THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: Assuming the Cardinals cannot get Matt Holliday re-signed and that Jason Bay stays with Boston, who are some other options out there that you think the Cardinals should pursue to man left field?

JOE STRAUSS
First, it is premature to assume either premise. Holliday’s market may not be as firm as some insist, especially if Bay returns to Boston and the New York Yankees remain on the periphery. But playing along, the leading free agent outfielders remain Bobby Abreu, a Type A who can steal bases but is also a very limited defender who has suffered a significant ebb in power. The Cardinals literally return to where they started if Holliday leaves, becoming a Pujols-centric attack almost forced to put Ryan Ludwick into the cleanup role.

If the club is serious about giving David Freese a chance to win the third base job, its best options become a trade for an outfielder. John Mozeliak acquired Troy Glaus under duress before the ’08 season. It is feasible that the Washington Nationals make Adam Dunn available this winter before he enters the walk year of his deal. Dunn is owed $10 million next season, a relative bargain in comparison to a 6-8 year deal for Holliday or a 4-year splurge on Bay. Bay, however, represents an extremely good fit in St. Louis should talks with the Red Sox stall.

DERRICK GOOLD
One of the reasons the Cardinals’ push for Matt Holliday is so pivotal to their 2010 roster is there is a steep plummet from the class of Holliday and Jason Bay to the other free agents out there this winter. Not one of them is an obvious candidate to hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols like either of those top-shelf left fielders would be. Bobby Abreu or Vlad Guerrero may have the name recognition to do so, but they don’t have that everyday, NL look at this point in their careers.

A name in that second or third tier of free agents that intrigues is Xavier Nady, one year removed from a 97-RBI turn with Pittsburgh and the New York Yankees. He lost 2009 to injury, but had back-to-back 20-homer seasons before that. Nady would be an interesting instant-scratch ticket. Some low-risk options could be found in the secondary market — the players non-tendered by teams. According to reports, the Florida Marlins are likely to non-tender Jeremy Hermida, a lapsed top prospect, and former Brave outfielder Jeff Francoeur could be set free by the New York Mets. Not the big-splash, big bat the Cardinals crave for the middle of the lineup. But if they whiff on Holliday it may be where the Cardinals have to go to supplement the in-house candidates and hope lightning strikes left field.

RICK HUMMEL
Give Allen Craig, one of the top power hitters in Class AAA at Memphis, a glove and work him out in left field all spring. His bat may be good enough but possibly not his defense. Otherwise, sign DeRosa, if his wrist is deemed all right, and make him more or less a full-time outfielder.

JEFF GORDON
I would keep Mark DeRosa and play him in the outfield, if it is determined Skip Schumaker is the long-haul solution at 2B. I’m not sure you can find somebody else with solid 20-homer, 80-RBI potential in free agency. This could also open the door for somebody like Allen Craig to get some OF at bats when De Rosa takes some starts at 3B to spell Freese or 2B when Skip gets a break against lefties.

There isn’t much to deal for, say, a Josh Willingham-type. A guy like Xavier Nady could be interesting to rehab.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: What are three keys to the Cardinals securing a Game 1 win tonight?

JOE STRAUSS

1. The Cardinals enjoy an edge in the pitching match-up but need to exploit the advantage by practicing what hitting coach Hal McRae has recently preached: aggressiveness within a tighter strike zone. My thinking is that seeing Skip Schumaker in CF would reinforce that suggestion.

2. Chris Carpenter merely needs to be Carpenter. He has beaten the Dodgers in each of five career starts. He knows that. They know that. The longer he goes, the more obvious the outcome should be to all. His five-and-dive in Cincinnati should leave him in good position for a strong outing tonight.

3. This sounds elementary, but the Cardinals have to more closely resemble the much-improved defensive unit of August than the comedic version that ended the season. Extra outs can neutralize the best pitchers and look to be the Dodgers’ only leverage against Carpenter.

DERRICK GOOLD

1. Chris Carpenter pitching like Chris Carpenter.

2. Ryan Franklin rediscovering his first-half form.

3. The defense waking up from its weeklong, collective and uncharactertistic slumber to play the kind of crisp, sound game that has inexplicably escaped the Cardinals since they clinched.

RICK HUMMEL

1. Carpenter gets to the eighth inning.

2. Franklin closes without incident.

3. Cardinals’ middle infield plays solid defense

JEFF GORDON

1. Chris Carpenter pitches at his very best. If he does that, he can shut down a deep and dangerous Dodgers offense. He and Adam Wainwright are the equalizers.

