comes down to three teams — Anaheim, the Blues and Nashville — fighting for the 7th and 8th spots in the West. Of those three, Nashville has a game in-hand, but that game is tonight in Chicago. The Blues can tell you that’s no guarantee.

The Blues appear to have the most favorable schedule among the three. A look at the schedules:

• Anaheim: at San Jose, vs. San Jose, vs. Dallas, at Phoenix . . . 7-6-1 vs. remaining opponents
• Blues: at Dallas, at Phoenix, vs. Columbus, at Colorado . . . 12-2 vs. remaining opponents
• Nashville: at Chicago, vs. Columbus, vs. Chicago, at Detroit, at Minnesota . . . 10-6-1 against remaining opponents

Three of the Blues’ opponents — Dallas, Phoenix and Colorado — are out of the playoff picture. And the Blues are coming off back-to-back wins over Columbus. Nothing is certain, but for the first time in several months, the Blues aren’t chasing anybody and they will decide if they make the playoffs.

And the way things are shaping up, the Blues will be playing the San Jose Sharks in the first round. Payback will be on the minds of Blues’ fans, who remember what happened in 2000 when the eighth-seeded Sharks upset the top-seeded Blues, winning the series 4-3.

Time for a role reversal.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’ll say, “Yes,” and put them in. The Blues are in good shape. If they win all four remaining games, no one will stop them. But for purposes of discussion, suppose the Blues slip? Then it comes down to what the other contenders do. It also comes down to whether the Blues finish seventh or eighth.
Anaheim (currently 7th), has a home-and-home with San Jose, the top team in the Western Conference. That’s a big test, but San Jose has virtually locked up the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, and so you have to wonder about the motivation level. If the Ducks handle San Jose, then they’ll play a couple of faded horses in Dallas and Phoenix.

Nashville (9th) has a game in hand over the Blues, so that’s dangerous from the Blues’ standpoint — and that’s why tonight’s Nashville @ Chicago game is so big. The Blues need the Blackhawks to take that one. If Nashville wins at Chicago, they leap the Blues and go into 8th place, and that will cause some anxiety in the STL hockey community. But overall, Nashville has a tougher schedule than does St. Louis, with four games against playoff-bound teams (two with Chicago, one each with Columbus and Detroit).

Minnesota (10th place) is 4 points behind the Blues and the Wild also has a game in hand, so you can’t count them out.

Another question: is 6th place totally out of the question?

TOM TIMMERMANN
My original projection was that the Blues would stagger to the final four games and then win out, and make the playoffs, so I think they’ll do quite well here at the end. There are potential problems the next two games — first following up a big win and then playing the final game of a long road trip — but this team looks to have gotten over those problems. The toughest team still to play is at home and may have its playoff spot locked up by then, and then there’s the big finish in Colorado for the Blues.

My original thought was that the Blues would be facing four straight do-or-die games. Now, that may not be the case, and they actually may be able to absorb one loss. Go 3-1 in this stretch, and I think the season is another two weeks longer.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I said they’d make the playoffs during the Blues Post-Game Show after the loss to Chicago, so there’s no way I’ll change my opinion now. The win against Detroit puts them in outstanding position.

While the Blues finish their season playing 3 out of 4 against teams who are out of the playoff picture, the Ducks play San Jose on back-to-back nights before facing Dallas and Phoenix, and Nashville plays Chicago twice, Columbus, Detroit and Minnesota.

I’m no longer concerned about Edmonton or Minnesota — being 4-points back with 4-5 games is a tough hill to climb — but I do think Anaheim is going to finish strong, capturing the 7th spot.

It looks like this comes down to the Blues and Predators for the final spot in the West and I like the Blues there. Even though they have three road games, they’re all against teams the Blues should beat.

The Preds face a Chicago team battling for home ice advantage in the first round; the Blue Jackets, who appear to be pretty solid in the 6th spot; a Red Wings team trying to get itself straightened out before the playoffs; and, a Minnesota team that may or may not be eliminated from the hunt when the two meet. Plus the Blues hold the tiebreaker over Nashville.

The Blues finish with 89-90 points, winning the 8th playoff spot and the right to face the San Jose Sharks in the 1st round.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, KFNS)
The best part for the Blues moving forward is that they control there own destiny. This is not a question that requires deep thought and statistical analysis. I do think the Blues will get in. They head into the final week of the season with a ton of confidence, as do the Anaheim Ducks and the Nashville Predators. Two of these three teams get in.

Sorry, Predators fans.

The Blues will probably need to win three of the remaining four to get there. By now most fans are aware of the opponents both Anaheim and Nashville will face from here on out. With the Ducks looking at back-to-back games against San Jose and Nashville hitting the road to battle Chicago and Detroit, you can make the case the Blues have the more favorable schedule moving forward.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: With 10 games to go, how many total points do you think the Blues need to secure the eighth and final playoff spot; and assuming they were to do so, where do you see the points coming from on the remaining schedule?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
The 11th-place Blues will need at least 90 points to make the playoffs. That’s based on the premise that one of the three teams ahead of them in the West — No. 8 Nashville, No. 9 Anaheim, or No. 10 Minnesota — will win seven of its last 10 games and reach the 90-point plateau. (Teams 6-13 in the West have each played 72 games, so no one has any games in hand as of today). So with 75 points and needing 90, the Blues must earn 15 of the remaining 20 points on the schedule to give themselves a chance. You can say the Blues need to go 8-2, 7-2-1, 6-1-3 . . . whichever way, they need 15 points.

