THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Starting pitcher Chris Carpenter so far has had no setbacks in camp. However, given his injury history, what would realistically constitute a successful season for Carpenter in 2009?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals’ lack of depth does not allow for grading on a curve. (Mortensen and Todd are projected as major league relievers; Walters and Ottavino are projected for the rotation but not ready, despite the buzz created by some hyperventilating early reports; Boggs is behind due to shoulder stiffness that followed him into camp. The club does not promote Brad Thompson as an alternative.) Anything less than 28 starts by Carpenter represents a serious complication to the season.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’d say about 25 starts. If the Cardinals have to take a conservative approach and back him off a couple of times this season, they can live with that. He’ll make a positive impact. Am I confident that Carpenter will hold up? Not really. His injury history is troubling and he isn’t getting any younger.

DERRICK GOOLD
Nothing short of 25 starts. Anything less could leave the Cardinals exposed. Anything more than 30 starts from a healthy and vintage Carpenter and the Cardinals have to be considered contenders. The current roster isn’t braced for an on-again, off-again Carpenter.

BRYAN BURWELL
The most realistic expectation for Chris Carpenter is to play a full season injury-free. If he makes all his starts, that means he will be the old Chris Carpenter and that makes him a successful 15-plus victory starter. I just want to see him stay healthy and make all his starts, it’s as simple as that.

JEFF GORDON
If Chris Carpenter can win 15 games and still be reasonably strong in October, Cards fans should throw a party. He is coming back from serious injuries. He is trying to rebuild his stamina. His body is pretty fresh after a year of relative inactivity, but he also is working to regain his long-haul endurance. Even if his arm and shoulder remain injury-free, Carpenter can expect to hit a couple of walls this season while trying to pitch every fifth day. He must manage his body very carefully.

RICK HUMMEL
Thirty starts. If he gets that many, which many would presume a longshot, the wins will take care of themselves. Say 15.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

SPLITSVILLE IN INDY? Football can be a cold and cruel game. Players sacrifice their bodies to compete year after year, yet there is very little security other than signing bonuses and yearly salaries. Long-term contracts in the NFL? Meaningless. A player can be cut tomorrow (or today) and that six-year deal he signed three years ago is worth nothing more than what his agent was able to secure in “guaranteed” money — usually just a fraction of the overall deal.

Courtesy of the Indianapolis Star, we hear today of a future Hall of Famer who likely is coming to an untimely end with the only franchise he’s ever known. Unless Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay can convince Marvin Harrision in a sitdown today to restructure his contract, it looks like the Peyton Manning-to-Harrison connection will be lost forever. Even though he’ll be 37 in August, it’s got to be hard on Harrison’s pride. Here’s a guy who is an eight-time Pro Bowler who ranks second in NFL history with 1,102 receptions, fourth with 14,580 receiving yards and fifth with 128 receiving touchdowns.

Unfortunately, Harrison is coming off his two least-productive seasons … age may be catching up with him. It’s just tough to watch one of the game’s best be put out to pasture (or just be sent away to another team.) But it’s nothing new to St. Louisans after watching Isaac Bruce get unceremoniously released last year, only to resurface in San Francisco. And it looks now like Torry Holt could be next.

It just shouldn’t happen with these guys who have been the faces of their franchise. Jerry Rice should have never suited up for anyone but the Niners. Bruce the same with the Rams and Harrison the same with the Colts. It’s just a shame the players and teams can’t come up with a way to make it end in a classy way. Even with a salary cap, it seems to me reasonable folks could look at it reasonably and weigh a player’s and a franchise’s legacies against the almighty dollar and come up with something in the middle. But that’s probably just naive on my part, unfortunately.

HE’S BACK: The golfing world is getting giddy over Tiger Woods return to play tomorrow in the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship. One ESPN report this morning estimates more than 100 media members were up early this morning to watch the world’s No. 1 golfer launch his first tee shot in his first practice round. And that doesn’t even take into account the number of spectators that began tracking Tiger from the first hole. Pretty amazing.

Woods, who has been out of action since he defeated Rocco Mediate in a playoff at last June’s U.S. Open — while playing on a knee with torn ligaments — reportedly missed only one fairway on the front nine. This weekend will prove to be just the latest in Tiger’s coronation march to becoming known as the greatest golfer to ever play the game. Stay tuned.