2. Outfielders not named Matt Holliday need to hit. The run production from the No. 5 spot in the batting order has been sporadic. This would be a great time for Ryan Ludwick to heat up again.

3. Ryan Franklin needs to close. We all saw his lack of sharpness late in the season. But he’s needed now.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the Cardinals regular season winds down, how would you assess Skip Schumaker’s performance this year after transitioning from the outfield to second base?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
I don’t want to get too technical here and bore everyone with a lot of numbers, but Schumaker’s UZR (ultimate zone rating) over the last two or three months has improved to the point where he’s now in the category of being an average second baseman. He still struggles on ground balls hit to his left but is getting to more of them now. And according to the Fielding Bible stats, he’s a plus defender on grounders to his right. He’s also fine when coming straight in on ground balls. Really, considering where Skip started, the progress is impressive. He deserves a lot of credit.

JOE STRAUSS
Schumaker’s transition at second base has been nothing short of remarkable, though rough edges remain to his game. Schumaker may be close to major-league average after spending barely six months at a new position. He still struggles at times with positioning and reading the ball off the bat. The latter reveals itself in his lesser range toward first base. On a ground ball staff, he lags in chances per game. His arm is a plus and he hangs in at second base as well as anybody. Schumaker ranks third in average and second (to Chase Utley) in runs scored, fourth in OBP, seventh in SLG and 10th in RBI. He is not an “impact” offensive player at the position. (Brandon Phillips, Utley and perhaps Dan Uggla are the only ones who fit that description among NL second basemen.) He is a credible one. Past knee problems have diminished Schumaker as a base-stealing threat. He’s attempted only four this season. And his problems against LHP persist. It would be fair to call La Russa’s spring training gamble a success, though those who would describe him as a “plus” defender at his new position are shading reality.

RICK HUMMEL
Schumaker has become an adequate second baseman, at worst, and probably is better than that. His range, especially to his left, may be the weakest part of his game but he is surehanded and, for a second baseman, has a rocket for a throwing arm. Most impressively, he is hitting .302 while playing a foreign position. That’s exactly the average with which he finished last season.

DERRICK GOOLD
A one-word assessment of Schumaker’s shift from outfielder to second base: Essential. The Cardinals’ leadoff hitter’s current run of four consecutive games with at least two hits reinforces the reality that the lineup would be lacking if Schumaker was relegated to No. 4 — or even No. 5 — outfield status and the Cardinals had to wedge into second base another (lesser) hitter. Think of what the offense would have been like before the arrival of, say, Julio Lugo, if Schumaker was part of a rotation in the outfield instead of an everyday presence at second. His play in the field has improved with every month. His arm is a plus. His footwork is better. His instincts are the project. He’s strong to his right, but must improve when going to his left before being considered an above-average infielder. Still, he’s more than good enough with the glove to keep his bat in the lineup. What began as an experiment to help the Cardinals fit another outfielder in the lineup (and another one on the roster) has become a reinvention that will help Schumaker’s career, not unlike Braden Looper’s shift from reliever to starter. Schumaker’s offensive production is a better fit at second, and soon he’ll see the reward of a better salary, too.

JEFF GORDON
What a bonus Skip became for this team. He has become a good second baseman, offsetting the occasional fielding mishap by taking away hits with his strong throwing arm. His range on pop-ups is exceptional, of course, and he adds great value with his relays to the plate. He has settled in nicely as the leadoff hitter and should continue on as a key component for this team for years to come.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The move has gone as well as it possibly could have. Skip’s defense has been solid and his offensive performance is identical to what it was in ’08 when he was a full-time outfielder. There have been mistakes in the field, no doubt, but he’s also made some plays that many second basemen can’t make because of his athleticism and arm strength. Since power is almost always at a premium for outfielders, this move has major career implications for Skip. His consistency and versatility will serve him well long term and combined they make him a solid everyday Major League player.

THE WATERCOOLER

SCENARIO: A major league club opens the season with a pared-down payroll following an offseason in search of “low-hanging fruit” for free agent help. The club’s 99-RBI third baseman from a year ago is still recovering from shoulder surgery. Its former Cy Young-winning pitcher, whom the club said was vital to the success of the rotation this year, is already on the DL again. The team’s defense has committed 19 errors through 20 games. And the club’s manager is shuffling his lineup more than a blackjack dealer to find the right matchups. Through all of this the club finds itself at 14-6 through 20 games and sitting atop the NL Central. That club is the 2009 Cardinals.