Assuming the Blues pick up those 15 points, let’s forecast where they’ll come from:
Tonight vs. Los Angeles: 2 points
Thursday vs. Vancouver: 1 point
Saturday vs. Columbus: 2 points
Sunday AT Columbus: 1 point
April 1 AT Chicago: 1 point
April 2 AT Detroit: 0 points
April 4 AT Dallas: 2 points
April 7 AT Phoenix: 2 points
April 10 vs. Columbus: 2 points
April 12 AT Colorado: 2 points

DAN O’NEILL
I think the Blues may need at least 15 points in their last 10 games to secure a playoff spot, beginning with a home game against Los Angeles tonight. They have a three-game stretch that will be especially difficult — at Columbus March 29, at Chicago April 1 and at Detroit April 2. There also is a game at Dallas on April 4 to deal with.

It is reasonable to suggest they can win the other six games on the schedule, so they have to find a way to get three points out of those four games, be it a win and an overtime loss, or even three overtime losses. Pivotal to the cause will be beating Vancouver at home on Thursday and beating Columbus at home April 10.

The challenge is mighty for a young team that has to be growing weary of playing for its life, night in and night out. But, regardless of the outcome, it beats the heck out of last year’s lead balloon finish.

TOM TIMMERMANN
The rule of thumb is you need 90 points to make the playoffs, but this year should be an exception and 87 or 88 should do it in the West. So the Blues need to get 12 points from their final 10 games and the way the schedule shakes out, I’m envisioning a mad dash to the finish. They can get four points from their next three games, with LA, Vancouver and Colorado, and then it looks like three straight losses: at Columbus, at Chicago, at Detroit. That will leave them at death’s door, but the schedule shapes up with four winnable games down the stretch, all of which they will likely have to win: at Dallas, at Phoenix, Columbus and at Colorado. I’d only rate it about a 40 percent chance, and they can’t afford to have Nashville, Anaheim or Minnesota get hot. It’s tough that the Blues don’t play any of those teams.

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, Team 1380)
I look at the remaining games as nothing more than a ten-game season. It’s a ten-game race with the best team advancing to the playoffs. After each game the Blues will assess their health and move on to the next opponent. Blues management has been scoreboard watching all season long and you know their eyes will be all over the Western conference throughout the final ten games.

This is the real March Madness.

The problem is Nashville already has a two-point cushion on the Blues and leads Minnesota and Anaheim by a single point. Right off the bat I am going to eliminate the Minnesota Wild. They, along with the Blues, have the toughest schedule of the teams fighting to get in. Like the Blues they play four home and six away but they are staring at a four-game road trip that begins tonight in New York and ends in Western Canada. They will also visit Detroit in the first week of April.

Let’s assume Nashville wins only half of their remaining games and loses one of their five in overtime or a shootout. That would mean the Predators would collect at least 11 more points the rest of the way. Under this scenario the Blues would need to collect at least 13 points over the next ten games to tie the Predators, where the Blues hold the tie-breaker. Nashville does have head-to-head meetings with Anaheim and Minnesota remaining.

Anaheim is also looking at four home games vs. six on the road with head-to-head meetings with Nashville and Dallas. They still need to go to Vancouver and will battle San Jose in back-to-back games. Not an easy road for Anaheim either.

I see the Blues finishing with 89 points. It may not be enough but you never know. How do they do it? They need a minimum of five points on this upcoming three-game stretch. I have them beating LA and Columbus but losing in a shootout or O.T. vs. the Canucks this Thursday. The five-game road swing will ultimately determine their fate. To be honest. I don’t usually go through the schedule and say here is who they’ll beat and here is who they’ll lose to, but for the sake of this blog entry here are my predictions.

I predict St. Louis earns a single point in Columbus this Sunday, beating Chicago, losing to Detroit, losing to Dallas, and beating Phoenix. The club will return home to defeat the Blue Jackets and then close out the regular season in Colorado with a victory giving the Blues 89 points on the year.
I’m not convinced a 6-2-2 record over the final ten will do it but it most certainly could. It will at least keep the season interesting and entertaining which is more than what Blues fans expected when the club was pretty much buried just a few short months ago. Enjoy!

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The short version: The Blues just need to be one game better than the three teams right ahead of them the rest of the way if they’re going to get the 8th seed. If all three teams ahead of the Blues play the final 10 games at the same pace they played the first 72, then Nashville will finish with 88 points and both Anaheim and Minnesota will finish with 87. That means the Blues will probably need at least 13 points to get in. The Blues win the tiebreaker against Nashville because they won the season series.

If they do get that 8th spot I think it will have been the result of getting 6 points for beating the Kings, Coyotes and Avalanche, managing 3 points in their three remaining games against the Blue Jackets and then finding 4 more points somehow in their games against the Canucks, Blackhawks, Red Wings and Stars.

The Blues are 16-8-6 in their last 30 games and even at that torrid pace (which would be good for 100-points over 82 games) they’d finish 5-3-2 in their last 10, netting 12 points. As good as they’ve been the past two months they need to be just a little bit better here at the finish line. Or they need to get some help.