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STAT OF THE DAY

52 years, 11 days — The age of the oldest NHL player in history. His name? Gordie Howe. Incredibly, Howe played all 80 games of the 1979-80 schedule for the NHL’s Hartford Whalers at the age of 51, turning 52 just before the season’s end and then skating in three playoff matches. Howe’s career spanned 32 pro seasons and 2,421 NHL and WHA games. (Source: “Hockey’s Top 100: The Game’s Greatest Records”)

MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

GAUGING THE MARKET: As many in Cardinals National have been screeching about the team’s relative inactivity in the free agent market this offseason, others have started to voice a dissenting viewpoint, pointing out there are still many good free agents out there that may be scooped up later at cheaper prices.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the market for free agents is shaping up in the dissenters’ favor. In a blog today, Olney says: “It is evident that a lot of veteran players are coming to grips with the reality that there isn’t a lot of cash available for the middle class of players this winter. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe fared well, but the dropoff, after that, gets steeper by the day.” He cites former Cardinal David Eckstein as the latest example. Eckstein earned $4.5 million with the Blue Jays last season, but just Thursday signed an $850,000 contract to play for the Padres this season.

This is not a free pass for the Cardinals to sit on their wallets, but perhaps general manager John Mozeliak has a much better read on this than the average fan. Afterall, he is being paid to be a big league GM.

And in case you missed it, Derrick Goold put together a complete lineup of all-stars that are now available on the free agent market. Take a look at his team in the Birdland Blog and convince me there’s not still plenty of options available. With no one clammering to snatch up these guys now, why not wait awhile until the clearance sale begins?

ON THE OTHER HAND: The Chicago Cubs apparently are not subscribing to the wait-and-see approach in free agency. And while the Cards are working on developing homegrown talent, the Cubs seem to be going in the other direction. In fact, the Chicago Sun Times reported today that, “On Opening Day 2009, only shortstop Ryan Theriot and catcher Geovany Soto figure to be true homegrown players in the Cubs’ starting lineup. That’s not a bad thing, either. The Cubs are spending money the way a big-market team should be, sprinkling in a few of their own along the way.”

One of those that won’t be sprinkled in is former super-prospect Felix Pie. The Cubs have loaded up in the outfield and it looks like this once-can’t-miss prospect will be shipped out.

ASK HIM YOURSELF: You can ask Mozeliak about how this team is shaping up and why he’s doing things the way he is next week when we host a live chat with the Cardinals general manager. Check in with him at 1 p.m. next Wednesday at STLtoday.com.

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THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Do you think the Cardinals will top 3 million in attendance this summer?

JOE STRAUSS
While the economic angst is very appropriate, I believe the Cardinals will continue to receive strong support. I do think the economic climate makes them more vulnerable to a dramatic loss of walk-up sales should the team tank. Barring a meltdown season, I place the attendance over/under at 3.25 million.

DERRICK GOOLD
Selling 3 million tickets is different than drawing 3 million fans. I imagine the Cardinals will clear 3 million in tickets sales for the 11th time in 12 years, and they probably will inch past their budget-target of 3.2 million, even in this wicked economy. But the turnstile will have a different view. For the first time since the opening of the ballpark all of those tough sells — those Tuesday nights vs. Pittsburgh, for example — will really look the part. Empty seats. Empty boxes. No lines for garlic fries and red licorice. The same volunteers each night for the fifth-inning dance off. While the All-Star Game is a heck of an insurance policy for ticket sales, it won’t put red-clad butts in those red-painted seats when August comes unless the team is worth watching.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll make three million if they start fast. If they’re not contending or interesting in April and early May, it won’t happen.

JEFF GORDON
Despite the terrible economy, I believe the Cards can still draw 3 million if they contend. And I believe they will contend in ’09, despite all the current naysaying. This team may have to do some ticket discounting on the fly, as the Blues have, but the team should get that number. It helps that the Rams have tanked and the Blues are struggling, too. More than ever, this is Cardinal Nation. Fans will quit a number of vices before they get to baseball.

TOM TIMMERMANN
I don’t think so. Even if the team was championship worthy, I think it would be a tough sell this summer. People are going to pull a DeWitt and play it close to the vest with their money. They’ll sit back, pop open a beer and listen to Dan and Al. Or Mike and John. Or read Joe and Derrick and Rick, though hopefully not drinking a beer over the morning paper.

MIKE SMITH
Signs of the times: The Smith family probably will have to dump its annual $5,500 contribution to DeWitt Care for two seats out in left field. And fan grousing seems to be at an unprecedented level for the 29 years I’ve worked in the P-D sports department. Still … if the Cards find a second baseman who at least looks like he wants to be on the field, then put their best lineup out there and ACTUALLY LEAVE IT OUT THERE more than one or two days a week (“Leading off and playing left field, Joe Thurston!”), you’ve got the makings of a season that could attract 3 million fans.