QUESTION: Given all these obstacles, and perhaps a few more not mentioned, what do you think is the key to success the Cardinals have had so far this year and is there reason to believe they can sustain a pace anywhere near this?

JOE STRAUSS
Without a doubt the longest question in the history of Round 2. That said, the key to date is the stability of the offensive core, the rotation’s early effectiveness and the bullpen’s solid performance when allowed to pitch in role. (We’ll give the defense a break today.) The take here remains much as it was entering the season: Minus Troy Glaus, the Cardinals will remain solid if their 20 best players remain available. The loss of Chris Carpenter is significant but won’t become magnified unless further attrition occurs. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are experiencing what the Cardinals cannot afford as Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Milton Bradley and Carlos Marmol are all compromised. So far, this season represents a (near) best-case scenario for the Redbirds.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
This will be my shortest answer ever: Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Period. Despite the insane, inexplicable hatred that a faction of bizarre, hopelessly bitter fans have for the manager and pitching coach. Can the Cardinals keep it up? Down to the wire, yes. They’ll be in the hunt in September. And that’s the goal.

DERRICK GOOLD
You mean besides the obvious two-word answer: Albert Pujols? The fuel for the Cardinals’ quick start is offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Cardinals led the league in batting average and were fourth in runs scored, yet this year’s lineup is deeper and has the chance to be better because the production won’t be isolated around the island of Pujols-Ludwick. The Cardinals’ hitting this April has papered-over serious concerns, like the innings the starters are leaving for the work-in-progress bullpen to swallow and the errors that force those same pitchers to pitch around. Even an offense powered by Pujols cannot keep up this current pace. Those flaws will come out.

So the starters have to go deeper into games if the Cardinals are going to remain atop the NL Central, and the defense cannot give away outs to make going deeper into games more difficult. The absence of Chris Carpenter is enough of a challenge for the rotation and bullpen to overcome.

Can the Cardinals keep up this winning percentage? No. Can they slow down and still win the NL Central? It’s bad form to back off preseason predictions (especially three weeks in), so I’ll stick with the answer I gave for the preview section. … Sure. Sure, they can.

RICK HUMMEL
The keys, in no particular order, have been the comeback of Joel Pineiro (4-0), who didn’t win his fourth game until August last year; the emergence of Ryan Franklin from a tangled bullpen as the closer; the insight and, even daring, of manager Tony La Russa to find the right daily combinations in the outfield and at third base; the ability of catcher Yadier Molina and the pitchers to absolutely nullify the opposition’s running game. . . and, of course, Albert Pujols. Nobody else has a player like that and anybody who does will always be a contender. Will the Cardinals play .700 ball? No. Could they win 90 or more games? Yes. Will they? I thought 90 before the season, so I’ll stay with that.

JEFF GORDON
There are three keys to the Cards success:

1) The much-maligned Cards managed investing in pitching, extending Kyle Lohse’s deal a year after doing the same for Joel Pineiro. These two are helping offset Carpenter’s injury. John Mozeliak responded to his bullpen deficiency by buying free agent Dennys Reyes during spring training.

2) The player development is paying off. Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Jason Motte, Chris Perez and Mitchell Boggs are helping the home-grown Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Kyle McClellan and Chris Duncan get the job done.

3) Once again, the team located scrappy, handy utility players in Brian Barden and Joe Thurston.

GERRY FRALEY (National baseball writer for FOXsports.com, Sportingnews.com and USAToday)
Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is blessed with two outstanding coaches in vital positions.

The good work of pitching coach Dave Duncan is well-chronicled. Duncan knows how to get through to distressed pitchers and make them embrace his pitch-to-contact philosophy. This staff will not light up the radar guns, but it will get ground-ball outs.

Batting coach Hal McRae is equally good in his field. He teaches his hitters to use the entire field rather than trying to pull every pitch. A National League scout at last weekend’s series against the Chicago Cubs said McRae’s hitters are unusual in that they can drive the ball to the opposite field. When most hitters use the opposite field, the scout said, they lob the ball for singles. The Cardinals get extra-base hits to the opposite field. They go into tonight’s game leading the National League in average at .296, slugging percentage at .476 and OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) at .854.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: As the Cardinals enter the final three weeks of spring training, the question still remains: Who’s on second? Who do you see manning second base on Opening Day?

JOE STRAUSS
I’ll defer to my more insightful colleagues. So far Schumaker has received a heavy majority of the time at second base. I haven’t heard anyone declare the transfer a success. But if you believe the experiment a work-in-progress or something less, it’s impossible at this point to say who else would take over the position due to spotty chances for others.

