THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals cannot get Matt Holliday re-signed and that Jason Bay stays with Boston, who are some other options out there that you think the Cardinals should pursue to man left field?

JOE STRAUSS
First, it is premature to assume either premise. Holliday’s market may not be as firm as some insist, especially if Bay returns to Boston and the New York Yankees remain on the periphery. But playing along, the leading free agent outfielders remain Bobby Abreu, a Type A who can steal bases but is also a very limited defender who has suffered a significant ebb in power. The Cardinals literally return to where they started if Holliday leaves, becoming a Pujols-centric attack almost forced to put Ryan Ludwick into the cleanup role.

If the club is serious about giving David Freese a chance to win the third base job, its best options become a trade for an outfielder. John Mozeliak acquired Troy Glaus under duress before the ’08 season. It is feasible that the Washington Nationals make Adam Dunn available this winter before he enters the walk year of his deal. Dunn is owed $10 million next season, a relative bargain in comparison to a 6-8 year deal for Holliday or a 4-year splurge on Bay. Bay, however, represents an extremely good fit in St. Louis should talks with the Red Sox stall.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the reasons the Cardinals’ push for Matt Holliday is so pivotal to their 2010 roster is there is a steep plummet from the class of Holliday and Jason Bay to the other free agents out there this winter. Not one of them is an obvious candidate to hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols like either of those top-shelf left fielders would be. Bobby Abreu or Vlad Guerrero may have the name recognition to do so, but they don’t have that everyday, NL look at this point in their careers.

A name in that second or third tier of free agents that intrigues is Xavier Nady, one year removed from a 97-RBI turn with Pittsburgh and the New York Yankees. He lost 2009 to injury, but had back-to-back 20-homer seasons before that. Nady would be an interesting instant-scratch ticket. Some low-risk options could be found in the secondary market — the players non-tendered by teams. According to reports, the Florida Marlins are likely to non-tender Jeremy Hermida, a lapsed top prospect, and former Brave outfielder Jeff Francoeur could be set free by the New York Mets. Not the big-splash, big bat the Cardinals crave for the middle of the lineup. But if they whiff on Holliday it may be where the Cardinals have to go to supplement the in-house candidates and hope lightning strikes left field.

RICK HUMMEL
Give Allen Craig, one of the top power hitters in Class AAA at Memphis, a glove and work him out in left field all spring. His bat may be good enough but possibly not his defense. Otherwise, sign DeRosa, if his wrist is deemed all right, and make him more or less a full-time outfielder.

JEFF GORDON
I would keep Mark DeRosa and play him in the outfield, if it is determined Skip Schumaker is the long-haul solution at 2B. I’m not sure you can find somebody else with solid 20-homer, 80-RBI potential in free agency. This could also open the door for somebody like Allen Craig to get some OF at bats when De Rosa takes some starts at 3B to spell Freese or 2B when Skip gets a break against lefties.

There isn’t much to deal for, say, a Josh Willingham-type. A guy like Xavier Nady could be interesting to rehab.

QUESTION: What kind of credentials do most hitting coaches bring to the job at the major league level? And does Mark McGwire and his .263 lifetime average seem to measure up for such a position?

JOE STRAUSS

The Chicago Cubs just made Rudy Jaramillo the game’s highest-paid hitting coach and its second highest-paid coach of any description. Jaramillo never played above Double-A but is now the longest-tenured hitting coach in the major leagues. His defection from the Texas Rangers was the equivalent to Dave Duncan leaving the Cardinals as pitching coach. There is only a loose connection between major-league success and effectiveness as a hitting coach. Charlie Lau, whose philosophies revolutionized the craft, was a career .255 hitter with 16 home runs in fewer than 1,200 major-league at-bats. Don Mattingly, a borderline Hall of Famer, is recognized for doing strong work with the Los Angeles Dodgers after serving in the same capacity for the New York Yankees. Like McGwire, Mattingly served no apprenticeship in the minor leagues. Greatness as a player does not automatically translate into the ability to recognize flaws and to communicate fixes. The greatest hitter ever, Ted Williams, quickly became frustrated trying to help those less gifted than he. Tony La Russa on Monday described the job as more art than science. The inability to predict makes the Cardinals’ selection of McGwire all the more intriguing.

