THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: While so much of the free-agent focus for the Cardinals seems to be on Matt Holliday or a replacement for him in left field, what is another part of this team where help is needed and that fans may be overlooking?

JOE STRAUSS
There is an obvious need to replace what Joel Pineiro represented this year. The Cardinals were a pitching-dominant team for much of this season, so much so that their offensive deficiencies were masked until September’s fade. Should Holliday go elsewhere, the Cardinals may spend more resources on a starting pitcher since they concede there is no way to replace Holliday with a single offensive talent. The public clamor for Boston Red Sox free agent Jason Bay is likely to go unanswered. It’s increasingly likely the club will seek to fortify its bullpen with an established set-up reliever to front Ryan Franklin. Think a Russ Springer type, not a Billy Wagner type.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals must have an everyday third baseman, something they didn’t have until Mark DeRosa was reasonably healthy in late July. And, of course, there is no guarantee he will be back. Also, the Cardinals must put together a bench with more firepower, especially from the standpoint of adding a veteran hitter.

JEFF GORDON
This team needs a proven power arm for the right side of the bullpen. That person could graduate into the closing role if Ryan Franklin is unable to regain his ’09 regular season form. And this team could also use a proven left-handed starting pitcher to balance up the rotation. Also, this team needs a lefty bat for the bench — somebody with some pop. So there is lots to do here.

DAN O’NEILL
Without question, the Cardinals have to improve their bench. Signing Mark DeRosa would go a long way toward that goal in that he can play several positions and he hits with power. It could also be that the club has more help for the bench from its Memphis affiliate (Allen Craig?). But certainly, the Cardinals need a bench crew that includes a good defensive infielder and a couple of bats that make the opposing manager pay attention.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
One of the spots in the starting rotation will still have to be filled with a Major League starter. I can’t envision the team giving Joel Pineiro a long-term contract based on one strong season, so with he and John Smoltz filing for free agency the team currently has two rotation spots open. The wise move would be to fill one of them with a solid veteran — maybe bringing Smoltz back — while leaving the fifth spot for someone like Jaime Garcia to claim in spring training.

I don’t think anyone is really overlooking this part of the team but while Matt Holliday is the big name we’re all talking about, let’s not forget that this team was carried largely by the starting rotation in ’09 and they’ll have to make sure someone is there to replace what Pineiro gave them this past season.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What are three keys to the Cardinals securing a Game 1 win tonight?

JOE STRAUSS

1. The Cardinals enjoy an edge in the pitching match-up but need to exploit the advantage by practicing what hitting coach Hal McRae has recently preached: aggressiveness within a tighter strike zone. My thinking is that seeing Skip Schumaker in CF would reinforce that suggestion.

2. Chris Carpenter merely needs to be Carpenter. He has beaten the Dodgers in each of five career starts. He knows that. They know that. The longer he goes, the more obvious the outcome should be to all. His five-and-dive in Cincinnati should leave him in good position for a strong outing tonight.

3. This sounds elementary, but the Cardinals have to more closely resemble the much-improved defensive unit of August than the comedic version that ended the season. Extra outs can neutralize the best pitchers and look to be the Dodgers’ only leverage against Carpenter.

DERRICK GOOLD

1. Chris Carpenter pitching like Chris Carpenter.

2. Ryan Franklin rediscovering his first-half form.

3. The defense waking up from its weeklong, collective and uncharactertistic slumber to play the kind of crisp, sound game that has inexplicably escaped the Cardinals since they clinched.

RICK HUMMEL

1. Carpenter gets to the eighth inning.

2. Franklin closes without incident.

3. Cardinals’ middle infield plays solid defense

JEFF GORDON

1. Chris Carpenter pitches at his very best. If he does that, he can shut down a deep and dangerous Dodgers offense. He and Adam Wainwright are the equalizers.

2. Outfielders not named Matt Holliday need to hit. The run production from the No. 5 spot in the batting order has been sporadic. This would be a great time for Ryan Ludwick to heat up again.

3. Ryan Franklin needs to close. We all saw his lack of sharpness late in the season. But he’s needed now.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: If Kyle Lohse can replicate the success he had in Houston Monday night over his next few appearances, what do you think the deciding factors will be for Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan in choosing between Lohse and John Smoltz as the Cardinals’ fourth starter in the playoffs?