If Schu’ doesn’t hold the position, Brendan Ryan has several advocates within the organization. He also has major-league experience. I could see a Ryan-Thurston or Ryan-Schu mix. But it’s a complete jump ball right now.

DERRICK GOOLD
The wiseacre answer is Brendan Ryan, because the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to start a lefty on Opening Day and Ryan is the righthanded-hitting option at the position. But that’s not what you mean, is it? With Skip Schumaker in a groundball rut — though he turned a double play this afternoon — the club is quietly weighing its other options at second. Joe Thurston has done well with little opportunity this spring, and Ryan has the edge in major-league experience. With no interest manifesting in free agents like Mark Grudzielanek and the trade market tight right now, the Cardinals must find an in-house solution. Unable to choose one of the candidates, they will likely choose all of the candidates. Introducing second baseman by committee. Part platoon, part extended audition, part on-the-job training (see: Schumaker), second seems like a hot-potato position. All that means is the wiseacre answer may just be the wise answer: Brendan Ryan.

RICK HUMMEL
On Opening Day, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be throwing a lefthander in Paul Maholm, so I’ll say Brendan Ryan, a righthanded batter, rather than Skip Schumaker or Joe Thurston. But Ryan will not be the regular.

JEFF GORDON
I’ll vote for Skip Schumaker, despite his horrific week. Tony La Russa is a very stubborn man and he REALLY wants this guy in the leadoff spot. He knows that he can double-switch him out of the position every game and sit him against lefties. So he can ease him into the role and make it a lot easier. Brendan Ryan, batting ninth, is an OK option. And Thurston makes the team for sure — and he will get some at bats.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
The Cardinals open the season with four games against Pittsburgh and the Pirates figure to throw three lefties at the Cards, including one on Opening Day. It seems to me that neither Skip Schumaker nor Joe Thurston will be the choice on April 6. Therefore, I’m going with Brendan Ryan as the Opening Day second baseman against lefty Paul Maholm.

That said, I think Thurston is going to emerge as the guy who mans second against right handers. I don’t know how long that’ll last but the vibe I’m getting from Jupiter about Skip at second is not a good one, though Derrick and Joe would certainly have a better read on that than me.

I’d be surprised if the Cards had a “regular” second baseman for at least the first half this season. “Platoon” comes to mind and I’m not talking about Charlie Sheen or Michael J. Fox.

TOM ACKERMAN (Sports anchor on “Total Information A.M.” on KMOX)
I’m going to stick with my selection from an earlier Round Two: Joe Thurston. He looks comfortable at the position and he’s paid his dues. If he can turn a double play and get on base, sign him up.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: The Cardinals return three starting outfielders in All-Star Ryan Ludwick, .300-hitting leadoff batter Skip Schumaker and 20-homer center fielder Rick Ankiel. And that doesn’t even include super-prospect Colby Rasmus. But what about Chris Duncan, who — before injuries set in — hit .273 with 43 home runs and 113 RBIs in 655 at-bats in 2006-07? Appearing healthy again at spring training following two surgeries, manager Tony La Russa says Duncan holds an edge in the crowded outfield due to his big league production. Do you see Duncan as an everyday outfielder over the others, or do you think he’s better utilized as a situational hitter or, perhaps, someday as a DH?

BERNIE MIKLASZ
No manager is better at distributing at-bats than Tony La Russa. That said, he’ll have to play Chris Duncan based on Duncan’s viability. If Duncan returns to the power-hitting form he showed in 2006 and the first half of 2007, he can be a force as a frequent lineup presence against righthanded pithing. But if Duncan is struggling, La Russa will lose credibility by giving him at-bats that should go to others. In a perfect world Duncan would play enough to mash righthanded pitching, but if he’s back into the helpless mode, frankly he’s of little use to this team. It seems to me that La Russa’s biggest headache this season will be finding enough at-bats to justify keeping Colby Rasmus in the major leagues. That’s why I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rasmus start off the year at Triple A. This is a tricky political situation for La Russa because even if Duncan performs well a considerable percentage of the fan base will be crying nepotism and demanding that the lions’ share of the at-bats go to Ankiel, Schumaker and Rasmus — the other lefthanded hittings outfielders.

