THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What do you think will be the strongest determining factor(s) as to whether or not Tony La Russa returns as Cardinals manager after his contract expires at the end of this season?

JOE STRAUSS
1. Inner drive
2. Team’s success
3. Working relationship with front office/ownership
4. Job availability elsewhere

BERNIE MIKLASZ
La Russa usually bases his decision on his relationship with players, and certainly that will be an important factor again. But this time his relationship with Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak will be the most substantial consideration. It will come down to trust. Namely: does La Russa believe that management is committed to giving him a reasonable chance to win?

RICK HUMMEL
La Russa stays if he thinks (a) the players still tolerate him, (b) management still wants him, (c) the fans haven’t turned on him and (d) if the Cardinals have a good enough season in 2009 and a nucleus that could challenge for a world title in 2010. But (e) I think he’ll think 14 years is quite enough, especially if the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs for a third straight season.

DERRICK GOOLD
Simply, his fire. If manager Tony La Russa still burns to compete, to manage, to spend months away from home, days leaning on a fungo bat and some nights tossing and turning in his office at Busch Stadium, then he’ll return. If he gets to a point where even he doesn’t buy the message he’s selling after all of these years, then he’ll take a break or call it a career. Sure he wants to be supplied with a ready-to-contend club — who doesn’t? — but the Cardinals offer him a comfort and an environment that is appealing and supportive beyond the competitive level of the team. They cater to him and his staff. He recognizes that. Only when he cannot meet his own standards of competitive verve will he walk away.

JEFF GORDON
Can the kids play? If Colby Rasmus, Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, Brett Wallace, Jason Motte, David Freese, Joe Mather, Jess Todd, Jon Jay et al are really all that, then the Cards will be highly competitive going forward. Tony La Russa would have a chance to mold the next generation of players. But if the emphasis on player development doesn’t pay off, then the philosophical differences between TLR and Bill DeWitt/John Mozeliak will drive him away.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

TEN NIGHTS IN FEBRUARY: In the immortal words of Jim Mora, “Playoffs?!? Playoffs?!?”

Yes, I know it may sound absurd talking about the Blues playoff chances as they sit in last place today in the Western Conference. Blues players and the front office certainly have tried to steer clear of too much playoff talk, rather focusing on the “one-game-at-a-time” mantra. But I’m here to tell you that ten nights in February will be the make-or-break period that defines this team’s season.

And it begins tonight, fittingly, in a game against the team now holding the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference — Vancouver. In the next ten games, a period that will end in Phoenix on Feb. 28, the Blues will be doing battle almost solely against teams within striking distance in the Western Conference. It’s a unique opportunity for this team to pick up points, climb in the standings and be sitting on the cusp of a playoff spot when the calendar hits March.

Currently the Blues are in 15th place with 50 points. Take a look at the upcoming sked, with total team points and where the teams’ stand in the Western Conference:

Vancouver, 56 points, 8th place
@ Nashville, 53 points, 12th place
Chicago, 66 points, 4th place
New York Rangers (6th place in Eastern Conference)
@ Columbus, 55 points, 10th place
@ Nashville
Nashville
Phoenix, 53 points, 13th place
@ Dallas, 59 points, 5th place
@ Phoenix

You look at that sked and tell me the import of these next ten games. The Blues get three shots at 12th-place Nashville and two against 13th-place Phoenix. And in the last ten games they’ve played, the Blues have performed as well or better than all of these teams ahead of them in the conference. This is the pivotal point of the season. A strong run in the next ten games (let’s say 14 or 15 points) puts them in the thick of the race. On the flip side, coming out of this stretch at .500 most likely leaves the Blues on the outside looking in again this year.

It begins tonight. Vancouver. One game at a time.

A-ROD, A-ROID, A-FRAUD: So Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez — after getting caught — comes clean (no pun intended) and admits he was using steroids while with the Texas Rangers from 2001-2003. What, does this really surprise anyone? Just because the guy has had a relationship with the modern-day Madonna, did you think it meant He walked on water? I think it’s sad news for the game of baseball as many thought Rodriguez ultimately, and legitimately, would one day grab the title of Home Run King from Barry Bonds. Now we know Rodriguez’s numbers will be tainted, too, along with the rest of them. But I really can’t say I’m surprised … in fact, there’s not a name in the game that could come out as having used ’roids some time in the last ten years that would truly surprise me. Not one. I’m not saying everyone did it, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be surprised. Would you? Really?

As expected, the New York tabloids are having a field day with A-Rod’s “confession.” I particularly enjoyed a column by Daily News columnist Mike Lupica, where he says, “(Rodriguez) says he was young, stupid, naive. The fact of the matter is that he took the drugs for the same reason they all took them — to get bigger and stronger and better. In that way he is no better than Barry Bonds or any other drug cheat.”

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THINGS TO PONDER

ONE TOKE OVER THE LINE: Swimmer Michael Phelps tells the Baltimore Sun “it will take a few months” to decide whether he’s willing to commit to the 2012 Olympics. After recently being pictured in a British tabloid smoking a bong, it’s not all that surprising Phelps needs time sorting out his thoughts … it comes with the territory. (Or so I’m told.)

Speaking of Phelps, if you haven’t seen the Seth Meyers’ Weekend Update from Saturday Night Live taking Kellogg’s to task for dumping Phelps as a spokesman, you’re missing a good one. Meyers also chides USA Swimming for suspending Phelps for three months, saying: If you really want someone to stop smoking pot, giving them three months off work probably isn’t the best way to do it.

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STAT OF THE DAY

21 seconds — That is the fastest hat trick scored by a player in NHL history. The feat was accomplished by Bill Mosienko of the Chicago Blackhawks on March 23, 1952. According to “Hockey’s Top 100: The Game’s Greatest Records,” here’s how it happened: The Blackhawks were trailing the Rangers 6-2 in the third period. At 6:09, Mosienko snapped a low wrister past goalie Lorne Anderson, a rookie appearing in only his third NHL game. On the ensuing faceoff, Mosienko received a pass from teammate Gus Bodnar and put it in the net at 6:20. Another Chicago faceoff win left Mosienko with the puck and he reportedly deked Anderson off his feet, netting his third goal at 6:30. That’s it … three goals, 21 seconds.

As a side note, the Rangers fell apart and lost that game 7-6 … and that rookie goaltender? Well, Lorne Anderson never played again in the NHL.