RICK HUMMEL
One factor is that Smoltz probably could revert to short relief, having been used in that role before. Lohse probably would need too much time to warm up to do that. The Cardinals are paying Lohse $41 million for four years to be one of their top starters. If he has two decent games between now and the end of the season, the starting job for the playoffs (at least the first round) is probably his although knowing manager La Russa, he may not announce his fourth-game starter until a day before the game. If then.

DERRICK GOOLD
Versatilility and durability will likely be the two traits that guide their hand. John Smoltz has the much better resume and deeper experience as a reliever — Kyle Lohse had a turn in the ’pen with Philadelphia back in 2007 — but Smoltz’s shoulder and how much he could be used in a short series is an unknown. Starting every five (plus) days is a different grind than pitching three out of four games. He’s confident that his shoulder can handle whatever role he lands. Late Wednesday night after his start in Houston, Smoltz said his “ego isn’t so big that I won’t accept whatever they want me to do. I know that it’s the playoffs and anything can happen, so you can be used in any way.” Lohse has to duplicate his success from Monday’s start and show the consistency he had in 2008 and this past April. He also has to show stamina and strength, otherwise this question is academic. Some see Lohse as the more natural fit in the No. 4 spot because of Smoltz’s seasoning as a shutdown reliever. If Lohse is healthy, the Cardinals seem ready to assume he’ll be effective in October, just as Tony La Russa said he’s comfortable banking on both pitchers being ready for either job once the playoffs arrive — even if that’s when the team decides.

JEFF GORDON
Smoltz’s vast bullpen experience would make him extra valuable in the bullpen. Unlike the fourth starter, he could be a factor in the first series. So if Lohse looks capable of filling the fourth spot — as he did in his last time out — that would allow the Cards to put Smoltz in position to strengthen the pen. If Lohse goes to the pen instead, he would offer nothing more than an innings eater. The Cards have other choices there.

GERRY FRALEY
The bullpen must be considered in this discussion. This is Ryan Franklin’s first full season as the closer. The job is more draining physically than it is mentally. If the Cardinals decide Franklin needs help to get through the playoffs, Smoltz is the likely choice. The innings he is getting as a starter are preparing him to be a reliever. Even if Franklin is hale and hearty, the bullpen could use an extra arm. Relievers are more important in the post-season because the fatigue factor has set in with starters. Philadelphia manager Charlie Manuel considered Lohse to be his”secret weapon’’ as a reliever in the 2007 playoffs. That did not work out so well. In his only appearance, Lohse allowed Kaz Matsui’s grand slam that sent Colorado to a comeback victory.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Closer Ryan Franklin has blown his last two save chances and hs ERA is climbing in recent weeks. How concerned do you think the Cardinals should be about their 36-year-old closer and what would a possible backup plan look like if Franklin continues to struggle?

JOE STRAUSS
Franklin has been fatigued by his first full season as closer, perhaps moreso mentally than physically. Recent results show erosion of command and diminishing late movement. I expect to see less of Franklin in the last two weeks though he has a chance to become the first Redbirds reliever since Tom Henke to win the Rolaids relief award. Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte appear the most logical RH options to work the ninth inning should something happen to Franklin. More and more, John Smoltz looms as a postseason starter. All that said, it is difficult to imagine a scenario short of injury in which TLR comes off Franklin as closer.

DERRICK GOOLD
Blown saves are bound to happen. Ryan Franklin has four this season, and even Mariano Rivera, the standard, has averaged nearly four a season over the past eight seasons. These blown saves are magnified because they’ve led to losses and they’ve happened in succession, in September. No, the bigger concern here is something beneath — or perhaps behind — the blown saves. In his previous eight appearances, Franklin has six saves, but he’s also allowed 11 hits and nine walks. That’s 20 baserunners against seven strikeouts in his past 7 1/3 innings. Franklin is a location pitcher, and before Saturday he had fewer strikeouts (36) than saves (37). His approach puts a premium on command because there are going to be balls in play, and that works best with a lack of runners gaining free passage to first. If Franklin’s feel for his control is off, his performance is off. It’s too early to discuss backup plans. That’s partially because Franklin has had five months of ninth-inning cred built up, and because there is no caveat-free backup.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, the only back-up plan at the closer’s role would be Kyle McClellan — and he hasn’t been consistent enough to merit the promotion. John Smoltz might eventually help the bullpen, but we have seen what his physical limitations are. So the Cardinals need to nurse Franklin along and help him regain his sharpness. There is no other option.

GERRY FRALEY
Franklin’s slump was inevitable. He does not have closer’s stuff. Opponents put the ball in play against Franklin, and that can cause late-inning problems. That said, the Cardinals have no choice but to stay with Franklin. He may not have the stuff of a traditional closer, but he does have the makeup.