JOE STRAUSS
The question is almost rhetorical. Of course Little Dunc’ projects better as a DH and a guy who should be protected against lefthanded pitching. But that is not to detract from his short-term value to the Cardinals. He entered last season (we’ll consider ’08 a wash because of injuries) a career .287 hitter vs. RH pitching compared to .209 vs LHP. He averaged a HR every 13.5 at-bats vs RHP compared to one every 32 at-bats vs LHP. In 2007, 20 of his 21 HR came off RHP. He has so far proven a force off the bench with five HRs in his first 53 pinch at-bats. Duncan hit two grand slams in his first 21 career at-bats with the bases loaded. He also has improved against breaking stuff. As a fourth outfielder, Duncan is virtually certain to prove more valuable than when playing frequently with injuries as he has the last two years.

RICK HUMMEL
Ultimately, Duncan would be better as a designated hitter. But obviously he can’t do that in the National League. Remember, he was the best No. 2 hitter in front of Pujols that the Cardinals had. And he will take a walk. He hit almost 45 home runs over two years. If he’s healthy, Duncan belongs in the lineup.

BRYAN BURWELL
I think this is La Russa’s way of reminding the kid Rasmus that the starting CF job is not promised to him and that this is an open competition for all the OF jobs. I can see a healthy Duncan being a starter in LF and batting No. 2.

JEFF GORDON
Chris Duncan could have a breakout offensive season. When healthy, he can mash the ball. He has become a selective hitter. For that breakout to happen here, however, somebody else must get hurt or fail. When Colby Rasmus reaches the Cards outfield — and he will at some point this season — something will have to give. It just will. Ryan Ludwick must get 500 at bats as the team’s second best righthanded power source. Rick Ankiel has unlimited offensive potential and fabulous right-field defensive skills. So he must play, too. Even if Skip Schumaker moves to second base, there will be a surplus once the well-rounded Rasmus arrives to play center field for the next 10 years.

If everybody hits this spring and stays healthy, then John Mozeliak will have to deal either Duncan or Ankiel for other commodities. With Jon Jay, Brian Barton, Daryl Jones and others on the climb as well, a massive outfield logjam is forming.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

CROSS ROBERTS OFF LIST: For those Cardinal fans that have been opining for the team to make a run at Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts, it appears he’s off the market. Roberts confirmed to the Baltimore Sun this morning that he’s on the brink of signing a four-year, $40 million extension with the Orioles. Let’s be real here anyway … recent history has shown that the Cardinals would never commit that kind of jack to a second baseman. So what can Cards fans hope for with the team’s second base situation? They can hope Jose Oquendo coaches his tail off this spring and can have someone ready to man the middle infield by early April.

GRIFFEY GOES TO GREATS: Struggling to make a choice between playing for the Atlanta Braves or the Seattle Mariners this season, Ken Griffey Jr. picked up the phone and called Hall of Famers Willie Mays and Hank Aaron for advice, according to an ESPN.com report.

Griffey’s agent, Brian Goldberg, told ESPN that both players advised Griffey to consider his long-term legacy when making the decision. “Willie hit on it a little harder, but they both said, ‘You have to do what you want to do,’” Goldberg said. “They told him, ‘You might have to make some short-term sacrifices. But the bottom line is, Go by how you want to be remembered for the next 50 years after you’re done.’” Griffey ultimately chose the Mariners, heading back to the place where he began his career.

First, how cool would it be to call Willie Mays and Hank Aaron for life advice? Second, how refreshing is it that money didn’t seem to factor into the equation? Third, how nice is it to hear someone talking about a player’s legacy without using the word “steroids”?

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THINGS TO PONDER

JUST ONE MORE BOUNCE: The new, calmer, more Zen-like approach to observing the Blues paid off last night. Rather than flipping the game off in disgust when the Blues fell behind 4-1 in the second period, I stayed tuned through the intermission to see how they would respond in the third. I was rewarded by witnessing a team play with desperation — bringing a much stronger forecheck and funneling the puck to the net. In fact, the shorthanded goal by Alex Steen and the followup goal by T.J. Oshie with four minutes remaining actually had me thinking the Blues had a chance to garner a point. My mind was trying to tell me that after losing so many points in the closing minutes this year, perhaps this was the night to see it reversed. Alas, the Blues couldn’t get that one lucky bounce a team sometimes needs.

Coach Andy Murray was rightfully upset with how the Blues opened the game; particularly how the team reacted to the early penalty on Barret Jackman (which led to a PP goal) and Steve Wagner’s defensive gaffe (which led to another goal). Down 2-0 on the road in the first period just isn’t where you want to be.

I’m no Blues apologist, but like I said in this space last week, for the rest of this season I’m trying to look through the rose-colored glasses of the future. And what I saw in the third period was a team that didn’t give up, and for those fans that stayed tuned in, a little excitement before the final buzzer.