BERNIE MIKLASZ

What McGwire did as a hitter in the majors is largely irrelevant, especially his batting average. But to gauge McGwire’s intelligence as a hitter, take a look at his on-base percentage and the average number of pitches he took per at-bat. Charlie Lau was considered one of the best hitting coaches in MLB history and as a player he batted .255 in the bigs, with a mediocre .318 OBP and .365 slugging percentage. Another revered hitting coach was Walt Hriniak, who batted .253 in only 111 plate appearances. One of the current hitting coaches who garners rave reviews is Rudy Jaramillo, who was just signed to a $2 million deal by the Cubs. He never played in the majors and hit .258 in the minors. Terry Pendleton and Don Mattingly are among the former players who became MLB batting coaches with no coaching time in the minors.

McGwire was a smart hitter in the second half of his career; his cerebral approach was an important part of his success. And his work ethic and dedication as a hitter was underrated. But what is his hitting philosophy? Does it fit all hitters, from the power guys to the singles hitters? Can he communicate the philosophy in a simple way? Can he repair a hitter’s mechanical flaws? Can he connect in a way that will reach and lift a struggling hitter’s confidence? McGwire has been praised for his 1-on-1 work with hitters but how will he deal with a roster of position players — 14 or 15 hitters — at the same time? These are all legit questions, and obviously manager Tony La Russa believes that McGwire has the right combination of hitting intellect and people skills. We’ll see.

JEFF GORDON

Intuitively, you would expect a hitter who used all the fields (like Hal McRae) would offer more than a dead pull hitter (like Mark McGwire). But Big Mac is something of a freak when it comes to mental preparation, concentration at the plate and mastery of the strike zone. With an OPS exceeding 1.000 during his Cards heyday, McGwire became one of the toughest outs in baseball. Even without his intentional walks, his latter-day OPS was very good in St. Louis. If some of this can rub off on guys like Ryan Ludwick, great.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)

There is no such thing as a “set of credentials” that a hitting coach can bring to the table. Their backgrounds are varied and there is no “path” to becoming a successful hitting instructor, no prerequisites that prove whether or not an individual will be good at the job. Some of the best hitting instructors of all time were mediocre hitters during their playing days, some of the worst had what would seem to be perfect pedigrees.

I believe McGwire will be a good hitting instructor for two reasons: because hitting is his passion in life and because he values preparation, much like Dave Duncan does when it comes to pitching.

What McGwire was really good at as a hitter was working counts in his favor so he could do what he did best…hit the ball over the fence. His career average may have been low but his on-base percentage was .394 and he hit a home run every 10.6 at-bats. In other words, he knew how to play to his own strength. That’s what he’ll be asked to do for the Cardinals hitters: refine their approaches and identify the occasional glitch so they, too, can emphasize their strengths at the plate. Plus, he’ll know when to leave well enough (read: Albert Pujols) alone.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What are three keys to the Cardinals securing a Game 1 win tonight?

JOE STRAUSS

1. The Cardinals enjoy an edge in the pitching match-up but need to exploit the advantage by practicing what hitting coach Hal McRae has recently preached: aggressiveness within a tighter strike zone. My thinking is that seeing Skip Schumaker in CF would reinforce that suggestion.

2. Chris Carpenter merely needs to be Carpenter. He has beaten the Dodgers in each of five career starts. He knows that. They know that. The longer he goes, the more obvious the outcome should be to all. His five-and-dive in Cincinnati should leave him in good position for a strong outing tonight.

3. This sounds elementary, but the Cardinals have to more closely resemble the much-improved defensive unit of August than the comedic version that ended the season. Extra outs can neutralize the best pitchers and look to be the Dodgers’ only leverage against Carpenter.