In addition, the Cardinals have no clear-cut option. When Colorado pulled Brian Fuentes from the role during its run to the World Series in 2007, the Rockies had a closer-in-waiting in Manny Corpas. The Cardinals’ best in-house option is John Smoltz, who had 144 saves with Atlanta from 2002-04. Smoltz’ current bout of tendinitis reminds the club that he must be handled with care and may not be able to handle the workload of a closer.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Now that the Cardinals have signed John Smoltz, what are your expectations for the rest of this season for the 8-time All Star and former Cy Young winner?

JOE STRAUSS
I believe what the Cardinals project will indeed play out: Smoltz will make 2-3 starts, at least, before migrating to the bullpen in a set-up role for Ryan Franklin. How he handles lefthanded hitters as a starter will likely dictate how much he is trusted against them in relief. By September, the Cardinals plan to add a third LH to the bullpen. If Smoltz is vulnerable to lefts, he and Trever Miller could form a formidable match-up tandem. It would be unwise to expect too much from Sunday’s start given that Smoltz has not appeared since Aug. 6. This is a low-risk/potentially high-reward move. Whatever Smoltz gives them should be considered a bonus. It is illustrative that GM John Mozeliak says the club has ended its search for additional bullpen help. If Smoltz becomes a serviceable six-inning starter, it is more than the Cardinals have received from the No. 5 slot all season.

RICK HUMMEL
Expectations should be modest, inasmuch as Smoltz didn’t help Boston much and if the Red Sox thought Smoltz had something significant left, they would have kept him. The Red Sox got him to pitch in postseason play, where he is 15-4. That being said, Smoltz may be more comfortable in the National League and might be able to give the Cardinals something of a Jeff Weaver-like transfusion. He ultimately will wind up in the bullpen for October play.

DERRICK GOOLD
It’s hard to reconcile Smoltz’s recent performance with the righthander we thought we knew. He struggled with Boston and in his last start he did not pitch well enough to be a starter with most major-league teams, let alone contending major-league teams. That said, Smoltz is a world-class competitor — and his internal drive is contagious. He’ll merge easily into the vibrant culture of the Cardinals’ clubhouse. Less clear is how his role will develop on the field. Lost in the big ERA and struggles he had as a starter was how effective his slider remained against righthanded hitters. At the least, he’ll be an asset out of the bullpen against righthanded hitters, and that’s truly what the Cardinals need. Any innings he gives them as a starter beyond his two-start tryout in the role is a bonus. He’ll be a presence, to be sure. It remains to be seen if he’ll be a factor.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cardinals are fooling themselves if they expect to get even a minor contribution from Smoltz. He has been dumped this season by two teams that know pitching: Atlanta and Boston. It’s hard to believe either club would have given up on Smoltz had he shown even a glimmer of possibilities.

Smoltz no longer has the arm strength to throw an effective split-finger fastball, which he needs to neutralize left-handed hitters. In Smoltz’s brief time with Boston this season, left-handed hitters batted .440 with a .788 slugging percentage against him.

Smoltz has had a superb career, is the epitome of professionalism and is a certain Hall of Famer. Right now, he looks like another Hall of Famer who did not know when it was over. Steve Carlton pitched ineffectively with five teams in his last three seasons before stopping.

JEFF GORDON
Well, he will help. He will work to become a Pedro Martinez-like starter for this team, working into the fifth or sixth inning. That’ll be a stretch, but it will be more fun watching him try than watching Mitchell Boggs walk hitters and Todd Wellemeyer allow homers. His better role would be the eighth inning, where he could set up Ryan Franklin, move Kyle McClellan toward middle relief and keep Jason Motte out of harm’s way. If Smoltz struggles for a few weeks and Jaime Garcia continues his comeback course at Memphis, maybe the Cards could go that direction. But giving him a chance to start and prove skeptics wrong makes much sense.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I expect Smoltz to struggle a bit in his initial workings as a starter, assuming that’s how it all goes, but to settle into a setup role as the playoffs get closer. Even if Smoltz wants to be a starter, a mistake in my opinion, the team certainly recognizes how unlikely it is that he would crack the postseason rotation. Give him a few starts to get some work in and see what happens while preparing for what makes the most sense, Smoltz working in the 7th and 8th innings primarily facing righthanded hitters. He could be devastating in that role.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: On this date last year the Cardinals were 12 games above .500 at 70-58, yet they already trailed the Chicago Cubs by 11.5 games in the National League Central. Fast forward one year and the Cardinals are 15 games above .500 and lead the Cubs by six games. The Cubs are struggling to keep their record above .500 while the Cards seem to be picking up steam. What do you see as the main reasons for the disparity in records of the two clubs between this season and last?