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THINGS TO PONDER

BREAKING UP IS HARD TO DO: USC coach Pete Carroll got blistered today by L.A. Times columnist Bill Plaschke for how he’s handled the news that QB Mark Sanchez will enter the NFL draft early. Sanchez has already received his bachelor’s degree, and even though he has one year of eligibility remaining, the fact that he is ranked among the 10 best players in this year’s draft made the lure of the NFL just too much. Plaschke says Carroll handled Sanchez’s decision “with all the decorum of a jilted lover.”

Is it about the kid or is it about winning, Pete?

OK, THIS IS ONLY A JOKE: It’s a well-known fact that former NFL quarterback Archie Manning sired the last two Super Bowl winning QBs — Peyton and Eli Manning. But according to the satirical magazine The Onion, Archie may not yet be out of the running for a third consecutive Super Bowl in his family, even though Peyton’s Colts and Eli’s Giants have been eliminated from the playoffs. “Donovan McNabb Is Also My Son,” reads the headline. Check it out.

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NOW THAT’S SAYING SOMETHING

“During my 18 years I came to bat almost 10,000 times. I struck out about 1,700 times and walked maybe 1,800 times. You figure a ballplayer will average about 500 at bats a season. That means I played seven years without ever hitting the ball.”
— Mickey Mantle

THE WATERCOOLER
(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: Does Mizzou stand any chance against Oklahoma in this Saturday’s Big 12 title game? Why or why not? And how about a final score?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Mizzou is facing a long night at Arrowhead. No chance. OU is highly motivated to advance to the national championship game. And on top of that, coach Bob Stoops and the Sooners will want to shut up critics who insist that Texas should be in this game instead. On the Mizzou side, Gary Pinkel has never beaten a team of Oklahoma’s caliber, and the Tigers are hopeless on defense. At least the parking lots will empty early. Final score: Oklahoma 62, Missouri 28.

BRYAN BURWELL
Of course they have a chance. It’s a slim one because the Sooners are playing as good as any team in the country right now, and Mizzou historically does not do well against OU’s bigger and more physical players. But under Bob Stoops, OU does have a habit of losing at least one big game that they shouldn’t, so maybe this is that one. Final score: Oklahoma 61, Mizzou 35.

JOE STRAUSS
Mizzou has an outstanding chance if Jeremy Maclin’s hip heals, Chase Daniel finds a cure for happy feet against the Sooner defensive front, the Tiger special teams go crazy, Coach P. doesn’t leave timeouts on the clock, Sam Bradford can’t hold the ball and Benny Hinn lays hands on the secondary. Oklahoma is good enough to compete in the SEC, maybe even beat Alabama (but not Florida). It’s going to take more than a few “nifty ball plays” for the Tigers to avoid tumbling from the Top 25. In a closer than expected outcome: Sooners 41, El Tigres 27. Remember the Alamo!!!

JIM THOMAS
When I watch the Mizzou defense, I feel like I’m watching the Rams. Namely, blitzes that don’t get there and lots of blown coverages in the secondary, complete with defensive backs pointing aimlessly into space, wondering what happened. Can’t see Mizzou hanging with this bunch. Final score: Oklahoma 52, Mizzou 24.

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MIDDAY HEADLINES AND QUESTIONS TO PONDER

PLAX SURRENDERS: New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress surrendered to police in Manhattan today to face a charge of handgun possession. Burress turned himself in three days after a gun he was allegedly carrying discharged and wounded him in the leg while he was at a New York nightclub. According to the New York Times Web site, Burress didn’t have a license to carry a gun in New York or New Jersey, where he lives. New York state law carries a sentence of up to 15 years for anyone convicted of carrying a weapon without a permit if it’s determined the person was going to use the weapon to harm someone, and up to seven years if intent to use can’t be proved. (More on Plax below)

MORE MASON TO COME? As reported by Jeremy Rutherford in today’s Post-Dispatch, Blues goalie Chris Mason has allowed just four goals on 134 shots in his past four games, lowering his goals-against average to 2.29 from 3.59 and improving his save percentage to .928 from .878. Against Atlanta on Sunday, he surrendered two goals on 30 shots, perhaps making a case to be the regular starter. Blues management and coaches were not happy with comments regular starter Manny Legace made after Saturday’s 4-2 loss to Edmonton. “I need some help out there,” Legace said. (Now I know the defense hasn’t played great of late, but I’m thinking a goalie needs to be worried more about what’s getting behind him than what’s going on in front of him.)

FAN FOR LIFE, AND DEATH: According to the Associated Press, lifelong Red Sox fans can now take their love of the team to the next level — eternity. A Massachusetts funeral home recently took delivery of the first Red Sox casket, which features the team logo on the exterior as well as the inside. Bob Biggins, co-director of Magoun-Biggins Funeral Home in Rockland, told The Boston Globe that families in mourning often want their loved ones buried with favorite items. In the past that’s included Red Sox paraphernalia; the casket takes it to the next step. (How long until the Yankees offer a similar casket with the words “Boston sucks even here” on it in an effort to continue taunting Bosox fans on the Other Side.)