DERRICK GOOLD

1. Chris Carpenter pitching like Chris Carpenter.

2. Ryan Franklin rediscovering his first-half form.

3. The defense waking up from its weeklong, collective and uncharactertistic slumber to play the kind of crisp, sound game that has inexplicably escaped the Cardinals since they clinched.

RICK HUMMEL

1. Carpenter gets to the eighth inning.

2. Franklin closes without incident.

3. Cardinals’ middle infield plays solid defense

JEFF GORDON

1. Chris Carpenter pitches at his very best. If he does that, he can shut down a deep and dangerous Dodgers offense. He and Adam Wainwright are the equalizers.

2. Outfielders not named Matt Holliday need to hit. The run production from the No. 5 spot in the batting order has been sporadic. This would be a great time for Ryan Ludwick to heat up again.

3. Ryan Franklin needs to close. We all saw his lack of sharpness late in the season. But he’s needed now.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cards went 5-2 against the Dodgers in two series played back in July and August. That was then. This is now. How do you think the Cardinals match up with the Dodgers?

DERRICK GOOLD
St. Louis’ regular-season success masks the fact that the Cardinals didn’t really hit well against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In seven games this past season, the Cardinals, as a lineup, hit .218 with a .306 on-base percentage and a .343 slugging percentage. The Dodgers were able to contain the middle of the Cardinals’ order, pitching around Pujols (who hit .222 vs. LA, but had a .400 on-base percentage) and handcuffing Ryan Ludwick (.192/.276/.192). Matt Holliday offers somewhat of a deterrent there for the Dodgers, but he too had his troubles with LA pitching (4-for-22 at Dodger Stadium). All of that reveals how the Cardinals went 5-2 against the Dodgers this season: pitching. And that hasn’t changed from the regular season to October. Of all of the numbers that can be tossed out there to illustrate the Division Series ahead, it’s really two names that define the Cardinals’ edge in this series: Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright.

RICK HUMMEL
The edge the Cardinals have over the Dodgers is that they have two premier, top-of-the-line starters in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and the Dodgers have only one — and Clayton Kershaw still is in training. But Kershaw could be deadly pitching in Thursday afternoon’s twilight. The 5-2 mark is very misleading because many of the games were very close but in a five-game series, the team having two outstanding starting pitchers who potentially could make four starts is the better team.

JEFF GORDON
Randy Wolf will be a major pain for the Cardinals, given his ability to exploit their various offensive weaknesses. And LA has hammers at the back of its bullpen. But the Cards have a huge advantage with top-end pitching and with the Pujols/Holliday combo. The Dodgers are still sorting through their pitchers. The Cards seem set up to prevail in a short series. Neither team played great down the stretch and both teams have playoff-tested Hall of Fame-caliber managers, so this will be fun.

GERRY FRALEY
This is, by far, the better matchup for the Cardinals. The Dodgers lack a dominating starter. Their opening-game starter, lefthander Randy Wolf, is the bad-karma pitcher of the season. The Dodgers have nine blown saves behind Wolf, who has trouble getting beyond the sixth inning. Lefthander Clayton Kershaw allowed 4.79 walks per nine innings and also usually departs in the middle innings. The bullpen is fried after working 553 innings, the third-highest total in the majors. (The Cardinals’ bullpen had the fewest innings in the majors at 437.) The Cardinals were also among the first team to discover that Manny Ramirez, the Dodgers’ No. 3 hitter, can no longer handle hard stuff inside. Ramirez went 4-for-28 with no homers, one RBI and only two extra-base hits during the season series with the Cardinals.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals have been scuffling of late, just as the 2006 team did down the stretch before going on a World Series run. Do you see any similarities between the two teams, or is it entirely different this time?