HOW TOUGH ARE HOCKEY PLAYERS? This tough. Ottawa Senators captain Daniel Alfredsson had his jaw fractured when he was hit in the face by a puck Wednesday night during his team’s 3-2 overtime loss to Colorado. Alfreddson, who’s no youngster at age 36, left the game for X-rays but returned to finish the third period and overtime. Now that the Senators know his jaw is broken, how long will he be out? At least a week, according to the club. A week. I know that’s a minimum, but if I fractured my jaw I’d spend at least a week on the couch downing pain killers and watching Jerry Springer … much less thinking about getting back on the ice to get slammed around just seven days later. Can you imagine a pro baseball player coming back from a broken jaw in a week? No, me neither.

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NUMBER OF THE DAY

No. 2 — Who will the Rams take with No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft? Hard to say depending on the strategy of new GM Billy Devaney. Do you go with best player available, greatest need, skill position … so many different ways to look at it. But in honor of the NFL Combine kicking off today, I thought I’d update you on Scout.com’s 2009 draft rankings as of today. Check it out and see if it changes your opinion on who the Rams should take.

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: It’s been stated that top prospect Colby Rasmus will have a legitimate shot to compete for the starting center field job this season. However, the Cardinals outfield looks mighty crowded. Barring a trade of one of the current outfielders, is there a possibility that the arrival of Rasmus could be delayed because of the outfield surplus?

JOE STRAUSS
Much depends on Raz’ performance this spring. TLR is on record saying Rasmus is the kind of talent you move others to accommodate. However, if Rasmus’ performance falters or looks physically limited, the club doesn’t have to include him on its opening day roster. Indeed, there are reasons to delay his arrival by 4-6 weeks, i.e. delaying service time for purposes of arbitration and free agency. That said, I believe the Cardinals will move an OF this spring. I would expect Skip Schumaker to be most vulnerable. He hit .302 in 540 ABs last season and proved an effective leadoff guy. He’s a plus OF. He’s cheap. Ironically, if the Cardinals didn’t have Raz’ on the way, Schu would be a strong fit.

RICK HUMMEL
If the Cardinals don’t trade one of their current outfielders, Rasmus might have to start the season at Class AAA Memphis. I don’t see him being a part-time player here at the start of the season. But I do expect to see one of the outfielders ultimately dealt.

DERRICK GOOLD
Unless he has a dazzling spring training that is exactly what will happen. Last spring, we heard manager Tony La Russa describe how Rasmus had to out-play one of the other outfielders to win a job, and though he did out-play some of the outfielders who made the 25-man roster, outfielders like Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel and Skip Schumaker had far superior springs than Rasmus, who did lead the Grapefruit League in walks. This winter we’ve been treated to a slightly enhanced stance from La Russa.

Rasmus has the talent to “elbow” others aside. When he’s ready to play for the Cardinals, the Cardinals will be ready for him, La Russa has said. The opportunity is there for Rasmus. It could be center field that he wins. It could be the leadoff spot that he wins. But he’ll have to put up the numbers or be crunched by them. Then it’s Memphis, ahoy!

JEFF GORDON
If Colby has a great spring he should make the team. I don’t believe the Cardinals will hold him back because of the outfield surplus. That situation will be addressed anyway. John Mozeliak will have to trade an outfielder this spring, unless somebody gets hurt — or unless Skip Schumaker and Joe Mather end up on the infield.

DAN O’NEILL
I think it’s most probable Rasmus will start the season at Memphis, barring a spring training trade. However, should he look the part in spring, perhaps the Cardinals should move lefthanded-throwing Ryan Ludwick to third base. That would offset the fact that they have a righthanded-throwing first baseman in Albert Pujols, and there would be balance once more in the universe.

Or, given the possibly vulnerable makeup of the pitching staff, and given the team currently is almost devoid of infielders, maybe the Cardinals should play to their strength. They could forego starting a third baseman or a second baseman and start five outfielders.

Think of it. The Radical Redbirds will have a lineup that includes the pitcher batting eighth and five outfielders. We may not get to the World Series, but we’ll be tough to beat in slow-pitch softball.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

TOM BRADY JUMPS THE SHARK: When photographs popped up this week of Gisele Bundchen hand-feeding Tom Brady at poolside, Boston Globe columnist Dan Shaughnessy decided his tolerance for the golden boy’s “sweetness” had worn off.