IRISH WAKE: Can anyone explain to me what the heck has happened at Notre Dame? How does a school with that much history and tradition finds itself a mediocre-at-best program? Charlie Weis has seven years remaining on a 10-year contract and it’s looking like the ax could fall on him any day. Bob Davie obviously wasn’t the guy to follow Lou Holtz. Ty Willingham did alright but got chased quickly from South Bend. Are there any logical reasons this school can no longer recruit like it once did? And is there a high-profile, successful coach out there that would come to a school where so much is demanded from the football program and so much needs to be done to get them on course? I’m throwing this one to the masses because all the experts I listen to sure don’t seem to have the answers.

ALL HAIL THE CHIEFS: Rams fans should be elated with the Kansas City Chiefs victory on Sunday. That brings the Chiefs record even with the Rams at 2-10 — for those keeping track for 2009 draft purposes. Better yet, the Chiefs are showing signs of improvement, so the Rams may yet move ahead of them in the draft order. Since the Rams still go head-to-head with the 2-10 Seahawks, it’s a toss-up who wins that draft battle. I think it’s safe to say the 0-12 Lions have secured the No. 1 pick (with Matt Millen gone, any chance they still take another WR?). And at 1-10-1 and showing no pulse, the Bengals would have to be the frontrunner for the second pick. So the Rams could be looking at anywhere from picks 3 through 6. If they do as well at next year’s draft as they did with Chris Long at No. 2 last year, perhaps there is a ray of light.

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SOME THINGS I THINK I THINK

ANQUAN’S THE MAN: There are players who want to tell you how good they are (think T.O., Ocho Stinko), and then there are players who just show you how good they are. One that clearly falls into the Show Me category is Arizona WR Anquan Boldin.

Boldin, you may recall, showed up at training camp this year and lashed out at the club for failing to follow through on what he said was a promise for a new deal. (Notice though, that he SHOWED UP at camp.) No new deal was forthcoming. Boldin, one of the league’s most consistent receivers in recent years, didn’t sulk like many of today’s athletes are apt to do, vowing instead that his unhappiness with his contract wouldn’t affect his play.

And you know what? It hasn’t. Through this weekend’s games Boldin leads all WRs in the NFL with 11 touchdown receptions (his more heralded teammate Larry Fitzgerald is tied for second with four other receivers at eight), he ranks fourth in receptions at 78 and ranks seventh in total receiving yards at 942.

Oh, did I forget to mention that Boldin is doing his job weekly with eight plates in his face and wiring in his jaw. Boldin missed two and half weeks after he suffered a fractured sinus and other facial injuries following a fierce hit by the New York Jets’ Eric Smith on Sept. 28 — a hit that cost Smith a $50,000 fine and a one-game suspension. Boldin underwent surgery, with doctors inserting eight plates to repair his face and wiring to align his bite — yet he has still found a way to play.

“I’m still in awe of what he does on a weekly basis, and what he’s done since he’s come back from that injury,” quarterback Kurt Warner said. “Just a special individual.” I couldn’t agree more, Kurt.

Teams can come up with marketing campaigns like “Bring It” all they want — and every club in every league does it — but I contend that if you had more players that “bring it” with the heart and skill that Boldin does week in and week out, perhaps you’d put fannies in the seats without the catchy slogans. Boldin should provide gut-check fodder for every player in the NFL.

If I could have one WR to build a team around, Boldin would be the man. You got somebody better? Make your case.

POOR PLAX: If someone were seriously injured after an incident like this, I wouldn’t touch it. But since Burress apparently walked into court Monday without as much as a limp, according to reports, I can’t help myself. It’s easy to become immune to news about athletes smacking women around or spitting in their faces at nightclubs, or athletes involved in shootings that leave people paralyzed, or even athletes convicted of murder. It’s all happened in recent years, some times repeatedly. So I guess the only thing I can say about the alleged Plax shooting is this: At least he hurt no one but himself … perhaps that kind of self-policing can be the best thing for sports’ bad boys.

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STAT OF THE DAY

GUESS THAT QUARTERBACK: A former Pro Bowler put up these numbers yesterday — 15 of 21 passing for 125 yards, two interceptions, and zero TDs. No, it’s not Marc Bulger. Those are the stats of once-mighty Indianapolis Colts’ quarterback Peyton Manning. RB Joseph Addai can’t stay healthy (sound familiar?) and WR Marvin Harrison is getting old (sound familiar?) And in the wake of that, Manning is starting to look rather ordinary.