JOE STRAUSS
The biggest difference is health. The ’06 team was racked by injuries to David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen and Jason Isringhausen. The cumulative effect nearly took them down in the stretch before an inspired bullpen performance, a rejuvenated Rolen (assisted by a well-timed cortisone injection to his shoulder) and Eckstein’s return from an oblique problem allowed the team to make its push. This 2009 team has far fewer health concerns but is being dragged down by inconsistent offense. Call it what you like — poor plate discipline, indifferent clutch hitting, cruise control — this team has not looked like the sum of its offensive parts for some time. A spark from Ryan Ludwick, now hitting sixth in the order, would be helpful. The fact that Matt Holliday is now on a 10-game hitting streak doesn’t carry much weight when the lineup is struggling at the Nos. 5-6 spots. It would be foolish to write off a team that looked like the league’s best in August. However, a different approach must be found before next Wednesday’s Division Series opener, it would seem.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I understand the similarities — namely, a dull and losing performance late in the season, especially by the hitters — but it’s a stretch. The 2006 Cardinals didn’t have its regular lineup for much of September. Injuries were a factor. CF Jim Edmonds had 28 ABs in September; SS David Eckstein had 23. Outfielder Juan Encarnacion had a hand/wrist injury, and though he kept playing, the condition would later require minor surgery. Guys like Aaron Miles and Preston Wilson received a lot of at-bats. Scott Rolen’s shoulder was especially sore, and he batted .225 in September. Trade acquisition Ronnie Belliard hit .214 in the final month. As for the pitching, Jeff Weaver had yet to take his magic carpet ride, and the bullpen was unsettled, with Jason Isringhausen transitioning out and Adam Wainwright entering as the closer.

The way I see it, the problem right now is one of decompression. The Cardinals basically had a playoff spot secured a month ago, and they haven’t been able to stay wired up.

RICK HUMMEL
The situations aren’t entirely different but this time the Cardinals have two bona fide No. 1 starters in Carpenter and Wainwright to take into any series in the playoffs and they had only Carpenter they really could count on in 2006. The World Series champion of three years ago, though, was a much more experienced team inasmuch as almost all of the prominent players, with the exception of Wainwright, had been in postseason play before. This year, the Cardinals will have a starting second baseman, shortstop, center fielder and right fielder who haven’t been in the postseason.

JEFF GORDON
Every team is different and every season is different. This team should be better equipped with front-line pitching, a (theoretically) deep offense and a solid back end of the bullpen. On paper, this is a much better team. But this team is also hitting below its potential right now, which has to be unsettling for Tony La Russa. The ’06 team proved that anything is possible come playoff time, good or bad.

GERRY FRALEY
The 2006 team was injury-riddled and unable to keep its best lineup on the field at the end of that season. This club is in far better health, at least according to the public pronouncements of a secretive organization. A healthy team that cannot slap around Homer Bailey is having lineup problems. In 2006, the Cardinals knew they would get better as soon as they were healthy. This club does not have that to lean upon going into the post-season.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t see similarities between the ’09 Cardinals and the ’06 Cardinals at all. The ’06 team was falling apart down the stretch trying to get healthy while losing games. That team was 13-15 in August and 12-17 from September 1st on, for a grand total of 25-32 down the stretch that included a 7-game losing streak in the 3rd week of September. The ’09 Cardinals were 20-6 in August and are 13-12 in September entering play on the 30th. That’s 33-18 compared to 25-32, which isn’t even close. It’s +15 compared to -7, using Tony La Russa’s way of looking at things. The ’09 Cardinals are also a lot healthier and have a much more stable pitching situation.

In ’06 the Cardinals starters toward the end of the season were Chris Carpenter (3.09), Jason Marquis (6.02), Jeff Suppan (4.12), Mark Mulder (7.14), Anthony Reyes (5.06) and Jeff Weaver (5.18). Look how ugly those ERAs are and then toss in the fact that Jason Isringhausen was collapsing because of his bad hip and a young pup named Adam Wainwright was still emerging as a reliever and you had pure, unadulterated panic down the stretch.