DERRICK GOOLD
The Karma of Mark DeRosa. Things started to go bad for the Cubs when they traded DeRosa to Cleveland in order to clear salary and roster space that was eventually used to sign the human volcano, Milton Bradley. Things started to go right for the Cardinals once DeRosa returned from his wrist injury and heralded a parade of newcomers that have elevated the Cardinals from a division challenger to a pennant contender. So, it’s DeRosa. Well, it’s at least figuratively DeRosa.

One of the biggest tangible reasons is the ninth inning. The Cardinals would have won the division last year if games ended after the sixth inning, but instead they stumbled to more than 30 blown saves and were, as mentioned in the question, light years away from running down the Cubs. This year, the Cubs have 17 blown saves in 46 opportunities. Six of those belong to unsteady closer Kevin Gregg, and the only NL teams with more relief losses than the Cubs all have losing records.

It’s as simple as DeRosa is symbolic: Own the ninth, stay in the hunt.

RICK HUMMEL
The bullpen is one big difference. The Cardinals have had a strong closer in Ryan Franklin. The Cubs haven’t. The Cubs’ best player, Aramis Ramirez, was out for more than two months with injury. The Cardinals’ best player, Albert Pujols, has been there from the start. He is the league’s best player. The Cardinals clearly are the better team now, with Holliday, DeRosa and Lugo on board. But don’t give up on the Cubs yet. They easily could be the wild-card team if they don’t run down the Cardinals.

GERRY FRALEY
The Cubs many problems can be encapsuled in three players: Mark DeRosa, Aramis Ramirez and Geovanny Soto.

A year ago, the trio combined for 71 homers and 284 RBIs with the Cubs. This season, they have 18 homers and 63 RBIs entering Wednesday night’s play. The Cubs traded DeRosa to Cleveland in the off-season to clear payroll space for the left-handed bat that manager Lou Piniella wanted. That was Milton Bradley, and he has been an expensive bust and a disruptive presence in the clubhouse.
Ramirez missed about two months because of a dislocated left shoulder, and the offense withered about him.

Soto looks more and more like a one-year wonder.

With these three players hot last season, the Cubs led the National League with 5.31 runs per game. They are down to 10th with 4.44 runs per game this season. This will not be the year for the Cubs.

JEFF GORDON
Last year injuries destroyed the Cardinals. Adam Wainwright went down and Chris Carpenter didn’t make it back. Jason Isringhausen broke down and the Cards never found a reliable closer. This year the Cards have Wainwright, Carpenter and a reliable closer, Ryan Franklin. So this team was contending for the NL Central crown before adding all the offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, suffered every imaginable injury setback this year. And unlike the Cards, they lack a reliable closer.

DAN O’NEILL
The Cubs are a mess, with problems in the bullpen and the starting rotation. The Cardinals have added Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa and discovered Ryan Franklin is a dependable closer. Last, but certainly not least, they have a healthy Chris Carpenter. End of story.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Last year Ryan Franklin struggled in the closer’s role, as did almost everyone else the Cardinals tried there. This year Franklin has pretty much been nails. Has Franklin made physical adjustments to find greater success or were his problems last year more psychological? Is there any reason to believe he can’t continue to see success this season?

JOE STRAUSS
It’s always easier to pitch when you’re not looking over your shoulder, and Franklin had Jason Isringhausen there last year. There was some uncertainty how long anyone would hold that role. That is far more the reason for Franklin’s success this season than anything mechanical. That situation simply isn’t present this year.

DERRICK GOOLD
Ryan Franklin conceded late last season that he was uncomfortable closing when Jason Isringhausen was healthy and present in the bullpen because he respected Isringhausen as the incumbent, the team’s preferred closer, and the elder statesman of the bullpen. When Isringhausen wasn’t there, Franklin was mostly fine as the club’s closer. You connect the dots. As with almost any reliever in the bullpen, it always helps to know your role and always hurts to look over your shoulder. For much of last season, there were fistfuls of relievers who didn’t know the former and did too much of the latter. This season, Franklin can read the assignments, see that the ninth is being held for him and know there’s no need to wonder if someone is coming up from behind — or if someone more deserving is lurking.