“You simply cannot have your quarterback being fed like an infant at poolside,” Shaughnessy writes. “Remember, people — this is a football player we’re talking about. This is your quarterback. Think there’s any photographic evidence of Johnny Unitas being spoon-fed? Bet Slingin’ Sammy Baugh’s wife never tried to sling any hash into his mouth.”

You’ve got to read the column and take a peak at the photographs to truly appreciate this one. Brady may never be the same. (Until he wins another Super Bowl, that is.)

HOCKEYTOWN STRIKES AGAIN: Many wonder how the Detroit Red Wings can put up such dominant teams year in and year out. They have a roster full of explosive names yet somehow manage to remain under the salary cap. A smart and creative front office has certainly helped the cause.

Take the announcement expected later today that stud winger Henrik Zetterberg is being locked up in a 12-year, $72 million contract. Zetterberg, who scored 92 points in 75 games last season, is still only 28 years old, and is playing in what is likely the early prime years of his career. Sure, the Wings may be overpaying a little at $6 million per season near the end of Zetterberg’s contract, but they also get one of the games best players for only $6 million per season through his prime years.

I can think of a lot of guys making $6 million per year right now that can’t hold a candle to Zetterberg … much less what Zetterberg likely will produce in the years ahead. So that’s how the Red Wings do it.

On a brighter note, Blues fans at least get to see a talent like Zetterberg play plenty of times in coming seasons, as he’ll be a fixture right here in the Western Conference Central division for years to come. The Wings made sure of that.

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SOMETHING TO PONDER

THE RETURN OF MRS. DOUBTFIRE: Surly Scotsman Colin Montgomerie has been named captain of Europe’s Ryder Cup team for next year’s competition in Wales. Lucky for Capt. Monty the match is being played across the pond, as he’s often been a focal point of fan derision while playing in the States. One notable example came at the 1997 U.S. Open, where Montgomerie — who carries a few pounds around the middle and has rosy red cheeks — was serenaded by fans calling him Mrs. Doubtfire, based on his resemblance to the cross-dressing character played by Robin Williams in the movie.

But no one can ridicule Monty’s record in the Ryder. In eight appearances, he has been on the winning side five times. He also has the second-best career record for the European team with 20 wins, nine losses and seven halves.

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THIS DAY IN HISTORY

JAN. 28, 1980 — Hank Aaron refuses Commissioner Bowie Kuhn’s award honoring him for belting his 715th homer, citing baseball’s neglect of retired Negro leaguers. (SOURCE: “This Day In Baseball”)

THE WATERCOOLER
(Post-Dispatch columnists and beat writers share their thoughts on a question of the day.)

Question: With general manager Jim Hendry saying Monday that the Cubs will raise payroll again next season, what chances do the Cardinals have to stay competitive in the NL Central given their projected budget?

JOE STRAUSS
Acquiring a legitimate closer and depth for the rotation should give the Cardinals an expectation of 90 wins. That should compete next season within a division including a financially taxed Houston Astros, a Sheets-less and Sabathia-less Milwaukee Brewers and a still rebuilding Cincinnati Reds team. The Cardinals still appear dependent on the Cubs taking a step back. Budget is secondary to personnel decisions. Kyle Lohse last year proved a much better acquisition than, say, Carlos Silva.

RICK HUMMEL
The Cardinals still will be competitive — if they add starting pitching help themselves. Jake Peavy doesn’t help that Cubs’ offense any and, as you saw, any team with decent right-handed pitching (Los Angeles Dodgers, most recently) can carve up the Cubs’ right-handed hitters.

DERRICK GOOLD
The Cubs having a budget that could be $40 million more than the Cardinals gives them more ability to take risks and a larger margin of error, especially with their pitching. They can gamble on injury risks like Rich Harden and Jake Peavy at such high dollars because the gap in payroll gives them that option. The Cardinals don’t have that luxury and have to hinge their ability to contend on Chris Carpenter being healthy, filling in holes with cost-effective options (i.e., Trever Miller) and having more depth in place. The difference in payrolls comes down to this: Kosuke Fukudome. The Cubs have the ability to paper-over their big-money import’s poor performance with another big-money outfielder. The Cardinals have to get big bangs for their bucks to contend. The Cubs can have a few busts from their bucks and still win the division.

BERNIE MIKLASZ
The spending isn’t the only issue, but clearly the Cubs have a tactical advantage over the Cardinals because of their aggressive expansion of payroll. That said, money isn’t everything. The Cubs have wasted plenty of it by signing the likes of Kosuke Fukudome. But the Cubs have gained the upper hand in this rivalry by putting so much emphasis on starting pitching. The rotation carries the North Siders and the edge will be even more pronounced if Jake Peavy lands at Wrigley. The Cardinals haven’t kept up in the arms race.