This year they’ve got Carpenter (2.30), Wainwright (2.58), Joel Pineiro (3.44), Kyle Lohse (4.84) and John Smoltz (3.18) in the late season rotation and while Ryan Franklin has struggled more of late than he did early in the season, his ERA is still just 1.95 and he’s saved 38 games in 43 chances. Franklin’s 7.56 ERA and .382 opponent batting average in September is scary, no doubt, but that isn’t enough to compare the ’09 Cards to the ’06 Cards.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Joel Pineiro will take the mound vs. the Mets tomorrow night sporting a 2.84 ERA on the season. Pineiro has far exceeded expectations this season with a renewed emphasis on the sinker. As he will hit free agency at the end of this season, and given the many other Cardinals players also reaching free agency, what do you think the chances are that the team will be able to lock up Pineiro to a new contract?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals gave Kyle Lohse $41 million over four years last September. Based on numbers other than win percentage, Pineiro is enjoying a better season. It’s hard to imagine Pineiro taking a significant lower Annual Average Value than Lohse, who did agree to backload his deal. A baseline of 3 years/$27 million may be discussed. Length of contract may be more an obstacle than AAV. It’s a matter of priorities, which underscores the organization’s need to read the Matt Holliday situation. If Holliday is extended, the club may have to scrimp on starting pitcher or delay talks of an extension with Albert Pujols. It already appears a mortal lock that next year’s No. 5 starter will come from within the organization (Garcia, Walter, Boggs, Hawksworth, McClellan). Look for any deal(s) to be weighted heavily after 2011, when several deals now on the books expire.

RICK HUMMEL
They’ll have a much better chance if they lock him in as they did Kyle Lohse last year, i.e. before he goes out on the open market. Believe it or not, Pineiro, because of his outstanding control and ability to keep the ball in the ball park, will be one of the most sought-after pitching free agents.

DERRICK GOOLD
Today, those chances seem minimal. Joel Pineiro has the look of a pitcher who will follow Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis, heck, even Jeff Weaver, and so many other reanimated pitchers on the path out of town. His reinvention as a sinkerball pitcher has been well-timed and mutually beneficial — the Cardinals are getting his performance in a division-title race and he’ll get the benefit of recasting his career in a contract year. The one catch is this: Are the Cardinals convinced they have a pitcher ready to move into that spot? Are they willing to turn two spots in the rotation over to a competition of Todd Wellemeyer and minor leaguers like P.J. Walters, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, etc.? If Pineiro is gone — and most likely he is — the Cardinals better be content with who’s coming up or be willing to pay to replace him.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
If the Cardinals act early, it will improve their chances. Pineiro has reinvented himself this year; his ground-ball rate of 73.3 is the best in the majors to this point. I think Pineiro is smart enough to realize he has a great pitching coach and a terrific situation here. That said, we’ve seen jumpy MLB teams give insane contracts to pitchers, so if Pineiro hits the open market, he could be very attractive to some bigger-market teams that need a 4th or 5th starter.

GERRY FRALEY
Pineiro’s agent, Adam Katz, is a realist, and that bodes well for the Cardinals.

The coming free-agent market could be flush with top starting pitchers. Righthanders Josh Beckett, Rich Harden and John Lackey and lefthanders Cliff Lee and Jarrod Washburn could all be available this fall.

Pineiro has pitched well this season, but he still runs the risk of being squeezed on the free-agent market and forced to take a leftover of an offer. If the Cardinals make a fair offer, Pineiro and Katz would be wise to take the sure thing.

The alternative is to become the next Jeff Weaver. He has had a rocky ride since his standout performance for the Cardinals in their 2006 run to the World Series title. Weaver jumped to Seattle in 2007, and did not make it through the season. He spent all of last season and part of this year in the minors before making it back with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a long reliever-spot starter.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I’d call it 60-40 in favor of Pineiro being kept around. Both he and Wellemeyer are up after the season and the Cards don’t appear to have two Major League ready kids to take those spots heading into 2010, nor does it seem likely that Welly is brought back. In that case you almost have to re-sign Pineiro unless his demands are outrageous.

Not counting the contracts of Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa (because they came in later in the season) the Cards will have roughly $40 million freed up after the season, though that includes Pineiro’s money and the contracts of Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick. Keeping Holliday would knock $15-18 million off that right off the top, leaving $22-25 million for Pineiro, DeRosa, Ludwick and any other potential free agents they’d like to retain (Ankiel, Jason LaRue, Trever Miller, etc.). Things could be tight unless payroll goes back up to the 2008 level next year.