He’s not filling in for the once or future closer. He is the closer. Big difference.

RICK HUMMEL
Last year, Franklin might have been looking over his shoulder a bit. Jason Isringhausen had been the longtime closer and then when Isringhausen asked out of that role, Franklin was thrust into it but may have felt he was just holding the fort until Isringhausen came back. Franklin may think the job is his now. And don’t forget, he did have 17 saves last year, so he wasn’t a total washout.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Franklin has been successful to date because he has been more of a strikeout pitcher, especially against right-handed hitters. A year ago, right-handed batters hit .285 with only 30 strikeouts in 186 at-bats against Franklin. Going into tonight’s game at Washington, he has held right-handed hitters to a .118 average with six strikeouts in 17 at-bats. He has tied up right-handed hitters with increased down-and-in movement on the sinking fastball.

The fewer balls put in play against a closer, the better his chances of preserving a narrow lead. If Franklin can continue to rack up strikeouts at his current rate of one per inning, he could mantain as the closer. If he goes back to being the pitcher who averaged only 5.83 strikeouts per nine innings last season, he will have problems.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Franklin looks great right now. He’s painting the corners with regularity, his fastball has great life and he’s been a stabilizing force for the team’s bullpen. That said, there is cause for concern — Franklin’s 2nd half splits. From 2006-2008, Franklin was a 7-6 pitcher with a 2.87 ERA and 12 saves in 19 chances before the All-Star break. After the break? Try on 9-11 with a 4.80 ERA and just 6 saves in 15 chances for size.

I know the past doesn’t predict the future — thank God for that — but when you’re looking for performance patterns in a 36-year-old reliever I don’t think it’s being “negative” to see cause for concern with those splits.

THE WATERCOOLER

SCENARIO: A major league club opens the season with a pared-down payroll following an offseason in search of “low-hanging fruit” for free agent help. The club’s 99-RBI third baseman from a year ago is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Its former Cy Young-winning pitcher, whom the club said was vital to the success of the rotation this year, is already on the DL again. The team’s defense has committed 19 errors through 20 games. And the club’s manager is shuffling his lineup more than a blackjack dealer to find the right matchups. Through all of this the club finds itself at 14-6 through 20 games and sitting atop the NL Central. That club is the 2009 Cardinals.

QUESTION: Given all these obstacles, and perhaps a few more not mentioned, what do you think is the key to success the Cardinals have had so far this year and is there reason to believe they can sustain a pace anywhere near this?

JOE STRAUSS
Without a doubt the longest question in the history of Round 2. That said, the key to date is the stability of the offensive core, the rotation’s early effectiveness and the bullpen’s solid performance when allowed to pitch in role. (We’ll give the defense a break today.) The take here remains much as it was entering the season: Minus Troy Glaus, the Cardinals will remain solid if their 20 best players remain available. The loss of Chris Carpenter is significant but won’t become magnified unless further attrition occurs. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are experiencing what the Cardinals cannot afford as Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol are all compromised. So far, this season represents a (near) best-case scenario for the Redbirds.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
This will be my shortest answer ever: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Period. Despite the insane, inexplicable hatred that a faction of bizarre, hopelessly bitter fans have for the manager and pitching coach. Can the Cardinals keep it up? Down to the wire, yes. They’ll be in the hunt in September. And that’s the goal.

DERRICK GOOLD
You mean besides the obvious two-word answer: Albert Pujols? The fuel for the Cardinals’ quick start is offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Cardinals led the league in batting average and were fourth in runs scored, yet this year’s lineup is deeper and has the chance to be better because the production won’t be isolated around the island of Pujols-Ludwick. The Cardinals’ hitting this April has papered-over serious concerns, like the innings the starters are leaving for the work-in-progress bullpen to swallow and the errors that force those same pitchers to pitch around. Even an offense powered by Pujols cannot keep up this current pace. Those flaws will come out.

So the starters have to go deeper into games if the Cardinals are going to remain atop the NL Central, and the defense cannot give away outs to make going deeper into games more difficult. The absence of Chris Carpenter is enough of a challenge for the rotation and bullpen to overcome.

Can the Cardinals keep up this winning percentage? No. Can they slow down and still win the NL Central? It’s bad form to back off preseason predictions (especially three weeks in), so I’ll stick with the answer I gave for the preview section. … Sure. Sure, they can.