JEFF GORDON
This is an interesting scenario. The Cubs will have new ownership soon. So the current regime wants to win in 2009. Why worry about the future? The next owner may want his own guys. The Cardinals are taking a longer view. Bill DeWitt is stressing player development and John Mozeliak is managing his assets for the long haul. These two aren’t going anywhere. But that doesn’t mean the Cards can’t compete in ’09. Thanks to the influx of Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, etc, Mozeliak will be able to assemble a playoff contender for $100 million or less. And thanks to the wild-card rule, the Cards don’t have to fret the Cubs winning 110 games with the Best Team Money Can Buy.

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MIDDAY NEWS AND THOUGHTS

HAVE BATS, WILL TRADE: Joe Strauss reported in this morning’s paper that the Cardinals are poised to deal from a surplus of left-handed hitters created by Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan and top prospect Colby Rasmus. Is there any question which one of those guys Cardinal fans would most like to see go? But you have to know if all the fans see it, other teams see it, also. If John Mozeliak can pull off a trade involving a quality pitcher for Chris Duncan, I say the Cardinals just go ahead and make him GM for life. No, if the team deals, I think it has to involve one of the other outfielders if you want quality in return. More on this situation in our winter meetings blog.

CRY ME A RIVER: Former Cubbie Ron Santo, who was bypassed for election to the Hall of Fame yesterday, says the voting process needs to be changed. “It’s a travesty,” Santo told the Chicago Sun-Times. “When I saw nobody got in again, I go, ‘Whoa, this is wrong.’ They can’t keep going the way they’re going. They’ve got to put a [different] committee out there.”

That’s it, Mr. Santo. Let’s get a different committee. Obviously all 64 living members of the Hall of Fame who make up the Veterans Committee do not understand what it takes to make the Hall. Santo says he’s not just speaking up for himself but for other players also. However, one has to wonder if Santo would be saying anything at all if he were already in the exclusive club. Santo was a nine-time All-Star, won five Gold Gloves and finished his career with 342 home runs and a .277 lifetime batting average. Is that enough to get you in the Hall of Fame? The Veterans Committee says no. End of story.

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A FEW THINGS TO PONDER

IT’S ALL GOOD: Yesterday in this forum I lamented the fact that I wasn’t going to get to see T.J. Oshie play alongside the other Baby Blues at the Scotty last night. While I didn’t get to see Oshie, I did see history in the making. Three things you’ll never again see happen in the same night at a Blues game: 1) The Blues score 6 goals; 2) B.J. Crombeen corrals a hat trick; and, 3) Alex Steen is on the ice and actually does something (goal and assist.) I know, I know, why do I have to say something negative the day after the Blues finally climb above .500? Perhaps it’s because I expected Steen to have a Brad Boyes-like transformation once he arrived in St. Louis and, up until last night, he seemed to be a total non-factor since coming over in the Lee Stempniak trade. But let me put a positive spin on it and say: Here’s hoping last night was the beginning of a good run for Steen.

(By the way, Blues fans, Jeremy Rutherford is feeling a bit threatened by the deluge of traffic the new Round Two blog is getting. So in the holiday spirit, I implore you to visit his Morning Skate blog to get him more “hits” than Round Two.)

STICKING IT TO THE LITTLE GUY: The NFL announced today that it is cutting more than 10 percent of its headquarters staff in response to the downturn in the nation’s economy. That’s about 150 jobs lost. I’m thinking if you took the salaries of guys like Pacman Jones and Plaxico Burress and gave it to the league, not only could you save those 150 jobs, but you could probably go on a hiring binge. Perhaps I’m just edgy because of all the jobs being lost at A-B and around the country in general, but the huge salaries paid to some guys who don’t care about all of “us” who actually pay their salaries just peeves me. I thought you were supposed to become more conservative as you got older, and here I am talking like Karl Marx. But I’m just sayin’ …

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STAT OF THE DAY

3.18 – Assuming the Cubs land Jake Peavy, that would be the combined 2008 ERA of the team’s rotation. That’s a lower team ERA than any individual ERA on the Cardinals’ staff not named Carpenter … who threw only 15.1 innings last season. By pursuing Peavy, the Cubs are clearly climbing the ladder to the top of the tree, bypassing all the low-hanging fruit.