If Pineiro isn’t looking for a Kyle Lohse contract of 4 years and $41 million (which is what I’d be asking for if I were his agent) then his chances of staying will be better. If he is seeking that big deal the Cards will be facing some difficult decisions.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: It appears Cardinals outfielder Ryan Ludwick is starting to come out of his slump. Are you seeing any differences in Ludwick’s approach at the plate or is he simply returning to form?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Ludwick is taking more pitches. He has drawn more walks. Clearly getting a better look at the ball and using the count in his favor. Even when he’s off on a pitch he’s fouling it off instead of swinging and missing. The timing is better. There is less air in his swing. And obviously his confidence must be growing. And as his 3-run homer off Todd Coffey showed, Ludwick is now able to handle fastballs from RH pitching again. That was a strength last season but for the first three months this season Ludwick was often overmatched against hard stuff from righthanders. But he’s doing damage again.

RICK HUMMEL
Ludwick appears to be swinging at fewer “pitchers’ pitches” and more of his own choosing by hitting ahead in the count. He still could finish with 25-plus homers and 90 RBI.

DERRICK GOOLD
Ludwick said a week ago that he felt he was getting closer because he was being more assertive with the one pitch he was getting to hammer. He may have fouled it off or lobbed it out to center — but he was recognizing it and wasn’t missing it. Now it looks like he’s driving it. He’s not quite returning to the form that carried him through 2008, but his swing is more productive and the power is starting to spike again. For the Cardinals, the best thing Ludwick can do is become more productive driving in runs and with runners on base because batting behind Albert Pujols there is often going to be at least one runner on base.

JEFF GORDON
He is fighting off more tough pitches than before. He is staying alive at the plate by fouling off pitches rather than whiffing at them. He is earning the opportunity to attack more mistake pitches. Little by little, he fought his away out of a pretty deep funk. If only Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan could do the same …

DAN O’NEILL
Ludwick appears to be seeing the ball a little better, seems to be laying off pitches he was offering at before. But I wouldn’t be too excited. He’s hardly tearing the cover off the ball. If he continues the revival in Chicago over the weekend, the All-Star break couldn’t come at a worse time.

GERRY FRALEY
The decision to have Ludwick skip a minor-league injury-rehabilitation assignment before being activated looks worse by the day. Had Ludwick faced minor-league pitching for a few days, he would have returned on an upswing. By not taking a rehab assignment, Ludwick tried a cold start against major-league pitching. That does not work. It has taken him this long to get everything right.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Some of Ludwick’s resurgence is simply the numbers finding sea level. While he may not be the hitter he was last season, he’s certainly better than his performance so far this season. Things were bound to level off. That said, Ludwick looks like he’s letting the ball get deeper in the hitting zone here in recent days and that’s keeping him from being fooled on pitches as much as he had been. The home run to right center the other day at Miller Park was a great sign and fastballs don’t seem to be giving him as much trouble either. I wouldn’t say he’s “back” to where he was last year but he is getting back to the point where he’s going to provide some support for Albert.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals made a long-awaited move this weekend in acquiring Mark DeRosa from the Cleveland Indians. With this team still hovering near the top of the NL Central and with a chance to win the division, do you think they are done dealing, or do you think there is still a chance they make a run at someone like Matt Holliday to fortify this lineup?

JOE STRAUSS
The Cardinals are not done exploring other deals but they may have bought some time. GM John Mozeliak said Sunday he will take the next couple weeks to assess DeRosa’s effect on the club and act accordingly. Five weeks remain until the trade deadline. The club may believe its greatest need is a pitcher. Should Troy Glaus go on a rehab within the next couple weeks, there will be additional willingness to wait. The benefit of acquiring DeRosa now is first his production, but also assessing where he fits best on the club. He appears slotted as the everyday third baseman with Khalil Greene returning to the DL. But should Glaus progress, DeRosa also becomes an OF option, freeing up chips to acquire a starter or set-up man. Holliday will apparently remain on the market for awhile given Oakland’s heavy asking price.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
Another move is possible, but Matt Holliday is probably too big of a fish to reel in next month. I wouldn’t be surprised if they pursued a starting pitcher to fill Todd Wellemeyer’s spot in the rotation.