RICK HUMMEL
The keys, in no particular order, have been the comeback of Joel Pineiro (4-0), who didn’t win his fourth game until August last year; the emergence of Ryan Franklin from a tangled bullpen as the closer; the insight and, even daring, of manager Tony La Russa to find the right daily combinations in the outfield and at third base; the ability of catcher Yadier Molina and the pitchers to absolutely nullify the opposition’s running game. . . and, of course, Albert Pujols. Nobody else has a player like that and anybody who does will always be a contender. Will the Cardinals play .700 ball? No. Could they win 90 or more games? Yes. Will they? I thought 90 before the season, so I’ll stay with that.

JEFF GORDON
There are three keys to the Cards success:

1) The much-maligned Cards managed investing in pitching, extending Kyle Lohse’s deal a year after doing the same for Joel Pineiro. These two are helping offset Carpenter’s injury. John Mozeliak responded to his bullpen deficiency by buying free agent Dennys Reyes during spring training.

2) The player development is paying off. Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs are helping the home-grown Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan and Chris Duncan get the job done.

3) Once again, the team located scrappy, handy utility players in Brian Barden and Joe Thurston.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is blessed with two outstanding coaches in vital positions.

The good work of pitching coach Dave Duncan is well-chronicled. Duncan knows how to get through to distressed pitchers and make them embrace his pitch-to-contact philosophy. This staff will not light up the radar guns, but it will get ground-ball outs.

Batting coach Hal McRae is equally good in his field. He teaches his hitters to use the entire field rather than trying to pull every pitch. A National League scout at last weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs said McRae’s hitters are unusual in that they can drive the ball to the opposite field. When most hitters use the opposite field, the scout said, they lob the ball for singles. The Cardinals get extra-base hits to the opposite field. They go into tonight’s game leading the National League in average at .296, slugging percentage at .476 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at .854.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Now that Chris Perez has been optioned back to Memphis, how much of the closer load do you expect Jason Motte to shoulder? Do you expect it to be a 50/50 timeshare with Ryan Franklin to start the season, or will Motte see a greater load from the very beginning?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Give Jason Motte the ball and the chance as the full-time closer. He has a blazing fastball and is a rare talent, with potential for greatness. Will Tony La Russa install Motte and stick with him? Some blown saves are inevitable and the best closers are allowed to work through slumps. Motte should be given the same consideration but La Russa probably won’t be as patient with a rookie. Ryan Franklin is an excellent setup man but he isn’t a closer. If Motte struggles La Russa will likely turn to Franklin, anyway.

JOE STRAUSS
Motte will shoulder as much as his performance allows. It’s that simple.

RICK HUMMEL
I think Motte will get the first shot at it, although Franklin will get his chance early on, too. If Motte is successful, he should get the majority of, but not all, the opportunities.

GERRY FRALEY
The nature of the job will lead to Motte getting more save chances than Franklin. A top closer must get strikeouts either with pure power or a trick pitch. Of the 15 National League relievers who averaged 10-plus strikeouts per nine innings last season, six were closers. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia’s perfect closer, was second overall among relievers with 11.94 strikeouts per innings.

Motte is a pure power pitcher. In his brief major-league trial last season, Motte had a Lidge-like 16 strikeouts in 11 innings. Motte is a one-pitch (fastball) pitcher at this stage of his career, but that can work for the short term. The Chicago White Sox did all right with a similar guy in 2005: Bobby Jenks.

Franklin is a capable reliever, but he is also a ground-ball pitcher with limited strikeout capability. He averaged 5.83 strikeouts per nine innings last season. The more often the ball is put in play in the late innings, the greater the chance of something bad happening to the team that leads.

JEFF GORDON
Motte is the best candidate for the job, but, understandably, Tony La Russa doesn’t want to blow him up early on. TLR could test him in the “Marmol Role” a few times while seeing if Ryan Franklin is more prepared this season to close. If Franklin gets it done, the veteran could stay there for a stretch. If he repeats last year’s struggles — and if Motte settles in — then TLR can make the switch. La Russa could also use Josh Kinney or Dennys Reyes at the end of a game, depending on the matchup. In time, the manager will want to define everybody’s role. But allowing Motte to ease into the role does make some sense.

TOM ACKERMAN (Sport anchor of “Total Information A.M.” on KMOX)
I would hope that Motte sees the bulk of the work, and I anticipate that he will be the closer most of the time. We’ve seen Franklin in the ninth already; he’s better suited as a set-up man. Motte has shown overpowering stuff in spring training. He possesses a closer’s mentality. If the Cardinals are serious about developing players, then why not Motte?