DERRICK GOOLD
Adding DeRosa is clearly the move the Cardinals had to make — and make as soon as possible — because it keeps them in contention. It isn’t, however, the only move needed to cinch their intent to contend for a title. What they have done by adding DeRosa is put themselves in position to make a deadline deal with an eye on being better in August, September and then, in a Larry Walker-esque way, October. That includes — but isn’t exclusive to — monitoring the market for Matt Hollliday and seeing if the cost of doing business with Billy Beane drops as the clock ticks toward August 1. Pitching should also be on their radar. DeRosa fills a need. Now the Cardinals can look to augment. The bottom line is the, well, bottom line. Swallowing the remainder of DeRosa’s $5.5 million contract is palatable enough for the Cardinals that they still maintain that “payroll flexibility” to offer any trade-deadline fruit that hangs low enough some dry powder to land in.

GERRY FRALEY
Mark DeRosa batted cleanup on Sunday in his debut with the Cardinals. If that does not say the lineup needs one more bat, nothing does. DeRosa is a solid hitter, but he does not belong in the cleanup spot. He is an ideal No. 6 hitter, maybe with some time in the fifth spot. Given righthander Todd Wellemeyer’s struggles, the Cardinals are going to be in the market for another starter soon, if not already. Wellemeyer is 3-5 with a 6.32 ERA in his last 10 starts and has drained the bullpen by going five innings or fewer in six of his 16 starts overall. That does not fit with a contender.

JEFF GORDON
This team still needs more. If Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Chris Duncan continue to struggle with run production, this team won’t have enough offense to make a serious playoff run. Perhaps DeRosa will take some heat off those guys and spur better production. We’re seeing a lot of poor at-bats in critical situations. It’s shocking, really, how badly some of these guys are hitting.

DAN O’NEILL
I would think the Cardinals are done dealing. The Matt Holliday trade never has made sense to me, especially if it includes Ryan Ludwick. Seems to me you’re trading very similar players, trading your only righthanded-hitting outfielder to get a righthanded-hitting outfielder. I think if the Cardinals get Lohse back, they are set with their club for a while, if not for the duration.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Given what’s gone on in the NL Central the last few years, how many wins do you think it’s going to take to win the division this year?

JOE STRAUSS
The division lead now stands at 6 over .500. For arguments sake, let’s say the NL Central leader is 44-37 at the midpoint. That team would have to play .600 ball the rest of the way to push its win total to 92 wins. That appears unlikely within a division that is 10 games under .500 in interleague play.

If a team is going to go crazy, it will likely do so by pummeling its division rivals. The Cardinals and Cubs may be best positioned to do so. The Cardinals have played the Astros only three times; the Cubs have seen the Pirates only three times. The Cardinals so far enjoy the best intradivisional record by percentage points over the Reds. The Cardinals have ripped off three 5-game win streaks; the Reds have so far mustered a single 4-game tear. The Brewers are the Central’s streakiest bunch, having three 4-game win streaks and a 7-game tear. Those streaks account for 21 of their 38 wins. The Brewers also have a mere plus-5 run differential, suggesting pitching deficiencies. (The Cardinals rank behind the Dodgers and Rockies at plus 24.)

At its current pace the NL Central will go to a team winning 88 games. However, that is within a tightly bunched division where injuries have especially hurt the Cubs and Cardinals. Somebody will catch in the second half against a flimsy division.

My answer: 90 wins takes the division…

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I’m thinking 90 wins should do it. I assume that the Milwaukee Brewers will address their pitching woes; GM Doug Melvin is usually proactive about getting help for his roster. I assume that some of those key Cubs bats will heat up, and GM Jim Hendry is never reluctant to make a big move. It looks like a so-so division right now, but the Brewers, Cubs and Reds are capable of playing better. And at least one of those teams will take off and make a charge. That’s why it would be a travesty for Cardinals management to play stall ball and bank on other teams doing poorly.

DAN O’NEILL
The way things are going in the NL Central, I think 88 wins can win the division. The Cardinals appear to be a very ordinary team, yet they are leading the division. If they get Kyle Lohse back, if Chris Carpenter remains healthy and if Ryan Ludwick ever starts hittng, they have a good chance to be there.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, it would seem that 90 victories would be plenty to win the NL Central. Every team has flaws — and there is no guarantee that much help will be available in the marketplace next month. I still believe Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have more to offer, so the Cards’ front-end starting pitching and solid bullpen could get them to 90 IF the team avoids further injury.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: NL Central division rival Chicago arrives today for a three-game series, followed by a three-game set against cross-state rival Kansas City. In addition to those two important series, the Cards are anticipating the return Wednesday of Chris Carpenter and Rick Ankiel, which in turn will force some roster moves. It’s shaping up to be an important week. All that said, what do you think will be the most important development for the Cardinals in this homestand?

JOE STRAUSS
As big a deal as Carp’s start is Wednesday, Ankiel’s return on the same day potentially helps the team every day. The offense has fallen into a torpor ever since Ankiel’s loss was compounded by Ryan Ludwick’s hamstring strain. The Cardinals have very few ways to win now short of a solid start. Returning Ankiel to the lineup offers Pujols greater protection, allows TLR to drop Yadier Molina to a more comfortable spot in the order, and at least gives another reason to believe the Cards can score more than once in an inning. Carpenter makes the team better the day and the day after he pitches. During one of his offensive binges, Ankiel can be a daily force. In eight years of covering this club, I can’t recall a more difficult time for a Cardinals lineup than the last week.

RICK HUMMEL
It’s always about Carpenter. It’s not only what he brings with his physical ability, but the emotional lift he would give to a team that is kind of confused right now.

DERRICK GOOLD
The most important long-term development for the Cardinals during this homestand is … and how many times have we written this in the past three seasons? … the healthy return and presence of Chris Carpenter. Film at 11. The damning short-term development for the Cardinals in this homestand is how deep a crippled offense leaves them in the standings. Wins could be scarce against the Cubs and the Royals are improved. The Cardinals entered this homestand in first place in the NL Central. They could leave it with Rick Ankiel in the lineup, Chris Carpenter in the rotation, and a serious drop in the standings.

JEFF GORDON
At this point, the Cards need to win some games and stabilize. Period. How they do that is not important. Just having Carpenter and Ankiel back will give the boost, but a LOT of players are struggling all at once. By winning a few of these games, the Cards could release some of their building frustration and build toward a turnaround. This team can’t get everybody out of their funk at once, but a couple of victories against quality opponents would start the process.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
I don’t know if it will be a positive development or not, but what I’m most curious about seeing this week is how Tony La Russa will dish out the playing time at SS and 3B. Joe Strauss’ story (in Tuesday’s Post-Dispatch) about Khalil Greene moving into a reserve role for the time being makes you wonder how it’s all going to play out. Does Tyler Greene emerge as a legit option as the regular shortstop? What about Brendan Ryan? Do we see him more at short, at third or will he be on the pine? Are Brian Barden (.083 in May) and Joe Thurston (.195 in May) going to lose at-bats or will they continue to play regularly?

How things develop at those two positions could determine a lot here in the near future because the other offensive issues will fix themselves, to a degree, once Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick return to the lineup. If you’re not getting much out of 3B and SS, however, you’re looking at a lineup that won’t have a threat in the bottom third. In that scenario you would need Yadier Molina to swing the bat more like he did in April (.333/.402/.500) than what he’s doing in May (.222/.387/.329) — and that’s not a fair expectation. Yadi’s gotten better as a hitter but if you’re counting on consistent run production from him in the middle third of the order things are going to continue to be tough on offense.

A little something on offense from SS and 3B would certainly go a long way.